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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

A loaded 10-game Tuesday slate is on tap tonight. Pitching looks decent enough overall, but this feels like a slate that could still trend fairly high-scoring with several strong hitting environments and a handful of favorable offensive matchups to target. From a weather standpoint, the Royals/White Sox game is really the only matchup that needs close attention heading into lock. There’s plenty to like on this slate, so let’s see what we can piece together. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣5/12 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts. Note: I’m not a meteorologist so don’t treat these forecast previews as gospel! It’s always best to run a pre-game weather check for any at-risk games.

Weather Key: 🟡 Chance for delay | 🟠 Elevated delay / PPD risk | 🔴 High PPD risk
🔵 Favorable for pitchers (cold/wind in) | 🟢 Favorable for hitters (warm/wind out)

• DET at NYM (7:10 ET, 7.5 O/U): Around 60 degrees with ~10 mph winds OUT to left. Still mostly neutral conditions overall given the pitcher-friendly ballpark.

• CHC at ATL (7:15 ET, 8.5 O/U): Around 70 degrees with 5–10 mph winds blowing IN from left. Mostly neutral conditions here as well.

• MIA at MIN (7:40 ET, 9.0 O/U): Mid-60s with strong 15–20 mph winds OUT to right. Boost for bats.

• KC at CWS (7:40 ET, 9.5 O/U): The one game to monitor on this slate. Rain is around the area during the afternoon before clearing ahead of first pitch, but another batch of rain could move in later in the evening and potentially interrupt the game mid-way through. Current expectation is that they’ll get the game in, though an in-game delay remains possible. Check the radar closer to lock in case conditions trend worse. Temperatures near 70 degrees with swirling ~15 mph winds that should mostly blow IN from right, though occasional shifts toward right-to-left or even OUT to left are possible.

• STL at ATH (9:40 ET, 10.0 O/U): Around 80 degrees at first pitch with 10-15 mph winds OUT to left. Strong hitting environment in a park that already plays very hitter-friendly.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP), LAD | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10.9k | vs. SF

We still haven’t seen a truly massive fantasy outing from Yamamoto this season, but he has been very solid overall outside of a couple of shaky starts. He enters outing No. 8 with a 3.09 ERA, 3.52 xFIP, 1.01 WHIP, 23.5% kRate, 12.9% SwStr%, and 5.9% BB%. Based on that swinging-strike rate, which ranks second among today’s starters, there’s a strong case that more strikeouts are coming as the season progresses. The Dodgers are also massive favorites tonight (-328 ML), by far the heaviest on the slate. Los Angeles hasn’t exactly been playing up to expectations lately after following a 15-4 start with a 9-13 stretch, but the Dodgers are still 5-2 in Yamamoto’s starts this season, which gives him a major shot at securing the win bonus tonight.

The Giants broke out offensively against a struggling Roki Sasaki and the Dodgers bullpen last night, piling up nine runs on 12 hits and six walks. Against Yamamoto, though, this lineup projects much differently. Over the last month against RHPs, San Francisco ranks bottom-10 in OPS, wOBA, ISO, and wRC+. The strikeout rate hasn’t been especially high in those splits (20.6%), but the matchup against Yamamoto’s arsenal still looks favorable for the Dodgers ace. Against his primary pitch mix of splitter, four-seam, cutter, and curveball, the Giants rank 28th in xwOBA (.312) while also posting the fifth-lowest HardHit% (39.9%). Their kRate also ticks up slightly to 21.8% against that mix. The current Giants roster has struggled badly against Yamamoto historically as well, producing just a .181 AVG and .242 wOBA with a hefty 28.8% kRate across 118 plate appearances. All things considered, this sets up as a rock-solid spot for six or seven quality innings with reasonable strikeout upside and a very good chance at the win.

Jack Flaherty (RHP), DET | DK: $7.3k, FD: $7.6k | at NYM

The more I dig into this pitching pool, the more I feel like I may have oversold it a bit by labeling it “decent enough” in the intro. Still, Jack Flaherty does stand out as an interesting option in the $7k range. The overall numbers have been rough with a 5.56 ERA, 5.16 xFIP, 1.65 WHIP, and ugly 16.0% BB%, but the strikeout upside has remained intact with a 25.9% kRate. He’s also coming off one of his best outings of the season, punching out 10 Red Sox hitters across five innings while allowing just two runs. Perhaps most importantly, he issued only one walk in that start, which was a major improvement considering how badly his command has hurt him this season.

Flaherty was once viewed as an ace-level arm, though injuries and inconsistency have kept him from fully recapturing that form. Still, there’s at least some upside here if he can build off that last outing. The matchup helps. While the Mets offense has shown slight improvement recently, it still ranks among the weakest in baseball overall. Against RHPs over the last month, New York owns just a .216 AVG (30th), .628 OPS (30th), .282 wOBA (30th), and 80 wRC+ (29th). The strikeout rate in those splits sits at a fairly ordinary 21.3%, though that’s still higher than Boston’s mark against righties over that same span (20.6%) – the same lineup Flaherty just carved up for 10 strikeouts. He’s far from a safe option, but the strikeout upside at these price points is enough to keep him firmly in the mix if he can avoid the walks and limit the damage when traffic builds.

Brandon Sproat (RHP), MIL | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.9k | vs. SD

Sproat got off to a rough start in 2026, but the recent form has been noticeably better. Over his last four starts (20.1 IP), he has posted a respectable 3.54 ERA, 4.13 xFIP, 1.13 WHIP, .211 BAA, and 24.7% kRate. There’s still plenty of refinement needed in his overall profile, but the raw tools are obvious. Sproat brings premium velocity to the mound with a 96.8 mph average fastball (85th percentile), and you don’t earn a top-40 overall prospect ranking from FanGraphs without having legitimate big league stuff. Milwaukee has also handled him somewhat cautiously, as he hasn’t exceeded 82 pitches in any of those last four outings. Because of that, he’s probably best viewed as an SP2 target on DraftKings where the $6,300 salary keeps him very affordable.

Despite now sitting atop the NL West standings at 24-16, San Diego’s offense hasn’t exactly been firing on all cylinders lately, especially against right-handed pitching. Over the last two weeks against RHPs (315 PAs), the Padres rank near the bottom of baseball in virtually every key category with a .174 AVG (30th), .575 OPS (30th), .259 wOBA (30th), and 65 wRC+ (29th). They’ve also struck out at a 25.1% clip in those splits, which ranks seventh-highest in MLB during that stretch. If those trends continue tonight, Sproat has a realistic path to five or six productive innings at a very manageable salary.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Shane McClanahan (LHP), TB | DK: $9k, FD: $10.3k | at TOR

Freddy Peralta (RHP), NYM | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.6k | vs. DET

Bryan Woo (RHP), SEA | DK: $8.7k, FD: $9.8k | at HOU

Eury Perez (RHP), MIA | DK: $8.1k, FD: $9.4k | at MIN

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Athletics vs. Andre Pallante (RHP), STL

The Athletics return home to Sutter Health Park, which has played as the No. 1 hitter-friendly venue in baseball this season. They’ve taken advantage of it as well, averaging 5.06 runs/game at home while emerging as one of the better offenses in the league in that split. The recent form has also been impressive. Against RHPs over the last two weeks, the A’s rank fifth or better in AVG (.270), OPS (.784), wOBA (.349), and wRC+ (118) while maintaining a sub-20% kRate. Warm temperatures along with 10–15 mph winds blowing out to left have also helped push this matchup to the slate’s only double-digit total.

Pallante pieced together a nice three-start run in April against Houston, Seattle, and Pittsburgh before getting knocked around by Milwaukee in his most recent outing (6.0 IP, 8 H, 2 BB, 5 ER, 3 K). On the season, he owns a 4.34 ERA, 4.52 xFIP, 1.37 WHIP, and modest 17.6% kRate. He does an excellent job generating groundballs (53.4% GB%, 90th percentile), though when hitters do elevate against him, the damage can come quickly. Similar to Coors Field, Sutter Health Park can create chaos once balls start getting put in play, and Pallante’s lack of swing-and-miss ability leaves room for that volatility. Against his primary mix of four-seam, slider, and sinker, the Athletics have produced a .275 AVG (5th), .360 wOBA (6th), and 47.7% HardHit% (6th), so the matchup lines up favorably for their bats. Pallante will also be backed by a fairly average Cardinals bullpen that has a few shaky middle-relief arms mixed in.

Favorite ATH Bats: Nick Kurtz, Shea Langeliers, Brent Rooker

Bargain Bats: Carlos Cortes, Zack Gelof

Seattle Mariners vs. Tatsuya Imai (RHP), HOU

The Mariners only managed three runs against Peter Lambert and the Astros bullpen last night, but I don’t mind going right back to this matchup against a Houston staff that owns the worst cumulative ERA in baseball this season (5.50). Imai will make just his fourth MLB start tonight. He had ample success in the NPB but the transition to the majors has been anything but smooth so far. This will also be his first MLB appearance in over a month after dealing with fatigue in his pitching arm.

The sample size remains tiny at just 8.2 innings, but the early numbers have been ugly for Imai: 7.27 ERA, 5.08 xFIP, 2.08 WHIP, and a massive 25.0% BB%. There are at least some intriguing traits underneath the surface with a 29.5% kRate and 57.9% GB%, though it’s difficult to expect those numbers to hold if the command remains this poor. The control issues also persisted during his rehab outings, where he posted a brutal 28.6% BB% alongside a .350 BAA, 3.00 WHIP, 10.80 ERA, and 7.35 xFIP. The talent is there long term, but at the moment, it doesn’t look like Imai is fully ready for the MLB level. Reports of culture shock and homesickness have also surfaced, and it’s fair to wonder whether some of that adjustment period has impacted him on the mound. Behind him sits an Astros bullpen that ranks dead last in ERA (5.98), WHIP (1.62), and HR/9 (1.74).

Seattle enters this matchup ranking top-10 against RHPs over the last two weeks in OPS (.735), wOBA (.331), and wRC+ (115). Cal Raleigh’s slump has now reached a dreadful 0-for-36 over his last nine games, but the lineup has still found production elsewhere throughout the order. Overall, this remains a favorable spot for Seattle to generate offense against a struggling Houston pitching staff.

Favorite SEA Bats: Julio Rodriguez, Josh Naylor, Randy Arozarena, Cal Raleigh (again, if you’re feeling bold)

Bargain Bats: Brendan Donovan, Luke Raley

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Chicago White Sox vs. Stephen Kolek (RHP), KC

Eight of the nine hitters in Chicago’s confirmed lineup are currently checking in at 6% pOwn% or lower. The White Sox still don’t hit for average, but that hasn’t stopped them from quietly producing against right-handed pitching lately. Over the last two weeks versus RHPs (288 PAs), Chicago owns just a .234 AVG along with an elevated 26.4% kRate, yet they’ve still managed to rank top-10 in OPS (.753), wOBA (.334), and wRC+ (111) while leading all of baseball in ISO (.194).

Kolek made his season debut against Cleveland last Tuesday and came away with a quality start (6.0 IP, 4 H, 0 BB, 3 ER, 3 K on 83 pitches). He also pitched reasonably well across four rehab outings with a 2.76 ERA and 3.67 xFIP over 16.1 innings, though the .292 BAA and 1.41 WHIP were not particularly encouraging. He also showed some contact issues in his season debut, where he surrendered 10 hard-hit balls equating to a hefty 52.6% HardHit%. In some ways, he was fortunate to allow only three runs in that outing. Another key factor here is the lack of strikeout upside. Kolek owns just a 17.1% career kRate across 165.1 professional innings, which should allow plenty of balls in play against a White Sox lineup that typically struggles with swing-and-miss issues. Kansas City’s bullpen has pitched fairly well recently, but the 2.89 ERA over the last two weeks is paired with a much shakier 4.52 xFIP, which ranks ninth-worst in baseball during that stretch. As a reminder, monitor the weather closely here, but assuming this game looks safe enough to play nine innings, Chicago offers some interesting leverage appeal at low ownership.

Favorite CWS Bats: Munetaka Murakami, Colson Montgomery, Miguel Vargas

Bargain Bats: Sam Antonacci, Chase Meidroth

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD vs. Adrian Houser (RHP), SF

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), CWS

OF Yordan Alvarez, HOU vs. Bryan Woo (RHP), SEA

1B Munetaka Murakami, CWS vs. Stephen Kolek (RHP), KC

1B Nick Kurtz, ATH vs. Andre Pallante (RHP), STL

OF Juan Soto, NYM vs. Jack Flaherty (RHP), DET

OF Byron Buxton, MIN vs. Eury Perez (RHP), MIA

1B Matt Olson, ATL vs. Colin Rea (RHP), CHC

2B Brice Turang, MIL vs. Matt Waldron (RHP – PLR), SD

OF Jordan Walker, STL vs. Jeffrey Springs (LHP), ATH

OF Corbin Carroll, ARI vs. MacKenzie Gore (LHP), TEX

3B Junior Caminero, TB vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), TOR

1B/C Liam Hicks, MIA vs. Bailey Ober (RHP), MIN

SS Kevin McGonigle, DET vs. Freddy Peralta (RHP), NYM

OF Jackson Merrill, SD vs. Brandon Sproat (RHP), MIL

OF Seiya Suzuki, CHC vs. Grant Holmes (RHP), ATL

OF Julio Rodriguez, SEA vs. Tatsuya Imai (RHP), HOU

3B Josh Jung, TEX vs. Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

To qualify as a bargain bat, hitters must be ≤ $4,000 on DraftKings.

C Ivan Herrera, STL vs. Jeffrey Springs (LHP), ATH

OF Carlos Cortes, ATH vs. Andre Pallante (RHP), STL

1B Michael Busch, CHC vs. Grant Holmes (RHP), ATL

1B Rafael Devers, SF vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP), LAD

OF Michael Harris II, ATL vs. Colin Rea (RHP), CHC

1B Josh Naylor, SEA vs. Tatsuya Imai (RHP), HOU

OF Jakob Marsee, MIA vs. Bailey Ober (RHP), MIN

1B/OF Dominic Smith, ATL vs. Colin Rea (RHP), CHC

SS Masyn Winn, STL vs. Jeffrey Springs (LHP), ATH

3B/OF Zack Gelof, ATH vs. Andre Pallante (RHP), STL

OF Sam Antonacci, CWS vs. Stephen Kolek (RHP), KC

OF Michael Conforto, CHC vs. Grant Holmes (RHP), ATL

OF Isaac Collins, KC vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), CWS

1B/OF Ryan Vilade, TB vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), TOR

C Joe Mack, MIA vs. Bailey Ober (RHP), MIN

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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