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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

It’s somewhat rare that we get a decent number of games on a Thursday evening, but that’s the case today with a four-game slate beginning at 6:40 ET. Still a small slate overall, but definitely better than the two- or three-gamers that Thursday evenings usually give us. On paper, this looks like a pretty solid little slate with some intriguing pitching options, a few stacks worth targeting, and enough viable paths for different roster builds. Thankfully, weather shouldn’t be much of a factor tonight either. Let’s knock out a quick little newsletter and see if we can find the right pieces to the puzzle. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣5/7 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts. Note: I’m not a meteorologist so don’t treat these forecast previews as gospel! It’s always best to run a pre-game weather check for any at-risk games.

Weather Key: 🟡 Chance for delay | 🟠 Elevated delay / PPD risk | 🔴 High PPD risk
🔵 Favorable for pitchers (cold/wind in) | 🟢 Favorable for hitters (warm/wind out)

• ATH at PHI (6:40 ET, 9.0 O/U): Mid-60s with light winds IN from left. Mostly neutral hitting conditions overall.

• TB at BOS (7:10 ET, 8.5 O/U): Mid-50s for most of the game with 10 mph winds OUT to right. Enough to give bats a moderate boost at Fenway, a typically hitter-friendly park.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Max Meyer (RHP), MIA | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9.4k | vs. BAL

Meyer is putting together a strong 2026 campaign. He hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any of his seven starts and is coming off his best outing of the season, needing just 83 pitches to cover seven scoreless innings against the Phillies while allowing one hit, one walk, and striking out seven. That start also happened to be Philadelphia’s only loss over its last nine games. Overall, Meyer owns a sharp 2.68 ERA, 3.62 xFIP, 1.03 WHIP, and 26.0% kRate backed by a strong 13.7% SwStr%. The HardHit% (41.8%) and Barrel% (9.3%) are a tad elevated, but nothing overly concerning. The main issue is workload, as Miami has generally kept him in the 85-pitch range. Because of that cautious approach, Meyer had not cleared 5.1 innings in a start prior to that dominant outing against Philadelphia.

The matchup is favorable enough, especially with Baltimore being far less dangerous away from Camden Yards. The Orioles average 5.11 runs/game at home compared to just 4.16 on the road, and the splits against righties away from home are especially ugly. Against RHPs on the road this season, Baltimore ranks 28th or worse in AVG (.207), OPS (.628), wOBA (.288), and wRC+ (79) while carrying a 26.4% kRate (5th-highest). The O’s have plated 16 runs through the first two games of this series, but Meyer has been steady enough to cool them back down toward those weaker road splits.

Griffin Jax (RHP), TB | DK: $4k, FD: $6.2k | at BOS

Mostly a DraftKings SP2 punt play here given the $4,000 salary. Jax has made most of his appearances out of the bullpen this season, but injuries have opened the door for him to potentially step into a rotation role. He has served as an opener in each of his last two outings and worked into the third inning both times while throwing 31 and 45 pitches. If that trend continues, there’s a chance he pushes closer to the 60–70 pitch range tonight. Nothing guaranteed, but it’s at least on the table. He has also pitched better than the 5.14 ERA suggests, with a more respectable 4.59 xFIP underneath. Jax’s biggest appeal comes from the strikeout upside, as he owns a solid 22.6% kRate, and that number could climb closer to ~28% if his excellent 14.1% SwStr% holds. He has also generated groundballs at a strong 48.6% clip, and his 110 Pitching+ rating leads all pitchers on this slate. That said, the realistic ceiling is probably around four innings even if the pitch count climbs, and Tampa Bay will likely continue using Jesse Scholtens in bulk relief behind him like they have in Jax’s previous two opener starts.

The matchup is manageable enough. Over the last two weeks against RHPs, Boston owns the second-lowest wRC+ (74) in baseball while hitting just .215 with a .629 OPS. They’ve also posted the sixth-highest ground-ball rate (46.4%) in that span along with a moderate 22.0% kRate. If Jax can scrape together something in the neighborhood of 12–15 DKFP here, that would be perfectly acceptable at this price point.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Michael King (RHP), SD | DK: $8.5k, FD: $10.3k | vs. STL

Andrew Painter (RHP), PHI | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8k | vs. ATH

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. JT Ginn (RHP), ATH

The Phillies endured that ugly 10-game losing streak back in April, but they’ve been playing much better baseball since then. They’re 8-1 over their last nine games and, during that stretch, they rank seventh or better in AVG (.275), OPS (.780), wOBA (.341), ISO (.180), and wRC+ (113) while maintaining a sub-20% kRate. They’ve also averaged nearly a full run more per game at home this season, and Citizens Bank Park has leaned hitter-friendly overall (No. 11 hitter’s park so far this year).

JT Ginn is a fairly unremarkable starter, posting a 4.30 ERA, 4.66 xFIP, 18.7% kRate, and 11.4% BB% across 29.1 innings. To his credit, he has done a decent job limiting loud contact, ranking inside the top 70th percentile in average exit velocity allowed (86.9 mph) and HardHit% (34.1%), while also inducing a high GroundBall% (48.2%). Still, this Phillies offense is swinging some hot bats right now and enters with clear momentum. Ginn also won’t have much margin for error with an Athletics bullpen behind him that owns a 6.08 ERA, 5.22 xFIP, and 1.50 WHIP over the last two weeks. Philadelphia carries the highest implied total on this four-game slate at 4.7 runs.

Favorite PHI Bats: Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner

Bargain Bats: Brandon Marsh, Adolis Garcia, Justin Crawford

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Jake Bennett (LHP), BOS

Bennett impressed in his MLB debut last Friday, tossing five innings of one-run ball on 85 pitches. Boston’s No. 6 prospect (per MLB.com) has also dominated Triple-A this season with a sparkling 0.86 ERA across 21.0 innings. The long-term outlook is promising, but he’s still an inexperienced arm making just his second big league start. While he held Houston to a single run in that debut, there were still some warning signs underneath the surface. Bennett allowed a pair of barrels along with eight hard-hit balls, leading to an elevated 53.3% HardHit%. If that continues, the run prevention is unlikely to stay this clean over roughly five innings of work.

The Rays haven’t been especially dangerous against lefties overall, but there are several individual bats in this lineup that profile well in the split. Tampa Bay is expected to roll out five hitters with at least a 113 wRC+ and .339 wOBA against southpaws this season, including four bats north of a 137 wRC+ and .376 wOBA. Those are the primary Rays targets to focus on tonight and are listed below. Conditions also lean favorable for hitters at Fenway with ~10 mph winds blowing out toward the short porch in right field, and Tampa Bay has been noticeably better offensively on the road this season, averaging 4.61 runs/game compared to 4.22 at home.

Favorite TB Bats: Junior Caminero, Yandy Diaz, Jonathan Aranda

Bargain Bats: Jonny DeLuca, Ryan Vilade

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Baltimore Orioles vs. Max Meyer (RHP), MIA

It’s always difficult to find a truly low-owned stack on a four-game slate, but Max Meyer should draw plenty of attention at pitcher tonight, which naturally pushes Baltimore’s ownership down. Seven of the nine projected Orioles hitters are currently checking in below 10% pOwn%. Meyer was highlighted in the pitching section above, and there are legitimate reasons to like him in this matchup. But this is purely a leverage angle, and even if Baltimore doesn’t do much damage early, Miami has generally kept Meyer around the 85-pitch range this season. That opens the door for some potential late-inning production against a Marlins bullpen that hasn’t been particularly sharp lately. As previously mentioned, the Orioles have already plated 16 runs through the first two games of this series, so these bats have at least looked comfortable in this ballpark over the last couple of days.

Favorite BAL Bats: Pete Alonso, Adley Rutschman, Taylor Ward

Bargain Bats: Samuel Basallo, Leody Taveras

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B Nick Kurtz, ATH vs. Andrew Painter (RHP), PHI

3B Junior Caminero, TB vs. Jake Bennett (LHP), BOS

1B Bryce Harper, PHI vs. JT Ginn (RHP), ATH

2B JJ Wetherholt, STL vs. Michael King (RHP), SD

1B Pete Alonso, BAL vs. Max Meyer (RHP), MIA

OF Jarren Duran, BOS vs. Griffin Jax (RHP), TB

3B Manny Machado, SD vs. Matthew Liberatore (LHP), STL

2B Xavier Edwards, MIA vs. Cade Povich (LHP), BAL

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

To qualify as a bargain bat, hitters must be ≤ $4,000 on DraftKings.

C Ivan Herrera, STL vs. Michael King (RHP), SD

SS Otto Lopez, MIA vs. Cade Povich (LHP), BAL

OF Brandon Marsh, PHI vs. JT Ginn (RHP), ATH

OF Jonny DeLuca, TB vs. Jake Bennett (LHP), BOS

SS Jacob Wilson, ATH vs. Andrew Painter (RHP), PHI

OF Carlos Cortes, ATH vs. Andrew Painter (RHP), PHI

3B/OF Miguel Andujar, SD vs. Matthew Liberatore (LHP), STL

OF Masataka Yoshida, BOS vs. Griffin Jax (RHP), TB

OF Adolis Garcia, PHI vs. JT Ginn (RHP), ATH

1B/OF Ryan Vilade, TB vs. Jake Bennett (LHP), BOS

OF Esteury Ruiz, MIA vs. Cade Povich (LHP), BAL

2B/3B Edmundo Sosa, PHI vs. JT Ginn (RHP), ATH

OF Justin Crawford, PHI vs. JT Ginn (RHP), ATH

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