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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Happy Cinco de Mayo! We’ve got a solid nine-game Tuesday main slate to work with. Originally this was a 10-gamer, but the Mets–Rockies matchup was postponed due to inclement weather. I doubt many people will be too upset about Coors Field being off the slate – sometimes it’s nice not having to factor in those bats. Outside of one spot (MIL at STL), weather is pretty manageable across the board, so it’s shaping up to be a fairly clean slate. Pitching isn’t especially deep, but there are enough viable arms to work with, and the same goes for hitters and stacks, even with Coors nixed. Let’s see what we can put together. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣5/5 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts. Note: I’m not a meteorologist so don’t treat these forecast previews as gospel! It’s always best to run a pre-game weather check for any at-risk games.

Weather Key: 🟡 Chance for delay | 🟠 Elevated delay / PPD risk | 🔴 High PPD risk
🔵 Favorable for pitchers (cold/wind in) | 🟢 Favorable for hitters (warm/wind out)

• TEX at NYY (7:05 ET, 9.0 O/U): Mid-70s temps with ~15 mph winds blowing mostly right-to-left, with occasional shifts OUT to left. Could lead to a bump for bats at times.

• CLE at KC (7:40 ET, 7.5 O/U): Temps in the 50s with light winds IN from left. Lean toward pitchers.

• CIN at CHC (7:40 ET, 8.0 O/U): Temps in the 50s with ~5 mph winds IN from center/right. At a wind-sensitive park like Wrigley, that’s enough to give bats a slight-to-moderate downgrade.

• MIL at STL (7:45 ET, 7.5 O/U): The one spot to monitor closely. Rain is expected throughout the afternoon and into the evening. Most likely outcome is either a delayed start (potentially lengthy) or an early PPD decision if the forecast doesn’t look promising. If they do play, temps will be in the upper-40s with ~10 mph winds IN from left – poor hitting conditions.

• CWS at LAA (9:38 ET, 9.0 O/U): 5–10 mph winds OUT to center. Slight bump for bats.

• PIT at ARI (9:40 ET, 9.0 O/U): Roof expected to be open. Not overly warm in Phoenix this evening, but still a slight boost to bats compared to a closed-roof environment.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Shohei Ohtani (RHP), LAD | DK: $10.7k, FD: $11k | at HOU

Ohtani has been sharp on the mound, as expected, pitching to a 0.60 ERA, 2.23 xERA, 3.21 xFIP, 0.87 WHIP, 28.6% kRate, and a 53.4% GB% over 30.0 innings. The ERA likely won’t stay below 1.00 for long, but the underlying metrics remain elite, and the groundball rate is a notable jump from his 43.8% career mark. He’s also allowed just two barreled balls (2.7% Barrel%) and is working with a deep seven-pitch arsenal to keep hitters off balance. His 113 Stuff+ ranks 6th among qualified starters, reinforcing just how dominant the raw stuff has been.

This could be his toughest matchup to date. The Astros have been strong against righties, ranking 2nd in AVG (.283) over the last two weeks while sitting 10th in OPS (.779), wOBA (.344), and wRC+ (117), with a middling 22.1% kRate. They also rank 3rd with a .364 wOBA against Ohtani’s primary pitch mix (four-seam, sweeper, curveball, splitter). That said, it’s still Ohtani – and his stuff can overpower even strong offenses. The Dodgers (-232 ML) are also the heaviest favorites on the slate, which helps his win equity. This profiles more as a high-floor spot than a ceiling game, but he still carries plenty of upside if things break his way.

Gavin Williams (RHP), CLE | DK: $9.3k, FD: $10.8k | at KC

Williams has flashed a massive ceiling this season, with three outings of at least 35 DKFP/60 FDFP. Across seven starts (43.1 IP), he owns a strong 2.70 ERA, 3.23 xFIP, 1.02 WHIP, 31.0% kRate, and a 50.5% GB%. Outside of a double-digit walk rate (11.1%) and some contact concerns (91.3 mph EV, 13.5% Barrel%), there hasn’t been much to nitpick. He’s also handled both sides of the plate well, holding all hitters to sub-.300 wOBA splits while posting a 29.4% kRate against righties and 32.0% against lefties.

The Royals have been far more dangerous at home (5.47 runs/gm) than on the road (2.94 runs/gm), so this isn’t the same soft landing spot we sometimes get with them. That said, conditions will favor pitchers with cool temps and light winds blowing in at Kauffman Stadium this evening. Kansas City also ranks just 25th in wOBA (.316) against Williams’ five-pitch mix (four-seam, sweeper, curveball, sinker, cutter) and carries a top-10 strikeout rate in that split. If Williams can keep the walks in check and limit damage on contact, this lines up as another strong outing, and he arguably brings the highest ceiling of any arm on the slate.

Walker Buehler (RHP), SD | DK: $6k, FD: $7.1k | at SF

We don’t have a $4,000 Trevor McDonald-type option like yesterday, and there isn’t much to get excited about among the low-end arms on this slate. That said, this could line up as a “good Walker Buehler” spot. Through six starts, he’s had two strong outings, one serviceable one, and three rough performances, leading to a 5.40 ERA, 4.04 xFIP, 1.56 WHIP, and 21.1% kRate. The gap between the ERA and xFIP suggests he’s pitched better than the surface stats indicate. He’s also done a solid job generating groundballs (48.7% GB%) while limiting flyballs (26.3% FB%), and has allowed just three barreled balls (3.9% Barrel%, 85th percentile).

This really comes down to San Francisco’s struggles against righties at home. In those splits, they’re hitting just .215 (28th) with a .589 OPS (29th), .264 wOBA (29th), .110 ISO (26th), and a 69 wRC+ (29th). The strikeout rate (20.6%) is closer to league average, but they also carry the sixth-highest groundball rate, which plays into Buehler’s strengths. It’s not a high-confidence play, but there’s a reasonable path to five or six effective innings here.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Jacob deGrom (RHP), TEX | DK: $9.7k, FD: $10.5k | at NYY

Logan Webb (RHP), SF | DK: $8.7k, FD: $9.2k | vs. SD

Bryce Elder (RHP), ATL | DK: $8.5k, FD: $10.1k | at SEA

Stephen Kolek (RHP), KC | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7.5k | vs. CLE

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Arizona Diamondbacks (LHBs Preferred) vs. Bubba Chandler (RHP), PIT

Chandler brings big-time velocity (98.6 mph fastball, 97th percentile), but the results haven’t followed: 4.97 ERA, 5.26 xFIP, 1.48 WHIP, 20.8% kRate, and a concerning 15.4% BB%. He’s also extremely flyball-heavy (45.7% FB%) and has shown some early struggles on the road. In those splits, his ERA and xFIP both sit just under 6.00, the WHIP jumps to 1.68, and four of the five home runs he’s allowed have come away from home. The Pirates bullpen has been in solid form and comes in well-rested, so most of Arizona’s damage may need to come early against Chandler.

Chase Field has played as the No. 7 hitter-friendly park this season, and with the roof expected to be open, that gives bats a bit of an added boost. Arizona has been a solid offense against RHPs at home over the last month, hitting .271 with a .774 OPS, .343 wOBA, .176 ISO, and a 115 wRC+ while keeping strikeouts in check (17.6% kRate). The numbers aren’t overwhelming, but they’re strong enough, and the matchup against a young arm with road issues adds confidence. Left-handed bats should take priority here, as Chandler has struggled more against that side (.370 wOBA, .264 ISO, 21.1% HR/FB).

Favorite ARI Bats: Corbin Carroll, Ildemaro Vargas, Ketel Marte

Bargain Bats: Adrian Del Castillo, Gabriel Moreno

Chicago White Sox vs. Sam Aldegheri (LHP), LAA

Aldegheri has just 28.1 MLB innings under his belt across the last three seasons, and the results have been rough: 6.35 ERA, 6.99 xFIP, 2.05 WHIP, 1.91 HR/9, .305 BAA, 14.2% BB%, and 16.2% kRate. A more recent sample at Triple-A this year hasn’t been much better (24.1 IP: 7.77 ERA, 4.89 xFIP, 1.73 WHIP, .296 BAA, 11.4% BB%, 20.7% kRate). There’s a good chance he struggles to get through five innings, which could expose a shaky Angels bullpen that has been in poor form lately (L2Weeks: 7.28 ERA, 4.57 xFIP, 1.66 WHIP, .289 BAA).

The White Sox have shown plenty of power against left-handed pitching. Five hitters in the projected lineup own at least a .371 wOBA vs. LHPs this season, with four carrying massive ISOs north of .359. As a team, they rank 9th in OPS (.751), wOBA (.331), and wRC+ (107) against lefties, while checking in 2nd in ISO (.195), trailing only the Yankees. They may not hit for a high average, but the power is real, and they’re more than capable of leaving the yard multiple times against an inexperienced lefty and a struggling bullpen.

Favorite CWS Bats: Munetaka Murakami, Miguel Vargas, Colson Montgomery

Bargain Bats: Chase Meidroth, Drew Romo

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Chicago Cubs vs. Andrew Abbott (LHP), CIN

I was a bit surprised by the ownership projections here, as every hitter in the projected Cubs lineup checks in at ≤ 5% pOwn%. Hitting conditions won’t be ideal at Wrigley, but they’ve still been excellent against lefties at home. In those splits, they’re hitting .299 (3rd) with a .865 OPS (3rd), .381 wOBA (3rd), .175 ISO (6th), 146 wRC+ (3rd), and a sub-20% kRate.

While he’s coming off a quality start against Colorado, Abbott’s season has largely gone off track. Across seven starts (34.2 IP), he owns a 5.97 ERA, 4.61 xFIP, 1.67 WHIP, and just a 15.2% kRate. He ranks in the bottom 30th percentile in xERA, xBA, Chase%, Whiff%, and K%, meaning hitters simply aren’t missing his pitches and are putting plenty of balls in play. Behind him is a Reds bullpen that has been in terrible form, posting an MLB-worst 7.85 ERA over the last two weeks, along with a 5.60 xFIP, 2.11 WHIP, .316 BAA, 16.1% BB%, and 1.91 HR/9. Not a group you want to rely on.

I’d be a bit surprised if the Cubs come in this low-owned once things settle, but if they’re even moderately overlooked, they offer strong leverage upside on this slate.

Favorite CHC Bats: Seiya Suzuki, Nico Hoerner, Alex Bregman

Bargain Bats: Carson Kelly, Dansby Swanson, Matt Shaw

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge, NYY vs. Jacob deGrom (RHP), TEX

OF Yordan Alvarez, HOU vs. Shohei Ohtani (RHP), LAD

SS Elly De La Cruz, CIN vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), CHC

OF Mike Trout, LAA vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), CWS

1B Munetaka Murakami, CWS vs. Sam Aldegheri (LHP), LAA

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC vs. Gavin Williams (RHP), CLE

OF Corbin Carroll, ARI vs. Bubba Chandler (RHP), PIT

2B Brice Turang, MIL vs. Andre Pallante (RHP), STL

1B Matt Olson, ATL vs. George Kirby (RHP), SEA

2B JJ Wetherholt, STL vs. Brandon Sproat (RHP), MIL

OF Seiya Suzuki, CHC vs. Andrew Abbott (LHP), CIN

3B Manny Machado, SD vs. Logan Webb (RHP), SF

OF Bryan Reynolds, PIT vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), ARI

OF Julio Rodriguez, SEA vs. Bryce Elder (RHP), ATL

OF Chase DeLauter, CLE vs. Stephen Kolek (RHP), KC

C Dalton Rushing, LAD vs. Peter Lambert (RHP), HOU

3B Josh Jung, TEX vs. Elmer Rodriguez (RHP), NYY

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

To qualify as a bargain bat, hitters must be ≤ $4,000 on DraftKings.

C Will Smith, LAD vs. Peter Lambert (RHP), HOU

C Adrian Del Castillo, ARI vs. Bubba Chandler (RHP), PIT

3B Nick Gonzales, PIT vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), ARI

1B Josh Naylor, SEA vs. Bryce Elder (RHP), ATL

SS Dansby Swanson, CHC vs. Andrew Abbott (LHP), CIN

2B Chase Meidroth, CWS vs. Sam Aldegheri (LHP), LAA

OF Michael Harris II, ATL vs. George Kirby (RHP), SEA

OF JJ Bleday, CIN vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), CHC

1B/OF Spencer Steer, CIN vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), CHC

1B Casey Schmitt, SF vs. Walker Buehler (RHP), SD

C Carson Kelly, CHC vs. Andrew Abbott (LHP), CIN

C Gabriel Moreno, ARI vs. Bubba Chandler (RHP), PIT

OF Marcell Ozuna, PIT vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), ARI

2B/OF Matt Shaw, CHC vs. Andrew Abbott (LHP), CIN

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