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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Another split-slate Wednesday rolls around, and we’ll have a six-game main slate over on DraftKings and a nine-game slate on FanDuel, with the latter including the three matchups in the 6 o’clock ET window. Pitching is on the weaker side today, especially compared to yesterday’s loaded slate, but there are still enough viable arms to work with. On the offensive side, we’ll have plenty of stack-worthy teams to choose from as well. Outside of some low-end delay risk in a few spots, the weather should be mostly cooperative. Let’s jump into it. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣8/12 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts. Note: I’m not a meteorologist so don’t treat these forecast previews as gospel! It’s always best to run a pre-game weather check for any at-risk games.

Weather Key: 🟡 Chance for delay | 🟠 Elevated delay / PPD risk | 🔴 High PPD risk
🔵 Favorable for pitchers (cold/wind in) | 🟢 Favorable for hitters (warm/wind out)

• CLE at DET (6:40 ET, 8.0 O/U):  FD slate only. Most of the heavier rain should stay south of Detroit, though a few scattered showers or storms could pop up around the area. If one develops over the ballpark, a delay could come into play, but the more likely outcome is that they avoid any issues.

• CHC at WAS (6:45 ET, 9.5 O/U): FD slate only. Some storms could move into the area later this evening, but they’re currently expected to arrive after the game. Can’t completely rule out a late-inning delay if something arrives earlier than expected, but the overall risk looks pretty low.

• SEA at NYY (7:05 ET, 8.5 O/U): Rain is expected to move into the area later tonight, but it should hold off until after the game. Little concern here unless the timing changes.

• NYM at ATL (7:15 ET, 8.5 O/U): The usual summertime Atlanta pop-up storm risk is around, but coverage looks very isolated this evening. There’s always a chance something develops in the wrong spot, but the odds of any meaningful weather issues are low. Mid-80s temps with light winds OUT to left.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Bryce Miller (RHP), SEA | DK: $9.7k, FD: $8.6k | at NYY

Miller was a certified magician to begin the season, posting an elite 1.71 ERA, 2.63 xFIP, 0.66 WHIP, .166 BAA, .409 opp OPS, 33.2% kRate, and 2.7% BB% across his first nine starts. However, things have unraveled since then. Over his last five outings, Miller owns a 5.81 ERA, 5.52 xFIP, 1.52 WHIP, .278 BAA, .845 opp OPS, 14.3% kRate, and 8.4% BB%. Slumps happen to everyone, but that’s pretty close to a "falling off a cliff" type of nosedive. There haven’t been any reports of a lingering injury or anything else that would clearly explain the downturn, so we’ll just have to play the waiting game and see if Miller can rediscover that dominant early-season form.

Most wouldn’t think of the Yankees as a "get-right" matchup, but they truly haven’t been very effective against RHPs lately, and they’re still playing without three key hitters with Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, and Giancarlo Stanton all currently on the IL. Against righties over the last two weeks (307 PAs), New York ranks 24th or worse in AVG (.190), OPS (.630), wOBA (.280), and wRC+ (78) while posting the fourth-highest kRate (26.4%). Miller is undoubtedly a tough pitcher to trust in his current form, particularly at a fairly steep $9,700 price tag on DraftKings. But the Yankees’ depleted lineup and recent struggles against RHPs create a legitimate opportunity for him to get things back on track, and we already know the sort of ceiling Miller possesses when he’s pitching at his best.

Tyler Mahle (RHP), ATL | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8k | vs. NYM

Reminder: Monitor weather here.

Mahle made quite the splash in his Braves debut last Friday against the Yankees, putting together arguably his best performance of the season. He tossed six shutout innings on 92 pitches, allowed just five baserunners (3 H, 2 BB), and racked up nine strikeouts. Mahle didn’t get off to the smoothest start with the Giants this season but, since returning in late June from a roughly one-month absence due to a hamstring strain, he has been a rock-solid starter. Across those eight outings (44.0 IP), he owns a respectable 3.27 ERA, 3.86 xFIP, 1.14 WHIP, .220 BAA, .634 opp OPS, and 23.0% kRate while allowing just three home runs (0.61 HR/9). Mahle has also displayed some drastic home/road splits this season, posting a 2.65 ERA at home compared to a 7.07 ERA on the road. Whether or not that trend carries over to his new home in Atlanta remains to be seen, but it’s a sizable enough difference to at least be worth mentioning.

There aren’t any major concerns with the matchup either. The Mets have been a fairly average offense against RHPs lately, as evidenced by their 95 wRC+ (ranks 16th) over the past two weeks (380 PAs), paired with a 23.4% kRate (10th-highest). There’s also a little BvP history working in Mahle’s favor. Across 41 PAs against the current Mets roster, he has held them to a .237 AVG and .302 wOBA while producing a quality 26.8% kRate and 4.9% BB%. On a slate without many heavy favorites, the Braves also check in with strong -174 ML odds, providing Mahle with some real win equity. Given the overall lack of appealing pitching options today, Mahle makes plenty of sense as a mid-range target.

Eric Lauer (LHP), LAD | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.9k | vs. KC

There really isn’t much to like about the value pitching tier today, but a case can be made for Lauer as a viable SP2 on DraftKings. He got rocked his last time out against the Cubs (4.0 IP, 11 H, 2 HR, 6 ER), and he possesses very little strikeout upside. What he does have, however, is strong win equity (Dodgers -207 ML) and a realistic path to a 15-20 DKFP type of performance. Lauer has also posted a solid 3.72 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 84.7% Left-on-Base% over his last ten games (55.2 IP). Those numbers are backed by an ugly 5.28 xFIP and paired with a weak 13.7% kRate, so there are certainly some red flags under the hood.

The Royals have been scrappy through the first two games of this series, losing both by a single run. However, they’ve also had their hands full against a pair of lefty aces in Tarik Skubal and Blake Snell. Lauer, of course, is nowhere near the caliber of those two southpaws, but he could still take advantage of Kansas City’s lackluster production against LHPs lately. Over the past month against lefties, the Royals rank 20th or worse in AVG (.223), OPS (.664), wOBA (.294), and wRC+ (83) while posting an above-average 24.2% kRate. A quality start (6.0+ IP, ≤ 3 ER) is well within reach for Lauer tonight, and anything in the neighborhood of three-to-five strikeouts would be icing on the cake. At $6,500 on DraftKings, we don’t need him to be spectacular for him to pay off as a value SP2.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Ranger Suarez (LHP), BOS | DK: $9k, FD: $9.4k | at TOR

Will Warren (RHP), NYY | DK: $8k, FD: $8.4k | vs. SEA

FanDuel Main Slate Only

Framber Valdez (LHP), DET | $9,000 | vs. CLE

Janson Junk (RHP), MIA | $7,600 | vs. PIT

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

I’ll be keeping this section short today with an overview of some favorable stacks from suggested offenses in promising spots.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Daniel Lynch IV (LHP) & Royals Bullpen

Texas Rangers vs. George Klassen (RHP), LAA

FanDuel Main Slate Only Stack

Chicago Cubs vs. Jackson Kent (LHP), WAS

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Boston Red Sox vs. Jose Soriano (RHP), TOR

Every hitter in the confirmed Red Sox lineup checks in under 10% pOwn%.

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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