Top MLB DFS Plays & Props 6/10 | Navigating a High-Scoring Midweek Slate! ⚾

Wednesday, June 10th ⚾️ DFS Plays & Props for Today's MLB Action

Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter/X and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

A little mid-week mayhem is on tap with a seven-game main slate on DraftKings and an 11-game main slate on FanDuel, with the latter including the four games in the 6 o'clock ET window. There are plenty of high totals on the board today with six games carrying over/unders of at least nine runs, including three in the double digits. Pitching feels pretty tricky, especially if we're focusing only on the seven games shared between both sites. That said, there is no shortage of viable offenses and stacks to target. We'll also have to navigate a handful of pesky rain situations, though the current expectation is that no postponements will be necessary. More on that in the lengthy weather section below. Plenty to dig into today, so let's get into it. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Reminder: The top four games are only on the FanDuel main slate!

💣6/10 Dinger Report💣

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts. Note: I’m not a meteorologist so don’t treat these forecast previews as gospel! It’s always best to run a pre-game weather check for any at-risk games.

Weather Key: 🟡 Chance for delay | 🟠 Elevated delay / PPD risk | 🔴 High PPD risk
🔵 Favorable for pitchers (cold/wind in) | 🟢 Favorable for hitters (warm/wind out)

  • SEA at BAL (6:35 ET, 9.0 O/U): FD main slate only. A line of storms should be clearing the area around first pitch. A late start is possible, but no further issues would be expected beyond that. Near 80 degrees and humid with light winds OUT to center. Good hitting weather.

  • LAD at PIT (6:40 ET, 8.5 O/U): FD main slate only. The current expectation is a dry nine innings, but some storms may move into the area later in the evening. If this game runs long, late-inning issues could arise. Mid-80s temperatures, humid conditions, and 10 mph winds OUT to left create some favorable hitting conditions.

  • MIN at DET (6:40 ET, 9.5 O/U): FD main slate only. A few scattered showers or storms could drift through the general area, though there's a decent chance they miss the ballpark entirely. Low-end delay risk. Temperatures near 90 degrees at first pitch, but winds around 10 mph (with occasional stronger gusts) blowing IN from right could work against hitters.

  • STL at NYM (7:10 ET, 8.5 O/U): With a little luck, a line of storms moving through the area could avoid the ballpark altogether. Still, a delay can't be ruled out if the forecast trends in the wrong direction.

  • TEX at KC (7:40 ET, 10.0 O/U): Severe storms are expected to move through the Kansas City area this evening. The exact impact those storms have on this game remains murky, but a delay is certainly possible. A postponement is not currently anticipated. Assuming the game plays, the hitting weather will be excellent with mid-80s temperatures and stiff 15 mph winds blowing OUT to left.

  • ATL at CWS (7:40 ET, 7.0 O/U): Potentially the riskiest weather spot on the slate. A lengthy late start may be required while waiting for a line of storms to clear the area. Be sure to revisit the radar closer to lock for this game, as well as TEX at KC, to get a better sense of how things may unfold. Temperatures around 80 degrees combined with 10-15 mph winds blowing IN from right create a more neutral hitting environment.

  • CHC at COL (8:40 ET, 12.0 O/U): Upper-80s temperatures for much of the game. Another boost to bats in an already elite hitting environment.

  • MIL at ATH (9:05 ET, 14.5 O/U): Las Vegas once again takes center stage. Seventeen home runs have been hit through the first two games of this series, and tonight features the hottest temperatures yet, approaching 100 degrees at first pitch and remaining well into the 90s throughout the evening. Winds around 10 mph will blow mostly left-to-right with a slight push OUT to right at times. It's another obvious spot to target offense.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Chris Sale (LHP), ATL | DK: $11k, FD: $11.4k | at CWS

Reminder: Monitor weather for this game.

When the DraftKings and FanDuel main slates don't align perfectly, I generally focus on the games shared by both sites. Among those seven matchups today, there simply aren't many standout pitching options, which naturally pushes Sale toward the top of the list of preferred SP targets. While he may not be entering in peak form, there is still plenty to like about the 2.37 ERA, 2.80 xFIP, 1.22 WHIP, and 28.5% kRate he has posted over his last five starts. I wouldn't place much stock into any sort of "revenge game" narrative, but Sale should at least be comfortable pitching in a ballpark where he spent the first seven seasons of his MLB career. On a slate filled with favorable hitting environments, the 10-15 mph winds blowing IN at Rate Field should also help suppress some home run potential.

The matchup itself is not quite as appealing as it may have been earlier in the season. The White Sox are still missing a key power bat with Munetaka Murakami on the IL, but as a team, they have posted a .345 wOBA, .196 ISO, and 118 wRC+ against LHPs over the last month. Their 22.6% kRate in those splits also sits closer to league average. However, if we narrow things down to performance against left-handed sliders – Sale's featured pitch, which he has thrown 41.3% of the time – the outlook becomes much more encouraging. Against that offering, Chicago owns a massive 38.0% kRate (2nd-highest in MLB) alongside a .200 AVG. As long as this game avoids a worst-case weather scenario, Sale profiles as arguably the safest pitching option on the slate among the seven games shared between DraftKings and FanDuel.

Reid Detmers (LHP), LAA | DK: $7.5k, FD: $9.9k | vs. HOU

Detmers has lacked consistency this season, but it's difficult to overlook the strikeout upside he has brought to the table, especially of late. While a 14-strikeout performance against the Rangers is certainly doing some heavy lifting in this sample, Detmers has still posted an elite 33.9% kRate across his last five starts. The 4.15 ERA during that stretch may not jump off the page, but it's backed by a much stronger 3.10 xFIP to go along with a 0.99 WHIP and .191 BAA.

Houston isn't a team I've gone out of my way to target with pitching this season, and the Astros have posted a strong 130 wRC+ against LHPs over the last month – the sixth-best mark in MLB. The encouraging news is that they have also struck out at a slightly elevated 23.2% clip in those splits. If we narrow things down to Detmers' primary pitch mix – four-seamer, slider, changeup, and curveball – the Astros' kRate ticks up slightly to 23.8%. More notably, their 31.3% HardHit% against that mix ranks as the third-lowest mark in baseball. Detmers is also coming off one of his more impressive outings of the season, tossing six shutout innings against the Dodgers while allowing just two hits and two walks while striking out six. If he can navigate a lineup as dangerous as Los Angeles', it's reasonable to believe he can find success against Houston as well. Detmers isn't without risk, but the strikeout upside makes him an intriguing option, particularly on DraftKings where his salary remains very manageable.

Andre Pallante (RHP), STL | DK: $6.8k, FD: $9k | at NYM

Reminder: Monitor weather for this game.

Pallante isn't the type of pitcher who is going to overpower opposing lineups, but the results have generally been solid over the last couple of months. Dating back to April 18th (9 GS, 48.2 IP), he has posted a 3.70 ERA, 3.74 xFIP, 1.23 WHIP, .308 opponent wOBA, and 21.6% kRate. His only two truly underwhelming outings during that stretch came against the Cubs and Brewers, two top-10 offenses by most key metrics against righties this season.

Even during their stronger stretches, the Mets have often profiled as a fairly middling offense against right-handed pitching. And, for a large chunk of the year, they’ve firmly performed as a bottom-five offense. Over the last two weeks versus RHPs, they have struck out at a 23.3% clip, the sixth-highest mark in MLB. The matchup also sets up reasonably well from a pitch-mix perspective. Against Pallante's primary offerings – four-seamers, sliders, sinkers, and knuckle curves – the Mets own the eighth-lowest batting average (.240) and fifth-lowest wOBA (.315). Citi Field also remains a pitcher-friendly environment and has been one of the tougher venues in baseball for home runs, even when weather conditions lean in favor of hitters. Pallante's ceiling is admittedly somewhat limited, but a quality start (6.0+ IP, ≤ 3 ER) with a handful of strikeouts is firmly within his range of outcomes this evening.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Davis Martin (RHP), CWS | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10.9k | vs. ATL (Monitor weather)

Jesus Luzardo (LHP), PHI | DK: $8.5k, FD: $8.7k | at TOR

FanDuel Main Slate Only

Shohei Ohtani (RHP), LAD | $11,100 | at PIT

Framber Valdez (LHP), DET | $7,700 | vs. MIN (Monitor weather)

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors & Vegas Stacks

Chicago Cubs vs. Michael Lorenzen (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Shota Imanaga (LHP), CHC

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Jack Perkins (RHP), ATH

Athletics vs. Brandon Sproat (RHP), MIL

Non-Coors/Vegas Stacks

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Max Scherzer (RHP), TOR

Scherzer will be making his first start since April 24th after forearm and ankle injuries landed him on the IL. The results prior to the layoff were ugly. Across five starts, Scherzer posted a 9.64 ERA, 6.25 xFIP, 1.61 WHIP, 11.9% kRate, 3.38 HR/9 rate, and 55.4% FB%. He built up to 73 pitches across 3.2 innings in his most recent rehab outing, so some workload restrictions should still be in place. Even so, it wouldn't be surprising to see him pushed toward the 80-pitch range before turning things over to a Blue Jays bullpen that has been fairly mediocre in recent weeks.

The Phillies' offense hasn't been particularly imposing for much of the season, but the recent trends have been encouraging. It's a small sample, but over the last week they rank inside the top 10 in OPS (.769), wOBA (.338), ISO (.189), and wRC+ (114). The downside is that Philadelphia has also posted an MLB-high 28.0% kRate during that stretch. Fortunately, Scherzer simply hasn't generated much swing-and-miss this season, which should help mitigate some of those strikeout concerns. Between Scherzer's shaky form prior to the IL stint, an uncertain workload, and a somewhat vulnerable Toronto bullpen behind him, the Phillies stand out as an appealing non-Coors, non-Vegas stack option tonight.

Favorite PHI Bats: Kyle Schwarber, Brandon Marsh, Bryce Harper

Bargain Bats: Bryson Stott, Alec Bohm

Texas Rangers vs. Seth Lugo (RHP), KC

Reminder: Monitor weather here.

Outside of Coors Field and Las Vegas, Kansas City shapes up as arguably the third-best hitting environment on the slate. Neither offense in this game has been particularly trustworthy, but I'll side with the Rangers to capitalize on the favorable conditions and plus pitching matchup. Lugo has struggled badly over his last eight starts, pitching to a 5.84 ERA, 4.60 xFIP, 1.66 WHIP, .321 BAA, .390 opponent wOBA, and 17.6% kRate. The Statcast profile hasn't been any prettier. Over the last month, Lugo has allowed 16 barreled balls, placing him in the bottom fifth percentile of MLB, and he’s allowing ample hard contact and line drives as well. Behind him sits a Royals bullpen that has posted a 5.21 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, .303 BAA, and 1.81 HR/9 over the last month.

There isn’t much statistical data to throw out there to paint the Rangers’ offense in a positive light – they’ve pretty much been a bottom-10 offense both in the short term and long term. However, they have been noticeably better away from home, averaging 4.37 runs/gm on the road compared to just 3.61 runs/gm in Arlington. Kauffman Stadium has also played as the seventh-most hitter-friendly park in baseball this season, and temperatures in the mid-80s paired with 15+ mph winds blowing out to left could certainly help a few balls leave the yard tonight. The Rangers also offer plenty of affordable bats, making it much easier to spend up for Sale and/or pair them with a primary Coors or Vegas stack.

Favorite TEX Bats: Josh Jung, Wyatt Langford, Corey Seager

Bargain Bats: Joc Pederson, Kyle Higashioka

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Los Angeles Angels vs. Peter Lambert (RHP), HOU

Eight of the nine hitters in the projected Angels lineup carry sub-5% pOwn%. Lambert has been one of the steadier pieces of Houston's otherwise shaky rotation this season, but that has still translated to fairly middling marks in ERA, xFIP, WHIP, and kRate over his recent stretch of starts. While the Astros bullpen has been trending in the right direction lately, it still grades out as a bottom-five relief unit on the season.

Meanwhile, the Angels offense has quietly been producing respectable numbers of late. Against RHPs over the last two weeks, they’ve ranked 11th in AVG (.263), 12th in OPS (.753), 12th in wOBA (.334), and 13th in wRC+ (111). They've also done a better job limiting strikeouts during that span. There are certainly stronger stack spots available on this slate, but if you're searching for leverage in large-field tournaments, a smaller two- or three-man Angels stack is a perfectly reasonable approach.

Favorite LAA Bats: Zach Neto, Wade Meckler, Mike Trout

Bargain Bats: Oswald Peraza, Jo Adell, Nick Madrigal

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