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LineStar MLB DFS Show w/ Tyler Wiemann 🎙️

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No DFS vid for this slate!

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

It’s Thursday, so you know what that means – with only a puny three-game evening slate, we’ll be focusing on the early slate. That gives us a six-gamer starting at 1:05 ET. Pitching is strong at the top and there are a few viable options further down as well. There are still some quality spots for offense as well – Coors Field is still in play (maybe Tyler’s Padres can start hitting today?), and three games come with totals of at least nine runs. Should be a fun slate to break down so let’s get into it. Best of luck!

Quick Note: For these early slates, I’ll be switching to a quick-hits bullet format since this is being written the night before. As always, make sure to check weather and confirmed lineups closer to lock in case of any changes!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣4/23 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts. Note: I’m not a meteorologist so don’t treat these forecast previews as gospel! It’s always best to run a pre-game weather check for any at-risk games.

Weather Key: 🟡 Chance for delay | 🟠 Elevated delay / PPD risk | 🔴 High PPD risk
🔵 Favorable for pitchers (cold/wind in) | 🟢 Favorable for hitters (warm/wind out)

• ATL at WAS (1:05 ET, 9.0 O/U): 80 degrees with 5–10 mph crosswinds (left-to-right). Still a favorable spot for offense.
  

• MIL at DET (1:10 ET, 7.0 O/U): 70 degrees with 5–10 mph winds IN from left. Slight lean toward pitchers.
  

• PHI at CHC (2:20 ET, 9.0 O/U): Around 75 degrees with 10–15 mph winds OUT to left (gusts 20+). Clear boost for bats at a very wind-sensitive park like Wrigley.
  

• SD at COL (3:10 ET, 11.0 O/U): Mid-60s with 10–15 mph crosswinds (L-to-R). Neutral for now, besides the standard Coors Field bump, but worth monitoring in case winds shift out.
  

• CWS at ARI (3:40 ET, 8.5 O/U): The Chase Field roof will be closed for the day game. Neutral conditions.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Tarik Skubal (LHP), DET | DK: $10.2k, FD: $11k | vs. MIL

• Hasn’t fully looked like peak Skubal, but the results are still elite: 2.08 ERA, 2.74 xFIP, 0.96 WHIP, 28.0% kRate, 119 Pitching+ (5th in MLB) across 30.1 IP.

• Strikeouts trending up – 36.2% kRate over his last two starts.

• Solid pitching environment in Detroit with cooler temps and 5–10 mph winds blowing in.

• Tigers (-219 ML) are the heaviest favorites on the slate.

• Brewers vs. LHPs: .221 AVG (21st), .646 OPS (20th), 89 wRC+ (20th), 23.1% kRate.

• Current MIL roster (43 PAs): .150 AVG, .188 wOBA, 37.2% kRate vs. Skubal.

• Clearly a safe SP1 if you can find some value elsewhere.

Tyler Glasnow (RHP), LAD | DK: $8.7k, FD: $9.9k | at SF

• Still priced under $10k on both sites despite a strong start: 25.0 IP, 3.24 ERA, 2.86 xFIP, 0.84 WHIP, .169 opponent AVG, 30.5% kRate.

• Limited hard contact with just four barrels allowed (6.7% Barrel%).

• Elite extension (99th percentile) – effectively shortens hitter reaction time and makes his velocity play up.

• Giants averaging just 2.83 runs per game at home.

• Giants vs. RHPs at home: .203 AVG, .523 OPS, .069 ISO, 52 wRC+, 21.1% kRate.

• Current SF roster (121 PAs): .284 xwOBA vs. Glasnow.

• Strong SP1/SP2 option if you’re not paying all the way up for Skubal or looking to pair two high-end arms on DK.

Michael Soroka (RHP), ARI | DK: $7.7k, FD: $10.7k | vs. CWS

• Much more appealing on DraftKings at $7,700.

• Strong results through four starts (22.2 IP): 2.78 ERA, 3.07 xFIP, 1.06 WHIP, 30.1% kRate.

• Not without risk – 16.1% Barrel% (6th percentile) and 91.7 mph avg exit velo (11th percentile).

• White Sox have been mashing the ball, but most of their recent power surge has come against lefties.

• CWS vs. RHPs: .214 AVG (29th), .661 OPS (26th), .133 ISO (23rd), 89 wRC+ (24th), 24.1% kRate (6th-highest).

• CWS against Soroka’s five-pitch mix: lowest AVG (.216), 3rd-lowest wOBA (.311), 4th-lowest EV (87.7 mph), 2nd-highest Whiff% (26.7%).

• Roof closed at Chase Field – reduces HR upside.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Cristopher Sanchez (LHP), PHI | DK: $9k, FD: $10.2k | at CHC

Davis Martin (RHP), CWS | DK: $7k, FD: $8.8k | at ARI

FanDuel Slate Only

JR Ritchie (RHP), ATL | DK: N/A, FD: $5.5k | at WAS

Note: Ritchie is not available on DraftKings currently, but makes for an intriguing punt play on FanDuel. This will be his MLB debut, so the risk is there, but he’s ranked as the Braves’ No. 2 prospect (via MLB.com) and has looked great in Triple-A: 27.1 IP, 0.99 ERA, 4.27 xFIP, 1.02 WHIP, .167 opp AVG, 26.2% kRate. The xFIP is a little concerning but the tools are there.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

San Diego Padres vs. Ryan Feltner (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Matt Waldron (RHP), SD

Non-Coors Stacks

Atlanta Braves (LHBs Preferred) vs. Cade Cavalli (RHP), WAS

• ATL bats remain hot – over the last two weeks vs. RHPs they rank top-three in AVG (.272), OPS (.789), wOBA (.352), ISO (.177), and wRC+ (121) while keeping strikeouts in check (19.9% kRate).

• 4.7 implied runs – highest among non-Coors teams.

• Cavalli hasn’t allowed a HR yet, but has struggled badly vs. LHBs: .400 AVG, .422 wOBA, 2.10 WHIP.

• Also owns a 6.36 xFIP vs. RHBs, so righties remain firmly in play.

• Braves lead MLB with a .390 xwOBA vs. Cavalli’s primary pitch mix.

• Warm temps in Washington, and Nationals Park has played as a top-three hitter-friendly park.

• Nationals bullpen is one of the worst in baseball: bottom-five in ERA (5.51), xFIP (4.88), WHIP (1.51), kRate (17.5%), and HR/9 (1.68).

Favorite ATL Bats: Drake Baldwin, Matt Olson, Michael Harris II

Bargain Bats: Dominic Smith, Ozzie Albies

Detroit Tigers vs. Brandon Sproat (RHP), MIL

• Tigers have been hot vs. RHPs over the last week: .308 AVG (1st), .788 OPS (6th), .348 wOBA (6th), 119 wRC+ (7th), 16.5% kRate (3rd-lowest).

• Sproat had a solid last outing (6.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K vs. TOR) but has struggled overall: 6.88 ERA, 5.49 xERA, 1.71 WHIP, 46.8% HardHit%, 2.12 HR/9.

• Underlying profile is rough – bottom 20th percentile in xERA, avg exit velo, Chase%, and Pitching Run Value.

• Tigers match up well vs. his mix (sinker, cutter, sweeper, curveball): .281 AVG (3rd), .348 wOBA (7th), .352 xwOBA (4th).

• Brewers bullpen has been middling with the 7th-highest WHIP (1.50).

Favorite DET Bats: Kevin McGonigle, Riley Greene, Dillon Dingler

Bargain Bats: Colt Keith, Kerry Carpenter, Jahmai Jones

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Chicago Cubs vs. Cristopher Sanchez (LHP), PHI

• No ownership projections yet, but the Cubs should come in relatively low-owned against a high-end arm like Sanchez.

• Cubs have crushed LHPs over the last two weeks: 1st in AVG (.323), OPS (.943), wOBA (.419), and wRC+ (168) with just a 17.7% kRate.

• Sanchez keeps the ball on the ground (59.2% GB%), but Wrigley conditions are dangerous today with 10–15 mph winds (20+ gusts) blowing out to left.

• Has allowed nine barrels (bottom 10th percentile) and has averaged 44.0% fewer FPPG on the road.

• Current CHC roster (56 PAs): .271 AVG, .371 wOBA vs. Sanchez.

• Phillies bullpen has been average, and four relievers threw 15+ pitches yesterday, which could limit availability.

Favorite CHC Bats: Nico Hoerner, Seiya Suzuki, Ian Happ

Bargain Bats: Alex Bregman, Carson Kelly

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD vs. Logan Webb (RHP), SF

OF Corbin Carroll, ARI vs. Davis Martin (RHP), CWS

OF James Wood, WAS vs. JR Ritchie (RHP), ATL

OF Kyle Schwarber, PHI vs. Edward Cabrera (RHP), CHC

2B Nico Hoerner, CHC vs. Cristopher Sanchez (LHP), PHI

2B Brice Turang, MIL vs. Tarik Skubal (LHP), DET

1B Munetaka Murakami, CWS vs. Michael Soroka (RHP), ARI

C Hunter Goodman, COL vs. Matt Waldron (RHP), SD

OF Ramon Laureano, SD vs. Ryan Feltner (RHP), COL

C Drake Baldwin, ATL vs. Cade Cavalli (RHP), WAS

3B/SS Kevin McGonigle, DET vs. Brandon Sproat (RHP), MIL

3B Matt Chapman, SF vs. Tyler Glasnow (RHP), LAD

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

To qualify as a bargain bat, hitters must be ≤ $4,000 on DraftKings.

SS Geraldo Perdomo, ARI vs. Davis Martin (RHP), CWS

OF Kerry Carpenter, DET vs. Brandon Sproat (RHP), MIL

2B Ozzie Albies, ATL vs. Cade Cavalli (RHP), WAS

3B/OF Miguel Andujar, SD vs. Ryan Feltner (RHP), COL

1B/C Dalton Rushing, LAD vs. Logan Webb (RHP), SF

C Adrian Del Castillo, ARI vs. Davis Martin (RHP), CWS

1B/2B Ildemaro Vargas, ARI vs. Davis Martin (RHP), CWS

1B/OF Dominic Smith, ATL vs. Cade Cavalli (RHP), WAS

3B Colt Keith, DET vs. Brandon Sproat (RHP), MIL

OF Michael Harris II, ATL vs. Cade Cavalli (RHP), WAS

OF Jacob Young, WAS vs. JR Ritchie (RHP), ATL

OF Sam Antonacci, CWS vs. Michael Soroka (RHP), ARI

OF Justin Crawford, PHI vs. Edward Cabrera (RHP), CHC

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter/X. Repost the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet for your chance to win prizes!

No HR calls contest today! Back at it tomorrow!

🔥📊 Props AI 📊🔥