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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

It’s a Friday frenzy with a 10-game main slate on the board. Pitching is fairly strong, and with colder conditions in a few spots, finding the right hitters and stacks may be the bigger challenge today. But we’re up for it, so let’s see what we can put together. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣4/17 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts. Note: I’m not a meteorologist so don’t treat these forecast previews as gospel! It’s always best to run a pre-game weather check for any at-risk games.

Weather Key: 🟡 Chance for delay | 🟠 Elevated delay / PPD risk | 🔴 High PPD risk
🔵 Favorable for pitchers (cold/wind in) | 🟢 Favorable for hitters (warm/wind out)

• KC at NYY (7:05 ET, 8.0 O/U): Light rain in the area, but nothing that should significantly impact play.

• DET at BOS (7:15 ET, 7.5 O/U): Temps in the 50s with light winds IN from center. Solid pitching conditions in a traditionally hitter-friendly park.

• CIN at MIN (8:10 ET, 8.0 O/U): Temps in the 40s with 15 mph winds OUT to center/right. Overall, this likely plays close to neutral, though the cold still makes it tempting to slightly downgrade hitters.

• LAD at COL (8:40 ET, 9.5 O/U): There is actually some snowfall earlier in the day, but it should clear out before first pitch. Around 40 degrees with light winds IN from center. It’s still Coors Field, but far from ideal hitting weather.

• TOR at ARI (9:40 ET, 8.5 O/U): Roof is scheduled to be open with temps around 80 degrees. Slight boost to bats compared to a closed roof.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Tyler Glasnow (RHP), LAD | DK: $8.9k, FD: $9.8k | at COL

If there’s ever a time to take a shot on a pitcher at Coors Field, it’s in conditions like this. Temperatures will be around 40 degrees with a light breeze blowing in from center, which should help limit carry and neutralize the typical Coors boost. It’s still inherently risky, but Tyler Glasnow is about as trustworthy as it gets in this spot. He’s off to a solid start through 18.0 innings. The 4.00 ERA isn’t eye-popping, but it’s supported by a strong 2.60 xERA and 2.84 xFIP, along with a 0.94 WHIP and 31.0% kRate. The Dodgers are also massive -308 favorites, a moneyline number you rarely see in MLB.

The Rockies have been solid against RHPs at home, but if we treat Coors as closer to neutral given the weather, their overall numbers against righties come into focus – .229 AVG, .685 OPS, 80 wRC+, and a 26.3% kRate. Those are middling at best. In a small sample (41 PAs), Glasnow has dominated this current Rockies roster, holding them to a minuscule .077 AVG and .098 wOBA while posting a monster 48.8% kRate. Colorado also owns an MLB-high 26.4% kRate against Glasnow’s pitch mix (curveball, four-seam, sinker, slider). All things considered, it’s tough not to like him here, even in Coors.

Jose Soriano (RHP), LAA | DK: $8.2k, FD: $10k | vs. SD

If the season inexplicably ended today, it’d be tough not to hand Jose Soriano the AL Cy Young award. Through four starts, he’s already logged 27.0 innings while posting a 0.33 ERA, 2.74 xFIP, 0.67 WHIP, 32.0% kRate, and a 60.7% GB%. He’s always been an elite groundball pitcher, but the strikeout rate has jumped nearly 10 percentage points above his 22.8% career mark. Whether that holds remains to be seen, but the stuff has clearly taken a step forward, and his 119 Pitching+ ranks third among all MLB pitchers.

The Padres are off to a great start and enter on an eight-game win streak, but the offense has still been fairly middle-of-the-pack overall. Against RHPs, they rank around league average in most key metrics. It’s still a tough test and the Padres excel at limiting strikeouts (19.1% kRate, 3rd-lowest), but Soriano has already shown he can handle strong lineups, as evidenced by his dominant outing against Atlanta (8.0 IP, 3 H, 0 BB, 1 ER, 10 K). Even in a tougher matchup, he carries plenty of upside.

Aaron Civale (RHP), ATH | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.1k | vs. CWS

This slate is loaded with high-end arms, but the value tier is thin. Civale stands out as one of the few affordable options worth considering. Across three starts against the Braves, Yankees, and Mets, he’s posted a strong 1.76 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. The underlying numbers suggest some regression (4.35 xFIP), and his 19.8% kRate (8.8% SwStr%) doesn’t stand out, but he has done an excellent job locating his pitches. His 109 Location+ ranks fifth in MLB and has helped him limit damage in tougher matchups.

This is a much softer spot. Against RHPs, the White Sox rank dead last in AVG (.191), OPS (.574), wOBA (.267), and wRC+ (66), while also striking out at a 25.5% clip (3rd-highest). They’ve also hit just .184 against Civale’s primary pitch mix (cutter, sinker, curveball). With the A’s (-163 ML) checking in as one of the heavier favorites on the slate, Civale fits nicely as an SP2 on DraftKings. The upside isn’t massive, but an 18–22 DKFP outing would more than get the job done at this price.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Jacob deGrom (RHP), TEX | DK: $9.2k, FD: $9.6k | at LAD

Joe Ryan (RHP), MIN | DK: $8.7k, FD: $8.9k | vs. CIN

Cam Schlittler (RHP), NYY | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.9k | vs. KC

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Tomoyuki Sugano (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Tyler Glasnow (RHP), LAD

Non-Coors Stacks

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Peter Lambert (RHP), HOU

I thought my Braves had it bad with rotation injuries, but the Astros are arguably in even worse shape. They currently have seven starters on the IL, and their bullpen, which is also without closer Josh Hader, has been one of the worst in baseball. That leaves Peter Lambert as today’s starter. Lambert spent last season pitching in Japan and will be making his first MLB start since 2024. Across four MLB seasons, he owns a 6.28 ERA, 5.01 xFIP, 1.61 WHIP, .298 opponent AVG, and a 16.4% kRate over 243.2 innings. Lambert has only pitched for the Rockies previously, so while a good portion of those numbers came at Coors Field, his road results weren’t much better (5.56 ERA, 4.99 xFIP, 1.62 WHIP, .292 AVG, 18.1% kRate). He’s been decent in a few minor league outings this year, but nothing that stands out.

He’ll be backed by an Astros bullpen that has struggled across the board, posting the worst WHIP in MLB (1.65) along with a 5.85 ERA (3rd-worst), 4.97 xFIP (3rd-worst), and 1.85 HR/9 rate (2nd-worst). That group has also thrown 234 pitches over the last three days, so they could be stretched thin. The Cardinals haven’t been dominant offensively, but they’ve shown improvement, posting a solid 109 wRC+ against RHPs over the last two weeks while keeping strikeouts in check (18.7% kRate). Jordan Walker has been swinging a hot bat, and they’ve gotten solid contributions from Alec Burleson and rookie JJ Wetherholt. Against a fringe MLB starter and a taxed bullpen, this is a spot where St. Louis could generate some offense.

Favorite STL Bats: Jordan Walker, Alec Burleson, JJ Wetherholt

Bargain Bat: Ivan Herrera

Athletics vs. Davis Martin (RHP), CWS

It was a slow start for the Athletics’ offense, but they’ve been productive of late, especially against right-handed pitching. Over the last two weeks versus RHPs, they’ve posted a .283 AVG (2nd), .797 OPS (2nd), .360 wOBA (2nd), and a 126 wRC+ (4th). The power hasn’t fully shown up yet, but we know there are several hitters in this lineup capable of leaving the yard. Sutter Health Park ranked as the No. 2 most hitter-friendly ballpark last season, and the A’s have averaged 5.43 runs per game at home compared to just 3.33 on the road.

Davis Martin owns a solid 2.50 ERA and 1.11 WHIP through three starts, but the underlying metrics suggest regression (5.08 xERA), and he’s allowed a massive 54.0% HardHit%, the second-highest mark among today’s starters. The White Sox bullpen doesn’t offer much relief either. It already ranks near the bottom of the league (5.69 ERA, 4.85 xFIP, 1.60 WHIP), and they used six relievers yesterday, each throwing at least 19 pitches. That likely leaves them short on fresh arms. Even if the A’s don’t get much going early, there’s clear late-inning upside against a taxed bullpen.

Favorite ATH Bats: Nick Kurtz, Shea Langeliers, Tyler Soderstrom

Bargain Bats: Carlos Cortes, Jacob Wilson, Jeff McNeil

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Minnesota Twins vs. Brandon Williamson (LHP), CIN

Every hitter in the confirmed Twins lineup comes in under 10% pOwn%. It’ll be chilly in Minneapolis this evening, but 15 mph winds blowing out to center/right should help offset some of the carry loss from the cold. The Twins also get a lefty matchup, and they’ve been productive in that split, posting a 124 wRC+ over the last two weeks, which ranks 4th in MLB.

Williamson had a strong outing against Miami but was roughed up in his other two starts against the Pirates and Angels. Overall, he owns a 5.28 ERA backed by an even worse 7.45 xERA and 5.89 xFIP. He’s generated just a 14.9% kRate, carries a slate-worst 93 Location+, and has allowed a high 48.9% fly-ball rate. The Reds bullpen has been excellent on the surface (MLB-best 2.57 ERA), but a 4.79 xFIP (7th-worst) suggests regression, and with four relievers used yesterday, availability could be a bit limited.

Favorite MIN Bats: Byron Buxton, Ryan Jeffers, Luke Keaschall

Bargain Bats: Austin Martin, Brooks Lee

No one-off or bargain bats lists today, but I’ll get those back online on Monday!

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