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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

It’s another all-day baseball Wednesday and, depending on your DFS site of choice, you’ll either be looking at a nine-game (FanDuel) or six-game (DraftKings) evening main slate. FanDuel includes the three games in the 6 o’clock ET window while DraftKings excludes them. The books are expecting some low-scoring matchups today with only two games carrying totals above 7.5 runs. That’s thanks to a combination of quality pitching and some poor hitting weather in a few spots. Speaking of weather, there are also a couple of games worth monitoring due to some threatening rain systems. Let’s see if we can crack the code. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣5/20 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts. Note: I’m not a meteorologist so don’t treat these forecast previews as gospel! It’s always best to run a pre-game weather check for any at-risk games.

Weather Key: 🟡 Chance for delay | 🟠 Elevated delay / PPD risk | 🔴 High PPD risk
🔵 Favorable for pitchers (cold/wind in) | 🟢 Favorable for hitters (warm/wind out)

• CLE at DET (6:40 ET, 7.5 O/U): FD main slate only. Cooler temps around 60 degrees with ~10 mph winds OUT to right. Mostly neutral conditions.

• NYM at WAS (6:45 ET, 9.5 O/U): FD main slate only. A scattered batch of storms rolls through the general area this evening. With a little luck, the worst of that storm system holds north of the ballpark. Any shift south, however, could spell significant trouble for this game. Definite spot to monitor closer to first pitch.

• TOR at NYY (7:05 ET, 7.5 O/U): A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for the NYC area with troublesome weather moving in around first pitch. A delay or late start seems probable with the risk of a PPD firmly on the table as well. Things could start clearing up around 9-10 pm, but that would be a long wait. Approach this one cautiously.

• BOS at KC (7:40 ET, 7.5 O/U): Mid-60s with 5-10 mph winds IN from center. Slight downgrade for bats.

• MIL at CHC (7:40 ET, 6.5 O/U): The 6.5 total tells you all you need to know about the weather at Wrigley tonight. Temps in the 50s with 15+ mph winds blowing IN from left. Very difficult home run hitting conditions. Pitchers get a sizable boost.

• ATH at LAA (9:38 ET, 9.5 O/U): Mid-80s at first pitch with light winds blowing OUT. Strong hitting weather.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Shohei Ohtani (RHP), LAD | DK: $11k, FD: $11.1k | at SD

On a slate where a strong argument can be made the majority of pitchers, it’s still difficult to look past Ohtani at the top. His pristine 0.82 ERA leads all MLB starters (min. 40.0 IP) and is backed by an excellent 2.31 xERA, 0.82 WHIP, 29.2% kRate, 14.4% SwStr%, and 6.4% BB%. Ohtani has also generated a career-best 50.9% GB%, a sizable jump from his lifetime 43.8% mark. His slate-leading 115 Stuff+ rating ranks fifth among all MLB starters, and he has worked at least six innings in all seven of his starts this season.

The matchup only strengthens the case. Ohtani has featured a seven-pitch arsenal this year, though his four-seam fastball (44.7% usage), sweeper (26.7%), curveball (11.5%), and splitter (10.9%) have been his primary weapons. Against that mix from right-handed pitchers, the Padres own an MLB-worst .193 AVG and .284 wOBA while also posting the highest strikeout rate in baseball at 28.6%. The Dodgers (-193 ML) enter as sizable favorites and Ohtani once again projects for six or seven dominant innings with elite strikeout upside. The biggest challenge, as usual, is simply fitting him into lineups with those lofty five-figure salaries.

Connelly Early (LHP), BOS | DK: $7k, FD: $9.9k | at KC

The sizable pricing gap makes Early far more appealing on DraftKings than FanDuel, but the 24-year-old lefty has quietly put together a respectable season overall. Across 47.2 innings, Early has recorded a 3.21 ERA, 4.16 xFIP, 1.20 WHIP, and 22.6% kRate. The 13.0% Barrel% is certainly higher than ideal and the gap between the ERA and xFIP does suggest some regression could eventually arrive. Still, the environment in Kansas City tonight should work in his favor with temperatures in the 60s and light winds blowing in from the outfield.

The matchup also helps. Against left-handed pitching over the last two weeks, the Royals have struggled badly, posting a .183 AVG, .542 OPS, .259 wOBA, .061 ISO, and 58 wRC+ across 158 plate appearances. Kansas City has avoided strikeouts reasonably well in those splits (17.1% kRate), but they also have not been getting on base consistently or showing much power. The strikeout ceiling may not be massive here, though this still profiles as a solid spot for Early to deliver a useful DFS outing, particularly at the DraftKings salary.

Aaron Civale (RHP), ATH | DK: $6.5k, FD: $9.7k | at LAA

This is another spot where DraftKings offers the much more appealing salary, making Civale a viable SP2 target there. He’s not a power arm by any means and instead relies heavily on command and pitch placement – his 113 Location+ rating leads all starters on today’s slate. Even with some concerning underlying contact metrics (48.0% HardHit%, 45.7% FB%, 91.3 mph average exit velocity allowed), Civale has still managed to pitch to a sharp 2.70 ERA across nine starts and has picked up the win bonus in each of his last three outings.

The matchup is the main attraction here. The Angels have been atrocious against right-handed pitching lately, ranking dead last over the last two weeks in AVG (.173), OPS (.484), wOBA (.227), ISO (.066), and wRC+ (39) while also carrying the second-highest strikeout rate at 26.9%. The hitting weather in Anaheim is fairly favorable tonight, but Los Angeles lacks many dangerous left-handed bats to pressure Civale’s splits. If the Angels continue swinging the bats this poorly, Civale should be in position for another useful outing at this $6,500 price point.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Cam Schlittler (RHP), NYY | DK: $10.7k, FD: $11.3k | vs. TOR (Monitor weather)

Kyle Harrison (LHP), MIL | DK: $8.7k, FD: $10.2k | at CHC

Michael Wacha (RHP), KC | DK: $8k, FD: $10.6k | vs. BOS

FanDuel Main Slate Only

Chris Sale (LHP), ATL | $11,500 | at MIA

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Athletics vs. Jack Kochanowicz (RHP), LAA

The Athletics should be one of the more popular stacks on a slate without many clear-cut options. They’ll draw a matchup against Kochanowicz, who has flashed some decent outings this season but still carries an underwhelming 4.56 ERA, 5.51 xERA, 15.0% kRate, and 11.0% BB%. The key against Kochanowicz is elevating the baseball. He has generated an elite 57.6% GB% (95th percentile), though he can be vulnerable when hitters manage to lift the ball in the air. He just surrendered three home runs to the Dodgers in his last outing and also struggled with the long ball in 2025, posting a 1.70 HR/9 and 18.4% HR/FB rate. The hitting environment in Anaheim is favorable tonight as well and, among the six mutually shared games on DraftKings and FanDuel, this is the lone matchup carrying a total above 7.5 runs. The Angels bullpen behind him has additionally struggled badly of late with a 6.54 ERA, 4.93 xFIP, and 1.64 WHIP over the last two weeks.

The matchup data also leans heavily toward the Athletics. Against Kochanowicz’s primary mix of sinkers, changeups, sliders, and four-seamers, the A’s rank fourth in both AVG (.266) and wOBA (.347) while also producing a strong 44.6% HardHit% and 6.6% Barrel/PA%. If Oakland can neutralize Kochanowicz’s elite groundball tendencies and consistently get underneath the baseball, there should be plenty of opportunity for damage before the Angels hand things over to their struggling bullpen.

Favorite ATH Bats: Nick Kurtz, Shea Langeliers, Brent Rooker

Bargain Bats: Zack Gelof, Jeff McNeil, Henry Bolte

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Carmen Mlodzinski (RHP), PIT

Mlodzinski is another inconsistent arm worth targeting and enters this matchup carrying a 6.39 ERA and 1.50 WHIP across his last five starts. When digging into the underlying contact metrics, things could arguably look even worse. He ranks in the bottom second percentile in both average exit velocity allowed (92.4 mph) and HardHit% (53.3%) while also ranking inside the bottom 10th percentile in xBA (.285). Pittsburgh’s bullpen behind him has struggled as well, posting bottom-five marks over the last two weeks in ERA (4.78), xFIP (4.84), and WHIP (1.57).

The Cardinals offense can run a bit hot-and-cold, but the bats have been rolling lately. Over their last seven games, St. Louis has produced a .279 AVG, .771 OPS, .341 wOBA, and 119 wRC+ while striking out only 16.5% of the time. Looking at a larger sample against right-handed pitching over the last month, the Cardinals rank eighth or better in AVG, OPS, ISO, and wRC+. Mlodzinski has also shown fairly traditional splits, struggling much more against left-handed hitters with a .383 wOBA allowed compared to just a .255 mark against righties. That doesn’t mean avoiding the STL right-handed bats entirely, but the lefties clearly receive a boost in this matchup, and St. Louis will be rolling out six left-handed hitters tonight.

Favorite STL Bats: Alec Burleson, JJ Wetherholt, Jordan Walker

Bargain Bats: Nolan Gorman, Cesar Prieto

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Edward Cabrera (RHP), CHC

Eight of nine hitters in the confirmed Brewers lineup are currently projected below 8% ownership. The stiff winds blowing in at Wrigley are obviously far from ideal for offense and are a major reason this game carries the slate’s lowest total at just 6.5 runs. That said, Milwaukee does not rely heavily on pure power production to generate offense. The Brewers rank second in MLB with 52 stolen bases this season and have been swinging the bats extremely well against right-handed pitching lately. Over the last two weeks versus righties, they rank second in AVG (.285), third in OPS (.764), third in wOBA (.342), and fourth in wRC+ (118) despite posting just a .130 ISO, which ranks only 23rd in those splits. This is an offense capable of manufacturing runs through contact, speed, and aggressive baserunning.

Cabrera is a talented starter, but he has not looked particularly sharp for much of the season. Across his last seven starts dating back to April 11th, Cabrera has produced a 5.26 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, .303 BAA, and .372 opponent wOBA. Home runs have been an issue during that stretch with eight allowed, though the weather tonight should help suppress that concern. Even so, Cabrera continues to allow plenty of traffic on the bases and this Brewers lineup has the type of speed and contact profile capable of creating problems without relying solely on the long ball.

Favorite MIL Bats: Brice Turang, Jackson Chourio, Christian Yelich

Bargain Bats: Sal Frelick, Garrett Mitchell, David Hamilton

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B Ben Rice, NYY vs. Trey Yesavage (RHP), TOR

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC vs. Connelly Early (LHP), BOS

1B Nick Kurtz, ATH vs. Jack Kochanowicz (RHP), LAA

2B Brice Turang, MIL vs. Edward Cabrera (RHP), CHC

2B Brandon Lowe, PIT vs. Michael McGreevy (RHP), STL

OF Kyle Tucker, LAD vs. Randy Vasquez (RHP), SD

SS Zach Neto, LAA vs. Aaron Civale (RHP), ATH

OF Pete Crow-Armstrong, CHC vs. Kyle Harrison (LHP), MIL

1B Alec Burleson, STL vs. Carmen Mlodzinski (RHP), PIT

1B Willson Contreras, BOS vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), KC

FanDuel Main Slate Only

OF Juan Soto, NYM vs. Zack Littell (RHP), WAS

OF James Wood, WAS vs. Zach Thornton (LHP), NYM

1B Matt Olson, ATL vs. Janson Junk (RHP), MIA

3B Jose Ramirez, CLE vs. Drew Anderson (RHP), DET

2B Xavier Edwards, MIA vs. Chris Sale (LHP), ATL

OF Riley Greene, DET vs. Tanner Bibee (RHP), CLE

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

To qualify as a bargain bat, hitters must be ≤ $4,000 on DraftKings.

OF Bryan Reynolds, PIT vs. Michael McGreevy (RHP), STL

OF Garrett Mitchell, MIL vs. Edward Cabrera (RHP), CHC

3B Zack Gelof, ATH vs. Jack Kochanowicz (RHP), LAA

1B Spencer Horwitz, PIT vs. Michael McGreevy (RHP), STL

2B Jeff McNeil, ATH vs. Jack Kochanowicz (RHP), LAA

OF Sal Frelick, MIL vs. Edward Cabrera (RHP), CHC

3B Nolan Gorman, STL vs. Carmen Mlodzinski (RHP), PIT

3B/SS David Hamilton, MIL vs. Edward Cabrera (RHP), CHC

C Carson Kelly, CHC vs. Kyle Harrison (LHP), MIL

OF Henry Bolte, ATH vs. Jack Kochanowicz (RHP), LAA

OF Ceddanne Rafaela, BOS vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), KC

3B Cesar Prieto, STL vs. Carmen Mlodzinski (RHP), PIT

2B/3B Isiah Kiner-Falefa, BOS vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), KC

FanDuel Main Slate Only

SS Bo Bichette, NYM vs. Zack Littell (RHP), WAS

OF Michael Harris II, ATL vs. Janson Junk (RHP), MIA

OF Carson Benge, NYM vs. Zack Littell (RHP), WAS

OF AJ Ewing, NYM vs. Zack Littell (RHP), WAS

OF Mike Yastrzemski, ATL vs. Janson Junk (RHP), MIA

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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