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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Another split-slate Wednesday is here. With getaway day in play for a lot of teams, most of the action takes place in the afternoon, but we still have a four-game evening slate starting at 6:40 ET. It’s a solid small slate with a good mix of pitching options and viable stacks, and no weather concerns to navigate. Let’s see what we can put together. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣4/8 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts. Note: I’m not a meteorologist so don’t treat these forecast previews as gospel! It’s always best to run a pre-game weather check for any at-risk games.

Weather Key: 🟡 Chance for delay | 🟠 Elevated delay / PPD risk | 🔴 High PPD risk
🔵 Favorable for pitchers (cold/wind in) | 🟢 Favorable for hitters (warm/wind out)

• ATH at NYY (7:05 ET, 8.0 O/U): Temps in the 40s with 5–10 mph winds blowing right to left. Decent bump for pitching.

• DET at MIN (7:40 ET, 8.0 O/U): Around 50 degrees with 10 mph winds OUT to left/center. Maybe a mild boost to bats but those cooler temps will still limit carry.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Framber Valdez (LHP), DET | DK: $9k, FD: $10.6k | at MIN

Valdez is clearly the most proven arm on this slate and will draw plenty of attention on a four-gamer. In his first season outside of the Astros’ organization, he’s opened with back-to-back quality starts for the Tigers, allowing just one run (0.75 ERA) over 12 innings while striking out five in each outing (22.5% kRate). The strikeouts should tick up as he gains more starts, but his calling card remains elite ground-ball ability. He’s at a 52.8% GB% early on, which is certainly above-average, but with a 61.7% career groundball rate, that number should climb as the season progresses as well.

The Twins have actually posted the second-lowest ground-ball rate against LHPs so far (31.7%), but the overall production has been underwhelming. They’ve hit just two home runs in 176 plate appearances against lefties, along with a .196 AVG, .582 OPS, .085 ISO, 77 wRC+, and a 27.3% kRate. So, it’s not as if their high flyball rate has resulted in major damage and there is plenty of swing-and-miss in this lineup. Given the expected ownership, fading Valdez isn’t out of the question on a small slate, especially with cheaper arms available that have comparable upside, but this is still a favorable spot for another quality outing.

Eury Perez (RHP), MIA | DK: $7.8k, FD: $9.5k | vs. CIN

Perez opened the season with a solid outing against Colorado before running into trouble against the Yankees, which is a tough draw for any pitcher. Through 11.0 innings, he’s allowed seven runs (5.73 ERA), with control being a concern (14.9% BB%). He’s also carrying a slate-high 57.7% fly-ball rate. That said, there are still positives to highlight. His 15.2% SwStr% is tied for the best mark on the slate, and he returns to his home mound today, where he’s been significantly more effective throughout his career.

Home: 95.2 IP, 2.54 ERA, 3.66 xFIP, 0.97 WHIP, 0.85 HR/9, 30.8% kRate

Away: 102.0 IP, 5.03 ERA, 4.70 xFIP, 1.22 WHIP, 1.85 HR/9, 25.4% kRate

The Reds haven’t found much success against RHPs so far, posting a .202 AVG, .590 OPS, .275 wOBA, .101 ISO, and a 67 wRC+ with a 23.3% kRate. Perez has leaned heavily on his four-seam fastball (nearly 50% usage), and that lines up well here – Cincinnati owns the second-lowest AVG (.153) and wOBA (.242) against four-seamers, along with a 24.2% whiff rate. He also struck out eight across five innings in this matchup last season, while allowing only one run on two hits and no walks. Even with a couple of fresh faces in the Reds’ lineup this year, the same level of upside remains intact in this meeting tonight.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Will Warren (RHP), NYY | DK: $8.2k, FD: $8.2k | vs. ATH

Joe Boyle (RHP), TB | DK: $8k, FD: $8.8k | vs. CHC

Colin Rea (RHP), CHC | DK: $6k, FD: $6.7k | at TB

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

New York Yankees vs. Luis Severino (RHP), ATH

The Yankees are likely to be the most popular stack on this small slate, but that doesn’t mean they should be avoided. There’s always room to get creative with stack construction – just look at what Amed Rosario did for the Yankees yesterday (2 HR, 4 RBI at near-zero ownership). Luis Severino takes the mound for the A’s, and after facing the Blue Jays and Braves in his first two starts, this is no easier draw. Across 8.1 innings, he’s posted a 6.48 ERA, 4.60 xFIP, 1.80 WHIP, and a 26.3% kRate. The strikeouts have been there and the xFIP suggests he hasn’t been quite as bad as the ERA indicates, but he’s also been getting hit hard (60.0% HardHit%) and control has been a major issue, with eight walks already (21.1% BB%).

If those command issues persist, this Yankees lineup is well-equipped to capitalize, as they own the second-highest walk rate (13.8%) against RHPs. Severino leans heavily on a sinker, cutter, and sweeper (75%+ usage), and New York has handled that mix well, posting a .284 AVG, .354 wOBA, and a 49.3% HardHit%. The current Yankees roster has also produced a .417 wOBA across 75 plate appearances against him. Behind Severino, the A’s bullpen has struggled out of the gate with a 5.48 ERA, 5.27 xFIP, 1.83 WHIP, 15.3% kRate, and a 13.4% BB%.

Favorite NYY Bats: Aaron Judge, Ben Rice, Giancarlo Stanton

Bargain Bats: Trent Grisham, Jose Caballero, Austin Wells

Miami Marlins vs. Brady Singer (RHP), CIN

Singer has allowed plenty of traffic (1.56 WHIP) and owns an ugly 6.18 xERA to start the season. More concerning, for him, is the quality of contact he’s giving up – a 98.9 mph average exit velocity and 67.9% HardHit%, both the worst marks among today’s starters by a wide margin.

The Marlins have also come out of the gate hot against RHPs, ranking top-four in AVG, OPS, wOBA, ISO, and wRC+. They’ve matched up well with Singer’s pitch mix, too. While it’s still early, he’s largely operated as a two-pitch arm, leaning heavily on his sinker (55.3% usage) and slider (24.8%). Miami has crushed that combo, posting a .352 AVG, .401 wOBA, and 41.9% HardHit% with just a 12.8% kRate. The Reds’ bullpen has been strong, so most of the damage likely needs to come against Singer. That said, Cincinnati may be without closer Emilio Pagán, who has worked four of the last five days.

Favorite MIA Bats: Xavier Edwards, Liam Hicks, Owen Caissie

Bargain Bats: Otto Lopez, Griffin Conine

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Chicago Cubs vs. Joe Boyle (RHP), TB

I don’t expect the Cubs to come in extremely low-owned, but with most of the projected lineup under 15% pOwn%, there should still be some leverage here on a four-game slate. Joe Boyle is actually a pitcher I like to some extent today. He’s allowed a couple of runs in each of his first two starts, but the overall profile has been solid: 3.18 ERA, 3.19 xFIP, 0.88 WHIP, and a 28.3% kRate. He’s also limited quality contact, allowing just one barreled ball and a 23.3% HardContact%.

The path for Chicago likely comes after Boyle exits. Tampa Bay’s bullpen has been a major weakness, posting an MLB-worst 7.49 ERA across 39.2 innings, along with a 1.64 WHIP, 2.04 HR/9 rate, and a 17.7% kRate. The Cubs have been middle of the pack against RHPs early on, so this isn’t a slam-dunk spot against Boyle himself. But the upside increases significantly once the Rays turn to their relievers, where Chicago could do most of its damage. Being the road team also means they’re guaranteed to bat in the ninth, which always adds a solid boost when we’re banking on a stack to produce in the later innings.

Favorite CHC Bats: Pete Crow-Armstrong, Nico Hoerner, Alex Bregman

Bargain Bats: Matt Shaw, Moises Ballesteros (or Miguel Amaya if he starts)

Note: I’ll reintroduce the “one-off hitters” and “bargain bats” sections starting next Monday.

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