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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

We’ll kick off the month of May with a loaded 11-game Friday slate! Pitching feels a bit volatile, but there are still plenty of talented arms to work with. The hitting and stacking options look strong as well. Of course, Coors Field is back in play with my Braves in town, but there are also eight other non-Coors teams carrying 4.5+ implied run totals, pointing toward a potentially high-scoring slate. Weather looks clean across the board with no delays or PPDs expected – that’s always a welcomed attribute for any slate. Should be a fun one, so let’s see what we can put together. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣5/1 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts. Note: I’m not a meteorologist so don’t treat these forecast previews as gospel! It’s always best to run a pre-game weather check for any at-risk games.

Weather Key: 🟡 Chance for delay | 🟠 Elevated delay / PPD risk | 🔴 High PPD risk
🔵 Favorable for pitchers (cold/wind in) | 🟢 Favorable for hitters (warm/wind out)

• CLE at ATH (9:40 ET, 9.5 O/U): This is really the only game with conditions worth noting. Temps around 80 degrees at first pitch with ~10 mph winds OUT to left. Solid boost for bats in an already hitter-friendly park.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Bryan Woo (RHP), SEA | DK: $9k, FD: $9.9k | vs. KC

The results have been a bit of a mixed bag for Woo so far, with three strong outings and three underwhelming ones. That said, it doesn’t feel like a coincidence that all of his struggles have come on the road. It’s a small sample, but the home/road splits are pretty clear:

Home: 2 GS, 13.0 IP, 2.77 ERA, 3.06 xFIP, 0.77 WHIP, .214 opp wOBA, 30.6% kRate

Away: 4 GS, 22.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 5.39 xFIP, 1.23 WHIP, .327 opp wOBA, 13.0% kRate

T-Mobile Park continues to play as one of the most pitcher-friendly environments in baseball, and Woo has a track record of performing better at home throughout his career in Seattle, so this isn’t just a one-month trend.

The matchup also lines up well. Kansas City has been productive at home (5.44 runs/gm), but they’ve been abysmal on the road, averaging an MLB-worst 2.60 runs/gm. Even during a recent series at hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park, they managed just nine total runs (3.0 per game). Against RHPs on the road this season, the Royals rank dead last in AVG (.195), OPS (.582), wOBA (.265), and wRC+ (63), while also striking out at a high 25.2% clip. They’ve drawn walks at a decent rate (10.9% BB% vs. RHPs), but Woo has shown strong control, issuing just six walks all season (4.3% BB%, 95th percentile). Kansas City likely won’t remain this ineffective on the road all year, but this sets up as a strong spot to lean into Woo’s home splits against the Royals’ current away struggles.

Shane McClanahan (LHP), TB | DK: $8.2k, FD: $8k | vs. SF

If you’ve followed MLB for a while, you know McClanahan has top-end talent, but injuries wiped out his 2024 and 2025 seasons. When healthy, he has legit Cy Young-caliber stuff, and his 2023 campaign (166.1 IP, 2.54 ERA, 2.60 xFIP, 0.93 WHIP, 30.3% kRate) showed exactly that, finishing sixth in AL Cy Young voting. Through five starts this season (23.0 IP), the results have been encouraging overall: 3.91 ERA, 4.21 xFIP, 24.8% kRate, and a 107 Stuff+ rating. Not quite peak McClanahan numbers, but solid. The main areas to clean up are the command (12.9% BB%, 90 Location+) and the contact quality (12.9% Barrel%, 13th percentile). He’s coming off his best outing of the year against Minnesota (5.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K on 86 pitches), and while Tampa will likely keep him around the ~90 pitch range, that should still be a long enough leash to pay off these mid-range price tags.

The matchup works in his favor as well. The Giants have struggled on the road, particularly against lefties, hitting just .237 with a .613 OPS, .274 wOBA, .097 ISO, 71 wRC+, and a 23.4% kRate in those splits. McClanahan has also historically been stronger at home, and the Rays (-149 ML) are solid favorites. Getting six innings from McClanahan might be a stretch, but five efficient frames with strong strikeout volume and limited damage, with a chance at the win, is well within reach.

Joey Cantillo (LHP), CLE | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.8k | at ATH

There aren’t many trustworthy value arms on this slate, but Cantillo does stand out as a viable SP2 at $7,400 on DraftKings. The overall results have been solid across 30.1 innings: 2.97 ERA, 3.74 xFIP, 1.32 WHIP, and a 27.2% kRate. The sub-3.00 ERA and strikeout rate are the clear standouts here.

This isn’t the softest landing spot, especially with Sutter Health Park playing as the most hitter-friendly environment in baseball so far, and conditions in Sacramento should favor bats. That said, the Athletics haven’t been particularly strong against lefties. They rank bottom-10 in AVG (.228), OPS (.644), wOBA (.293), ISO (.111), and wRC+ (78) in those splits, while carrying a 24.8% kRate. Against Cantillo’s primary pitch mix (four-seam, changeup, curveball, slider), the A’s have posted just a .208 AVG, .276 wOBA, .088 ISO, and a 26.1% kRate. The DFS results haven’t always followed the underlying numbers, but this is a spot where 20+ DKFP is well within reach if he avoids a blowup inning.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Zack Wheeler (RHP), PHI | DK: $9.5k, FD: $9k | at MIA

Will Warren (RHP), NYY | DK: $8.9k, FD: $9.7k | vs. BAL

Emmet Sheehan (RHP), LAD | DK: $8.7k, FD: $8.7k | at STL

Mike Burrows (RHP), HOU | DK: $7k, FD: $7.5k | at BOS

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Atlanta Braves vs. Jose Quintana (LHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Grant Holmes (RHP), ATL

Non-Coors Stacks

New York Yankees vs. Cade Povich (LHP), BAL

The Yankees were awful against lefties to begin the season, but they’ve clearly turned things around. Over the last two weeks vs. LHPs (176 PAs), they rank near the top of the league in every key metric: .275 AVG (3rd), .940 OPS (2nd), .402 wOBA (2nd), .295 ISO (1st), and a 157 wRC+ (2nd). They’ve also been much more productive at Yankee Stadium (No. 6 hitter-friendly park), averaging an MLB-best 5.77 runs per game at home compared to 4.33 on the road.

Povich hasn’t shown much at the big league level. Across just over 200 MLB innings spanning the last three seasons, he owns a 5.02 ERA, 4.40 xFIP, 1.44 WHIP, and a 21.8% kRate. This will be his first MLB appearance since April 12, and while he’s been missing bats down at Triple-A (34.3% kRate), he has surrendered plenty of dingers. He’s allowed five HRs over only 16.0 innings (2.81 HR/9), which is a dangerous profile against a Yankees lineup that’s heating up vs. lefties. Baltimore also used seven relievers across Thursday’s doubleheader action, so bullpen depth could be limited behind him.

Favorite NYY Bats: Aaron Judge, Ben Rice, Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Bargain Bats: Amed Rosario, Jose Caballero

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Matthew Liberatore (LHP), STL

Spotlighting the Yankees and Dodgers isn’t exactly revolutionary, but this is another elite offense in a great spot. While the Yankees have been the top home offense, the Dodgers have been the best road offense, averaging a hefty 6.46 runs per game away compared to 4.61 at home. Even with a lefty-heavy lineup, the splits have worked out against southpaw pitching. Against LHPs on the road this season, they’re hitting .297 with a .954 OPS, .417 wOBA, .257 ISO, and a 165 wRC+ while maintaining a low 17.5% kRate.

Liberatore has shown some ugly reverse splits and has been crushed by left-handed bats, which puts him in a difficult position against all of the stud LHBs that the LAD lineup features. He’s allowed a .387 AVG, .520 wOBA, and a massive .452 ISO to LHBs. Overall, he’s given up eight home runs, with 18.6% of flyballs hit against him leaving the yard. He’s not generating many strikeouts (14.1% kRate) and ranks in the bottom 15th percentile in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, and Whiff%. The Dodgers should be putting plenty of balls in play today, and the Cardinals bullpen behind him hasn’t been sharp (4.91 ERA, 4.51 xFIP, 1.45 WHIP over the last two weeks) while also being taxed after five relievers threw 15+ pitches yesterday. If Los Angeles gets to Liberatore early, he may be forced to wear it for a few innings due to St. Louis’ lack of bullpen flexibility.

Favorite LAD Bats: Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Tucker, Andy Pages

Bargain Bats: Will Smith, Miguel Rojas

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Miami Marlins vs. Zack Wheeler (RHP), PHI

Every hitter in the confirmed Marlins lineup checks in under 5% pOwn%. When healthy, Wheeler is arguably one of the top-five starting pitchers in baseball, but he’s still working his way back after shoulder surgery. He made his season debut six days ago against Atlanta, going five innings on 84 pitches while allowing two runs on three hits and three walks. The command wasn’t quite there, which is expected as he shakes off the rust, and his average fastball velocity was a tick down from his usual velo. He also struggled during his rehab stint, posting a 5.85 ERA across 20.0 innings in the minors. With that said, he will likely continue trending in the right direction with each subsequent start.

This isn’t a high-confidence spot, but Miami has been scrappy at times, especially at home. Against RHPs in that split, they’ve posted a .275 AVG, .768 OPS, .345 wOBA, and a 115 wRC+ with a low 18.7% kRate. They’re also tied for the MLB lead with 36 stolen bases, so they’ll look to be aggressive once they get their speedy guys on base. Wheeler is likely still under some light workload restrictions, so if Miami can extend at-bats and drive up his pitch count early, getting into the Phillies bullpen could be key. Philadelphia used every single one of their relievers in yesterday’s doubleheader, with each throwing at least 17 pitches. They did get an unscheduled off day Wednesday due to a postponement, but bullpen availability could still be stretched here.

Favorite MIA Bats: Liam Hicks, Xavier Edwards, Otto Lopez, Kyle Stowers

Bargain Bat: Jakob Marsee

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge, NYY vs. Cade Povich (LHP), BAL

OF Yordan Alvarez, HOU vs. Jake Bennett (LHP), BOS

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD vs. Matthew Liberatore (LHP), STL

3B Jose Ramirez, CLE vs. JT Ginn (RHP), ATH

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC vs. Bryan Woo (RHP), SEA

OF Mike Trout, LAA vs. Christian Scott (RHP), NYM

1B Munetaka Murakami, CWS vs. German Marquez (RHP), SD

OF Juan Soto, NYM vs. Walbert Urena (RHP), LAA

C Shea Langeliers, ATH vs. Joey Cantillo (LHP), CLE

OF Byron Buxton, MIN vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), TOR

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR vs. Simeon Woods Richardson (RHP), MIN

OF Kyle Schwarber, PHI vs. Eury Perez (RHP), MIA

2B JJ Wetherholt, STL vs. Emmet Sheehan (RHP), LAD

2B Ozzie Albies, ATL vs. Jose Quintana (LHP), COL

1B/3B Yandy Diaz, TB vs. Robbie Ray (LHP), SF

OF Mickey Moniak, COL vs. Grant Holmes (RHP), ATL

3B Manny Machado, SD vs. Noah Schultz (LHP), CWS

C Liam Hicks, MIA vs. Zack Wheeler (RHP), PHI

C Adley Rutschman, BAL vs. Will Warren (RHP), NYY

3B Matt Chapman, SF vs. Shane McClanahan (LHP), TB

OF Julio Rodriguez, SEA vs. Cole Ragans (LHP), KC

1B Willson Contreras, BOS vs. Mike Burrows (RHP), HOU

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

To qualify as a bargain bat, hitters must be ≤ $4,000 on DraftKings.

OF Randy Arozarena, SEA vs. Cole Ragans (LHP), KC

OF Dalton Varsho, TOR vs. Simeon Woods Richardson (RHP), MIN

OF Steven Kwan, CLE vs. JT Ginn (RHP), ATH

C Will Smith, LAD vs. Matthew Liberatore (LHP), STL

2B/SS Amed Rosario, NYY vs. Cade Povich (LHP), BAL

OF/SS Mauricio Dubon, ATL vs. Jose Quintana (LHP), COL

3B Casey Schmitt, SF vs. Shane McClanahan (LHP), TB

2B/3B Daniel Schneemann, CLE vs. JT Ginn (RHP), ATH

SS Jose Caballero, NYY vs. Cade Povich (LHP), BAL

OF Heliot Ramos, SF vs. Shane McClanahan (LHP), TB

OF/SS Jorge Mateo, ATL vs. Jose Quintana (LHP), COL

2B/SS Miguel Rojas, LAD vs. Matthew Liberatore (LHP), STL

OF Eli White, ATL vs. Jose Quintana (LHP), COL

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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