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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Wednesdays are always great for baseball fans, with a full day of games stretching from the afternoon into the night. Today is no exception, with a busy early window followed by a six- or seven-game main slate depending on your site. FanDuel includes the late Royals/Athletics game, while DraftKings leaves it off. We have lost one game already, as HOU at BAL has been postponed due to weather. There are a few other spots where rain could come into play, but the current hope is that no further postponements will hit. Let’s get into it. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣4/29 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts. Note: I’m not a meteorologist so don’t treat these forecast previews as gospel! It’s always best to run a pre-game weather check for any at-risk games.

Weather Key: 🟡 Chance for delay | 🟠 Elevated delay / PPD risk | 🔴 High PPD risk
🔵 Favorable for pitchers (cold/wind in) | 🟢 Favorable for hitters (warm/wind out)

• HOU at BAL (6:35 ET, 9.0 O/U): POSTPONED

• STL at PIT (6:40 ET, 8.5 O/U): Storms may still be clearing around first pitch, so a late start is possible. Once underway, conditions should be clear the rest of the way. Temps in the mid-50s with ~10 mph winds OUT to center.

• COL at CIN (6:40 ET, 9.5 O/U): Not especially warm, but 10–15 mph winds OUT to center should give bats a boost.

• SF at PHI (6:40 ET, 7.0 O/U): Likely the main game to monitor. Rain will be around, but it doesn’t look heavy enough to force a delay or PPD. Good chance they play through it, but a pre-game check is recommended.

• WAS at NYM (7:10 ET, 7.5 O/U): More wet weather expected, mainly later in the game. Similar setup to Philly – light enough to likely play through, but worth monitoring.

• DET at ATL (7:15 ET, 8.5 O/U): Low-end chance of a pop-up storm hitting the ballpark. Not a major concern.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Cristopher Sanchez (LHP), PHI | DK: $9.7k, FD: $9.9k | vs. SF

Reminder: Monitor weather here.

Sanchez got tagged for six runs on 12 hits in his last start against a hot Cubs lineup, but he’s been solid overall. Through six starts, he owns a 2.94 ERA, 2.57 xFIP, 28.1% kRate, 14.4% SwStr%, and a 58.0% ground-ball rate. The WHIP sits high at 1.60, but that’s not driven by walks (just a 6.5% BB%). Instead, it’s largely BABIP-related, with opponents running an unsustainably high .423 mark against him. That should normalize, and his underlying profile supports less traffic on the bases moving forward. Sanchez has also historically been much better at home, averaging +55.2% more FPPG.

The matchup is favorable. While he allowed 11 hits and a couple of runs to the Giants a few weeks back, that outing lines up with the BABIP issues noted above and came on the road, where he’s been more volatile. San Francisco hasn’t been particularly strong against lefties, and over the last two weeks vs. LHPs, they’ve posted a .236 AVG, .646 OPS, 82 wRC+, and a 23.5% kRate. If the weather holds, Sanchez projects as one of the stronger options on the slate.

Logan Webb (RHP), SF | DK: $8.7k, FD: $9.3k | at PHI

Reminder: Monitor weather here.

We’ll stay in this same game and bank on a pitcher’s duel between Webb and Sanchez. Webb’s season hasn’t been the smoothest so far, but we know the upside is there when he’s right. The 4.86 ERA isn’t pretty, though it’s backed by a much more respectable 3.54 xFIP. He’s continued to do what he does best – generate groundballs (57.5% GB%) and limit flyballs (21.2% FB%). The strikeouts haven’t shown up yet (19.9% kRate, 8.5% SwStr%), but even a modest bump toward his 22.7% career mark would go a long way here.

The matchup helps. Philadelphia has been slumping against righties, ranking 25th or worse over the last two weeks in AVG (.231), OPS (.637), wOBA (.285), and wRC+ (77). They’re also hitting just .225 against Webb’s primary pitch mix (sinker, changeup, sweeper). If the weather holds, this sets up nicely as a low-scoring game between two quality starters, and that aligns with the slate-low 7.0-run total attached to this matchup.

Andre Pallante (RHP), STL | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.7k | at PIT

Pitching isn’t particularly deep on this slate, and all of the cheaper arms come with some risk. That said, Pallante stands out as one of the better value options, especially as an SP2 on DraftKings. He’s delivered solid outings in three of his five starts, and while the overall numbers don’t jump off the page (4.26 ERA, 4.91 xFIP, 1.42 WHIP, 17.5% kRate), there’s a path to five or six effective innings here. He does a good job at generating groundballs (51.3% GB%), and the strikeouts have ticked up recently with 13 Ks over his last two starts (10.1 IP).

The matchup is doing a lot of the heavy lifting. Over the last two weeks vs. RHPs, the Pirates rank bottom-10 in AVG (.236), OPS (.665), wOBA (.299), ISO (.115), and wRC+ (84) while carrying a 24.1% kRate (6th-highest). They’ve also posted the fourth-highest ground-ball rate (47.0%) in that span, which plays into Pallante’s strength. Against his primary pitch mix (four-seam, slider, sinker, knuckle curve), Pittsburgh owns the fourth-highest Whiff% (25.8%), so there’s a chance the recent strikeout bump sticks as well. It’s not a high-confidence play, but there’s a reasonable path to around 20 DKFP / 35 FDFP here. As a reminder, there is some delay risk in this game, though a brief late start looks like the worst-case scenario.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Tarik Skubal (LHP), DET | DK: $10.7k, FD: $10.8k | at ATL

JR Ritchie (RHP), ATL | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.1k | vs. DET

Cade Cavalli (RHP), WAS | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.8k | at NYM (Monitor weather)

David Peterson (LHP), NYM | DK: $6.2k, FD: $6.8k | vs. WAS (Monitor weather)

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Tomoyuki Sugano (RHP), COL

Sugano has posted a respectable 3.42 ERA and 1.12 WHIP through five starts, but this looks like a clear regression spot. His 6.03 xERA tells a very different story, and the underlying profile is shaky across the board. He owns a 78 Stuff+ rating, the lowest among MLB starters (min. 20 IP), and ranks in the bottom 20th percentile in xBA (.284), Chase% (25.3%), and HardHit% (46.4%). He’s also been tagged for a 15.5% Barrel% (bottom 6th percentile). Add in a mediocre Rockies bullpen behind him, and this is a tough environment to try to hold things together. Great American Ball Park has played as the No. 2 hitter-friendly venue, and 10–15 mph winds OUT to center will only tack on extra carry on well-struck flyballs.

Cincinnati has also been rolling at home against righties. Over the last two weeks (164 PAs), they’ve posted a .978 OPS, .419 wOBA, .352 ISO, and a 159 wRC+. Massive numbers. The Reds carry the highest implied total on the slate at 5.2 runs and are well positioned to hand Sugano some of the regression his underlying metrics are asking for.

Favorite CIN Bats: Elly De La Cruz, Sal Stewart, Nathaniel Lowe

Bargain Bats: JJ Bleday, TJ Friedl, Matt McLain

Arizona Diamondbacks (LHBs Preferred) vs. Brandon Sproat (RHP), MIL

Sproat has plenty of talent, but it hasn’t translated at the big league level yet. Aside from a strong outing against Toronto a couple of weeks ago, it’s been a rough start to the season. Across 22.1 innings, he owns a 6.45 ERA, 5.22 xERA, 1.57 WHIP, 13.7% BB%, 2.01 HR/9, and a 45.7% HardHit%. Lefties have done the most damage, posting a .316 AVG, .449 wOBA, .316 ISO, 2.00 WHIP, and 2.45 HR/9 against him. The Brewers’ bullpen has been solid overall, but if Arizona gets to Sproat early, they likely won’t see Milwaukee’s top relievers.

Arizona hasn’t been great against righties on the season, but the recent form is trending up despite yesterday’s two-run performance. Over the last two weeks, the D-Backs rank top-six in AVG (.280), OPS (.811), wOBA (.357), and wRC+ (126) while carrying an MLB-low 17.1% kRate. They’re also expected to roll out six lefty or switch hitters, which lines up well against Sproat’s biggest weakness.

Favorite ARI Bats: Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, Geraldo Perdomo

Bargain Bats: Ildemaro Vargas, Alek Thomas, Nolan Arenado

FanDuel Main Slate Only Stack

Kansas City Royals vs. Luis Severino (RHP), ATH

Favorite KC Bats: Bobby Witt Jr., Carter Jensen, Salvador Perez

Bargain Bats: Jac Caglianone, Michael Massey

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Atlanta Braves vs. Tarik Skubal (LHP), DET

Every hitter in the projected Braves lineup is coming in at ≤5% pOwn%. Atlanta has been one of the best offenses in baseball, but the matchup with Skubal will keep ownership suppressed. That said, he hasn’t been completely untouchable this season, giving up four runs in outings against Milwaukee and Minnesota. Atlanta has been much better against lefties than both of those teams, so there’s at least a path to some early damage before Detroit turns to a bullpen that has struggled lately (5.73 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, .300 opponent AVG over the last two weeks).

The Braves have been excellent against LHPs all season (top-four in AVG, OPS, wOBA, wRC+) while carrying an MLB-low 17.2% kRate. They’ve been even better at home in this split, posting a .304 AVG, .866 OPS, .379 wOBA, .196 ISO, 140 wRC+, and a 14.5% kRate. If they can limit strikeouts and force contact, there’s a path to production here. This isn’t a spot to full stack, but a two- or three-man mini stack makes sense for leverage. It’s a small sample, but in 55 PAs vs. Skubal, the current Braves roster has produced a .286 AVG and .370 wOBA with just a 21.8% kRate (very low by Skubal’s standards).

Favorite ATL Bats: Ozzie Albies, Ronald Acuña Jr., Matt Olson

Bargain Bats: Michael Harris II, Eli White

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Oneil Cruz, PIT vs. Andre Pallante (RHP), STL

SS Elly De La Cruz, CIN vs. Tomoyuki Sugano (RHP), COL

OF James Wood, WAS vs. David Peterson (LHP), NYM

OF Corbin Carroll, ARI vs. Brandon Sproat (RHP), MIL

OF Juan Soto, NYM vs. Cade Cavalli (RHP), WAS

2B JJ Wetherholt, STL vs. Bubba Chandler (RHP), PIT

3B/SS Kevin McGonigle, DET vs. JR Ritchie (RHP), ATL

C Hunter Goodman, COL vs. Brandon Williamson (LHP), CIN

2B Ozzie Albies, ATL vs. Tarik Skubal (LHP), DET

3B Matt Chapman, SF vs. Cristopher Sanchez (LHP), PHI

1B Bryce Harper, PHI vs. Logan Webb (RHP), SF

C William Contreras, MIL vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), ARI

FanDuel Main Slate Only

1B Nick Kurtz, ATH vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), KC

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC vs. Luis Severino (RHP), ATH

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

To qualify as a bargain bat, hitters must be ≤ $4,000 on DraftKings.

OF Kerry Carpenter, DET vs. JR Ritchie (RHP), ATL

1B/2B Ildemaro Vargas, ARI vs. Brandon Sproat (RHP), MIL

OF JJ Bleday, CIN vs. Tomoyuki Sugano (RHP), COL

OF TJ Friedl, CIN vs. Tomoyuki Sugano (RHP), COL

C Gary Sanchez, MIL vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), ARI

3B Nolan Arenado, ARI vs. Brandon Sproat (RHP), MIL

1B Spencer Torkelson, DET vs. JR Ritchie (RHP), ATL

OF Michael Harris II, ATL vs. Tarik Skubal (LHP), DET

2B Matt McLain, CIN vs. Tomoyuki Sugano (RHP), COL

OF Jordan Beck, COL vs. Brandon Williamson (LHP), CIN

OF Alek Thomas, ARI vs. Brandon Sproat (RHP), MIL

OF Brandon Lockridge, MIL vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), ARI

1B Nathaniel Lowe, CIN vs. Tomoyuki Sugano (RHP), COL

FanDuel Main Slate Only

SS Jacob Wilson, ATH vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), KC

C/1B Salvador Perez, KC vs. Luis Severino (RHP), ATH

1B/OF Jac Caglianone, KC vs. Luis Severino (RHP), ATH

3B/OF Michael Massey, KC vs. Luis Severino (RHP), ATH

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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