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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Friday brings a full day of baseball, with first pitches spanning from 1:00 ET to 10:00 ET. Most of the action takes place in the afternoon, but this newsletter will focus on the late slate. Four games make up the core of the evening slate, all starting at 9:38 ET or later.

FanDuel does include the MIL/KC game (7:45 ET) on its evening slate, while DraftKings sticks with the four late games. There is some postponement risk in Kansas City, so even though they could end up playing nine innings, we’ll focus on pitchers and stacks from the four late contests. Just keep in mind that FanDuel contests will still lock at 7:45 ET, unless there is an early PPD announcement and they adjust.

Alright, let’s dive in. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣4/3 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts. Note: I’m not a meteorologist so don’t treat these forecast previews as gospel! It’s always best to run a pre-game weather check for any at-risk games.

Weather Key: 🟡 Chance for delay | 🟠 Elevated delay / PPD risk | 🔴 High PPD risk
🔵 Favorable for pitchers (cold/wind in) | 🟢 Favorable for hitters (warm/wind out)

• MIL at KC (7:45 ET, 9.0 O/U): FD slate only. A slow-moving line of storms is expected to move through the area this evening and could cause issues. As of now, the range of outcomes spans from starting on time with a mid-game delay, to a very late start, or even an outright PPD. Approach with caution and be sure to check the radar closer to first pitch as conditions could shift.

• SEA at LAA (9:38 ET, 8.0 O/U): Around 80 degrees with light winds IN from left.

• ATL at ARI (9:45 ET, 9.0 O/U): The Chase Field roof will be open. It’ll be around 85 degrees in Phoenix at first pitch. Slight upgrade to bats.

• NYM at SF (10:15 ET, 7.5 O/U): Temps in the low-60s with little wind impact. Quality conditions and ballpark for pitchers.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Bryan Woo (RHP), SEA | DK: $10k, FD: $10.4k | at LAA

Pitching is pretty thin on this late slate, so Woo sets up as the clear top option. He looked sharp in his season debut against Cleveland, finishing with a 1.88 xERA, 0.83 WHIP, and a 15.7% SwStr% while striking out nine (39.1% kRate). He’s also had success against this Angels lineup, posting a 28.6% kRate across 84 plate appearances, including a 13-strikeout outing against them last season. This LAA lineup is largely unchanged, so the matchup should remain favorable.

The Angels have struggled against lefties but have done solid damage versus right-handed pitching so far. Despite a subpar .222 AVG, they rank top-10 in OPS (.759), wOBA (.343), and wRC+ (125) across 225 plate appearances vs. RHPs. That said, the strikeout rate is still elevated at 26.7%, and the low batting average suggests some regression could be coming. Seattle enters as the largest favorite on the slate (-163 ML), and while Woo will carry heavy ownership, it’s tough to justify a fade in this spot.

Grant Holmes (RHP), ATL | DK: $6.5k, FD: $8.9k | at ARI

Holmes profiles best as an SP2 on DraftKings, though you could take a contrarian shot on FanDuel if you’re looking to differentiate. He showed some pretty drastic home/road splits last season (50.4% less FPPG on the road), so that’s something to keep in mind unless you’re stacking Arizona. His final line from his first start (5.0 IP, 5 H, 2 BB, 3 ER, 4 K on 76 pitches) doesn’t jump off the page, but a 2.14 xERA suggests he pitched better than the surface stats indicate. Holmes has shown solid strikeout ability, posting a 24.7% kRate across 188.1 career innings, and he carried that into the spring with a 29.9% kRate over 17.2 innings.

Arizona has been a fairly average offense against right-handed pitching so far, ranking 16th in OPS (.722), wOBA (.319), and wRC+ (103) with a 24.0% kRate. There’s also some elevated swing-and-miss potential in the bottom half of this lineup, with four hitters (Alek Thomas, Nolan Arenado, Carlos Santana, and Jordan Lawler) posting kRates of at least 28.6% against RHPs early on. It’s not a risk-free spot, but Holmes has a path to returning value here, especially at his $6.5k salary on DraftKings.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Nolan McLean (RHP), NYM | DK: $9k, FD: $10.2k | at SF

Reid Detmers (LHP), LAA | DK: $7.5k, FD: $7.5k | vs. SEA

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Houston Astros vs. Jeffrey Springs (LHP), ATH

Springs had a forgettable spring training (6.28 ERA, 6.31 xFIP, 1.53 WHIP, and 13.8% BB% over 14.1 IP) and some of those struggles bled over to his first official start of the season. While he only gave up two runs over 5.1 IP against a strong Blue Jays offense, he also only generated a 4.8% SwStr% and allowed plenty of traffic on the bases. He will be backed by an A’s bullpen that owns a 4.99 xFIP (7th worst) and also hasn’t missed many bats with a 15.3% kRate (3rd lowest).

That puts the Astros in a quality spot today as they look to stay hot against lefties. It’s only a 120 PA sample, but Houston has been excellent against LHPs: .315 AVG (3rd), .943 OPS (2nd), .408 wOBA (2nd), .250 ISO (1st), and 175 wRC+ (1st). They also get a big park upgrade in this spot. Sutter Health Park, the A’s temporary home for the second year in a row, rated as the No. 2 most hitter-friendly ballpark in 2025, trailing only Coors Field.

Favorite HOU Bats: Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa

Bargain Bats: Isaac Paredes, Cam Smith

Atlanta Braves vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), ARI

Rodriguez is capable of shutting down good offenses – as he showed in his season debut against the Dodgers with five scoreless innings – but he’s also prone to blowups, which helps explain the 5+ ERA in each of the last two seasons. He’s shown some notable struggles at home as well (47.1% less FPPG). Since 2024, across 19 home starts, Rodriguez has posted a 5.26 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, .357 opponent wOBA, and a 1.50 HR/9 with just an 18.2% kRate. He’ll also be backed by a D-Backs bullpen that has struggled early, logging an 8.39 ERA, 5.32 xFIP, 1.78 WHIP, and a 16.9% kRate.

Atlanta erupted for 17 runs on 16 hits in the series opener last night. That’s a tough act to follow, but they’ve been productive against lefties early on, ranking top-five in OPS (.839), wOBA (.375), ISO (.190), and wRC+ (140) while keeping the strikeout rate low at 16.2% (4th-lowest). Chase Field played as the 10th most hitter-friendly park in 2025, and when the roof is open, the warm Phoenix air tends to give hitters a slight boost.

Favorite ATL Bats: Drake Baldwin, Ronald Acuña Jr., Austin Riley

Bargain Bats: Mauricio Dubon, Michael Harris II

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Los Angeles Angels vs. Bryan Woo (RHP), SEA

Every hitter in the projected Angels lineup comes in under 5% pOwn%. Bryan Woo is very likely to be the highest-owned pitcher on this slate, so naturally, the Angels won’t attract much attention. It’s clearly a tough matchup against Woo and a stout Mariners bullpen, but if you’re looking for hard-to-find leverage on a small slate, this is one way to get it.

As noted in Woo’s spotlight above, the Angels rank top-10 against RHPs in OPS (.759), wOBA (.343), and wRC+ (125). While the batting average has been underwhelming (.222), they’ve still managed to generate plenty of extra-base hits. They’ve also shown some aggressiveness on the bases and have four stolen bags against RHPs so far, which is tied for the fifth-most in MLB. This lineup could easily get shut down tonight, but on a four-game slate, it doesn’t take much for a low-owned stack to pay off, and the Angels fit that mold.

Favorite LAA Bats: Mike Trout, Nolan Schanuel, Zach Neto

Bargain Bat: Oswald Peraza

Note: Once we get a couple of weeks into the season, I’ll reintroduce the “one-off hitters” and “bargain bats” sections.

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