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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

An interesting nine-game slate kicks off this Monday evening. Judging by the totals, this one is expected to lean offense-heavy. Only two games carry over/unders below nine runs, and most matchups feature either favorable hitting conditions, shaky pitching, or both. We’ll also have a few weather spots worth monitoring throughout the evening, with a couple games carrying some risk of delays or shortened contests. It’s one of the more unique slates we’ve seen so far this season, so let’s see if we can pinpoint the right spots to attack. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣5/18 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts. Note: I’m not a meteorologist so don’t treat these forecast previews as gospel! It’s always best to run a pre-game weather check for any at-risk games.

Weather Key: 🟡 Chance for delay | 🟠 Elevated delay / PPD risk | 🔴 High PPD risk
🔵 Favorable for pitchers (cold/wind in) | 🟢 Favorable for hitters (warm/wind out)

• TOR at NYY (7:05 ET, 9.0 O/U): Mid-70s with 5–10 mph winds blowing right-to-left. If those winds shift more toward the outfield, bats would receive a slight boost. Mostly neutral conditions for now.

• BOS at KC (7:40 ET, 9.0 O/U): Most likely outcome here is a dry start followed by storms arriving later in the game, which introduces some risk of a shortened or suspended contest. Strong storms appear likely to move into the area during the middle-to-late innings and are expected to linger well into the night once they arrive. Definitely worth checking radar closer to lock to gauge confidence levels. Around 80 degrees with 15 mph winds blowing mostly right-to-left, though occasional shifts outward toward left field are possible.

• MIL at CHC (7:40 ET, 10.5 O/U): The total tells the story here. Wrigley sets up as a very favorable hitting environment tonight with temperatures around 75 degrees and 10–15 mph winds (with stronger gusts) blowing OUT toward left-center. Clear boost for bats.

• HOU at MIN (7:40 ET, 9.5 O/U): Similar setup to Royals/Red Sox. Dry conditions early before rain chances increase during the middle and later innings. Definite risk of delays or a shortened game, though confidence could still shift pending updated radar closer to first pitch.

• TEX at COL (8:40 ET, 9.5 O/U): Enough rain around the area to introduce some delay risk, though current expectations still lean toward this game getting a full nine innings. It’s Coors Field, but the weather itself isn’t especially hitter-friendly with temperatures in the 40s and light winds blowing IN from center.

• SF at ARI (9:40 ET, 9.0 O/U): Chase Field’s roof is scheduled to be open tonight. Temperatures in Phoenix should sit in the 80s during game time, which provides a noteworthy boost for bats compared to a closed-roof environment.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP), LAD | DK: $9.7k, FD: $10.5k | at SD

Pitching is somewhat tricky today, but there are still a few quality arms worth prioritizing and Yamamoto stands near the top of that list. He may not be putting together a full-blown Cy Young caliber campaign, but the overall results have still been quite good. Across 50.0 innings, Yamamoto owns a 3.60 ERA, 3.36 xFIP, 1.00 WHIP, 24.6% kRate, 5.1% BB%, and 111 Pitching+ rating. Unspectacular but clean numbers across the board. This matchup also carries one of the lowest totals on the slate at just seven runs, so the expectation here is clearly a lower-scoring, pitching-driven game environment.

Even after scoring 15 runs across their last two games, San Diego’s offense still hasn’t looked especially intimidating overall. Against RHPs over the last two weeks, the Padres rank 22nd or worse in AVG, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ while striking out at a 24.5% clip, which ranks seventh-highest in baseball during that span. They have shown some power (.175 ISO ranks sixth), but the overall offensive production has remained fairly limited. The matchup data against Yamamoto’s primary pitch mix is also extremely favorable. Against splitters, four-seamers, cutters, and curveballs from right-handed pitchers this season, San Diego ranks dead last in MLB in both AVG (.199) and wOBA (.301) while posting the second-highest kRate (25.6%) and third-highest Whiff% (26.9%). We haven’t really seen Yamamoto flash one of those true ceiling performances yet this season, but this certainly feels like one of the better opportunities for that type of outing to finally surface.

Ryan Weathers (LHP), NYY | DK: $8.6k, FD: $9.8k | vs. TOR

Weathers has been one of the more pleasant surprises in what has already been an outstanding Yankees rotation this season. Through eight starts, he owns a 3.00 ERA, slate-best 2.85 xFIP, 1.11 WHIP, 29.8% kRate, and 114 Location+ rating. Both the kRate and Location+ also lead this pitching slate. The biggest concern has been an elevated 11.5% Barrel%, though that issue has improved lately with Weathers allowing only four total barrels over the last month.

The matchup also lines up favorably against a Blue Jays offense that has underwhelmed for much of the year. Against left-handed pitching over the last month, Toronto owns just a .199 AVG alongside a .634 OPS, .286 wOBA, and 80 wRC+. While the Blue Jays are not typically a high-strikeout offense, their 21.1% kRate in those splits is still somewhat elevated by their standards. The salaries have climbed quickly thanks to Weathers’ recent success, but the upside here still compares favorably to the higher-priced arms on the slate.

JT Ginn (RHP), ATH | DK: $7.5k, FD: $7.1k | at LAA

While the DFS production hasn’t always jumped off the page, JT Ginn has quietly pieced together a respectable season. Across 43.1 innings, he owns a 3.12 ERA, 4.00 xFIP, 1.20 WHIP, 19.4% kRate, and 48.4% GB%. The strikeout rate is certainly below average, but this matchup gives him a chance to outperform that baseline. Ginn is also coming off his two best starts of the season, combining for 14 innings of one-run ball against the Phillies and Cardinals. Another positive is Ginn getting away from his extremely hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park, as he has averaged nearly 86% more FPPG on the road.

The matchup is clearly the main selling point here. The Angels continue to strike out at an absurd rate, which naturally boosts the appeal of a pitcher like Ginn who typically relies more on contact management than swing-and-miss stuff. Against RHPs over the last two weeks, Los Angeles ranks dead last in OPS (.557), wOBA (.255), wRC+ (57), and kRate (27.2%) while producing just a .199 AVG and .097 ISO. The matchup against Ginn’s pitch mix also works in his favor. Against sinkers, sliders, changeups, cutters, and four-seamers from righties this season, the Angels rank last in both AVG (.218) and kRate (25.6%). They’ve additionally been one of the weakest home offenses in baseball, averaging only 3.05 runs/game in Anaheim. Given Ginn’s recent form and the quality of this matchup, he makes plenty of sense as a lower-cost pitching option tonight.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Bryan Woo (RHP), SEA | DK: $9k, FD: $9.1k | vs. CWS

MacKenzie Gore (LHP), TEX | DK: $8k, FD: $8.4k | at COL (Monitor weather)

Noah Schultz (LHP), CWS | DK: $7.3k, FD: $7.9k | at SEA

Jose Quintana (LHP), COL | DK: $5.5k, FD: $6.3k | vs. TEX (Monitor weather)

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks (Logical fade spot today)

Texas Rangers vs. Jose Quintana (LHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. MacKenzie Gore (LHP), TEX

Non-Coors Stacks

New York Yankees vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), TOR

The Yankees return from a nine-game road trip and, when they’ve been at home, they have bordered on auto-stack territory. They’ve easily been the best home offense in baseball this season, averaging a ridiculous 6.55 runs/game in Yankee Stadium – more than a full run higher than the next-closest team (Brewers, 5.42 runs/gm). Against left-handed pitching at home this year (256 PAs), New York ranks first in OPS (.886), wOBA (.382), ISO (.286), and wRC+ (146).

Patrick Corbin hasn’t been a complete disaster this season and has actually managed a respectable 3.93 ERA across seven starts. The underlying numbers, however, paint a much uglier picture. Corbin owns a brutal 6.09 xERA alongside a modest 15.0% kRate and ranks inside the bottom 10th percentile in xERA, xBA (.312), fastball velocity (91.1 mph), Whiff%, and strikeout rate. Against his primary mix of sinker, slider, cutter, and changeup, the Yankees have produced the highest ISO and second-highest HardHit% in baseball. New York has also posted a high Whiff% against that mix, though Corbin simply doesn’t generate enough swing-and-miss for that to be overly concerning. Add in the fact that Corbin rarely works deep into games and Toronto’s bullpen has been fairly mediocre while logging plenty of recent innings, and this shapes up as one of the premier stack spots on the slate.

Favorite NYY Bats: Aaron Judge, Ben Rice, Cody Bellinger

Bargain Bats: Paul Goldschmidt, Amed Rosario, Anthony Volpe

Chicago Cubs vs. Brandon Sproat (RHP), MIL

Any time Wrigley gets warm temperatures with stiff winds blowing out, it immediately puts the bats into focus. Wrigley Field is arguably the most wind-sensitive park in baseball, and tonight’s forecast calls for 10–15 mph winds, with stronger gusts, blowing out toward left-center. The Cubs have also been excellent offensively at home this season, averaging 5.39 runs/game at Wrigley compared to 4.88 on the road. While their recent production against right-handed pitching has cooled off somewhat (98 wRC+ over the last two weeks), Chicago still owns a 121 wRC+ against RHPs at home this season, which ranks fourth-best in MLB.

Sproat has settled in nicely after a rough opening stretch and carries a respectable 3.86 ERA over his last five starts. Even so, there are still some concerns underneath the surface. Over the last month, he has allowed an elevated 50.0% FlyBall%, which has translated into a 1.90 HR/9 and 20.0% HR/FB rate during that span. Those tendencies become especially dangerous in tonight’s conditions at Wrigley. Milwaukee’s bullpen has been one of the hotter relief units lately, but if the Cubs can get to Sproat early, there’s a decent chance they avoid seeing too many of the Brewers’ higher-leverage bullpen arms later in the game.

Favorite CHC Bats: Michael Busch, Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong

Bargain Bats: Michael Conforto, Carson Kelly

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Chicago White Sox vs. Bryan Woo (RHP), SEA

Every hitter in the projected White Sox lineup is currently checking in below 5% pOwn%. Chicago has appeared in this section fairly often this season because, while the overall offense can be inconsistent, the power upside has been very real. The White Sox have already launched 43 home runs against right-handed pitching this year, tied for the fourth-most in MLB despite having the ninth-fewest at-bats against righties. Over the last two weeks versus RHPs, they rank second in baseball with a massive .249 ISO and first with a 19.8% HR/FB rate.

Woo is obviously a high-end pitcher and enters off back-to-back dominant outings, but there are still some underlying contact concerns worth noting. The 11 barrels he has allowed over the last month rank in the bottom fifth percentile, while his average batted-ball distance allowed (196 feet) sits in the bottom 10th percentile. His flyball rate has also sat at an elevated 52.6% this season. Seattle’s bullpen has been one of the better units in baseball, so this isn’t necessarily a spot to go overboard with a full stack, but there’s definitely enough home run upside here for a compact two- or three-man White Sox stack to provide some interesting leverage on this slate.

Favorite CWS Bats: Colson Montgomery, Munetaka Murakami, Miguel Vargas

Bargain Bats: Sam Antonacci, Andrew Benintendi

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge, NYY vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), TOR

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD vs. Michael King (RHP), SD

OF Yordan Alvarez, HOU vs. Simeon Woods Richardson (RHP – PLR), MIN

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC vs. Sonny Gray (RHP), BOS

OF Corbin Carroll, ARI vs. Robbie Ray (LHP), SF

1B Nick Kurtz, ATH vs. Walbert Urena (RHP), LAA

OF Mike Trout, LAA vs. JT Ginn (RHP), ATH

C Ryan Jeffers, MIN vs. Tatsuya Imai (RHP), HOU

OF Jackson Chourio, MIL vs. Shota Imanaga (LHP), CHC

C Hunter Goodman, COL vs. MacKenzie Gore (LHP), TEX

3B Josh Jung, TEX vs. Jose Quintana (LHP), COL

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR vs. Ryan Weathers (LHP), NYY

OF Julio Rodriguez, SEA vs. Noah Schultz (LHP), CWS

1B Michael Busch, CHC vs. Brandon Sproat (RHP), MIL

SS Colson Montgomery, CWS vs. Bryan Woo (RHP), SEA

OF Wilyer Abreu, BOS vs. Seth Lugo (RHP), KC

2B Luis Arraez, SF vs. Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI

SS Xander Bogaerts, SD vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP), LAD

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

To qualify as a bargain bat, hitters must be ≤ $4,000 on DraftKings.

1B Paul Goldschmidt, NYY vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), TOR

OF Teoscar Hernandez, LAD vs. Michael King (RHP), SD

OF Austin Martin, MIN vs. Tatsuya Imai (RHP), HOU

OF Sam Antonacci, CWS vs. Bryan Woo (RHP), SEA

3B Zack Gelof, ATH vs. Walbert Urena (RHP), LAA

2B/3B Amed Rosario, NYY vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), TOR

1B/3B Casey Schmitt, SF vs. Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI

3B Nolan Arenado, ARI vs. Robbie Ray (LHP), SF

C Gabriel Moreno, ARI vs. Robbie Ray (LHP), SF

1B Andrew Vaughn, MIL vs. Shota Imanaga (LHP), CHC

C Carson Kelly, CHC vs. Brandon Sproat (RHP), MIL

OF Michael Conforto, CHC vs. Brandon Sproat (RHP), MIL

1B/OF Gavin Sheets, SD vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP), LAD

SS Colt Emerson, SEA vs. Noah Schultz (LHP), CWS

SS Anthony Volpe, NYY vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), TOR

C Mickey Gasper, BOS vs. Seth Lugo (RHP), KC

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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