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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

We get rolling on a new week of MLB action with eight games on the Monday main slate! Originally, this slate included a Coors Field matchup (NYM at COL), but that game was moved up three hours due to expected inclement evening weather. The CIN at CHC game has also been bumped up 30 minutes to a 7:10 ET first pitch for similar reasons, though it will still remain on the main slate. Weather will still need to be monitored in that spot and a couple others as well. Overall, pitching looks slightly stronger than the hitting today, but there are still a few matchups carrying elevated totals. As long as the weather cooperates in a few key spots, this should be a fun one. Let’s dig into it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣5/4 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts. Note: I’m not a meteorologist so don’t treat these forecast previews as gospel! It’s always best to run a pre-game weather check for any at-risk games.

Weather Key: 🟡 Chance for delay | 🟠 Elevated delay / PPD risk | 🔴 High PPD risk
🔵 Favorable for pitchers (cold/wind in) | 🟢 Favorable for hitters (warm/wind out)

• CIN at CHC (7:10 ET, 11.5 O/U): Starts dry with storm chances increasing later in the evening. If storms move over the ballpark, there’s a real risk of a long delay or even a suspended game. Hopefully the earlier start helps avoid that outcome, even if it is only a 30-minute difference. Temps around 70 degrees with ~15 mph winds OUT to center/left. Great hitting conditions if the weather holds.

• CLE at KC (7:40 ET, 9.0 O/U): Similar outlook to Chicago. Starts dry with storms potentially moving through later in the evening. If a delay is needed, there’s no guarantee they’ll be able to resume play. Solid hitting environment with temps around 80 degrees at first pitch and ~10 mph winds OUT to center.

• MIL at STL (7:45 ET, 8.5 O/U): With a bit of luck, storms should stay north of the ballpark, though some delay risk remains if things shift. If a storm does hit, it’s more likely to be a standard delay rather than a game-ending scenario like the two spots above. Another solid hitting environment with temps in the 70s and ~10–15 mph winds OUT to left.

• CWS at LAA (9:38 ET, 7.5 O/U): ~10 mph winds OUT to center. Slight bump for bats.

• SD at SF (9:45 ET, 8.0 O/U): Some rain in the area, but it should either hold off or result in light, playable conditions late.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Cam Schlittler (RHP), NYY | DK: $10k, FD: $11k | vs. BAL

Schlittler is putting together a legitimate Cy Young-caliber season and heads into his eighth start with a dominant 1.51 ERA, 2.41 xFIP, 0.74 WHIP, 31.4% kRate, 15.5% SwStr%, 3.8% BB%, and a 119 Pitching+ rating. Every one of those marks leads this slate and ranks among the very best in baseball. His 39.7% Chase% sits in the 98th percentile, and his command has been elite, as evidenced by a 97th percentile walk rate.

The Orioles have plenty of talent but catching them away from Camden Yards is key. They’ve averaged just 3.88 runs per game on the road compared to 5.11 at home. Against RHPs on the road, they rank toward the bottom of the league with a .196 AVG (30th), .599 OPS (29th), 70 wRC+ (29th), and a 27.0% kRate (4th-highest). They have handled right-handed fastballs well overall, ranking 2nd in MLB with a .389 wOBA against four-seamers, cutters, and sinkers – which are Schlittler’s three most utilized pitch types. However, his fastball has been on another level relative to the rest of the league, which is reflected in his 100th percentile fastball run value. If Baltimore’s road struggles against righties persist, this sets up as another strong spot for the Yankees’ emerging ace.

Davis Martin (RHP), CWS | DK: $7.8k, FD: $10.1k | at LAA

The jury may still be out on Davis Martin, but the results have been undeniably impressive. Across 37.0 innings, he’s posted a 1.95 ERA, 3.55 xFIP, 1.08 WHIP, 22.9% kRate, and 5.6% BB%. The concern lies in the underlying contact metrics – 91.3 mph average exit velocity (13th percentile), .284 xBA (14th percentile), and a 48.5% HardHit% (11th percentile). He’s been hit hard but has largely avoided damage to this point. Whether that continues is the question, but for now, he’s an intriguing option, especially on DraftKings at $7,800.

Facing the same lineup in back-to-back starts can be tricky for a pitcher, but Martin handled the Angels well last week, allowing just one run over 5.2 innings while striking out seven. He’ll see them again in Anaheim, where the Angels have really struggled. They rank as the fourth-worst home offense in baseball, averaging just 3.27 runs per game (compared to 5.45 on the road). Against RHPs at home, they’ve been especially poor, hitting .201 (30th), with a .573 OPS (30th), .265 wOBA (29th), .087 ISO (29th), and a 60 wRC+ (30th), while also carrying the highest strikeout rate in MLB at 29.5%. That combination helps mitigate some of the concerns with Martin’s contact profile and gives him another path to outperform his underlying metrics in this spot while perhaps avoiding regression for at least one more outing.

Trevor McDonald (RHP), SF | DK: $4k, FD: $6k | vs. SD

This is primarily a DraftKings SP2 punt, as you’re getting a traditional starter at the $4,000 minimum salary – a range typically reserved for relievers. McDonald has yet to make an MLB appearance this season and owns just 18.0 career innings at the big league level. He did flash some promise late last year, logging quality starts against both the Dodgers and Rockies. The Triple-A numbers this season haven’t been great (15.0 IP: 5.40 ERA, 6.24 xFIP, 1.53 WHIP, 17.6% kRate), though there are some mixed signals. He’s limited opponents to a .157 AVG and 35.9% HardHit%, but an extremely high walk rate (22.1% BB%) has been the major issue. There’s clear risk here, but with these minimum-priced starters, the goal is simply to get four or five serviceable innings.

Despite a strong 20–13 record and sitting just a half-game behind the Dodgers in the NL West standings, San Diego’s offense hasn’t been overly imposing. Against RHPs over the last two weeks, they’ve put up fairly average/below-average numbers – .232 AVG, .703 OPS, 99 wRC+ along with a high 25.7% kRate (3rd-highest in MLB in that span). This lineup has traditionally been tough to strike out, but that hasn’t been the case lately. McDonald doesn’t bring overpowering stuff, but there’s a path to a handful of strikeouts here, and if he can keep the walks in check (SD: 8.5% BB% vs. RHPs L2Weeks), he has a reasonable shot at returning value on DraftKings at this price.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Jose Soriano (RHP), LAA | DK: $9.6k, FD: $11.4k | vs. CWS

Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA | DK: $9k, FD: $8.6k | vs. ATL

Randy Vasquez (RHP), SD | DK: $8k, FD: $9k | at SF

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Chicago Cubs vs. Chase Petty (RHP), CIN

Reminder: Monitor weather here.

Chase Petty had a brief and rough introduction to the majors last season, which spanned six mostly disastrous innings that resulted in a 19.50 ERA, 7.61 xFIP, 3.67 WHIP, and a .452 BAA with three home runs allowed. His minor league numbers this season have been more respectable (24.2 IP: 4.38 ERA, 4.12 xFIP, 1.34 WHIP, 27.4% kRate), but this is a major step up in competition. He’ll now face one of the hottest offenses in baseball, on the road, in favorable hitting conditions. Behind him, the Reds bullpen has been getting crushed lately, posting a 7.47 ERA, 5.57 xFIP, 2.06 WHIP, .313 BAA, 18.4% kRate, 15.8% BB%, and a 1.72 HR/9 over the last two weeks.

The Cubs have been rolling against right-handed pitching. Over the last two weeks, they rank top-four in OPS (.831), wOBA (.365), ISO (.215), and wRC+ (133) while keeping strikeouts in check (sub-20% kRate). They’ve also been one of the better home offenses in baseball, averaging 5.32 runs per game at Wrigley. With ~15 mph winds blowing out to center/left, conditions should further boost the bats. As long as the weather holds, this is one of the premier stacking spots on the slate, with the Cubs leading the slate by a wide margin at a 6.7 implied total.

Favorite CHC Bats: Seiya Suzuki, Ian Happ, Alex Bregman

Bargain Bats: Moises Ballesteros, Michael Busch, Carson Kelly

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kyle Leahy (RHP), STL

The Brewers can be a tricky team to trust, but they’ve been swinging the bats well lately. It’s a smaller sample, but against RHPs over the last week (162 PAs), they’ve posted a .321 AVG (2nd), .843 OPS (5th), .375 wOBA (5th), 140 wRC+ (3rd), and a 14.8% kRate (3rd-lowest). The main drawback has been a lack of power, with a .121 ISO in those splits (22nd in MLB). That said, they lead the league with 38 stolen bases, so they can make up for some of that with aggression on the basepaths.

Leahy enters this start with a slate-worst 5.52 ERA, 6.00 xERA, 1.67 WHIP, and a 24.0% HR/FB rate. He’s done a decent job generating groundballs (51.0% GB%), but when hitters elevate, the damage tends to follow. He’s also allowing a slate-high 50.0% HardHit% (7th percentile) and doesn’t miss many bats (16.4% kRate, 18th percentile). The Cardinals bullpen behind him is fairly middle-of-the-pack, and conditions in St. Louis should favor hitters with warm-ish temps and 10–15 mph winds OUT to left.

Favorite MIL Bats: Brice Turang, Jake Bauers, William Contreras

Bargain Bats: Luis Rengifo, Sal Frelick, Brandon Lockridge, Tyler Black

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Kansas City Royals vs. Tanner Bibee (RHP), CLE

Reminder: Monitor weather here.

Every hitter in the projected Royals lineup checks in at ≤ 10% pOwn%. After a six-game road trip, Kansas City returns home where the offense has been far more productive. They’ve been the worst road offense in baseball (2.94 runs/gm), but the fourth-best at home, averaging 5.47 runs per game. Against RHPs at home, they’re hitting .285 (3rd) with a .826 OPS (4th), .367 wOBA (4th), 125 wRC+ (4th), and a low 18.3% kRate (2nd-lowest). Like Chicago, the potential for late-game storms adds some risk, but if the weather holds off for a clean nine innings, there’s clear appeal here at low ownership.

Bibee is a solid arm, but nothing has really stood out this season. He enters with a 4.08 ERA, 4.26 xERA, 1.44 WHIP, and a 20.9% kRate – respectable, but not dominant numbers. He’s also been hit hard, allowing a 91.6 mph average exit velocity (9th percentile) and a 48.6% HardHit% (11th percentile). Cleveland’s bullpen has performed well recently (2.50 ERA over the last two weeks), but that’s paired with a 4.66 xFIP (9th-worst), suggesting some regression risk. They’ve also thrown 215 pitches over the last three days, so fatigue could come into play.

Favorite KC Bats: Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, Salvador Perez

Bargain Bats: Carter Jensen, Isaac Collins

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge, NYY vs. Shane Baz (RHP), BAL

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD vs. HOU (Opener + RHP Ryan Weiss or other BP arms)

OF Yordan Alvarez, HOU vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP), LAD

SS Elly De La Cruz, CIN vs. Edward Cabrera (RHP), CHC

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC vs. Tanner Bibee (RHP), CLE

3B Jose Ramirez, CLE vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), KC

OF Mike Trout, LAA vs. Davis Martin (RHP), CWS

1B Munetaka Murakami, CWS vs. Jose Soriano (RHP), LAA

2B Brice Turang, MIL vs. Kyle Leahy (RHP), STL

OF Jordan Walker, STL vs. Chad Patrick (RHP), MIL

1B Matt Olson, ATL vs. Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA

OF Seiya Suzuki, CHC vs. Chase Petty (RHP), CIN

1B Pete Alonso, BAL vs. Cam Schlittler (RHP), NYY

OF Julio Rodriguez, SEA vs. JR Ritchie (RHP), ATL

3B Manny Machado, SD vs. Trevor McDonald (RHP), SF

1B Rafael Devers, SF vs. Randy Vasquez (RHP), SD

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

To qualify as a bargain bat, hitters must be ≤ $4,000 on DraftKings.

C Carter Jensen, KC vs. Tanner Bibee (RHP), CLE

3B Alex Bregman, CHC vs. Chase Petty (RHP), CIN

C Moises Ballesteros, CHC vs. Chase Petty (RHP), CIN

1B Josh Naylor, SEA vs. JR Ritchie (RHP), ATL

OF Michael Harris II, ATL vs. Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA

OF TJ Friedl, CIN vs. Edward Cabrera (RHP), CHC

3B/OF Daniel Schneemann, CLE vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), KC

1B Michael Busch, CHC vs. Chase Petty (RHP), CIN

OF Jasson Dominguez, NYY vs. Shane Baz (RHP), BAL

C Carson Kelly, CHC vs. Chase Petty (RHP), CIN

OF Sal Frelick, MIL vs. Kyle Leahy (RHP), STL

OF Brandon Lockridge, MIL vs. Kyle Leahy (RHP), STL

OF Isaac Collins, KC vs. Tanner Bibee (RHP), CLE

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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