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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Depending on your site of choice, you'll be looking at either a seven-game (DraftKings) or six-game (FanDuel) main slate. The lone difference is that FanDuel will exclude the second game of the SF/ATL semi-doubleheader after Tuesday's contest was suspended following 1.5 innings. Pitching feels a bit underwhelming at first glance, as there doesn't appear to be any true standout arms on the slate. On the flip side, that should leave us with plenty of viable offenses and stacking paths to explore. Weather will be worth monitoring in a couple of spots, but no major issues are expected at this time.

As for last night's SF/ATL game, it was one of the stranger and most mismanaged weather situations we've seen all season. Had they simply tarped the field and opted for a delayed start, there's a decent chance the game could have been completed without much trouble. Instead, they started on time, allowed the field conditions to deteriorate, and ultimately couldn't get things playable after the worst of the rain moved through. Frustrating outcome for everyone involved, especially DFS players. Anyway, let's move on to today's slate. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣6/17 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts. Note: I’m not a meteorologist so don’t treat these forecast previews as gospel! It’s always best to run a pre-game weather check for any at-risk games.

Weather Key: 🟡 Chance for delay | 🟠 Elevated delay / PPD risk | 🔴 High PPD risk
🔵 Favorable for pitchers (cold/wind in) | 🟢 Favorable for hitters (warm/wind out)

• TOR at BOS (6:45 ET, 9.5 O/U): Fairly warm with 10-15 mph winds blowing OUT to left toward the Green Monster. Plus conditions for bats.

• CWS at NYY (7:05 ET, 8.5 O/U): A few spotty showers are in the area. If one drifts over the ballpark, a delay is possible, but there's also a good chance the game avoids any rain altogether.

• SF at ATL (7:15 ET, 9.0 O/U): Around 80 degrees but 10 mph winds blowing IN from right will knock down flyballs a bit.

• COL at CHC (8:05 ET, 10.0 O/U): A lot of rain moving through this afternoon, but it should be cleared up by gametime. Maybe some slight delay risk if a stray shower lags behind the larger system. Temps are only in the mid-60s but 10-15 mph winds blowing OUT should still boost home run chances at Wrigley.

• PIT at ATH (9:40 ET, 10.0 O/U): 80 degrees at first pitch with 10-15 mph winds OUT to left.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

George Kirby (RHP), SEA | DK: $9k, FD: $9.3k | vs. BAL

Looking solely at the surface stats, Kirby's 6.75 ERA and 1.65 WHIP over his last five starts are pretty ugly. However, he has been getting absolutely crushed by BABIP luck in that span (.393) and his much stronger 3.45 xFIP suggests he has pitched far better than the ERA would indicate. He also just faced this Orioles lineup in his previous outing and turned in one of his better performances of the season, recording 10 strikeouts while delivering a quality start (6.0 IP, 3 ER). As always, facing the same offense in back-to-back starts introduces some additional risk, but returning home to the pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park is certainly a positive.

The Orioles aren't necessarily a great matchup for pitchers but catching them away from Camden Yards is generally the preferred scenario. Baltimore has averaged 5.00 runs per game at home this season (5th in MLB) but just 4.21 runs per game on the road (20th). Against RHPs on the road over the last month, the Orioles have been precisely league average with a 100 wRC+, while their 24.5% kRate in those splits ranks among the highest marks in baseball. As noted in the intro, there aren't many pitchers on this slate that inspire a great deal of confidence, but Kirby finds himself in a favorable spot and should once again bring plenty of strikeout upside if he can replicate the swing-and-miss stuff he generated against Baltimore last week.

Carlos Rodon (LHP), NYY | DK: $8.7k, FD: $10k | vs. CWS

Reminder: Monitor weather here.

Outside of some walk issues, Rodon has looked sharp since making his season debut on May 10th. Across his last five starts, he has posted a 2.70 ERA, 3.98 xFIP, 1.13 WHIP, .172 BAA, 27.8% kRate, and 13.0% BB%. The xFIP is a bit elevated and the walk rate remains less than ideal, but the ERA, strikeout rate, and opponent batting average have all been excellent. Rodon has also done a nice job limiting hard contact, evidenced by a 5.3% Barrel% and 34.7% HardHit% this season – both ranking inside the top quartile among pitchers.

This isn't a pristine matchup, but it isn't one to necessarily avoid either. Against left-handed pitching over the last month, the White Sox have been almost perfectly average, posting a 103 wRC+ that ranks 16th in MLB. More encouragingly, they have generated the fifth-highest strikeout rate (23.7%) against Rodón's primary pitch mix of four-seamer, slider, sinker, and changeup. The Yankees (-192 ML) also enter as the second-heaviest favorite on the slate, giving Rodon a strong chance to earn the win bonus. Assuming the weather cooperates, he profiles as a solid option and a good bet to notch a fourth consecutive quality start while providing plenty of strikeout upside.

Javier Assad (RHP), CHC | DK: $6.3k, FD: $8.6k | vs. COL

Assad's season has taken a winding path. He opened the year in the Cubs' rotation, shifted to the bullpen, spent some time at Triple-A, and now finds himself back in the big league rotation. Across 38.1 innings this season, Assad has posted a respectable 3.99 ERA, 4.25 xFIP, 1.02 WHIP, 16.0% kRate, 6.0% BB%, and 47.4% GB%. He's obviously not the type of pitcher who is going to overwhelm opponents with high-end strikeout ability, but he does an excellent job limiting baserunners and generating ground balls. He's looked particularly sharp since returning from Triple-A, with both appearances coming against the Giants. It's a small 12.1-inning sample, but Assad has recorded a 0.00 ERA, 3.16 xFIP, 0.49 WHIP, .105 BAA, 23.8% kRate, 4.8% BB%, and 64.3% GB% during that stretch. That ground-ball ability could prove especially valuable tonight with 10-15 mph winds expected to be blowing out at Wrigley Field.

While the Rockies still carry a reputation as a lineup to attack, they've actually been fairly competent offensively of late, even away from Coors Field. A recent series in Las Vegas certainly helped boost the numbers, but their 108 wRC+ (a park-adjusted stat) against RHPs over the last month still ranks 13th in MLB, and they've kept strikeouts in check with a 20.3% kRate during that span. So this isn't the pushover matchup it has been in previous seasons. That said, if Assad can continue building on the momentum from his last two outings and the Rockies cool off a bit away from those hitter-friendly environments, he could provide solid value at these salaries. On DraftKings in particular, he stands out as one of the more appealing SP2 options on the slate.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Gavin Williams (RHP), CLE | DK: $9.3k, FD: $11k | at MIL

Brandon Sproat (RHP), MIL | DK: $5.8k, FD: $7.2k | vs. CLE

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Chicago Cubs vs. Sean Sullivan (LHP), COL

The Cubs have been awful against left-handed pitching lately, ranking bottom three in AVG, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ against southpaws over the last month. However, they have run into some poor BABIP luck (.250) during that stretch, so positive regression could be on the horizon. Either way, Sean Sullivan appears to be the type of lefty that Chicago can potentially get right against.

Sullivan has logged just 3.0 MLB innings, which came in his big league debut five days ago. Looking at a larger sample, he has struggled across 11 Triple-A starts this season, posting a 5.60 ERA, 5.45 xFIP, 1.55 WHIP, .292 BAA, and 1.65 HR/9 rate over 54.2 innings. Given how heavily taxed the Rockies bullpen has been through the first two games of this series, Sullivan could be asked to wear it for a while even if he runs into trouble early. Several Colorado relievers have worked on back-to-back days and may be unavailable tonight. Whenever the Cubs do get into the bullpen, they'll be facing a relief corps that has posted a 6.66 ERA, 1.90 WHIP, .307 BAA, and 1.80 HR/9 rate over the last two weeks. While wind doesn't always translate directly into offense, those 10-15 mph winds blowing out at Wrigley should only help increase the home run potential in this matchup as well.

Favorite CHC Bats: Pete Crow-Armstrong, Michael Busch, Seiya Suzuki

Bargain Bats: Matt Shaw, Miguel Amaya

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Aaron Civale (RHP), ATH

Civale will return from the 15-day IL to make tonight's start after dealing with tendinitis in his throwing shoulder. He wasn't exactly pitching well prior to the injury, posting a 5.40 ERA, 5.64 xFIP, 1.68 WHIP, .317 BAA, .430 opponent wOBA, 13.2% kRate, and 3.20 HR/9 rate across his previous five starts. Home runs have been the biggest issue, but the overall quality of contact has been concerning as well. Civale often struggles to pitch deep into games even when healthy, and that could be especially true in his first start back from the IL. As a result, the Athletics could be forced to lean heavily on a bullpen that enters with a 6.31 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, .290 BAA, and 1.62 HR/9 rate over the last two weeks.

Meanwhile, the Pirates have quietly been one of the more reliable offenses in baseball for much of the season. And against RHPs over the last month, they rank top 10 in AVG (.260), OPS (.782), wOBA (.346), ISO (.180), and wRC+ (118). Strikeouts have been somewhat problematic, as evidenced by a 23.7% kRate during that stretch, but Civale isn't the type of pitcher who typically exploits that weakness. It also helps that Pittsburgh is guaranteed nine innings as the road team while playing in the No. 1 most hitter-friendly ballpark in baseball under favorable hitting conditions. All signs point toward this being one of the stronger stack spots on the slate.

Favorite PIT Bats: Brandon Lowe, Bryan Reynolds, Spencer Horwitz

Bargain Bats: Endy Rodriguez, Jake Mangum, Nick Gonzales, Tyler Callihan

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Seattle Mariners vs. Kyle Bradish (RHP), BAL

Every hitter in the projected Mariners lineup checks in below 10% pOwn%. Bradish is capable of putting together quality outings, but his recent form has been underwhelming. Across his last five starts, he has posted a 4.44 ERA, 4.73 xFIP, 1.63 WHIP, .378 opponent wOBA, 17.9% kRate, and 2.10 HR/9 rate. He also faced this Mariners lineup six days ago in Baltimore and was tagged for five runs on seven hits and three walks while serving up three home runs. Bradish lasted only four innings in that outing.

It doesn't always play out this way, but offenses generally tend to perform better when seeing the same starting pitcher for a second time within the span of a week. Seattle has also been swinging the bats well against right-handed pitching, posting a 114 wRC+ over the last month, which ranks ninth in MLB. There are certainly some drawbacks here. The Orioles bullpen has pitched reasonably well, T-Mobile Park is far from a hitter's haven, and Seattle is dealing with a few lineup injuries. However, if the Mariners continue to project for minimal ownership, they stand out as one of the more appealing leverage stacks on the slate. Even a smaller two- or three-man Seattle stack makes plenty of sense from a tournament perspective.

Favorite SEA Bats: Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh, Luke Raley

Bargain Bats: Dominic Canzone, Colt Emerson, JP Crawford

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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