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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

A healthy 10-game main slate hits the board on Tuesday. This one brings a nice mix of quality pitching and plenty of viable offenses to stack, with minimal weather concerns overall. Also, shoutout to the White Sox for grinding through a three-hour delayed start last night just to get a baseball game in. Respect. There’s a lot to break down today, so let’s get right to it. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣4/28 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts. Note: I’m not a meteorologist so don’t treat these forecast previews as gospel! It’s always best to run a pre-game weather check for any at-risk games.

Weather Key: 🟡 Chance for delay | 🟠 Elevated delay / PPD risk | 🔴 High PPD risk
🔵 Favorable for pitchers (cold/wind in) | 🟢 Favorable for hitters (warm/wind out)

• WAS at NYM (7:10 ET, 8.0 O/U): Just enough rain in the forecast to potentially cause a delayed start, but there’s also a good chance they begin on time. Once it gets going, conditions should hold without further issues.

• DET at ATL (7:15 ET, 8.5 O/U): The main spot to monitor. Should start dry, but rain chances increase in the mid-to-late innings. Some light rain may be playable, but anything heavier could lead to a lengthy delay or a shortened game. Worth a pre-lock check.

• SEA at MIN (7:40 ET, 7.5 O/U): Around 50 degrees with ~10 mph winds OUT to center. Overall, fairly neutral conditions.

• KC at ATH (9:40 ET, 9.5 O/U): Low-70s with light winds OUT to left/center. Nothing extreme, but still favorable hitting conditions in an already hitter-friendly park. This is the only game on the slate with an over/under above 8.5 runs.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Cam Schlittler (RHP), NYY | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10.8k | at TEX

Schlittler has been extremely steady this season, and it’s encouraging to see his pitch count climb into the 90s in each of his last two starts after being capped at 85 or fewer in his first four outings. Across 35.2 innings, he’s posted a 1.77 ERA, 2.29 xFIP, 0.73 WHIP, 30.8% kRate, 15.0% SwStr%, and an elite 3.0% BB% while inducing nearly a 50% ground-ball rate. He also sits in the 99th percentile with a massive 41.1% Chase Rate. The combination of stuff and command has been excellent, with Schlittler ranking 3rd among MLB starters with a 121 Pitching+ rating.

The matchup continues to check out. Texas struggled at home again last night, managing just two runs (one unearned), and still profiles as the worst home offense in baseball at just 2.69 runs per game. Against RHPs at home, they’re hitting .223 with a .630 OPS and a 77 wRC+. This sets up as a potential pitcher’s duel with Jacob deGrom on the other side, but if Schlittler maintains his current workload, the strikeout upside and efficiency should still give him a strong ceiling.

Jose Soriano (RHP), LAA | DK: $8.6k, FD: $11.3k | at CWS

Not entirely sure what DraftKings is doing keeping Soriano under $9k. If the season ended today, he’d likely be the AL Cy Young frontrunner. Across 37.2 innings, he’s allowed just one run (0.24 ERA), coming on a solo shot by Drake Baldwin back on April 6. Some regression is inevitable, but not to a concerning degree. His 2.71 xERA and 2.83 xFIP both support the elite run prevention, and he’s paired that with a 0.82 WHIP, 30.7% kRate, and an excellent 57.8% ground-ball rate. I don’t usually include Baseball Savant visuals, but the percentile profile below speaks for itself. If you look toward the right of that image, you’ll also notice that he’s bringing well-above-average velocity across all five of his pitches.

The matchup isn’t completely free of risk. The White Sox have been swinging hot bats, ranking fifth in MLB with a 121 wRC+ vs. RHPs over the last two weeks. That said, there’s still plenty of swing-and-miss in this lineup. Six projected hitters carry at least a 22.4% kRate vs. righties this season, including four north of 28%. If Soriano can limit damage against the top-end bats like Murakami, Montgomery, and Vargas, the rest of the lineup sets up favorably. The $11,300 tag on FanDuel is a steep price to pay when there are other great starters to choose from below him, but it’s tough to overlook Soriano at $8,600 on DraftKings, especially in cash lineup builds.

Davis Martin (RHP), CWS | DK: $7.3k, FD: $9.6k | vs. LAA

Martin is another pitcher from this same game who probably deserves a bit more respect than what the $7,300 DraftKings price tag is giving him. He’s put up a 2.01 ERA across his five starts (31.1 IP) and has cleared six innings or more in each of his last four outings. He’s been a bit fortunate to keep the ERA that low, but a 3.60 xFIP still supports a strong underlying profile. His ability to limit walks (5.9% BB%) has kept the WHIP in check (1.02), and while the 22.0% kRate isn’t eye-popping, it’s still solid relative to the “cheap SP” tier on this slate. There are some concerning Statcast indicators, particularly a 51.2% HardHit%, but he’s consistently avoided major damage and blowup innings.

The Angels bring some power at the top of the lineup, especially with a healthy Mike Trout looking like himself again, but they also strike out a ton, leading MLB with a 25.8% kRate vs. RHPs this season. Against Martin’s six-pitch mix, they also own the highest Whiff% (28.4%) and the seventh-lowest HardHit% (39.3%), which helps offset some of the concerns about the hard contact that Martin has given up. This game carries a 7.5 total and is close to a pick ’em, with the White Sox slight +109 underdogs, so the expectation is for a relatively low-scoring, pitching-driven matchup. On FanDuel, it probably makes sense to find the extra salary to pay up for arms like Soriano, Schlittler, Ohtani, or deGrom, but at $7,300 on DraftKings, Martin stands out as a viable SP2 option with some upside.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Shohei Ohtani (RHP), LAD | DK: $10.5k, FD: $10.5k | vs. MIA

Jacob deGrom (RHP), TEX | DK: $9k, FD: $10.2k | vs. NYY

Casey Mize (RHP), DET | DK: $7.7k, FD: $9.1k | at ATL (Monitor weather)

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

Merrill Kelly should eventually settle in, but until that happens, he’s an arm worth targeting. It’s only a two-start sample (9.2 IP), but the results have been rough: 9.31 ERA, 13.52 xERA, 2.28 WHIP, 16.0% kRate, 14.0% BB%, and a massive 25.7% Barrel%. He’s already allowed four home runs, getting hit hard by both sides – a .521 wOBA and .444 ISO to LHBs, and a .428 wOBA and .286 ISO to RHBs. He’s better than this, but there’s no reason not to attack him until he proves otherwise.

The Brewers have cooled off after a strong start, posting just a .211 AVG, .591 OPS, and a 71 wRC+ vs. RHPs over the last two weeks. That said, they still bring plenty of stolen base upside and lead MLB with 36 steals. If they can take advantage of the traffic Kelly has been allowing, this is a stack that can put up some big fantasy numbers without necessarily needing multiple home runs. Though, I will be rolling with Brice Turang as my home run call today!

Favorite MIL Bats: Brice Turang, Jake Bauers, William Contreras

Bargain Bats: Brandon Lockridge, Gary Sanchez

Kansas City Royals vs. Aaron Civale (RHP), ATH

Note: Civale is not confirmed as the starter at the time of this writing, but he’s the most likely option to toe the rubber for the A’s tonight.

The Royals have been stuck in the mud for much of the season, but they’ve shown signs of life recently and get the best hitting environment on the slate. Kansas City has averaged 7.7 runs per game over their last six and, in that span, they lead MLB in AVG (.309), OPS (.934), and wOBA (.407) while ranking second with a 154 wRC+. The road splits have been ugly overall (2.50 runs per game), but Sutter Health Park has played as the No. 1 hitter-friendly venue this season, so this is a good spot for that to normalize a bit.

As noted, Civale isn’t officially confirmed, but he’s the most likely starter. He’s been fine on the surface through five outings, though the underlying numbers are less encouraging. His 3.86 ERA is paired with a 4.51 xFIP, and the strikeouts haven’t been there (18.8% kRate). He’s also allowing a 49.4% HardHit%, which is the third-highest mark among today’s starters. Civale hasn’t worked beyond 5.2 innings in any start this season, so Kansas City should see a good chunk of the A’s bullpen, which has been fairly middle-of-the-pack.

Favorite KC Bats: Bobby Witt Jr., Carter Jensen, Vinnie Pasquantino

Bargain Bats: Jac Caglianone, Isaac Collins

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Chicago Cubs vs. Walker Buehler (RHP), SD

The Cubs remain red hot at the plate but, on a slate this large, they’re still projecting for relatively low ownership – only one hitter in the projected lineup checks in above 8% pOwn%. Over the last two weeks, they continue to lead MLB in AVG (.301), OPS (.885), wOBA (.389), and wRC+ (150) while also flashing power (.201 ISO, 4th).

Buehler has had a couple of solid outings and has done a decent job keeping the ball on the ground (48.4% GB%), but the overall profile is still underwhelming. He enters with a 5.75 ERA, 4.94 xERA, 1.62 WHIP, and a 90 Pitching+ rating. The contact quality has been an issue as well, ranking in the 14th percentile in xBA (.286) and 17th percentile in average exit velocity (91.2 mph). As mentioned yesterday, the Padres bullpen has not been in great form, posting a 4.91 ERA over the last two weeks, and they’ve been heavily used recently with 192 pitches thrown over the past three days. Mason Miller also looked human yesterday, allowing a couple of runs and throwing 21 pitches, so the best closer in baseball might not be available to pitch tonight.

Favorite CHC Bats: Seiya Suzuki, Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong

Bargain Bats: Moises Ballesteros, Carson Kelly

Note: No one-off or bargain bat lists today but I’ll get those back online tomorrow!

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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