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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

It’s getaway day around MLB, so much of today’s action is packed into the afternoon window. Still, we’re left with a workable four-game evening slate beginning at 6:45 ET. By small-slate standards, this one actually looks pretty respectable with some appealing pitching options and enough stack candidates to make things interesting. The main issue will be the weather in Boston, where Phillies/Red Sox carries legitimate postponement risk. Going from a four-game slate to a three-gamer would be a bummer, so hopefully things end up working out at Fenway. Let’s put together a quick rundown and see if we can find the right pieces. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣5/14 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts. Note: I’m not a meteorologist so don’t treat these forecast previews as gospel! It’s always best to run a pre-game weather check for any at-risk games.

Weather Key: 🟡 Chance for delay | 🟠 Elevated delay / PPD risk | 🔴 High PPD risk
🔵 Favorable for pitchers (cold/wind in) | 🟢 Favorable for hitters (warm/wind out)

• PHI at BOS (6:45 ET, 7.0 O/U): Cold and wet conditions in Boston tonight. A fairly substantial batch of rain is expected around the area leading up to first pitch and extending into the evening hours. At a minimum, this game appears likely to begin in a delay, and whether it gets played may come down to when the rain clears out. Current projections have the steadier rain lingering until roughly the 7–8 pm range, though some weather sources push that timeline closer to 9–10 pm. If the rain exits on the earlier side, they should have a path to getting this game in. However, unless an early PPD gets announced, the longer that delay window stretches, the greater the postponement risk becomes. For now, I’m cautiously optimistic, but definitely check radar closer to lock.

• CHC at ATL (7:15 ET, 7.5 O/U): Around 70 degrees with 5–10 mph winds OUT to left. Slight bump for hitters.

• KC at CWS (7:40 ET, 8.0 O/U): Around 60 degrees with 5–10 mph winds blowing IN from left. Very minor downgrade for bats.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Chris Sale (LHP), ATL | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10.8k | vs. CHC

It’s still early in the 2026 season, but Chris Sale is putting together another excellent campaign and currently owns the third-best Cy Young odds in the NL. Through eight starts, he has compiled a 2.20 ERA, 3.16 xFIP, 0.88 WHIP, 29.3% kRate, 6.3% BB%, and a 117 Pitching+ rating, which ranks seventh among all MLB starters. The Chris Sale slider (39.7% USG%) remains one of the nastier pitches in baseball, generating an absurd 11.7 inches of induced horizontal break – +7.3 inches above league average. Opponents are hitting just .159 against the pitch while producing a microscopic 13.9% HardHit% and massive 42.3% kRate.

Despite recent struggles where Chicago has scored only four total runs across its last four games, this lineup is still dangerous enough to create some concern, even for an ace like Sale. That said, the Cubs have looked completely lost against left-handed pitching lately. It’s a smaller sample, but over the last two weeks versus southpaws, Chicago owns just a .145 AVG while ranking dead last in OPS (.399), wOBA (.188), ISO (.000), and wRC+ (16). Their 21.9% kRate in those splits sits closer to league average, but the bigger takeaway is simply that they have not been making quality contact. All eight of Chicago’s hits against lefties during that span have been singles.

To be fair, the Cubs have been one of the best offenses in baseball against left-handed pitching across the full season, ranking first in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+, so some positive regression should eventually come. Still, expecting that bounce-back to arrive against a pitcher of Sale’s caliber feels like a tough ask. Atlanta (-181 ML) is also tied with the Dodgers for the best win odds on this slate, further boosting Sale’s appeal tonight.

Emmet Sheehan (RHP), LAD | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.5k | vs. SF

Sheehan had a rough start to the season with a couple of shaky outings, but he has looked much better over his last five appearances. During that stretch, he owns a 3.71 ERA backed by an excellent 2.42 xFIP alongside a 1.16 WHIP, tiny 4.6% BB%, and impressive 32.1% kRate. The competition level during that run makes it even more encouraging. Sheehan faced several dangerous offenses including Atlanta, Chicago, and St. Louis – all teams that rank 11th or better in wRC+ against RHPs this season – and he also navigated a start at Coors Field in that stretch.

He’ll be on his home mound tonight, where the splits throughout his career have been dramatically better. Sheehan has averaged roughly 55% more FPPG at home and, across 169.1 career innings, owns a 2.68 ERA and 31.3% kRate in Dodger Stadium compared to a 5.75 ERA and 24.9% kRate on the road. A gap of over three runs in the ERA feels far more like a reliable trend rather than statistical noise.

The Giants have been swinging the bats noticeably better lately and have already locked up at least a split in this series after winning the first two games. Even so, the overall production against right-handed pitching still lands closer to league average. Over the last two weeks against RHPs, San Francisco ranks in the middle of the pack in OPS (.703), wOBA (.308), wRC+ (98), and kRate (21.6%). Sheehan has also handled this roster well historically, limiting the current Giants lineup to a .088 AVG and .143 wOBA with a 31.6% kRate across 38 plate appearances. His last outing against San Francisco came on September 21st of last season when he fired seven innings of one-hit ball with zero walks and 10 strikeouts. The biggest concern remains his splits versus left-handed hitters (.387 wOBA, .307 ISO, 1.64 WHIP, 2.45 HR/9), but if he can keep that damage in check, another productive outing should be well within reach.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Landen Roupp (RHP), SF | DK: $8.7k, FD: $9.5k | at LAD

Jesus Luzardo (LHP), PHI | DK: $8k, FD: $8.7k | at BOS (Monitor weather)

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Kansas City Royals (RHBs Preferred) vs. Anthony Kay (LHP), CWS

This four-game slate features a high percentage of quality arms, which makes Anthony Kay stand out pretty clearly as the weakest starter on the board. His 4.69 ERA is backed by a far uglier 6.70 xERA (bottom fifth percentile) along with a bloated 1.57 WHIP and modest 15.3% kRate. In his defense, Kay has been dominant against left-handed hitters, allowing just a .063 AVG, .131 wOBA, .000 ISO, 0.50 WHIP, and 30.6% kRate in those matchups. Right-handed hitters, however, have absolutely torched him to the tune of a .343 AVG, .434 wOBA, .257 ISO, 2.05 WHIP, and a lowly 11.0% kRate. You’d be hard-pressed to find many starters with splits this drastic.

That should work heavily in Kansas City’s favor tonight. The Royals should be expected to roll out a heavily right-handed lineup with Vinnie Pasquantino and perhaps Carter Jensen likely standing as the only lefty bats. Chicago’s bullpen has been decent overall lately, though not particularly intimidating, and the White Sox have also leaned heavily on their relievers recently with seven different bullpen arms combining for 138 pitches across the last two days. That could leave Chicago somewhat limited in terms of bullpen flexibility tonight.

Kansas City also enters this matchup swinging the bats well against left-handed pitching. Over the last month versus southpaws, the Royals have been above average across the board with a .242 AVG (13th), .735 OPS (11th), .328 wOBA (9th), .169 ISO (7th), 104 wRC+ (10th), and elite 16.7% kRate (second-lowest). They’ve also produced the fourth-highest HardHit% (43.9%) against Kay’s primary mix of four-seam, sweeper, cutter, sinker, and changeup.

Update: Pasquatch and Kyle Isbel are the only lefty bats in the starting lineup today, as seen below.

Favorite KC Bats: Bobby Witt Jr., Maikel Garcia, Salvador Perez

Bargain Bats: Lane Thomas, Nick Loftin

Atlanta Braves vs. Ben Brown (RHP), CHC

Ben Brown has posted some excellent overall numbers this season with a 1.82 ERA, 3.25 xFIP, 0.91 WHIP, .171 BAA, 23.7% kRate, and 52.6% GB%. However, much of that success has come in a bullpen role where he has frequently entered games in favorable situations. Brown does have prior starting experience, but he shifted into a long-relief role during the second half of last season and didn’t make his return to the rotation until last Friday. In that outing, he tossed four no-hit innings on just 46 pitches, though it came against a Rangers offense that has struggled badly against right-handed pitching, especially at home. With this being only his second start back in the rotation, Brown is likely working under some form of pitch limit and may only reach the 60-pitch range before turning things over to the bullpen.

Chicago’s relief corps has been fairly reliable for much of the season and enters relatively fresh after Shota Imanaga covered seven innings yesterday, forcing the Cubs to use just one reliever. Even so, the numbers from that bullpen have been shakier recently with them posting the 10th-worst ERA (4.15), third-highest walk rate (12.7%), and second-highest HR/9 (1.38) over the last two weeks.

Primarily, this stack is really about how dangerous Atlanta’s offense has been against right-handed pitching. Over the last month, the Braves lead all of baseball against RHPs in AVG (.272), OPS (.806), wOBA (.353), ISO (.200), and wRC+ (125) while maintaining a respectable 21.1% kRate. They’ve also matched up well against Brown’s primary mix of four-seam, knuckle curve, and sinker, posting a .288 AVG, .370 wOBA, and 47.5% HardHit% against those pitches. Add in favorable hitting conditions at Truist Park with temperatures around 70 degrees and winds blowing out to left, and this shapes up as one of the better offensive spots on the slate – especially once Chicago inevitably starts leaning on its bullpen by the middle innings.

Favorite ATL Bats: Matt Olson, Drake Baldwin, Michael Harris II

Bargain Bats: Mauricio Dubon, Dominic Smith, Mike Yastrzemski

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Boston Red Sox vs. Jesus Luzardo (LHP), PHI

Reminder: Monitor weather closely here.

Every hitter in Boston’s confirmed lineup is currently sitting below 10% pOwn%, which is pretty unusual on a four-game slate. Luzardo is obviously a talented starter, but his season has been extremely volatile. He has allowed at least five earned runs in four starts already, while holding opponents to two earned runs or fewer in the other four outings. That inconsistency has resulted in a slate-worst 5.98 ERA. The underlying metrics tell a very different story, however, as Luzardo also owns a stellar 2.40 xFIP that trails only Jacob Misiorowski among qualified MLB starters. A wildly inflated .386 BABIP has played a major role in the ugly ERA, though we’ll see whether Boston can continue that trend tonight. Philadelphia’s bullpen behind him has also been fairly mediocre overall.

It’s also worth pointing out how well the Red Sox have handled left-handed pitching lately. Over the last month against southpaws, Boston ranks top-five in AVG (.289), OPS (.777), wOBA (.346), and wRC+ (114). Interestingly enough, the Red Sox also lead baseball with a .370 BABIP in those splits, which lines up directly against Luzardo’s rough BABIP luck this season. One concern, however, is Boston’s bizarre lack of home production. The Red Sox have recently overtaken Texas as the worst home offense in baseball this season, averaging only 2.86 runs/game at Fenway Park. That’s a strange development considering Fenway is typically one of the better hitting environments in MLB.

Even so, if you’re looking for leverage on this small slate, mixing in a compact two- or three-man Boston stack makes some sense, especially if ownership remains this suppressed. Just keep a close eye on the weather, as a lengthy delay could easily push this game toward postponement territory.

Favorite BOS Bats: Willson Contreras, Wilyer Abreu, Ceddanne Rafaela

Bargain Bats: Trevor Story, Andruw Monasterio

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD vs. Landen Roupp (RHP), SF

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC vs. Anthony Kay (LHP), CWS

OF Kyle Schwarber, PHI vs. Ranger Suarez (LHP), BOS

1B Matt Olson, ATL vs. Ben Brown (RHP), CHC

3B Miguel Vargas, CWS vs. Kris Bubic (LHP), KC

2B Nico Hoerner, CHC vs. Chris Sale (LHP), ATL

1B Willson Contreras, BOS vs. Jesus Luzardo (LHP), PHI

1B Rafael Devers, SF vs. Emmet Sheehan (RHP), LAD

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

To qualify as a bargain bat, hitters must be ≤ $4,000 on DraftKings.

3B Alex Bregman, CHC vs. Chris Sale (LHP), ATL

2B Luis Arraez, SF vs. Emmet Sheehan (RHP), LAD

OF Michael Harris II, ATL vs. Ben Brown (RHP), CHC

2B Chase Meidroth, CWS vs. Kris Bubic (LHP), KC

1B/OF Dominic Smith, ATL vs. Ben Brown (RHP), CHC

OF Ceddanne Rafaela, BOS vs. Jesus Luzardo (LHP), PHI

2B/3B Nick Loftin, KC vs. Anthony Kay (LHP), CWS

OF Mauricio Dubon, ATL vs. Ben Brown (RHP), CHC

C Salvador Perez, KC vs. Anthony Kay (LHP), CWS

OF Mike Yastrzemski, ATL vs. Ben Brown (RHP), CHC

OF Lane Thomas, KC vs. Anthony Kay (LHP), CWS

OF Randal Grichuk, CWS vs. Kris Bubic (LHP), KC

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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