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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

An absolute behemoth of a slate hits the board this Friday evening with 13 games on tap. With this much to sort through, we won’t waste much time on the intro. This slate does have a little bit of everything. Even better, only one game (MIN at CLE) currently carries meaningful weather concerns, which is always nice to see on a slate this large. Let’s jump in. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣5/8 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts. Note: I’m not a meteorologist so don’t treat these forecast previews as gospel! It’s always best to run a pre-game weather check for any at-risk games.

Weather Key: 🟡 Chance for delay | 🟠 Elevated delay / PPD risk | 🔴 High PPD risk
🔵 Favorable for pitchers (cold/wind in) | 🟢 Favorable for hitters (warm/wind out)

• MIN at CLE (7:15 ET, 7.5 O/U): The only game that really needs monitoring tonight. Rain will be moving through the area this evening and, while there’s still a chance the bulk of it stays south of the ballpark, there’s enough uncertainty here to create some concern. A delay is definitely in play and a PPD cannot be fully ruled out.

• NYM at ARI (9:40 ET, 8.0 O/U): Chase Field’s roof is currently scheduled to be open tonight. If they stick with that plan, temperatures in Phoenix should be near 100 degrees at first pitch and remain in the 90s throughout the game. That’s a clear boost to bats compared to a closed-roof environment.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Dylan Cease (RHP), TOR | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10k | vs. LAA

There are plenty of talented and intriguing arms on this slate, so narrowing it down to just a few featured pitchers isn’t easy. But we’ll start with arguably the safest option on the board in Dylan Cease. Outside of a minor hiccup against Boston a couple of starts ago, he has been dominant this season. Across 38.1 innings, Cease owns a 3.05 ERA, 2.60 xFIP, and a massive 33.7% kRate while generating a strong 50.6% GB% and a slate-low 24.7% FB%. The 1.33 WHIP is a little elevated, partly due to a 10.8% BB%, but he’s also been hurt by some poor BABIP luck with opponents carrying a .360 BABIP against him compared to his .297 career mark. That’s also a major reason why his xFIP sits nearly a half-run lower than the ERA. Most pitchers would see much uglier overall results with that kind of BABIP variance, but Cease has still managed to produce at a high level.

The matchup lines up well, too. While the Angels have surprisingly been much better offensively on the road (5.45 runs/game) than at home (3.39 runs/game), this feels like a spot where some regression could show up. Over the last two weeks against RHPs, Los Angeles ranks 28th in wRC+ (86) while striking out at a high clip (25.1% kRate – 3rd-highest). They’ve also posted just a 6.5% BB% in those splits, which matters against a pitcher like Cease who can occasionally battle command issues. More importantly, the Angels have really struggled against Cease’s primary pitch mix of four-seam, slider, changeup, and sinker. Against that mix from righties, they own an MLB-worst .215 AVG along with a .311 wOBA (26th), 27.7% Whiff% (3rd-highest), and a 27.0% kRate (highest in baseball). Overall, this sets up as one of the strongest spots on the slate for both floor and upside, especially if some of those regression trends begin moving back toward the mean.

Nolan McLean (RHP), NYM | DK: $9k, FD: $9.9k | at ARI

McLean has been one of the few bright spots in an otherwise disappointing Mets season, and it’s a little surprising that we’re getting him below $10k on both sites tonight. Across 39.1 innings, he has produced a 2.97 ERA, slate-best 2.47 xFIP (2nd-best among all qualified MLB starters), 0.94 WHIP, and an elite 33.3% kRate. As mentioned in the weather section, Chase Field’s roof is currently scheduled to be open, and the extreme heat in Phoenix should create a more favorable hitting environment than usual. Even so, McLean has done an excellent job limiting dangerous contact in the air. His 31.1% FB% is among the lowest marks on this slate, and he has surrendered just two home runs all season, resulting in a minuscule 0.46 HR/9 and 7.1% HR/FB rate.

The matchup also looks favorable. Against RHPs over the last two weeks, Arizona ranks 25th or worse in AVG (.219), OPS (.683), wOBA (.306), and wRC+ (91) while striking out at a slightly above-average clip (22.1% kRate). The D-Backs also own the fourth-lowest HardHit% against McLean’s primary pitch mix of sinker, four-seam, sweeper, curveball, and changeup. That lines up nicely with McLean’s own contact profile, as his 32.2% HardHit% allowed is the second-lowest mark among today’s starters. He’s coming off his worst outing of the season, but this sets up well as a bounce-back spot. McLean already turned in a quality start against Arizona earlier this year, posting 6.1 innings, three hits, two walks, two earned runs, and eight strikeouts back on April 9th. Something similar – or potentially even better – could be in store tonight out in the desert.

Robby Snelling (LHP), MIA | DK: $8k, FD: $7k | vs. WAS

I wouldn’t normally spotlight a pitcher making his MLB debut on a 13-game slate loaded with proven big league arms, but Snelling’s Triple-A numbers have simply been too ridiculous to ignore. Minor league production obviously doesn’t translate directly to MLB success, but the underlying results have been dominant. Across 29.0 innings with Triple-A Jacksonville this season, Snelling owns a 1.86 ERA, 2.64 xFIP, 0.90 WHIP, .116 BAA, and an absurd 40.0% kRate while generating a massive 56.9% GB%. He has benefited from some favorable BABIP luck (.184), and the command has been shaky at times (13.6% BB%), but the payoff has been that enormous strikeout upside. Snelling enters as Miami’s No. 2 prospect and the No. 32 overall prospect in baseball (per MLB.com), so this is a debut worth paying attention to even outside of DFS purposes.

Washington has posted respectable numbers against lefties over the last month (.252 AVG, .719 OPS, 103 wRC+), but nothing overly intimidating, and the strikeouts have still been there with a 26.2% kRate in those splits. Outside of a couple of bats in the projected lineup, there’s plenty of swing-and-miss throughout this Nationals order. Snelling also gets the benefit of making his debut at home in one of the better pitcher environments in baseball, as loanDepot Park has played as the No. 4 most pitcher-friendly venue this season. If you’re willing to embrace some of the volatility that naturally comes with a debuting arm, Snelling brings legitimate upside into play here, especially at just $7,000 on FanDuel.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Jacob Misiorowski (RHP), MIL | DK: $10k, FD: $10.4k | vs. NYY

Max Fried (LHP), NYY | DK: $9.2k, FD: $10.2k | at MIL

Kris Bubic (LHP), KC | DK: $8.6k, FD: $9.1k | vs. DET

Parker Messick (LHP), CLE | DK: $8.4k, FD: $9.7k | vs. MIN (Monitor weather)

Griffin Canning (RHP), SD | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.7k | vs. STL

Carmen Mlodzinski (RHP), PIT | DK: $6.6k, FD: $8.1k | at SF

Sean Burke (RHP), CWS | DK: $6.3k, FD: $8.5k | vs. SEA

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Athletics vs. Kyle Bradish (RHP), BAL

There’s plenty of high-end pitching on this slate, which makes this matchup between the Athletics and Orioles stand out as the lone game carrying a total above 8.5 runs. Both offenses are viable, but we’ll lean toward the Athletics side here. They’ve been swinging some hot bats against righties lately, ranking top-four over the last two weeks in AVG (.279), OPS (.852), wOBA (.372), ISO (.219), and wRC+ (133) while also posting an MLB-low 15.1% kRate in those splits. Camden Yards has also played as the No. 3 most hitter-friendly park in baseball this season.

Bradish has struggled to find consistency so far in 2026. Across 34.0 innings, he owns a 5.03 ERA, 5.11 xERA, 1.82 WHIP, 22.3% kRate, and an elevated 13.4% BB%. The strikeouts have at least been respectable, but the command has been shaky and the quality of contact allowed has been rough as well. Bradish ranks inside the bottom 10th percentile in Barrel% allowed (13.0%) and has surrendered a .373 wOBA to lefties along with a massive .463 wOBA to righties. The Athletics will roll out five hitters with at least a .357 wOBA against RHPs this season, including three above the .400 mark. Baltimore’s bullpen has also been struggling lately, posting a 6.49 ERA, 1.69 WHIP, .302 BAA, and just a 16.8% kRate over the last two weeks. The Orioles were forced to use four relievers yesterday as well, including three who threw at least 19 pitches, so bullpen flexibility could become an issue if Bradish runs into trouble early.

Favorite ATH Bats: Shea Langeliers, Nick Kurtz, Brent Rooker

Bargain Bats: Carlos Cortes, Jacob Wilson, Tyler Soderstrom, Zack Gelof

Chicago Cubs vs. Kumar Rocker (RHP), TEX

The Cubs have been one of the more consistent offenses in baseball this season, and they’ll be chasing their tenth straight win tonight. Against RHPs over the last month, Chicago ranks top-five in OPS (.795), wOBA (.352), ISO (.183), and wRC+ (125) while maintaining a sub-20% kRate.

Rocker has delivered fairly middling results overall and is coming off his worst outing of the season after getting tagged for five runs by Detroit and getting pulled after just two innings (43 pitches). Across the year as a whole, he owns a 4.71 ERA, 4.84 xERA, 1.47 WHIP, .276 BAA, and an 18.9% kRate. The contact profile has also been concerning. Rocker carries a 47.8% HardHit% (13th percentile) and ranks inside the bottom 25th percentile in both xBA (.273) and average exit velocity allowed (90.5 mph). He relies heavily on a sinker/slider combination, with those two pitches accounting for 75.5% of his arsenal this season. Against that mix, the Cubs have produced a strong .352 wOBA while striking out at just a 16.3% clip.

There are a couple of factors working against a full Cubs stack tonight. Globe Life Field has played as the least hitter-friendly park in baseball this season, and the Rangers bullpen enters with MLB’s best ERA (2.98). That said, the underlying numbers aren’t nearly as impressive, as Texas also owns a 4.58 xFIP out of the bullpen, which ranks ninth-worst in baseball and points toward some looming regression. If the Cubs can get to Rocker early, there’s a decent chance they see some lower-leverage bullpen arms later in the game. Texas also used five relievers yesterday, so a few bullpen pieces could be less available tonight.

Favorite CHC Bats: Pete Crow-Armstrong, Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki

Bargain Bat: Michael Busch

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Atlanta Braves vs. Emmet Sheehan (RHP), LAD

Every hitter in the projected Braves lineup is currently checking in at 10% pOwn% or lower. On a smaller slate, Atlanta likely wouldn’t have such low ownership projections, but that’s just the nature of a loaded 13-gamer. Against RHPs over the last month, the Braves rank first in AVG (.277), OPS (.824), wOBA (.360), and wRC+ (128) while also checking in second in ISO (.201), trailing only the Yankees.

Sheehan is a talented arm with legitimate strikeout ability, but there are still some paths for Atlanta to do damage here. He has allowed a decent amount of loud contact this season, posting a 9.3% Barrel% and 40.7% HardHit%. That has already resulted in six homers allowed, leading to a 1.74 HR/9 and elevated 20.7% HR/FB rate. Atlanta’s offensive profile lines up well against that type of contact tendency, as the Braves own the second-highest FB% (44.4%) against RHPs over the last month. Even with Sheehan backed by a loaded Dodgers bullpen, there’s still clear potential for multiple long balls and strong overall production from this lineup tonight.

Favorite ATL Bats: Matt Olson, Drake Baldwin, Ozzie Albies

Bargain Bats: Michael Harris II, Jim Jarvis

Unfortunately, I ran a little short on time trying to tackle this loaded slate so no one-off or bargain bat lists today. I’ll get those back online on Monday!

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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