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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Depending on your preferred DFS site, Monday sets up with either a seven-game main slate on DraftKings or a six-gamer on FanDuel. DraftKings gets things started a bit earlier at 6:40 ET with the STL at PIT game included. There’s a solid balance between pitching and hitting/stack options, though this slate could lean slightly lower-scoring given the number of quality arms taking the mound. We’ll also need to monitor weather in a couple of spots – SEA at MIN (mild-to-moderate risk) and LAA at CWS (moderate-to-high risk). More on those potential weather problems below. Let’s get into it. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣4/27 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts. Note: I’m not a meteorologist so don’t treat these forecast previews as gospel! It’s always best to run a pre-game weather check for any at-risk games.

Weather Key: 🟡 Chance for delay | 🟠 Elevated delay / PPD risk | 🔴 High PPD risk
🔵 Favorable for pitchers (cold/wind in) | 🟢 Favorable for hitters (warm/wind out)

• STL at PIT (6:40 ET, 8.0 O/U): DK-only. Around 70 degrees with ~10 mph winds IN from center. Moderate downgrade for bats.

• SEA at MIN (7:40 ET, 9.0 O/U): Steady rain is currently over Minneapolis, but it’s expected to clear around first pitch. Some lighter, on-and-off rain is possible during the game, with heavier storms arriving later in the evening. Lean is that they get this game in, but delay risk – and some chance it doesn’t go a full nine – is in play. Temps in the 50s with ~15 mph winds OUT to center.

• LAA at CWS (7:40 ET, 9.0 O/U): A heavier band of rain has already cleared Chicago, but more storms are expected later. If that second wave holds south of the ballpark, they should play. If not, this could be a washout. Both risk games start at 7:40 ET, so a pre-lock radar check is critical. Winds IN at 10–15 mph.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Dylan Cease (RHP), TOR | DK: $10k, FD: $10.7k | vs. BOS

This slate is anchored by a trio of aces at the top, and it’s going to be tough to avoid them. We’ll start with Cease, who has been outstanding through the first month. Across 25.2 innings, he’s posted a 2.10 ERA, 2.06 xFIP, 39.6% kRate, 17.0% SwStr%, and a 54.9% ground-ball rate. The one concern has been control, with a 12.6% walk rate, but the strikeout and swing-and-miss numbers have been elite – Cease leads all qualified pitchers (min. 20 IP) in both kRate and SwStr%.

He’ll face a Red Sox lineup that has been struggling and just underwent a major coaching shakeup. Over the last two weeks vs. RHPs, Boston ranks bottom-five in AVG, OPS, wOBA, ISO, and wRC+. They also haven’t been drawing a ton of walks, which helps offset Cease’s control issues. The matchup lines up well against Cease’s primary pitch mix (four-seam, slider, changeup, sweeper), with the Red Sox posting a .221 AVG, .293 wOBA, and an MLB-low .104 ISO while posting a 30.9% whiff rate (3rd-highest). Five projected hitters in the Red Sox lineup also carry kRates of at least 27.6% vs. RHPs, reinforcing the strikeout upside. If he keeps the walks in check, this sets up as another high-end spot for Cease.

Max Fried (LHP), NYY | DK: $9.7k, FD: $10.9k | at TEX

As mentioned, it’s tough to get away from the top tier today, so we’ll highlight another high-end arm in Fried. After a rough outing against the Angels a couple starts back, he bounced back in a big way last time out, tossing eight shutout innings against Boston with nine strikeouts. Fried leads this slate with a 2.28 xERA and owns an elite 0.77 WHIP across 41.1 innings. The strikeout numbers haven’t been quite as strong (20.5% kRate, 9.9% SwStr%), but this matchup sets up well for that to tick up.

Texas has struggled badly against lefties. Across 266 PAs vs. LHPs, they rank bottom-three in AVG (.207), OPS (.595), wOBA (.272), and wRC+ (68) while striking out at an MLB-high 29.7% clip. They’ve also been the worst home offense in baseball, averaging just 2.75 runs per game. Fried already limits hard contact at a high level, and that should hold here with the Rangers ranking dead last in HardHit% (34.3%) against his primary pitch mix (cutter, sinker, four-seam, curveball). This is about as strong of a matchup as Fried could ask for and I don’t believe anyone should be surprised if he comes out of this game with double-digit strikeouts.

Connor Prielipp (LHP), MIN | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7.6k | vs. SEA

Reminder: Monitor weather conditions here.

There’s only so much we can take from one start, but Prielipp looked solid in his MLB debut last Wednesday. The Twins’ top pitching prospect allowed two runs on four hits across 4.0 innings against the Mets, but didn’t issue a walk and struck out six (35.3% kRate). The underlying metrics were strong as well, finishing with a 1.91 xFIP and a 126 Pitching+ rating while generating an elite 43.4% Chase Rate. He also showed strong form at Triple-A, posting a 2.30 ERA, 2.93 xFIP, .200 opponent AVG, and a 34.9% kRate across 15.2 innings.

This isn’t an easy matchup for a pitcher making just his second career start. Seattle struggled against lefties early, but has been much better recently. Over the last two weeks vs. LHPs, they’ve posted a .858 OPS, .368 wOBA, .257 ISO, and a 137 wRC+ with a low 16.9% kRate. That said, their full-season splits are less intimidating, and the matchup against Prielipp’s primary mix (slider, four-seam, changeup) is favorable – against that mix, Seattle owns just a .194 AVG and .279 wOBA with a low 35.3% HardHit%. Prielipp clearly has the tools to be a quality MLB starter, but he’ll have to continue to prove it against big league hitters. If the weather holds, there’s some real upside here relative to price if he can get through five solid innings.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP), LAD | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10.4k | vs. MIA

Matthew Boyd (LHP), CHC | DK: $7.7k, FD: $9.1k | at SD

DraftKings Main Slate Only

Dustin May (RHP), STL | $6,300 | at PIT

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chris Paddack (RHP), MIA

Despite ranking second in MLB with 5.68 runs per game, you could argue the Dodgers haven’t fully clicked offensively yet, which is a scary thought. Even so, they still lead the league against RHPs in AVG (.279), OPS (.823), wOBA (.361), ISO (.193), and wRC+ (129), and that’s with Mookie Betts (oblique) missing most of the season.

Paddack brings a slate-worst 6.38 ERA into this start and ranks last among today’s pitchers with a 90 Stuff+, so the overall pitch quality hasn’t been great. To his credit, the underlying numbers are better (3.80 xERA, 3.64 xFIP), but going on the road to face the Dodgers is far from an ideal spot to correct course. The Dodgers line up extremely well against Paddack’s pitch mix (four-seam, changeup, cutter, sweeper), ranking first in AVG, wOBA, and xwOBA, and second in ISO. Paddack has worked beyond 4.2 innings just once this season, so a good portion of this game should come against a Marlins bullpen that has settled in as more of a middle-of-the-pack unit after a hot start.

Favorite LAD Bats: Shohei Ohtani, Max Muncy, Will Smith

Bargain Bats: Dalton Rushing (if in the lineup), Hyeseong Kim

Los Angeles Angels vs. Anthony Kay (LHP), CWS

We’ll need some cooperation from the weather here, but if this game plays, the Angels are in a strong spot. Their production against lefties has cooled a bit recently, but this is more about attacking Anthony Kay. He’s been crushed by right-handed bats, and the Angels are likely to roll out a heavily right-handed lineup again. Against RHBs, Kay has allowed a .292 AVG, .419 wOBA, and .277 ISO, which has translated to a 7.04 ERA, 6.83 xFIP, 1.96 WHIP, and 2.35 HR/9 in those splits. He’s also generated just a 7.8% kRate vs. righties, which is notable given the swing-and-miss tendencies in this Angels lineup.

The bullpen behind him doesn’t help matters. Chicago’s relievers have been worked quite a bit over the last couple of days and enter this game with a 5.17 xFIP (3rd-worst) and 1.64 WHIP (5th-worst) over the past two weeks. As always, keep an eye on the radar, but if conditions allow, this is a clear spot to target Angels bats.

Favorite LAA Bats: Mike Trout, Zach Neto, Jo Adell

Bargain Bats: Oswald Peraza, Jorge Soler, Vaughn Grissom

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Chicago Cubs vs. Randy Vasquez (RHP), SD

Every hitter in the projected Cubs lineup is coming in at ≤10% pOwn%, with eight hitters under 5%. Chicago enters as one of the hottest offenses in baseball and, over the last two weeks, they lead MLB in AVG (.305), OPS (.892), wOBA (.393), and wRC+ (152).

Outside of one rough outing against Seattle, Vasquez has been sharp, allowing zero or one run in his other four starts, leading to a 1.88 ERA across 28.2 IP. That said, the underlying numbers point toward regression. His 4.29 xERA is subpar, and his 94 Pitching+ is the lowest mark among today’s starters. He’s also allowed 11 barrels (bottom 5th percentile) and has somehow given up just one home run despite that contact profile. Vasquez leans heavily on his fastballs (four-seam, cutter, sinker), and that plays into Chicago’s strengths. Against RHP fastballs this season, the Cubs have posted a .373 wOBA, .200 ISO, and a 47.4% HardHit% with just a 17.5% kRate. The Padres bullpen behind him hasn’t been in great form either. Mason Miller is still posting unbelievable numbers as the team’s closer but, overall, this bullpen has put up a 4.95 ERA, 4.13 xFIP, and 1.48 WHIP over the last two weeks.

Favorite CHC Bats: Seiya Suzuki, Ian Happ, Nico Hoerner

Bargain Bats: Moises Ballesteros, Carson Kelly

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge, NYY vs. Jack Leiter (RHP), TEX

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD vs. Chris Paddack (RHP), MIA

OF Mike Trout, LAA vs. Anthony Kay (LHP), CWS

1B Munetaka Murakami, CWS vs. Jack Kochanowicz (RHP), LAA

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR vs. Ranger Suarez (LHP), BOS

2B/OF Fernando Tatis Jr., SD vs. Matthew Boyd (LHP), CHC

OF Byron Buxton, MIN vs. Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA

C Cal Raleigh, SEA vs. Connor Prielipp (LHP), MIN

OF Seiya Suzuki, CHC vs. Randy Vasquez (RHP), SD

DraftKings Main Slate Only

2B Brandon Lowe, PIT vs. Dustin May (RHP), STL

2B JJ Wetherholt, STL vs. Wilber Dotel (RHP – PLR), PIT

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

To qualify as a bargain bat, hitters must be ≤ $4,000 on DraftKings.

2B Jazz Chisholm Jr., NYY vs. Jack Leiter (RHP), TEX

C Dalton Rushing, LAD vs. Chris Paddack (RHP), MIA

2B/3B Oswald Peraza, LAA vs. Anthony Kay (LHP), CWS

3B Kazuma Okamoto, TOR vs. Ranger Suarez (LHP), BOS

OF Jorge Soler, LAA vs. Anthony Kay (LHP), CWS

C Moises Ballesteros, CHC vs. Randy Vasquez (RHP), SD

SS Jose Caballero, NYY vs. Jack Leiter (RHP), TEX

C Carson Kelly, CHC vs. Randy Vasquez (RHP), SD

2B/3B Ernie Clement, TOR vs. Ranger Suarez (LHP), BOS

3B Josh Jung, TEX vs. Max Fried (LHP), NYY

SS Hyeseong Kim, LAD vs. Chris Paddack (RHP), MIA

2B Vaughn Grissom, LAA vs. Anthony Kay (LHP), CWS

OF Myles Straw, TOR vs. Ranger Suarez (LHP), BOS

DraftKings Main Slate Only

SS Masyn Winn, STL vs. Wilber Dotel (RHP – PLR), PIT

SS Konnor Griffin, PIT vs. Dustin May (RHP), STL

OF Nathan Church, STL vs. Wilber Dotel (RHP – PLR), PIT

1B Spencer Horwitz, PIT vs. Dustin May (RHP), STL

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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