Top MLB DFS Plays & Props 7/21 | Taking Down a Tricky Tuesday Slate! ⚾

Tuesday, July 21st ⚾️ DFS Plays & Props for Today's MLB Action

Author

Ryan Humphries
July 21, 2026

Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter/X and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Another busy evening of baseball awaits with a dozen games on the main slate! Originally, this slate featured 13 games, but the Pirates/Yankees matchup was postponed due to inclement weather, so make sure you don't accidentally leave any players from that game in your lineups. This also looks like a slate that leans toward the bats, with seven games carrying over/unders of at least nine runs. As a result, pitching feels a bit trickier than usual, as there aren't many arms you can feel truly confident in. Then again, yesterday's slate featured plenty of strong pitching options, and very few of them actually came through with quality performances. That's baseball, baby! Let's jump into today's action and see what we can put together. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣7/21 Dinger Report💣

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts. Note: I’m not a meteorologist so don’t treat these forecast previews as gospel! It’s always best to run a pre-game weather check for any at-risk games.

Weather Key: 🟡 Chance for delay | 🟠 Elevated delay / PPD risk | 🔴 High PPD risk
🔵 Favorable for pitchers (cold/wind in) | 🟢 Favorable for hitters (warm/wind out)

  • PIT at NYY (7:05 ET, 9.5 O/U): Just a reminder that this game has been postponed.

  • BAL at BOS (7:10 ET, 8.5 O/U): This is the one game we'll need to monitor closely. A line of stronger storms should stay west of Boston until later tonight, but scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of that line could still create problems. If one of those storms forces an early delay, the heavier rain later this evening could put the rest of the game in real jeopardy. There is still a path to this game playing cleanly if they can dodge the early storms, but it's one worth checking closer to first pitch.

  • SD at ATL (7:15 ET, 9.0 O/U): Warm temps but winds around 10 mph will be blowing IN from center, creating more of a neutral environment.

  • DET at CHC (8:05 ET, 8.0 O/U): A few light showers could pass through the area, but they currently don't look significant enough to cause a delay. Winds IN from left around 10-15 mph, which is a downgrade to bats at the wind-sensitive Wrigley Field.

  • WAS at COL (8:40 ET, 13.0 O/U): The forecast looks favorable despite a few showers in the general area, with most of the rain expected to hold north of the ballpark. Warm temperatures and 10-15 mph winds blowing OUT to center create another outstanding hitting environment at Coors Field.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Chase Burns (RHP), CIN | DK: $11.5k, FD: $10.5k | at SEA

Burns represents the premier arm on the slate, so he'll naturally command plenty of attention. He's been outstanding this season, posting a 2.54 ERA, 3.60 xFIP, 1.11 WHIP, 28.6% kRate, 14.1% SwStr%, and 114 Pitching+ across 18 starts (102.2 IP). He's another flamethrower (97.8 mph average fastball velocity, 93rd percentile) who could benefit from the extra rest provided by the All-Star Break, as this will be his first start in 13 days. We saw Jacob Misiorowski have his outing cut short yesterday (65 pitches, 4.0 IP) following the extended layoff, but he had been dealing with arm fatigue before the break, so that wasn't entirely surprising. Burns, meanwhile, has shown no indication of facing any workload restrictions and should also be riding high after signing a seven-year, $105 million extension over the break. He'll also be taking the mound at the pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park. While his home and road ERAs have been fairly similar, Burns has seen his kRate jump from 23.9% at home to 33.2% on the road, while his xFIP drops from 4.49 to 2.75. Those splits come from nearly identical samples of just over 50 innings apiece.

The matchup doesn't present many concerns either. Against RHPs over the last month, the Mariners rank dead last in AVG (.212) and OPS (.625) while sitting 29th in wOBA (.281), 28th in ISO (.122), and 24th in wRC+ (83). Their 22.7% kRate in those splits is also slightly above league average. This is one of just two games on the slate carrying an over/under below eight runs and, by all indications, it shapes up as a likely low-scoring affair.

Drew Rasmussen (RHP), TB | DK: $9.7k, FD: $9.2k | at TOR

Rasmussen stumbled into the All-Star Break, allowing 11 combined runs over 7.1 innings against the Astros and Yankees. Before those two outings, however, he had been in dominant form. Across his five June starts (33.0 IP), Rasmussen posted an exceptional 0.82 ERA, 2.69 xFIP, 0.61 WHIP, .142 BAA, .179 opp wOBA, .387 opp OPS, 32.5% kRate, and 3.3% BB%. With nearly two weeks off to reset, we'll see if Rasmussen can pick up where he left off before those final two starts of the first half.

The Blue Jays don't feature a ton of swing-and-miss, but they also haven't been very productive against right-handed pitching lately. Over the last month, they rank dead last in both wOBA (.280) and wRC+ (77) against RHPs while posting a .225 AVG (23rd), .632 OPS (28th), and .127 ISO (26th). Rasmussen's final two starts before the break may steer some people elsewhere, but we know the upside is there, and he profiles as an excellent tournament pivot away from some of the higher-owned options on the slate. He's also already turned in two quality starts (6.0+ IP, ≤ 3 ER) against Toronto this season, so we'll look for him to make it three tonight.

Brandon Sproat (RHP), MIL | DK: $7.3k, FD: $7.2k | vs. NYM

Value pitching is fairly thin on this slate, but Sproat has shown enough upside to make him an intriguing tournament option if you're looking to save some salary. The results have been encouraging over his last six starts, as he has posted a 3.21 ERA, 3.52 xFIP, 1.00 WHIP, .184 BAA, .633 opp OPS, and 29.5% kRate. Sproat entered the season as Milwaukee's No. 3 prospect and the No. 39 overall prospect in baseball (per FanGraphs). After working through some early growing pains, he's beginning to show why he was so highly regarded. On a slate without many heavy favorites, the Brewers (-136 ML) also carry the third-best moneyline odds, so if Sproat can work five or more innings, he'll have a solid chance of picking up the win bonus as well.

The Mets also become a more favorable matchup away from Citi Field. Their 3.79 runs per game on the road ranks as the second-lowest mark in MLB and, against right-handed pitching on the road since the beginning of June, New York has managed just a .227 AVG, .688 OPS, 89 wRC+, and 24.7% kRate. The combination of salary relief and strikeout upside makes Sproat a worthwhile gamble in tournaments today.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Kyle Bradish (RHP), BAL | DK: $9k, FD: $9.4k | at BOS (Monitor weather)

Walbert Urena (RHP), LAA | DK: $8.6k, FD: $8k | vs. STL

Framber Valdez (LHP), DET | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.6k | at CHC

Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA | DK: $7.6k, FD: $7.7k | vs. CIN

Matthew Liberatore (RHP), STL | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7.8k | at LAA

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Washington Nationals vs. Michael Lorenzen (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Carson Palmquist (LHP), WAS

Non-Coors Stacks

Atlanta Braves vs. Walker Buehler (RHP), SD

The sample size is still small, but the Braves have come out of the All-Star Break swinging some scorching hot bats. Over their first four games of the second half (159 PAs), they rank first in MLB in OPS (1.010), wOBA (.427), ISO (.298), and wRC+ (171), while posting the second-best AVG (.326). They managed only three runs on four hits in last night's series opener, but tonight's matchup against Walker Buehler is an appealing bounce-back spot. Across his three July starts, Buehler has stumbled to a 16.36 ERA, 6.78 xFIP, 2.36 WHIP, .340 BAA, .511 opp wOBA, 1.140 opp OPS, 4.90 HR/9, 18.3% kRate, and 15.0% BB%.

If Atlanta can chase Buehler early, they'll also get a crack at a Padres bullpen that has posted a 5.36 ERA, 4.73 xFIP, 1.44 WHIP, and 1.63 HR/9 over the last month. This stack does lean on some smaller sample sizes, but the Braves' recent offensive surge, Buehler's rough stretch, and San Diego's bullpen struggles combine to make Atlanta one of the more intriguing stacks on the slate.

Favorite ATL Bats: Drake Baldwin, Michael Harris II, Matt Olson

Bargain Bats: Austin Riley, Mauricio Dubon, Brewer Hicklen, Jim Jarvis

Houston Astros vs. Tyler Phillips (RHP), MIA

The Astros have been swinging the bats well against right-handed pitching. Over their last 10 games in those splits (244 PAs), they rank fourth or better in OPS (.825), wOBA (.351), ISO (.245), and wRC+ (127) while posting the fifth-lowest kRate (18.4%). That sets up nicely against Tyler Phillips, who opened the season in the bullpen before moving into the Marlins' rotation in late May. Phillips has been excellent when pitching in Miami (1.41 ERA, .215 BAA, .278 opp wOBA, 21.4% kRate), but it's been a much different story on the road, where he owns a 6.53 ERA, .279 BAA, .369 opp wOBA, and just an 11.7% kRate while averaging 96.0% fewer FPPG. Over the last month, he also ranks in the bottom fifth percentile in average exit velocity allowed (93.3 mph) and the bottom 10th percentile in barrels allowed (7).

If Houston continues to square the ball up the way they have against righties lately, Phillips' road struggles could resurface in a hurry. The Marlins' bullpen hasn't offered much resistance either, posting a 5.11 ERA over the last month, giving the Astros plenty of upside throughout the game.

Favorite HOU Bats: Yordan Alvarez, Jeremy Peña, Jose Altuve

Bargain Bats: Isaac Paredes, Christian Walker, Taylor Trammell

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Athletics vs. Kohl Drake (LHP), ARI

Every hitter in the projected Athletics lineup checks in below 10% projected ownership. The A's haven't hit left-handed pitching particularly well lately and are still without several key bats, including Nick Kurtz, Zack Gelof, and Brent Rooker, the latter of whom is done for the season. Even so, they'll have some appeal against Kohl Drake, who will be making his MLB debut at 26 years old tonight. Drake hasn't fared well at Triple-A Reno this season, posting a 6.92 ERA, 5.74 xFIP, 1.64 WHIP, .280 BAA, 19.3% kRate, and 10.0% BB% across 66.1 innings. He's also stranded just 56.0% of baserunners, and making the jump to the majors is no easy task, even against an offense that has been inconsistent of late. Arizona's injury-depleted rotation has forced Drake into this spot, and if his command wavers early, this could turn into a long night.

Favorite ATH Bats: Shea Langeliers, Jacob Wilson, Tyler Soderstrom

Bargain Bats: Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (if he plays), Tommy White, Jonah Heim

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