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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Apologies for no MLB newsletter yesterday, but we’re back in action with a nine-game Tuesday slate. This one offers a solid balance between pitching and hitting/stack options. Coors Field is back in play with the Padres visiting the Rockies, but there are also a few intriguing non-Coors offenses worth targeting. No major weather concerns either, which is always a plus. Let’s jump into it. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣4/21 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts. Note: I’m not a meteorologist so don’t treat these forecast previews as gospel! It’s always best to run a pre-game weather check for any at-risk games.

Weather Key: 🟡 Chance for delay | 🟠 Elevated delay / PPD risk | 🔴 High PPD risk
🔵 Favorable for pitchers (cold/wind in) | 🟢 Favorable for hitters (warm/wind out)

• MIN at NYM (7:10 ET, 7.5 O/U): Temps in the 40s with 10 mph winds OUT to left. Still leans pitcher-friendly overall.

• BAL at KC (7:40 ET, 9.0 O/U): Mid-70s with 15 mph winds OUT to left. Clear boost for bats.

• PHI at CHC (7:40 ET, 8.5 O/U): Some rain in the area but should be clear or clearing by first pitch. Mid-60s with light winds OUT to center.

• SD at COL (8:40 ET, 11.0 O/U): Around 80 degrees with 10 mph winds OUT to left. Strong hitting conditions, especially by April Coors Field standards – it snowed here just a few days ago!

• CWS at ARI (9:40 ET, 9.0 O/U): Roof expected to be open. Temps near 90 degrees at first pitch. Slight boost for bats compared to a closed roof.

• LAA at SF (9:45 ET, 7.0 O/U): Only game with any real weather concern. A few showers in the area – likely misses, but a delay is possible. Temps in the 50s in a pitcher-friendly park.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP), LAD | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10.9k | at SF

This feels like a slate where paying up at pitcher is more of a priority than usual, and Yamamoto stands out at the top of pricing on both sites. He’s been rock solid to start the season, even if the strikeouts haven’t fully materialized yet. He’s gone at least six innings in all four starts and, across 25.2 IP, owns a 2.10 ERA, 3.51 xFIP, 0.82 WHIP, and a 22.2% kRate. Given his strong 14.4% SwStr%, that strikeout rate should continue to trend upward, as we saw in his seven-strikeout outing against the Mets last week.

The matchup only adds to the appeal. The Giants have been awful at home, averaging just 2.80 runs per game. Against RHPs at home (223 PAs), they’ve posted a .198 AVG, .522 OPS, .238 wOBA, .077 ISO, and an MLB-worst 51 wRC+. They’ve also struggled against Yamamoto specifically, hitting just .139 with a .226 wOBA and a 27.8% kRate across 90 PAs. Assuming the weather holds at Oracle Park, this sets up as another strong all-around spot for Yamamoto.

Shota Imanaga (LHP), CHC | DK: $8.7k, FD: $10.4k | vs. PHI

Imanaga is coming off back-to-back dominant starts, including six no-hit innings with nine strikeouts against the Pirates, followed by six one-run innings (three hits) with 11 Ks against this same Phillies team. Through four starts (22.0 IP), he owns a 2.45 ERA, 2.49 xFIP, 0.77 WHIP, and a slate-best 37.8% kRate backed by a 16.4% SwStr%. The one concern is the fly-ball profile (52.2% FB%), which is something to keep an eye on at Wrigley when winds are blowing out, even if they aren’t especially strong tonight.

The matchup is the clear selling point. The Phillies have been one of the worst offenses in baseball against lefties to start the season. Across 277 PAs vs. LHPs, they’ve posted a .176 AVG (29th), .549 OPS (29th), .260 wOBA (28th), and a 59 wRC+ (30th). The 23.1% kRate is fairly neutral, but as we saw in the last meeting, Imanaga still carries plenty of strikeout upside here given his ability to make hitters chase – his 42.4% Chase% ranks in the 98th percentile of pitchers. There’s always some added risk with pitchers drawing back-to-back matchups against the same team, but the Phillies look completely out of sync right now, especially against left-handed pitching.

Kris Bubic (LHP), KC | DK: $8.4k, FD: $9.8k | vs. BAL

Interesting spot for Bubic here. He’s been solid overall (3.97 ERA, 3.79 xFIP, 1.06 WHIP, 29.2% kRate) across 22.2 IP, with the strikeout rate really standing out. After yesterday’s 12-inning game where the Royals used five relievers, they’ll likely look to get at least six, maybe seven, innings out of him if possible. Like Imanaga, the main concern is the fly-ball rate (50.9% FB%), especially with 15 mph winds blowing out to left at Kauffman tonight. That said, he’s only allowed two home runs so far (0.79 HR/9), so if he can continue to limit damage, this sets up as a workable spot.

The Orioles have been around league average against lefties, ranking 16th in OPS (.685) and 13th in wRC+ (101). The key here is the strikeouts – their 27.3% kRate vs. LHPs is the second-highest in baseball. They’ve also been less productive on the road (3.64 runs per game) compared to at home (4.83). There’s definitely some risk of giving up a couple of long balls, but if they come via solo shots and the strikeout upside shows up, Bubic is a reasonable option in this range.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Nolan McLean (RHP), NYM | DK: $8.5k, FD: $10.2k | vs. MIN

Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI | DK: $7.5k, FD: $9.2k | vs. CWS

Carmen Mlodzinski (RHP), PIT | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.2k | at TEX

Randy Vasquez (RHP), SD | DK: $7k, FD: $9.7k | at COL (DK SP2 Preferred)

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

San Diego Padres vs. Jimmy Herget (RHP – PO)/Chase Dollander (RHP – PLR)

Colorado Rockies vs. Randy Vasquez (RHP), SD

Non-Coors Stacks

Los Angeles Angels (RHBs Preferred) vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), TOR

There’s always a chance that Cy Corbin decides to show up randomly, but we’ll take our chances here. The Angels have been excellent against lefties, especially over the last two weeks where they rank top-six in OPS (.828), wOBA (.372), ISO (.198), and wRC+ (137). One thing to note is the home/road split – they’ve averaged 6.07 runs per game on the road compared to just 3.20 at home, so this is a slight downgrade in that sense. Still, the overall matchup is strong enough to target and the early offensive woes at home could just be some statistical noise.

Corbin has made just two starts this season, but the underlying numbers are rough – 7.91 xERA, 91 Stuff+, and a 48.1% fly-ball rate. Right-handed hitters have done most of the damage, posting a .333 AVG, .421 wOBA, and .259 ISO across 32 PAs, along with a 6.88 xFIP and 1.74 WHIP. That makes the right side the clear priority here. Toronto’s bullpen leads the league in xFIP (3.14) but owns a 4.70 ERA and used four high-leverage arms yesterday, so availability could be a bit thinner tonight.

Favorite LAA Bats: Mike Trout, Zach Neto, Jo Adell

Bargain Bats: Jorge Soler, Oswald Peraza

Kansas City Royals vs. Shane Baz (RHP), BAL

The Royals offense has been slow to get going, scoring 5+ runs in just 6 of 23 games so far. Still, this sets up as an interesting spot. After yesterday’s 12-inning game, Kansas City got seven innings from starter Seth Lugo, while Baltimore only got 5.1 from Kyle Bradish. That forced six O’s relievers into action, including all of their high-leverage arms. The path here is pretty clear – put pressure on Baz early and either force Baltimore to lean on their taxed bullpen or make him wear it for additional innings. Baz has been fairly average to start the year (4.91 ERA, 4.26 xFIP, 1.55 WHIP, 19.6% kRate, 100 Pitching+), while the Orioles bullpen has graded out top-10 in most key metrics. The situation gives KC a boost, even if the matchup itself isn’t perfect.

Conditions help as well. Temps in the mid-70s with 15 mph winds blowing out to left provide a clear bump for bats, which only adds to the appeal in this spot.

Favorite KC Bats: Bobby Witt Jr., Carter Jensen, Maikel Garcia

Bargain Bat: Jac Caglianone, Isaac Collins

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Chicago White Sox vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

Every hitter in the projected White Sox lineup is coming in under 10% pOwn%. On the season, they still rank near the bottom in most key offensive metrics, but they’ve been swinging it well lately. Over the last week, they rank 3rd in OPS (.839), wOBA (.372), ISO (.226), and wRC+ (137). The roof is expected to be open at Chase Field with temps around 90 degrees at first pitch, which should give a slight boost to carry.

Kelly made his season debut last Tuesday, so we’re working with a one-start sample. He finished that outing with a 9.24 xERA, 12.5% kRate, and an 82 Pitching+ rating. He only allowed two runs, but the overall profile showed some rust. Arizona’s bullpen has been solid and is well-rested, but if Chicago can get to Kelly early, they likely avoid the top arms out of the pen.

Favorite CWS Bats: Munetaka Murakami, Colson Montgomery, Miguel Vargas

Bargain Bats: Everson Pereira, Chase Meidroth

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD vs. Landen Roupp (RHP), SF

OF Corbin Carroll, ARI vs. Sean Burke (RHP), CWS

OF Oneil Cruz, PIT vs. TBA, TEX

2B/OF Fernando Tatis Jr., SD vs. Jimmy Herget (RHP – PO)/Chase Dollander (RHP – PLR)

1B Nick Kurtz, ATH vs. Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA

SS Zach Neto, LAA vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), TOR

C Hunter Goodman, COL vs. Randy Vasquez (RHP), SD

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR vs. Jack Kochanowicz (RHP), LAA

OF Byron Buxton, MIN vs. Nolan McLean (RHP), NYM

SS Corey Seager, TEX vs. Carmen Mlodzinski (RHP), PIT

2B Nico Hoerner, CHC vs. Jesus Luzardo (LHP), PHI

1B Munetaka Murakami, CWS vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

SS Trea Turner, PHI vs. Shota Imanaga (LHP), CHC

SS Francisco Lindor, NYM vs. Simeon Woods Richardson (RHP), MIN

OF Taylor Ward, BAL vs. Kris Bubic (LHP), KC

SS Willy Adames, SF vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP), LAD

C Carter Jensen, KC vs. Shane Baz (RHP), BAL

OF Randy Arozarena, SEA vs. Jacob Lopez (LHP), ATH

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

To qualify as a bargain bat, hitters must be ≤ $4,000 on DraftKings.

OF Daulton Varsho, TOR vs. Jack Kochanowicz (RHP), LAA

OF Jorge Soler, LAA vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), TOR

1B/2B Ildemaro Vargas, ARI vs. Sean Burke (RHP), CWS

C Adrian del Castillo, ARI vs. Sean Burke (RHP), CWS

2B Jeremiah Jackson, BAL vs. Kris Bubic (LHP), KC

SS Hyeseong Kim, LAD vs. Landen Roupp (RHP), SF

2B/3B Oswald Peraza, LAA vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), TOR

SS Konnor Griffin, PIT vs. TBA, TEX

OF Carlos Cortes, ATH vs. Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA

OF Jac Caglianone, KC vs. Shane Baz (RHP), BAL

3B Josh Jung, TEX vs. Carmen Mlodzinski (RHP), PIT

OF Isaac Collins, KC vs. Shane Baz (RHP), BAL

OF Eloy Jimenez, TOR vs. Jack Kochanowicz (RHP), LAA

OF MJ Melendez, NYM vs. Simeon Woods Richardson (RHP), MIN

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