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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

A busy baseball Wednesday is upon us and, depending on your DFS site of choice, the main slate ahead will look considerably different. DraftKings features a seven-game main slate beginning at 7:07 ET, while FanDuel includes four additional games in the 6 o'clock window but excludes the second game of the CHC/NYM doubleheader (which is included on DK). That leaves FanDuel with a 10-game main slate beginning at 6:40 ET. As a result, only six games are shared between the two sites today, and those mutual matchups will serve as the primary focus for the pitcher and stack spotlights in this newsletter. Let's dive in. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣6/24 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts. Note: I’m not a meteorologist so don’t treat these forecast previews as gospel! It’s always best to run a pre-game weather check for any at-risk games.

Weather Key: 🟡 Chance for delay | 🟠 Elevated delay / PPD risk | 🔴 High PPD risk
🔵 Favorable for pitchers (cold/wind in) | 🟢 Favorable for hitters (warm/wind out)

• NYY at DET (6:40 ET, 7.0 O/U): FD main slate only. Rain is very likely in Detroit this evening, though current forecasts suggest it will mostly consist of light rain and intermittent sprinkles. If both teams are willing to play through the damp weather, this game has a decent chance to get in. However, any sort of delay would be a concern.

• PHI at WAS (6:45 ET, 9.5 O/U): FD main slate only. Around 80 degrees with light winds blowing OUT.

• LAD at MIN (7:40 ET, 8.0 O/U): A few raindrops may be around, but no significant weather concerns are expected and a delay is unlikely. Winds blowing OUT to center at around 10 mph should provide a slight boost to bats.

• ARI at STL (7:45 ET, 9.0 O/U): Some scattered showers and storms are expected to move through the area during the late afternoon and again later in the evening. That should leave a fairly sizable window to play this game uninterrupted. It's still worth double-checking the radar closer to first pitch, but conditions currently look favorable.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Gage Jump (LHP), ATH | DK: $8.8k, FD: $10.7k | at SF

The Athletics' top pitching prospect has found plenty of success through his first five MLB starts, pitching to a 2.37 ERA, 3.11 xERA, 0.99 WHIP, and 22.0% kRate across 30.1 innings while posting a strong 107 Stuff+ rating. He has yet to allow a home run as well. Jump has also flashed some excellent Statcast metrics, highlighted by a 36.1% Chase% (93rd percentile), 2.5% Barrel% (98th percentile), and 29.6% HardHit% (94th percentile). He enters tonight's start on the heels of his best MLB outing to date, tossing seven scoreless innings on 107 pitches against the Angels last Thursday while allowing just four baserunners (1 H, 3 BB) and striking out seven.

The Giants enter this matchup hitting left-handed pitching well over the last month, posting a .266 AVG, .792 OPS, and 121 wRC+ during that span. However, as we pointed out yesterday, much of that production has been inflated by a handful of offensive explosions, while San Francisco has still been held to three runs or fewer in 19 of its last 30 games. Their 23.1% kRate against southpaws over the last month also sits slightly above league average, and Oracle Park remains one of the more pitcher-friendly venues in baseball. So, while the Giants have certainly flashed plenty of upside, they have been much more "bust" than "boom" lately, making this another spot where Jump could continue building an impressive rookie-season résumé.

Shane Drohan (LHP), MIL | DK: $6.5k, FD: $6.6k | at CIN

It was a lengthy journey for Drohan to reach the big leagues, but the 27-year-old southpaw has put together some promising results thus far. Across 47.2 innings, Drohan owns a strong 3.40 ERA, 3.15 xERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 23.7% kRate while demonstrating excellent command with a 108 Location+ rating. Most of his appearances this season have come out of the bullpen, but Milwaukee has gradually stretched him out and tonight will mark his fifth consecutive start. Naturally, transitioning from reliever to starter takes time, but Drohan reached a season-high 91 pitches in his last outing, so he should be working with something close to a full workload moving forward.

Drohan will draw a matchup against a Reds offense that has really struggled of late. Over the last two weeks, Cincinnati owns a .196 AVG, .630 OPS, .280 wOBA, 70 wRC+, and 27.3% kRate. The numbers become even uglier if we narrow the sample to the last seven days: .177 AVG, .499 OPS, .223 wOBA, 31 wRC+, and a massive 32.4% kRate. An OPS below .500, a wOBA that resembles a poor batting average, and a strikeout rate north of 30% are all telltale signs of an offense that is caught up in a major slump. With Drohan now essentially fully stretched out and drawing a plus matchup, he brings some very intriguing upside at these mid-$6k price points.

Mitch Bratt (LHP), ARI | DK: $4k, FD: $5.7k | at STL

Rookie left-handers have been a running theme throughout this pitcher section and we'll get a third such arm to close things out. Mitch Bratt makes his MLB debut tonight. He's not an elite prospect by any means, checking in as Arizona's No. 14 prospect according to MLB.com and No. 21 prospect per FanGraphs. However, a couple of injuries in the D-Backs rotation, combined with Bratt's strong performance at Triple-A, have opened the door for this opportunity. Across 11 Triple-A starts this season, Bratt posted a 2.84 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, .191 BAA, 24.7% kRate, and a low 5.2% Barrel%. Bratt is more of a command-and-pitchability lefty than a flamethrower, but he has consistently filled up the strike zone and limited hard contact throughout the minors. The main concern from a DFS standpoint is workload. Those impressive numbers come from just 44.1 innings, meaning Bratt hasn't worked especially deep into games (averaging just over four innings per start), and he threw only 48 pitches across four innings in his most recent minor league outing. That largely takes him out of play on FanDuel, but at the pitcher minimum $4,000 salary on DraftKings, Bratt becomes an intriguing SP2 option in more aggressive roster builds.

When you get a $4,000 starter on DraftKings who is expected to work multiple innings, the matchup becomes somewhat secondary. Still, we'll touch on it briefly. The Cardinals have been fairly middling against left-handed pitching over the last month, posting a .255 AVG (13th), .716 OPS (17th), and 102 wRC+ (12th). They have been extremely difficult to strike out, however, carrying just a 15.3% kRate in those splits. Rolling with a debuting pitcher is always risky, and given the likely pitch count limitations, expecting more than three or four strikeouts from Bratt would be a big ask. But if he can work through four, perhaps even five, respectable innings and finish with around 15 DKFP, that could easily be enough given the roster flexibility he opens up at this salary.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Shohei Ohtani (RHP), LAD | DK: $11.5k, FD: $11.5k | at MIN

Martin Perez (LHP), ATL | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.1k | at SD

FanDuel Main Slate Only

Braxton Ashcraft (RHP), PIT | $10,500 | vs. SEA

Tarik Skubal (LHP), DET | $10,000 | vs. NYY (Monitor weather)

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Rhett Lowder (RHP), CIN

Lowder has been knocked around quite a bit over his last five starts, which has resulted in a 7.85 ERA, 6.23 xFIP, 1.96 WHIP, .398 opp wOBA, and 2.00 HR/9 Rate. His terrible 19.6% BB% has been higher than his kRate (18.5%) in that span, which is never a good sign. He’ll be backed by a Reds bullpen whose 4.74 xFIP over the last month is the fifth-worst mark in MLB.

We talk about it all the time but the Brewers don’t necessarily bring a ton of home run power to the plate. But they have a high OBP, steal bases, and produce runs nonetheless. We generally prefer to target them at home, where they’ve averaged 5.40 runs/gm (2nd in MLB), but they’ve still been the No. 6 road offense this season at 5.00 runs/gm. They’ve put up a strong .785 OPS, .344 wOBA, and 119 wRC+ against RHPs over the last month, as well as an MLB-high 11.3% BB%, which could come in handy against Lowder’s recent struggles with that huge walk rate. Also, against Lowder’s primary pitch mix (sinker, slider, four-seam, changeup), the Brewers have the third-highest average (.264) and fifth-highest wOBA (.341) this season. The Brewers can be a tough stack to get right a lot of times, and they’ve been in a bit of a slump, putting up more than three runs just once in their last six games. But this feels like an excellent spot to target them today.

Favorite MIL Bats: Brice Turang, Jackson Chourio, Christian Yelich, Jake Bauers

Bargain Bats: Cooper Pratt, Garrett Mitchell, David Hamilton

Atlanta Braves vs. JP Sears (LHP), SD

I'll be the first to admit that my Braves have not been good over the last couple of weeks, but the spot here is simply too strong to ignore. JP Sears will be making his first MLB start since the end of last season and, if his Triple-A numbers are any indication, Atlanta should be able to find some success against him. Across 63.2 innings with Triple-A El Paso, Sears has posted a brutal 7.92 ERA, 5.14 xFIP, 1.84 WHIP, .325 BAA, and 1.41 HR/9 rate while failing to miss many bats (20.4% kRate). The Padres have already secured this series and may not be especially aggressive with their bullpen after using six relievers last night when bulk reliever Griffin Canning failed to record even three outs. Mason Miller has also thrown 20-plus pitches in back-to-back games, making it unlikely that he'll be available tonight even if a save situation arises. I won't waste time posting the Braves' recent numbers against lefties, as they range from average to underwhelming across the board. If they can't do damage against the current version of JP Sears, then go ahead and place them on the "do not stack" list for the foreseeable future.

Favorite ATL Bats: Ozzie Albies, Michael Harris II, Drake Baldwin

Bargain Bats: Mauricio Dubon, Eli White, Jorge Mateo

FanDuel Main Slate Only Stacks

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Carson Palmquist (LHP), WAS

Washington Nationals vs. Aaron Nola (RHP), PHI

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Minnesota Twins vs. Shohei Ohtani (RHP), LAD

This is a pretty straightforward leverage stack, with every hitter in the confirmed Twins lineup checking in under 5% pOwn%. Ohtani is arguably the top pitcher on the slate and is likely to command significant ownership any time he takes the mound. That said, he has looked at least somewhat mortal in his last two starts, allowing a combined six runs to the Rays and Pirates. Those certainly weren't blowup outings, but they did serve as a reminder that Ohtani isn't invincible. Behind him sits a Dodgers bullpen that has sprung some leaks lately, posting a poor 5.34 ERA and 1.85 HR/9 rate over the last month.

The most intriguing aspect of this leverage stack is just how well Minnesota has been swinging the bats against right-handed pitching. Over the last two weeks, the Twins lead MLB in AVG (.324), OPS (.933), wOBA (.401), and wRC+ (156) while also carrying the league's lowest kRate (14.7%). They've added plenty of power as well, posting a strong .230 ISO that ranks 6th in baseball. Granted, they haven't exactly been facing a steady diet of Shohei Ohtani-level arms, but the way they've been punishing right-handed pitching simply can't be ignored.

Favorite MIN Bats: Byron Buxton, Trevor Larnach, Josh Bell

Bargain Bats: Kody Clemens, Victor Caratini, Royce Lewis

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