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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Another 10-game slate is on tap this Wednesday evening. Pitching looks excellent at the top with a few additional arms outside the upper pricing tier that are worth mixing into the conversation as well. Only four teams carry implied totals of at least 4.5 runs, so identifying the right stacks and finding some lower-owned offensive upside may end up being the biggest challenge on the slate. Weather also looks relatively cooperative once again, with the Tigers/Mets game being the lone matchup that carries any real concern at the moment. It’s shaping up to be a tricky slate, but there are definitely some edges to uncover. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣5/13 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts. Note: I’m not a meteorologist so don’t treat these forecast previews as gospel! It’s always best to run a pre-game weather check for any at-risk games.

Weather Key: 🟡 Chance for delay | 🟠 Elevated delay / PPD risk | 🔴 High PPD risk
🔵 Favorable for pitchers (cold/wind in) | 🟢 Favorable for hitters (warm/wind out)

• DET at NYM (7:10 ET, 8.0 O/U): The current forecast suggests the more significant rain should hold off until later tonight after the game wraps up. Still worth checking radar closer to lock in case the timing on those late-arriving storms shifts earlier. Stiff 15–20 mph winds blowing OUT to left should provide a noticeable boost to bats.

• CHC at ATL (7:15 ET, 8.5 O/U): Mid-70s with 5–10 mph winds OUT to left. Favorable hitting conditions.

• STL at ATH (9:40 ET, 10.0 O/U): Around 80 degrees at first pitch with 5–10 mph winds OUT to left. Another quality hitting environment in a park that has already played extremely hitter-friendly this season.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Jacob Misiorowski (RHP), MIL | DK: $10.5k, FD: $10.9k | vs. SD

“The Miz” has been phenomenal all season and has taken things to another level lately, tossing 11.1 consecutive scoreless innings over his last two starts while allowing just two hits and piling up 19 strikeouts. Across 44.0 innings this season, Misiorowski owns a 2.45 ERA, MLB-best 2.39 xFIP, 0.95 WHIP, massive 39.5% kRate, and 17.1% SwStr%. Both the xFIP and kRate lead all qualified MLB starters. The raw stuff is absurd. Misiorowski averages 99.5 mph on his fastball (99th percentile) and also ranks in the 100th percentile in extension, causing those triple-digit heaters to “play up” even faster on hitters. As overpowering as the fastball has been, the secondary pitches have been equally nasty. Opponents are hitting just .120 against his curveball and .111 against the slider, while nobody has managed a hit off his changeup yet, albeit in a limited sample (16 changeups thrown this season). To no major surprise, Misiorowski’s 125 Stuff+ rating is another metric where he leads all MLB starters.

San Diego now gets the unenviable task of trying to solve Misiorowski while entering in rough offensive form. Against RHPs over the last two weeks (325 PAs), the Padres rank dead last in AVG (.176), OPS (.577), and wOBA (.260) while checking in 29th in wRC+ (66). They’ve also struck out at a 25.5% clip in those splits, which ranks sixth-highest in baseball. The matchup data against Misiorowski’s primary mix of four-seam, slider, and curveball isn’t encouraging either, as the Padres own just a .208 AVG (28th) against those pitches this season along with a 28.6% Whiff% (9th-highest). Everything lines up for another dominant outing from Misiorowski tonight.

Max Meyer (RHP), MIA | DK: $8k, FD: $9.1k | at MIN

Most people will likely concentrate the bulk of their pitching exposure around the top four or five arms on this slate, but there are still a few interesting names in the mid-tier range. Max Meyer stands out among that group. The fourth-year righty has been pitching very well over his last five starts dating back to April 14th, posting a 2.30 ERA, 3.20 xFIP, 0.95 WHIP, .194 BAA, 27.5% kRate, and 6.4% BB% during that stretch. Oddly enough, the DFS production hasn’t always fully reflected those numbers because Miami has frequently pulled him once he reaches the 80-pitch range. That said, Meyer threw a season-high 94 pitches in his most recent outing, so perhaps the leash is finally beginning to lengthen toward a more traditional starter workload. Meyer’s 13.5% SwStr% also stands out as one of the best marks on the slate behind only Ohtani, Misiorowski, Cease, and Imanaga – the four most expensive arms on the slate. He has also shown balanced splits with an identical 25.6% kRate against both lefties and righties this season, which is encouraging against a Minnesota lineup that features a fairly even mix of handedness throughout the order.

The Twins have received productive at-bats from several hitters against right-handed pitching, especially Byron Buxton at the top of the lineup, but overall this has still been a fairly average offense recently. Against RHPs over the last two weeks, Minnesota owns a 98 wRC+ alongside a somewhat elevated 23.2% kRate. There are still some legitimate concerns here, however. Meyer’s production has historically dipped on the road, and the Twins have averaged 4.90 runs/game at home this season. Minnesota has also handled Meyer’s two primary pitches very well. Against right-handed sliders and sweepers, the Twins lead baseball with a .338 wOBA. Still, if you’re looking for a lower-owned arm with legitimate upside – especially if the pitch count is truly trending upward – there’s enough here to justify taking some shots on Meyer in tournaments.

Ryne Nelson (RHP), ARI | DK: $6.7k, FD: $6.8k | at TEX

If you’re going for a cheap arm – primarily as an SP2 on DraftKings – Ryne Nelson has a chance to pay off his modest salaries. His recent stretch has been volatile with four encouraging outings mixed alongside a pair of disasters. In those four better starts, Nelson allowed just one earned run in each appearance. The blow-ups, however, were ugly, as Toronto tagged him for eight earned runs while recording only one out before being pulled, and San Diego got to him for six earned across five innings in the following outing. It’s admittedly a bit of cherry-picking, but if we isolate those four productive starts against the Mets (twice), Orioles, and Cubs, Nelson posted a 1.54 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, .163 BAA, 25.0% kRate, and 5.4% BB%.

There’s obviously plenty of volatility attached to his profile, and some of the recent Statcast data remains concerning, but the matchup and ballpark help offset some of that risk tonight. Texas has been dreadful offensively at home this season, averaging an MLB-worst 2.85 runs/game. The Rangers did finally break through for seven runs last night – their highest total at home all year – but they could just as easily slide back toward their usual production if Nelson is locating well. Against RHPs at home this season, Texas owns only a .223 AVG, .636 OPS, .288 wOBA, and 82 wRC+ with a middling 21.5% kRate. Globe Life Field has also played as the most pitcher-friendly park in baseball this year. This is far from a safe option, but the matchup and environment make Nelson an intriguing salary-saving arm, and something in the neighborhood of ~20 DKFP is certainly attainable.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Shohei Ohtani (RHP), LAD | DK: $10.7k, FD: $11.1k | vs. SF

Dylan Cease (RHP), TOR | DK: $10k, FD: $10.7k | vs. TB

Shota Imanaga (LHP), CHC | DK: $9k, FD: $10.2k | at ATL

Framber Valdez (LHP), DET | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8k | at NYM

Christian Scott (RHP), NYM | DK: $7k, FD: $7.8k | vs. DET

Griffin Jax (RHP), TB | DK: $5.5k, FD: $7k | at TOR (DK SP2 Preferred)

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Seattle Mariners vs. Lance McCullers Jr. (RHP), HOU

We’ll head right back to the Mariners after they came through with a 10-spot last night. Seattle continues to swing the bats well, ranking top-10 against RHPs over the last two weeks in OPS, wOBA, ISO, and wRC+. Cal Raleigh also finally snapped out of his prolonged slump with a multi-hit performance. More than anything, though, this remains about continuing to attack a Houston pitching staff that has been the worst in baseball this season.

McCullers enters with a slate-worst 7.41 ERA. To his credit, the underlying numbers suggest he hasn’t been quite that bad, as his 4.16 xFIP paints a somewhat more reasonable picture and the 25.0% kRate is still respectable. Even so, there are plenty of issues here. McCullers continues to allow traffic with a 1.50 WHIP, and the 13.5% BB% remains a major concern. The quality of contact has also been rough. He ranks inside the bottom 15th percentile in fastball velocity (91.4 mph), average exit velocity allowed (91.2 mph), and HardHit% (48.3%). Left-handed hitters have given him particular trouble as well, producing a .376 wOBA and .233 ISO against him this season. Seattle is expected to roll out seven lefties in tonight’s lineup, which only enhances the appeal of this stack.

The Mariners chased Tatsuya Imai after four innings last night, though Houston did at least manage to preserve parts of the bullpen by getting multiple innings from both AJ Blubaugh (46 pitches) and Jayden Murray (49 pitches). Even so, this remains the worst bullpen in baseball with a 6.02 ERA, 4.93 xFIP, 1.62 WHIP, and 1.69 HR/9, and the Astros are still somewhat limited in relief depth with several bullpen arms remaining on the IL.

Favorite SEA Bats: Julio Rodriguez, Randy Arozarena, Cal Raleigh

Bargain Bats: Josh Naylor, Brendan Donovan, Luke Raley, Dominic Canzone

St. Louis Cardinals vs. JT Ginn (RHP), ATH

It’s difficult to completely ignore this game once again with another slate-high 10-run total attached to it. Conditions at Sutter Health Park, which has easily been the most hitter-friendly environment in baseball this season, once again favor offense with warm temperatures and winds blowing out. The Cardinals haven’t been an especially dangerous offense against RHPs lately (102 wRC+ over the last two weeks ranks 14th), but they have been excellent on the road all season, averaging 5.24 runs/game away from home, which ranks fourth in baseball. St. Louis has also shown solid power against Ginn’s primary mix of sinker, cutter, slider, and changeup, ranking 10th in ISO (.166) while tying for fifth in home runs (19) against those pitches.

Ginn is coming off by far his best outing of the season after spinning eight innings of one-run ball against Philadelphia. Now, however, he returns home where things have gone much differently. In a limited 13.0-inning sample at Sutter Health Park this season, Ginn owns a rough 7.62 ERA, 6.10 xFIP, 1.69 WHIP, 15.0% kRate, and ugly 16.7% BB%. The fantasy production split has been drastic as well, with Ginn averaging nearly 96% fewer FPPG at home compared to on the road (which goes beyond just this season). He’ll also be backed by an Athletics bullpen that continues to struggle, posting a 6.25 ERA, 4.55 xFIP, and 1.49 WHIP over the last two weeks.

Favorite STL Bats: JJ Wetherholt, Alec Burleson, Jordan Walker

Bargain Bats: Nolan Gorman, Ivan Herrera, Nathan Church

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Chicago Cubs vs. JR Ritchie (RHP), ATL

I was a bit surprised to see every hitter in the Cubs’ confirmed lineup checking in below 5% pOwn%. Chicago is definitely in a mini-slump offensively after getting shut out in the final two games against Texas before managing just two runs on one hit in last night’s loss to Atlanta. Even so, this remains one of the better offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching. Over the last month, the Cubs rank top-five in OPS, ISO, and wRC+ in those splits.

They’ll now face a young and inexperienced arm in JR Ritchie, who is making just his fourth career MLB start. The talent is obvious, as Ritchie currently ranks as Atlanta’s No. 1 prospect according to FanGraphs, but there have still been some growing pains early on. While the 3.63 ERA looks respectable at first glance, the underlying metrics are far shakier with a 5.41 xFIP, 16.0% BB%, and 1.50 WHIP. His walk rate is also nearly as high as the 17.4% kRate, which obviously creates opportunities for opposing offenses to generate traffic. Atlanta’s bullpen has been one of the better units in baseball this season, but if the Cubs can get to Ritchie early, there’s a decent chance they avoid most of the Braves’ premium late-inning relievers – especially if Shota Imanaga is able to keep Atlanta’s offense relatively quiet on the other side.

Favorite CHC Bats: Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, Pete Crow-Armstrong

Bargain Bat: Michael Busch

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Yordan Alvarez, HOU vs. Bryce Miller (RHP), SEA

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC vs. Noah Schultz (LHP), CWS

1B Munetaka Murakami, CWS vs. Seth Lugo (RHP), KC

OF Byron Buxton, MIN vs. Max Meyer (RHP), MIA

OF Juan Soto, NYM vs. Framber Valdez (LHP), DET

C Shea Langeliers, ATH vs. Matthew Liberatore (LHP), STL

2B Brice Turang, MIL vs. Michael King (RHP), SD

1B/C Liam Hicks, MIA vs. Simeon Woods Richardson (RHP), MIN

2B JJ Wetherholt, STL vs. JT Ginn (RHP), ATH

SS Kevin McGonigle, DET vs. Christian Scott (RHP), NYM

OF Andy Pages, LAD vs. Robbie Ray (LHP), SF

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR vs. Griffin Jax (RHP), TB

OF Julio Rodriguez, SEA vs. Lance McCullers Jr. (RHP), HOU

1B Ildemaro Vargas, ARI vs. Kumar Rocker (RHP), TEX

2B Ozzie Albies, ATL vs. Shota Imanaga (LHP), CHC

OF Ian Happ, CHC vs. JR Ritchie (RHP), ATL

3B Josh Jung, TEX vs. Ryne Nelson (RHP), ARI

1B Jonathan Aranda, TB vs. Dylan Cease (RHP), TOR

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

To qualify as a bargain bat, hitters must be ≤ $4,000 on DraftKings.

OF Riley Greene, DET vs. Christian Scott (RHP), NYM

1B Michael Busch, CHC vs. JR Ritchie (RHP), ATL

C Ivan Herrera, STL vs. JT Ginn (RHP), ATH

3B Kazuma Okamoto, TOR vs. Griffin Jax (RHP), TB

C Willson Contreras, MIL vs. Michael King (RHP), SD

OF Chandler Simpson, TB vs. Dylan Cease (RHP), TOR

1B Josh Naylor, SEA vs. Lance McCullers Jr. (RHP), HOU

OF Sam Antonacci, CWS vs. Seth Lugo (RHP), KC

3B Nolan Gorman, STL vs. JT Ginn (RHP), ATH

OF Luke Raley, SEA vs. Lance McCullers Jr. (RHP), HOU

3B Nolan Arenado, ARI vs. Kumar Rocker (RHP), TEX

3B/OF Zack Gelof, ATH vs. Matthew Liberatore (LHP), STL

OF Dominic Canzone, SEA vs. Lance McCullers Jr. (RHP), HOU

OF Yohendrick Pinango, TOR vs. Griffin Jax (RHP), TB

OF/SS AJ Ewing, NYM vs. Framber Valdez (LHP), DET

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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