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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Another nine-game slate is on deck with a 6:40 ET start. Wednesdays are always great for baseball – we usually get a solid afternoon slate followed by a full evening slate. Pitching looks a bit thin overall, but there are still some intriguing arms to work with, and the offensive upside stands out more than usual. Should be a fun slate to dig into. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣4/22 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts. Note: I’m not a meteorologist so don’t treat these forecast previews as gospel! It’s always best to run a pre-game weather check for any at-risk games.

Weather Key: 🟡 Chance for delay | 🟠 Elevated delay / PPD risk | 🔴 High PPD risk
🔵 Favorable for pitchers (cold/wind in) | 🟢 Favorable for hitters (warm/wind out)

• MIL at DET (6:40 ET, 8.0 O/U): Around 70 degrees with ~10 mph winds mostly OUT to right, slightly left-to-right. Mild boost for bats.

• NYY at BOS (6:45 ET, 7.5 O/U): Temps in the mid-40s with light winds OUT to left. Overall downgrade for hitters. Some rain is possible, but not currently expected to be heavy enough to impact play. Worth a radar check closer to first pitch to be certain.

• MIN at NYM (7:10 ET, 7.5 O/U): Mid-50s with light winds IN from center. Lean toward pitchers getting a boost.

• PHI at CHC (7:40 ET, 8.0 O/U): Temps in the 50s with 5–10 mph winds IN from left-center. Pitcher-friendly setup.

• SD at COL (8:40 ET, 12.5 O/U): Temps in the 70s with 10–15 mph winds OUT to right, gusting up to 20 mph. Clear boost for bats.

• CWS at ARI (9:40 ET, 9.0 O/U): Roof will be open. Temps in Phoenix will be around 80 degrees. Slight bump for bats.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Shohei Ohtani (RHP), LAD | DK: $10.1k, FD: $10.3k | at SF

On a slate with plenty of uncertainty on the mound, it’s tough to look past Ohtani. His first three starts have been excellent, resulting in a 0.50 ERA, 2.28 xERA, 0.72 WHIP, and a 26.1% kRate. The strikeouts haven’t fully popped to “Ohtani levels” yet, but he’s coming off a 10-K outing and the underlying stuff looks elite, ranking 8th among MLB pitchers (min. 10.0 IP) with a 112 Stuff+ rating. He’s also limited hard contact with just two barrels allowed (4.5% Barrel%) and a strong 50% ground-ball rate.

Yamamoto gave up three runs in the first inning in the series opener against the Giants last night but settled in to throw seven innings with seven strikeouts and no further damage. That aligns with what we’ve seen from this offense at home. The Giants are averaging just 2.82 runs per game at Oracle and have struggled badly against righties there. Across 251 PAs vs. RHPs at home, they’ve posted a .203 AVG, .523 OPS, .069 ISO, and an MLB-worst 52 wRC+. The 21.1% kRate isn’t overly high, but Ohtani has still dominated this roster in a small sample, holding them to a .176 AVG with a 32.7% kRate across 55 PAs. With the Dodgers sitting as the heaviest favorites on the slate (-207), this sets up as a strong spot for Ohtani to deliver six-plus innings with solid strikeout production and a good shot at the win bonus.

Braxton Ashcraft (RHP), PIT | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9.8k | at TEX

Ashcraft has been excellent through four starts (22.2 IP). He enters tonight with a 2.38 ERA, 1.98 xERA, 1.06 WHIP, 29.7% kRate, and a 52.7% ground-ball rate. He’s allowed just two barrels (3.6% Barrel%), and his .171 opponent expected batting average ranks in the 93rd percentile. Dating back to last season, his pitch count had been somewhat limited when starting, but he’s now thrown at least 87 pitches in three of four outings, including a career-high 90 in his last start.

As poor as the aforementioned Giants have been at home, the Rangers have been even worse, ranking dead last in runs per game at home (2.43). Against RHPs at home (214 PAs), they’ve posted a .227 AVG, .630 OPS, and a 79 wRC+. The 21.0% kRate isn’t overly high, but they do own the sixth-highest whiff rate (25.6%) against Ashcraft’s primary mix of four-seamer, curveball, slider, and sinker – indicating that the strikeout upside should still be solid for Ashcraft in this spot. If those home struggles continue for the Rangers, this sets up as another strong outing for Ashcraft.

Connor Prielipp (LHP), MIN | DK: $4k, FD: $7.3k | at NYM

Every once in a while on DraftKings, we get a starting pitcher – usually a debut arm – priced all the way down at $4,000. That’s the case with Prielipp, who gets the call to make his first big league start here. He’s a former second-round pick and Minnesota’s top pitching prospect per MLB.com, and has flashed legit swing-and-miss stuff when healthy. Injuries have been a big part of his journey, but he’s looked sharp at Triple-A this year, posting a 2.30 ERA, 2.92 xFIP, .200 opponent AVG, and a 34.9% kRate, including an eight-strikeout outing in his most recent start.

Prielipp will have a chance to help hand the Mets their 13th straight loss. Against LHPs during this stretch (since April 8), New York has posted a .186 AVG, .509 OPS, and a 46 wRC+ with a 21.3% kRate. Juan Soto is back in the lineup after nearly three weeks of being sidelined with a calf injury, but one bat doesn’t fix how poor this lineup has been top-to-bottom. There’s obvious risk with a debut arm, and Prielipp could be on a short leash, but it’s tough to ignore him as an SP2 on DraftKings at this price. Even four to five solid innings would be enough to pay off the $4,000 tag.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Max Fried (LHP), NYY | DK: $9.7k, FD: $10.5k | at BOS

Matthew Boyd (LHP), CHC | DK: $7.7k, FD: $9.6k | vs. PHI

Walker Buehler (RHP), SD | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.3k | at COL

Didier Fuentes (RHP), ATL | DK: $6.8k, FD: $6.1k | at WAS

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

San Diego Padres vs. Tomoyuki Sugano (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Walker Buehler (RHP), SD

Non-Coors Stacks

Chicago Cubs vs. Kyle Backhus (LHP – PO)/Taijuan Walker (RHP – PLR), PHI

The Phillies will go the opener route here, using Backhus to navigate the top of the Cubs’ order before turning things over to Walker. Backhus has shown strong strikeout ability (32.1% kRate) with a solid 2.13 xFIP, but the results haven’t followed (5.40 ERA in 6.2 IP), and right-handed bats have done serious damage against him (.367 wOBA, .333 ISO). That said, with Walker expected to handle the bulk of the innings, he’s the main target. He’s been a mess this season, posting a 9.16 ERA, 7.11 xERA, 2.04 WHIP, 82 Pitching+, and a 26.1% HR/FB rate while generating very little swing-and-miss (6.4% SwStr%). He ranks in the bottom 10th percentile in xERA, xBA, Pitching Run Value, and Whiff%. With Backhus opening, the bullpen behind Walker could be limited to just two or three arms since the Phillies used five relievers yesterday, so if Walker runs into trouble, he may be forced to wear it for multiple innings.

The Cubs come in swinging hot bats and are riding a seven-game win streak. Over the last two weeks, they rank top-three in AVG (.284), OPS (.821), wOBA (.370), and wRC+ (135). Conditions at Wrigley aren’t ideal with cooler temps and winds blowing in from left, but this lineup hasn’t necessarily needed the long ball to generate offense lately.

Favorite CHC Bats: Nico Hoerner, Seiya Suzuki, Ian Happ

Bargain Bats: Carson Kelly, Moises Ballesteros, Dansby Swanson

Atlanta Braves vs. Zack Littell (RHP), WAS

Littell has struggled through four appearances (19.0 IP), posting a 7.11 ERA, 7.40 xERA, 1.74 WHIP, 15.7% kRate, and an 85 Pitching+ rating. He’s been hit hard consistently, ranking in the bottom 5th percentile in both barrels allowed (10) and average exit velocity (94.0 mph). He’ll also be backed by a Nationals bullpen that has been one of the worst in baseball, ranking bottom-five in ERA (5.51), xFIP (4.88), WHIP (1.51), kRate (17.5%), and HR/9 (1.68).

The Braves have been excellent against righties, ranking top-three in AVG (.272), OPS (.789), wOBA (.352), ISO (.177), and wRC+ (121) while keeping the strikeouts in check (sub-20% kRate). They’re also hitting an MLB-best .317 AVG with runners in scoring position vs. RHPs. Against Littell’s primary mix (slider, four-seam, splitter, sinker), Atlanta leads the league with a .401 xwOBA alongside a strong 48.2% HardHit rate. Conditions in DC are more neutral tonight with temps around 70 degrees, but that’s still an upgrade from the cooler games earlier in the series, and Nationals Park has played as a top-three hitter-friendly park so far this season.

Favorite ATL Bats: Matt Olson, Drake Baldwin, Ronald Acuña Jr.

Bargain Bats: Michael Harris II, Austin Riley, Mauricio Dubon

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Chicago White Sox vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), ARI

Going right back to the well here. The “lowly” White Sox delivered in a big way last night with 11 runs on 14 hits (four HRs), yet we’re still looking at a projected lineup where every hitter is coming in under 10% pOwn%. They haven’t hit for average against lefties (.228 AVG), but the power has been elite – they lead MLB with a .228 ISO vs. LHPs, and 18.6% of their fly balls in that split have left the yard. Four hitters in this lineup own a .400+ ISO against lefties, and with the roof expected to be open again at Chase Field, the home run upside remains very real.

The matchup isn’t quite as favorable as it was against a rusty Merrill Kelly yesterday, but there are still paths here. Rodriguez enters with a 1.96 ERA through four starts and has allowed just two home runs (0.78 HR/9), but the underlying profile is less convincing with a 4.64 xFIP and limited swing-and-miss (14.6% kRate, 7.0% SwStr%). That should allow Chicago to put plenty of balls in play. Once he exits, they’ll face a fairly average Arizona bullpen, which keeps the door open for some late-inning production. You don’t need to go full stack mode here, but pairing two or three White Sox bats creates some interesting leverage.

Favorite CWS Bats: Munetaka Murakami, Miguel Vargas, Colson Montgomery

Bargain Bats: Everson Pereira, Chase Meidroth

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge, NYY vs. Ranger Suarez (LHP), BOS

OF Oneil Cruz, PIT vs. Jack Leiter (RHP), TEX

OF Corbin Carroll, ARI vs. Anthony Kay (LHP), CWS

OF James Wood, WAS vs. Didier Fuentes (RHP), ATL

2B/OF Fernando Tatis Jr., SD vs. Tomoyuki Sugano (RHP), COL

1B Freddie Freeman, LAD vs. Tyler Mahle (RHP), SF

OF Juan Soto, NYM vs. Connor Prielipp (LHP), MIN

OF Byron Buxton, MIN vs. Clay Holmes (RHP), NYM

2B Brice Turang, MIL vs. Casey Mize (RHP), DET

OF Brandon Nimmo, TEX vs. Braxton Ashcraft (RHP), PIT

1B Bryce Harper, PHI vs. Matthew Boyd (LHP), CHC

2B Nico Hoerner, CHC vs. Taijuan Walker (RHP – PLR), PHI

C Hunter Goodman, COL vs. Walker Buehler (RHP), SD

1B Matt Olson, ATL vs. Zack Littell (RHP), WAS

3B/SS Kevin McGonigle, DET vs. Chad Patrick (RHP – PLR), MIL

3B Miguel Vargas, CWS vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), ARI

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

To qualify as a bargain bat, hitters must be ≤ $4,000 on DraftKings.

OF Mickey Moniak, COL vs. Walker Buehler (RHP), SD

1B Jake Bauers, MIL vs. Casey Mize (RHP), DET

3B Austin Riley, ATL vs. Zack Littell (RHP), WAS

1B/2B Ildemaro Vargas, ARI vs. Anthony Kay (LHP), CWS

C Moises Ballesteros, CHC vs. Taijuan Walker (RHP – PLR), PHI

SS Dansby Swanson, CHC vs. Taijuan Walker (RHP – PLR), PHI

OF Lourdes Gurriel Jr., ARI vs. Anthony Kay (LHP), CWS

C Carson Kelly, CHC vs. Taijuan Walker (RHP – PLR), PHI

OF Everson Pereira, CWS vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), ARI

2B Chase Meidroth, CWS vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), ARI

OF/SS Mauricio Dubon, ATL vs. Zack Littell (RHP), WAS

OF Michael Harris II, ATL vs. Zack Littell (RHP), WAS

SS Hyeseong Kim, LAD vs. Tyler Mahle (RHP), SF

OF Jahmai Jones, DET vs. Chad Patrick (RHP – PLR), MIL

OF Felix Reyes, PHI vs. Matthew Boyd (LHP), CHC

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