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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

It’s another full day of Wednesday MLB action and, once the afternoon games wrap up, we’ll be left with a nine-game evening main slate beginning at 6:40 ET. Pitching looks fairly strong overall, which is reflected by only five teams carrying implied totals of at least 4.5 runs. Weather should cooperate for the most part, though there are a couple of spots worth monitoring – mainly TEX at NYY. Let’s see if we can cook up a winning approach. Best of luck!

Quick Note: I have to head out of town in a bit, so today’s newsletter will be a bit shorter than usual.

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣5/6 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts. Note: I’m not a meteorologist so don’t treat these forecast previews as gospel! It’s always best to run a pre-game weather check for any at-risk games.

Weather Key: 🟡 Chance for delay | 🟠 Elevated delay / PPD risk | 🔴 High PPD risk
🔵 Favorable for pitchers (cold/wind in) | 🟢 Favorable for hitters (warm/wind out)

• BOS at DET (6:40 ET, 8.5 O/U): Mid-50s with ~10 mph winds blowing mostly right-to-left, occasionally shifting a bit OUT to left. Slight bump to bats.

• ATH at PHI (6:40 ET, 8.0 O/U): Some rain in the area, but conditions should be clear – or clearing – around first pitch. A late start is possible, so worth a pre-lock radar check to make sure that’s the worst-case scenario. Temps around 70 degrees with 5–10 mph winds OUT to right.

• MIN at WAS (6:45 ET, 9.5 O/U): Similar outlook to Philly with lingering rain possible around first pitch, but there should be a playable window, potentially after a delayed start.

• TEX at NYY (7:05 ET, 8.5 O/U): Highest delay risk on the slate. A late start is certainly on the table and there could also be some lighter showers during the middle-to-late innings. A postponement can’t be fully ruled out, but it currently looks unlikely. Definitely check radar closer to lock.

• CIN at CHC (7:40 ET, 8.0 O/U): Temps in the 50s with ~10 mph winds OUT to right. Overall, fairly neutral conditions with perhaps a slight lean toward bats.

• NYM at COL (9:20 ET, 9.5 O/U): Cold conditions (~40 degrees) and some snow still needs to be cleared from Coors Field before first pitch. Assuming there are no issues there, the forecast otherwise looks clear. Still, the cold temps help explain why this total sits below 10 runs despite the Coors bump.

• PIT at ARI (9:40 ET, 7.5 O/U): Roof is scheduled to be open again at Chase Field with gametime temps in the low-80s. Two quality pitchers are scheduled to start, but the open roof still provides a slight bump to bats compared to a closed-roof setup.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Zack Wheeler (RHP), PHI | DK: $10k, FD: $10.5k | vs. ATH

Reminder: Monitor weather here.

After getting a late start to the season following shoulder surgery, Wheeler’s first two outings have been encouraging. Across 11.0 innings against the Braves and Marlins, he has posted a 2.45 ERA, 2.99 xFIP, 1.00 WHIP, 32.6% kRate, 14.6% SwStr%, and 54.2% GB%. He’s also limited hitters to a 12.5% LineDrive% and 25.0% HardContact%. Outside of a somewhat elevated walk rate (11.6% BB%) and fastball velocity that’s down a tick from previous seasons, there haven’t been any major concerns. He reached 94 pitches in his last outing after throwing 84 in his season debut, and this will also be his first home start of 2026 – a setting where he has historically performed better (+22.4% more FPPG at Citizens Bank Park).

The A’s tend to do most of their damage in their hitter-friendly home environment (5.06 runs/gm at home), but they’ve been much less threatening on the road, averaging just 3.63 runs per game. Against RHPs away from home, they’ve been fairly middle-of-the-pack with a .246 AVG, .714 OPS, 97 wRC+, and a 24.5% kRate. Wheeler will still need to work around a few dangerous bats, but the lineup also loses some thump with Shea Langeliers landing on the paternity list today. It’s not a perfect matchup, but it still shapes up as a strong spot for Wheeler overall.

Will Warren (RHP), NYY | DK: $9.3k, FD: $10.7k | vs. TEX

Reminder: Monitor weather here.

I don’t think we can label Warren an ace just yet, but he’s been another member of this Yankees rotation that has been pitching like one this season. Across seven starts (37.2 IP), he owns a slate-best 2.39 ERA and 2.59 xFIP to go along with a 1.06 WHIP, 30.3% kRate, and 5.3% BB%. His 125 Pitching+ rating ranks second among all qualified MLB starters, highlighting just how strong the combination of stuff and command has been. The one potential red flag is whether the strikeout rate is sustainable, as it’s paired with a more modest 9.6% SwStr% and 23.8% Whiff% (39th percentile). Still, there’s very little else to nitpick here. The Yankees (-199 ML) are also the largest favorites on the slate, and Warren has put up a 3–0 record across five home starts this season – he also averages +59.0% more FPPG when pitching at Yankee Stadium.

The Rangers have struggled badly against right-handed pitching lately. Over the last two weeks, they rank 24th or worse in AVG, OPS, wOBA, ISO, and wRC+. The strikeout rate hasn’t been especially high (20.6%), but they simply haven’t been generating offense consistently and have scored three runs or fewer in seven of their last ten games. Assuming the weather cooperates, Warren is in a strong position to deliver another quality start, and perhaps the strikeout regression stays away for at least one more outing.

Colin Rea (RHP), CHC | DK: $6.5k, FD: $8.7k | vs. CIN

If we’re digging for a cheaper arm, Colin Rea could be a serviceable option, particularly as a $6,500 SP2 on DraftKings. He opened the season working as a long reliever but has since settled into a more consistent starting role. Across 32.2 innings, he has posted a 4.41 ERA, 3.61 xFIP, 1.32 WHIP, 21.1% kRate, and 6.3% BB% while inducing an excellent 52.5% GB%. The overall numbers look fairly average outside of the strong groundball rate, but the xFIP sitting nearly a full run below the ERA suggests he has pitched better than the surface stats indicate. And while it’s admittedly a bit cherry-picked, removing the rough Dodgers outing (6 ER in 3.1 IP) from his record paints a much cleaner picture: 3.07 ERA, 3.30 xFIP, 1.13 WHIP, 21.3% kRate, 4.1% BB%, and 56.3% GB%. The Cubs (-175 ML) are also tied as the second-heaviest favorites on the slate, so if Rea can work through five-plus innings – something he has done in every start outside of that Dodgers matchup – he’ll have a strong chance at securing the win bonus.

The Reds are certainly capable offensively, but they’ve been noticeably weaker away from home, averaging just 3.83 runs/gm on the road (7th-fewest in MLB). Against RHPs on the road this season, they rank 24th or worse in AVG (.227), OPS (.639), wOBA (.286), and wRC+ (78) alongside an elevated 23.8% kRate. Winds around 10 mph blowing toward the outfield at Wrigley could help hitters somewhat, but Rea’s 85th percentile groundball rate helps mitigate some of that concern, as do the cooler Chicago temperatures that should limit carry on flyballs.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Paul Skenes (RHP), PIT | DK: $9.8k, FD: $10.9k | at ARI

Freddy Peralta (RHP), NYM | DK: $8.3k, FD: $8.7k | at COL

Eury Perez (RHP), MIA | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9k | vs. BAL

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Minnesota Twins vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP), WAS

It’s been a rough season for Mikolas (8.23 ERA, 4.73 xFIP, 1.72 WHIP, 15.0% kRate) and, while he hasn’t pitched quite as poorly as the ERA suggests, the underlying profile is still pretty shaky. His stuff simply hasn’t looked good, as evidenced by a 17.9% Whiff% (10th percentile) and a 12.6% Barrel% allowed (12th percentile). Mikolas has always been more of a contact pitcher, but he hasn’t been able to limit the damage this year. He’s struggled against hitters from both sides of the plate, surrendering a .377 wOBA and .268 ISO to RHBs, alongside a .421 wOBA and .237 ISO to LHBs. Behind him sits a Nationals bullpen that owns the third-worst xFIP, lowest strikeout rate, and eighth-highest WHIP in baseball.

The Twins have been fairly mediocre for much of the season, but they’ve heated up lately behind a torrid stretch from Byron Buxton. Over their last eight games, Minnesota ranks top-10 in AVG, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+. This sets up as a favorable spot for the Twins to put plenty of balls in play against Mikolas and a Nationals staff that simply doesn’t miss many bats.

Favorite MIN Bats: Byron Buxton, Ryan Jeffers, Luke Keaschall

Bargain Bats: Trevor Larnach, Kody Clemens, Brooks Lee

Miami Marlins vs. Brandon Young (RHP), BAL

Young has made just three starts this season, so we’re working with a small 14.2-inning sample. Still, the early returns haven’t been great: 6.14 ERA, 5.75 xFIP, 1.64 WHIP, and a 13.2% kRate. His first two outings were respectable enough, but things unraveled badly against Houston last time out when he surrendered 10 runs (7 earned) on 10 hits and two walks across 4.0 innings. Behind him sits an Orioles bullpen that has been in terrible form lately, posting a 7.17 ERA, 1.76 WHIP, .314 BAA, and 17.0% kRate over the last two weeks.

The Marlins have quietly been a competent offense this season. They don’t possess a ton of power, but they’ve shown strong bat-to-ball skills and consistently put pressure on opposing pitchers. Miami ranks seventh in hits against RHPs despite having only the 14th-most plate appearances in those splits. Overall versus righties, they rank top-10 in AVG, wOBA, and wRC+. They’ve also been more productive at home, averaging 4.43 runs per game in Miami compared to 4.00 on the road.

Favorite MIA Bats: Liam Hicks, Xavier Edwards, Otto Lopez

Bargain Bats: Connor Norby, Kyle Stowers

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Michael Soroka (RHP), ARI

Eight of the nine hitters in the projected Pirates lineup check in below 8% pOwn%. Pittsburgh has quietly been swinging the bats well lately, ranking top-10 in both wOBA and wRC+ against RHPs over the last two weeks. They’ll also benefit from a favorable hitting environment at Chase Field, which has played as the No. 8 hitter-friendly park this season, and the open roof with warm Phoenix temperatures only boosts the bats further.

Soroka had been rolling through his first few starts before regression finally caught up to him in Milwaukee last time out (3.0 IP, 10 H, 2 BB, 8 ER). The contact profile had been hinting at trouble for a while, and it finally surfaced in a big way. He ranks in the bottom 25th percentile in xERA (5.10), xBA (.282), average exit velocity (90.5 mph), and Barrel% allowed (11.4%). Another shaky outing is certainly possible against a Pirates offense that has shown much better form recently. Behind Soroka is a Diamondbacks bullpen that has firmly graded out as a bottom-10 relief unit this season.

Favorite PIT Bats: Oneil Cruz, Brandon Lowe, Ryan O’Hearn

Bargain Bats: Konnor Griffin, Nick Gonzales

Note: No one-off or bargain bat lists today. I’ll get those back online later this week!

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