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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

It’s a fairly light Monday around MLB with just six games on the schedule. DraftKings will include all six games on its main slate, which gets underway at 6:10 ET with Angels/Guardians. FanDuel, meanwhile, is excluding the two games in the 6 o’clock ET window, meaning its four-game slate will begin at 7:07 ET with Rays/Blue Jays. DK players, be mindful of the earlier lock time.

For the purposes of this newsletter, the primary focus will be on the four mutually shared games, though I’ll still list off some “DK Main Slate Only” plays. It’s not the strongest small slate we’ll see all season, but there are still some solid spots to target. Thankfully, weather shouldn’t be much of an issue tonight either with only three outdoor games on the board to begin with. Let’s dive in. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣5/11 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts. Note: I’m not a meteorologist so don’t treat these forecast previews as gospel! It’s always best to run a pre-game weather check for any at-risk games.

Weather Key: 🟡 Chance for delay | 🟠 Elevated delay / PPD risk | 🔴 High PPD risk
🔵 Favorable for pitchers (cold/wind in) | 🟢 Favorable for hitters (warm/wind out)

• LAA at CLE (6:10 ET, 7.5 O/U): DK main slate only. Mid-50s with 10 mph winds IN from center/right. Downgrade to bats.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Nathan Eovaldi (RHP), TEX | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.2k | vs. ARI

Eovaldi has dealt with some loud contact issues this season (46.4% HardHit%, 15th percentile), which has contributed to a few rough outings and a mediocre 4.15 ERA. However, the underlying numbers paint a much better picture, as he owns a far more respectable 3.32 xFIP. He’s also coming off back-to-back dominant starts against the Yankees, holding the No. 4 offense in baseball (based on wRC+) to just one total run across 15.0 innings while piling up 15 strikeouts. The 23.5% kRate on the season may not immediately jump off the page either, but his slate-best 15.0% SwStr% strongly suggests more strikeouts are coming, and we may already be seeing that positive strikeout regression starting to take shape over those last couple of outings. Eovaldi also gets the benefit of pitching at home tonight in Globe Life Field, which has played as the No. 1 pitcher-friendly park in baseball this season.

If Eovaldi was able to stifle the Yankees lineup twice in a row, this Arizona matchup looks very manageable given how poorly the D-Backs have hit righties lately. Against RHPs over the last two weeks (288 PAs), Arizona owns a .184 AVG (29th), .595 OPS (30th), .275 wOBA (28th), and 71 wRC+ (27th). In recent seasons, the D-Backs have typically been known as a difficult lineup to strike out, but even that has shifted recently, as their 25.0% kRate in those splits ranks sixth-highest in baseball during that span. If Eovaldi can continue limiting hard contact while maintaining that elite swinging-strike rate, this sets up as a strong spot for another quality outing tonight.

Michael Soroka (RHP), ARI | DK: $7.3k, FD: $9.5k | at TEX

We’ll stay in this same game and hope for a bit of a pitcher’s duel while turning our attention to Michael Soroka. He’s especially appealing on DraftKings at just $7,300. Soroka had been pitching very well before getting shelled by Milwaukee for eight runs across 3.0 innings a couple of starts ago, but he responded nicely last Wednesday with a quality start against Pittsburgh (6.1 IP, 7 H, 2 BB, 1 ER, 6 K). He allowed plenty of traffic in that outing but did a good job limiting the damage when it mattered. Overall, Soroka’s 4.14 ERA is supported by a stronger 3.46 xFIP, and his 25.8% kRate is the highest mark on this slate if we’re excluding Trevor McDonald (33.3% kRate), who has just one start this season.

There are still some concerning elements within Soroka’s overall profile, but the matchup helps quite a bit. Texas has been the worst home offense in baseball this season, averaging just 2.78 runs/game. Against RHPs at home, the Rangers have produced only a .220 AVG, .631 OPS, .286 wOBA, and 80 wRC+ while striking out at a 21.2% clip. It’s not an offense that typically racks up strikeouts, but the lack of production in their home ballpark has been a consistent issue for Texas all year. The $9,500 FanDuel salary is tough to love, but on a smaller slate, Soroka’s DraftKings tag makes him a very reasonable SP2 option.

Other Pitchers to Consider

George Kirby (RHP), SEA | DK: $8.7k, FD: $9.7k | at HOU

Drew Rasmussen (RHP), TB | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.6k | at TOR

DraftKings Main Slate Only

Ryan Weathers (LHP), NYY | $8,300 | at BAL

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Seattle Mariners vs. Peter Lambert (RHP), HOU

The stack options on this short slate are fairly murky, but we’ll give the Mariners a shot here. Seattle has been productive against RHPs lately, ranking third in baseball with a 122 wRC+ over the last two weeks. Getting Brendan Donovan back from the IL gives them another strong OBP presence at the top of the lineup, and Cal Raleigh feels overdue to break out of this slump. It’s honestly impressive that the Mariners have continued producing offensively with Raleigh sitting in an 0-for-32 (!!!) skid over his last eight games.

Lambert will be making his fifth start of the season. On the surface, the numbers look solid with a 2.42 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and 24.7% kRate across 22.1 innings. However, the underlying metrics point toward some fairly meaningful regression. His 4.09 xFIP paints a much shakier picture, and the pitch modeling data agrees. Lambert’s 92 Stuff+ and 87 Pitching+ ratings are both the lowest marks among today’s starters, and command has also been an issue with a slate-worst 11.8% BB%. He’ll also be backed by an Astros bullpen that owns an MLB-worst 6.05 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, and 1.76 HR/9 this season.

Favorite SEA Bats: Julio Rodriguez, Josh Naylor, Randy Arozarena, Cal Raleigh (if you’re feeling bold)

Bargain Bats: Brendan Donovan, Luke Raley, JP Crawford

San Francisco Giants vs. Roki Sasaki (RHP), LAD

This may honestly be the first time I’ve highlighted a Giants stack all season. San Francisco simply hasn’t given us many reasons to target its offense regularly, though there are at least a few bats beginning to heat up with five Giants hitters carrying a 110+ wRC+ over the last two weeks. More importantly, though, this spot is really about attacking the pitching matchup.

Sasaki has run into trouble in some capacity in nearly every outing this season. The Dodgers even pushed his turn in the rotation back in an effort to help him “get right,” and this will be his first appearance in nine days. That extra rest could certainly help, but there’s no guarantee it suddenly fixes the underlying issues. Across 28.2 innings, Sasaki owns a rough 5.97 ERA, 5.15 xFIP, 1.67 WHIP, .284 BAA, 19.4% kRate, 11.2% BB%, and ugly 2.51 HR/9. He also ranks inside the bottom 25th percentile in xERA (5.74), average exit velocity allowed (90.3 mph), HardHit% (44.4%), and Barrel% (12.2%). Those numbers open the door for even a mediocre offense like San Francisco’s to do some damage.

The obvious concern is the bullpen waiting behind him. Los Angeles has one of the best relief corps in baseball, and most of its key high-leverage arms should be relatively fresh after seeing limited action over the last couple of days. Still, if the Giants can get to Sasaki early and force the Dodgers to play from behind, there’s at least a chance they avoid seeing the premium bullpen arms later in the game. Pricing also helps here, as every projected Giants hitter checks in at $3,900 or below on DraftKings and $3,100 or below on FanDuel, making this one of the more affordable stacks on the slate.

Favorite SF Bats: Rafael Devers, Heliot Ramos, Luis Arraez

Bargain Bats: Jung Hoo Lee, Casey Schmitt, Jesus Rodriguez

DraftKings Main Slate Only

New York Yankees vs. Brandon Young

Favorite NYY Bats: Aaron Judge, Ben Rice, Cody Bellinger

Bargain Bat: Ryan McMahon

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR

Eight of the nine Rays hitters are currently checking in below 8% pOwn%. Gausman is still a quality big league arm, but he hasn’t been in top form lately. Over his last six starts, he owns a lackluster 4.69 xFIP while generating just a 15.2% kRate. He has also struggled with allowed barrels, ranking inside the bottom 20th percentile with seven barreled balls allowed over the last month. For what it’s worth, the current Rays roster has also hit him fairly well historically, posting a .337 AVG across 102 combined plate appearances.

Tampa Bay enters this matchup with an AL-best 26-13 record, which is also the second-best mark in baseball. Much of that success has been driven by dominant pitching rather than an overwhelming offense, but this still shapes up as an interesting leverage opportunity on a smaller slate given the projected ownership. Gausman is certainly capable of bouncing back at any point, though the recent underlying trends haven’t been especially encouraging. Toronto’s bullpen is solid enough overall, but it’s more middle-of-the-pack than truly intimidating, which keeps the door open for Tampa Bay to generate offense throughout the game if the lineup can get to Gausman early.

Favorite TB Bats: Junior Caminero, Yandy Diaz, Jonathan Aranda

Bargain Bats: Chandler Simpson, Jake Fraley

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD vs. Trevor McDonald (RHP), SF

OF Yordan Alvarez, HOU vs. George Kirby (RHP), SEA

OF Corbin Carroll, ARI vs. Nathan Eovaldi (RHP), TEX

SS Corey Seager, TEX vs. Michael Soroka (RHP), ARI

3B Junior Caminero, TB vs. Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR vs. Drew Rasmussen (RHP), TB

OF Julio Rodriguez, SEA vs. Peter Lambert (RHP), HOU

1B Rafael Devers, SF vs. Roki Sasaki (RHP), LAD

DraftKings Main Slate Only

OF Aaron Judge, NYY vs. Brandon Young (RHP), BAL

3B Jose Ramirez, CLE vs. Brent Suter (LHP - PO) + Alek Manoah (RHP – PLR), LAA

OF Mike Trout, LAA vs. Joey Cantillo (RHP), CLE

1B Pete Alonso, BAL vs. Ryan Weathers (LHP), NYY

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

To qualify as a bargain bat, hitters must be ≤ $4,000 on DraftKings.

3B Kazuma Okamoto, TOR vs. Drew Rasmussen (RHP), TB

1B Jonathan Aranda, TB vs. Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR

OF Chandler Simpson, TB vs. Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR

1B Josh Naylor, SEA vs. Peter Lambert (RHP), HOU

2B Luis Arraez, SF vs. Roki Sasaki (RHP), LAD

3B Brendan Donovan, SEA vs. Peter Lambert (RHP), HOU

OF Evan Carter, TEX vs. Michael Soroka (RHP), ARI

OF Luke Raley, SEA vs. Peter Lambert (RHP), HOU

2B Casey Schmitt, SF vs. Roki Sasaki (RHP), LAD

OF Jung Hoo Lee, SF vs. Roki Sasaki (RHP), LAD

OF Heliot Ramos, SF vs. Roki Sasaki (RHP), LAD

SS Hyeseong Kim, LAD vs. Trevor McDonald (RHP), SF

OF Yohendrick Pinango, TOR vs. Drew Rasmussen (RHP), TB

DraftKings Main Slate Only

OF Jo Adell, LAA vs. Joey Cantillo (RHP), CLE

2B Travis Bazzana, CLE vs. Brent Suter (LHP - PO) + Alek Manoah (RHP – PLR), LAA

3B Ryan McMahon, NYY vs. Brandon Young (RHP), BAL

2B Vaughn Grissom, LAA vs. Joey Cantillo (RHP), CLE

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