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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

A seven-game Monday slate is always a nice way to kick off the week, and that’s what we’ve got today. There are some quality arms on the mound, a handful of offenses in favorable spots, Coors Field is in play, and no major weather concerns to navigate. We also get a 2025 World Series rematch between the Dodgers and Blue Jays, which adds a little extra intrigue. Not much more you can ask for. Let’s dig in. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣4/6 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts. Note: I’m not a meteorologist so don’t treat these forecast previews as gospel! It’s always best to run a pre-game weather check for any at-risk games.

Weather Key: 🟡 Chance for delay | 🟠 Elevated delay / PPD risk | 🔴 High PPD risk
🔵 Favorable for pitchers (cold/wind in) | 🟢 Favorable for hitters (warm/wind out)

• DET at MIN (7:40 ET, 7.0 O/U): Temps hovering around the freezing mark. Even with ~10 mph winds OUT to right, it’ll be tough for balls to carry. Slight lean pitcher-friendly overall.

• BAL at CWS (7:40 ET, 9.0 O/U): Not quite as cold as Minnesota, but still chilly with temps in the mid-40s and 10-15 mph winds OUT to center. Neutral conditions or perhaps a slight boost to bats.

• HOU at COL (8:40 ET, 10.5 O/U): Around 70 degrees at first pitch with 10 mph winds IN from right. It’s still Coors Field, so bats get the usual bump.

• PHI at SF (9:45 ET, 8.0 O/U): Mid-50s with 10 mph winds OUT to left. Winds at Oracle don’t have much impact unless they push closer to 20+ mph.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Chris Sale (LHP), ATL | DK: $9.7k, FD: $11.1k | at LAA

Sale is the most expensive pitcher on the slate, but it’s tough to argue against paying up for him here. He was reportedly “sick as a dog” in his last start against the A’s and still turned in six innings of one-run ball on 79 pitches. We haven’t seen the elite swing-and-miss yet (10.8% SwStr%, 21.4% kRate), but that upside should return sooner rather than later. Through 12 innings, he’s allowed just one run (0.75 ERA) with a dominant 0.58 WHIP while giving up only one barreled ball. Atlanta also enters as the heaviest favorite on the slate (-175 ML).

The Angels have done some damage against right-handed pitching but haven’t found much success versus lefties. It’s a small sample (58 PAs), but they’ve posted a .188 AVG, .476 OPS, .021 ISO, and a 41 wRC+ with a massive 37.9% kRate. Mike Trout is also questionable to play tonight after taking a fastball off his left hand on Sunday. In 74 plate appearances against this Angels roster, Sale has generated a 32.4% kRate. He’s already delivered two quality starts, but this sets up as a spot where the strikeouts could really start to pile up.

Andrew Painter (RHP), PHI | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.2k | at SF

Painter made his MLB debut last Tuesday and gave us a glimpse of why he’s ranked as the Phillies’ top pitching prospect and the No. 25 prospect in all of baseball (via MLB.com). It was a favorable matchup against the Nationals, but the performance still stood out. Painter worked 5.1 innings of one-run ball on 84 pitches while striking out eight (38.1% kRate) and posting a 0.57 xERA. His minor league numbers last season weren’t overly impressive (118.0 IP, 5.26 ERA, 4.20 xFIP, 1.49 WHIP, 23.7% kRate), and this will be his first road start at the MLB level. That said, this is another spot where he can find success.

The Giants have struggled mightily at home to begin the season, averaging just 1.86 runs per game across seven contests at Oracle Park. Against right-handed pitching at home (153 PAs), they’ve posted a .148 AVG, .385 OPS, .185 wOBA, and a 20 wRC+ with a 24.2% kRate. The strikeout rate isn’t extreme, but the overall offensive production has been nonexistent. There’s always some risk with a young arm making just his second MLB start, but the matchup is about as favorable as it gets.

Casey Mize (RHP), DET | DK: $7.7k, FD: $9.6k | at MIN

Mize sets up better on DraftKings where a $7,700 tag feels just a bit underpriced. He had a strong season debut against the D-Backs (6.0 IP, 4 H, 2 BB, 1 ER, 9 K, 93 pitches) and gets a solid matchup in his second start of the campaign. Temps are also expected to be around freezing in Minneapolis this evening so, even with some winds blowing out, it’ll be tough for balls to carry.

The Twins have been exactly league average against RHPs so far based on their 100 wRC+, and the strikeout upside stands out with a 27.3% team kRate (5th-highest). Six projected hitters carry at least a 25.0% kRate against righties, including three (Wallner, Jeffers, Clemens) north of 41.0%. Mize has also handled this lineup well historically, holding the current roster to a .196 AVG across 99 plate appearances. Replicating nine strikeouts may be asking a bit much, but he’s in a good spot for 6+ Ks with a path to another quality start, which is more than enough at this price point.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Jacob deGrom (RHP), TEX | DK: $9k, FD: $10.4k | vs. SEA

Joe Ryan (RHP), MIN | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9.1k | vs. DET

Jose Soriano (RHP), LAA | DK: $7.2k, FD: $9.8k | vs. ATL (DraftKings Preferred)

Cody Bolton (RHP), HOU | DK: $4k, FD: $5.5k | at COL (DraftKings SP2 Punt Play)

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Houston Astros vs. Ryan Feltner (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Cody Bolton (RHP), HOU

Non-Coors Stacks

Baltimore Orioles vs. Grant Taylor (Opener) / Erick Fedde (RHPs), CWS

The White Sox are expected to use Grant Taylor as an opener, with Erick Fedde a candidate to follow as the primary long reliever. Taylor brings plenty of strikeout upside (34.5% kRate over 40.2 MLB innings) and could eventually transition into a traditional starting role, but the Orioles will likely only see him for the first inning or so. There’s no guarantee Fedde is the next arm in, but if he is, it sets up as a favorable matchup for Baltimore. Fedde owns a 4.94 career ERA, doesn’t miss many bats (17.5% kRate), and tends to allow hard contact (40.9% HardHit%). He’d likely cover four or five innings before handing things over to a struggling White Sox bullpen.

Chicago’s relief unit has been one of the weakest in the league, posting a 6.31 ERA, 5.23 xFIP, 1.66 WHIP, and a 17.8% kRate across 45.2 innings. Baltimore hasn’t fully gotten rolling yet, but they still rank in the top half of MLB against RHPs in AVG, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+. They also lead all non-Coors teams on this slate with a 4.8 implied total. It’ll be chilly on the South Side tonight, but 10–15 mph winds blowing out to center/right could give a slight boost to well-struck fly balls.

Favorite BAL Bats: Taylor Ward, Gunnar Henderson, Pete Alonso

Bargain Bats: Samuel Basallo, Dylan Beavers

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Max Scherzer (RHP), TOR

A lot of eyes will be on this 2025 World Series rematch. The Dodgers’ offense was a bit sluggish out of the gate, but they’ve started to find a rhythm and just put up 31 runs across their three-game weekend series against the Nationals. Against RHPs (241 PAs), they now rank top-two in AVG (.302), OPS (.877), wOBA (.387), ISO (.209), and wRC+ (149).

They’ll face 41-year-old Max Scherzer this evening. He still has some gas left in the tank, but it may be closer to fumes at this point. He logged a quality start in his season debut, though that came against a weak Rockies lineup. Scherzer recorded just four strikeouts with a 9.8% SwStr% while allowing a heavy amount of fly balls (58.8% FB%). If that trend continues, this Dodgers lineup has the power to do damage. He’ll also be backed by a Blue Jays bullpen that hasn’t stood out early on, posting a 4.67 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, and a .274 opponent AVG.

Favorite LAD Bats: Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith

Bargain Bats: Andy Pages, Max Muncy

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Chicago White Sox vs. Brandon Young (RHP), BAL

Every hitter in the projected White Sox lineup comes in at ≤ 11% pOwn%. Outside of Munetaka Murakami, this offense hasn’t done much against right-handed pitching, posting a .280 wOBA, 78 wRC+, and a 28.9% kRate. Still, they draw an interesting matchup against Brandon Young. In his debut season last year, Young made a dozen starts (57.2 IP) and struggled overall, finishing with a 6.24 ERA, 4.52 xFIP, 1.54 WHIP, 18.4% kRate, and a 1.87 HR/9 rate.

Baltimore’s bullpen has been fairly average to start the year, so there’s a path here if Young doesn’t go deep into the game. Outside of Murakami, this lineup is extremely affordable, making it easy to build around a two- or three-man mini stack for leverage on this slate.

Favorite CWS Bats: Munetaka Murakami, Colson Montgomery, Miguel Vargas

Bargain Bat: Luisangel Acuña

Note: I’ll reintroduce the “one-off hitters” and “bargain bats” sections starting next Monday.

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