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No DFS video for this slate!

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

With only three games in the evening window, the bulk of Thursday’s action comes in the early slate beginning at 12:35 ET. This slate will feature six games on DraftKings and seven on FanDuel, with the inclusion of the TEX at ATH matchup. Due to the early slate, this newsletter is being written Wednesday night, so be sure to check for weather updates and confirmed lineups closer to lock. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣4/16 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts. Note: I’m not a meteorologist so don’t treat these forecast previews as gospel! It’s always best to run a pre-game weather check for any at-risk games.

Weather Key: 🟡 Chance for delay | 🟠 Elevated delay / PPD risk | 🔴 High PPD risk
🔵 Favorable for pitchers (cold/wind in) | 🟢 Favorable for hitters (warm/wind out)

• SF at CIN (12:40 ET, 8.5 O/U): Low-end chance of storms in the area, but not a major concern right now unless the forecast changes.

• KC at DET (1:10 ET, 8.0 O/U): Plenty of rain in the area, but conditions improve later in the afternoon. Could start on time if rain holds off, otherwise a delayed start is possible. Around 70 degrees with 10–15 mph winds IN from right.

• LAA at NYY (1:35 ET, 9.5 O/U): Around 85 degrees with 10 mph winds mostly OUT to left, with a slight crosswind. Strong hitting conditions at Yankee Stadium once again.

• TB at CWS (2:10 ET, 8.5 O/U): Around 70 degrees with 10–15 mph winds OUT to left. Solid hitting environment.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Kris Bubic (LHP), KC | DK: $9k, FD: $9.9k | at DET

Reminder: Monitor weather for this game.

Bubic has been excellent through three starts. Even after allowing four runs to a hot Brewers lineup, he still owns a 2.50 ERA across 18.0 innings to go along with a 3.23 xFIP, 0.83 WHIP, and a strong 33.8% kRate backed by a 15.4% SwStr%. The only real concerns are a slightly elevated walk rate (10.3%) and a high fly-ball rate (50%). He has historically been more of a groundball pitcher, and the 10–15 mph winds blowing in from right should help limit damage from flyballs to begin with.

The Tigers have had the fewest at-bats against LHPs (87), so we’re working with a small sample, even by early-season standards. However, in that split, they’ve posted a .194 AVG, .544 OPS, 70 wRC+, and a meager .028 ISO. They’ve been difficult to strike out (16.1% kRate) and have drawn walks at a high clip (13.8% BB%), but overall production has been limited. Assuming the weather cooperates, this sets up as another strong opportunity for Bubic to continue his early-season success.

Chase Burns (RHP), CIN | DK: $8.7k, FD: $10.2k | vs. SF

Burns is one of the more exciting young flamethrowers in the league and, even with just 59.2 MLB innings under his belt, the talent is obvious. He was knocked around by the Angels in his last start but delivered two excellent outings against the Pirates and Rangers prior. Across 16.1 innings this season, he owns a 3.31 ERA, 4.03 xFIP, 1.29 WHIP, 25.7% kRate, and a slate-best 16.3% SwStr%. His strikeout rate sat at a massive 35.6% last season alongside a 15.8% SwStr%, so there’s a strong case for positive regression in that department. The appeal here is clear – elite strikeout upside with the potential for more if he can limit damage.

He gets an interesting matchup against the Giants. While they haven’t been overly strikeout-prone versus righties (20.9%), the overall production has been lacking. Against RHPs, they rank 23rd in AVG (.227), 28th in OPS (.610), 29th in wOBA (.275), 27th in ISO (.111), and 28th in wRC+ (72). Their road splits are slightly better, but still underwhelming. There’s some volatility with Burns, but when he’s on, he arguably brings the highest ceiling of any arm on this slate.

Foster Griffin (LHP), WAS | DK: $6.8k, FD: $8k | at PIT

Griffin is one of the more intriguing options on this slate. He made his MLB debut back in 2020 but logged just eight total innings with the Royals and Blue Jays through 2022 before spending the last three seasons with the Yomiuri Giants in Japan, where he put together strong results. That success earned him a one-year, $5.5 million deal with the Nationals. So far in his return to the MLB, he’s posted a 1.76 ERA across three starts against the Phillies, Dodgers, and Brewers while holding hitters to a .196 AVG and going 2-0. The surface stats look great, but the underlying numbers are far less encouraging (5.09 xERA, 4.49 xFIP), and he’s benefited from a .214 opponent BABIP. The strikeout metrics are also modest (19.0% kRate, 8.4% SwStr%). Still, if he was able to navigate those three matchups against strong offenses, this is a softer landing spot.

Pittsburgh has been a strong offense against RHPs, but the production drops off against lefties. In that split, they rank 16th in AVG (.230), 18th in OPS (.655), 18th in wOBA (.299), and 18th in wRC+ (85), while striking out at a 23.4% clip (13th-highest). Regression is a real possibility here given Griffin’s profile, but at these price points, especially on DraftKings, he’s at least worth considering as a value option if he can keep things in check for another outing.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Max Fried (LHP), NYY | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10.8k | vs. LAA

Steven Matz (LHP), TB | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.6k | at CWS

Braxton Ashcraft (RHP), PIT | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.9k | vs. WAS

Keider Montero (RHP), DET | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.5k | vs. KC

FanDuel Main Slate Only

Jack Leiter (RHP), TEX | $9,100 | at ATH

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Tampa Bay Rays (RHBs Preferred) vs. Anthony Kay (LHP), CWS

Stacking Rays righties makes plenty of sense here. Anthony Kay owns a respectable 2.35 ERA and 1.16 WHIP across 14.2 innings, but the underlying metrics are far less encouraging. He carries a 7.25 xERA and has allowed a massive 55.8% HardHit%. The splits are also very clear – he’s handled lefties well, but right-handed hitters have tagged him for a .366 wOBA and .231 ISO, along with a 6.69 xFIP and 1.60 WHIP.

The Rays have six hitters in the projected lineup with at least a .359 wOBA against LHPs this season, four of them right-handed. Lefties shouldn’t be completely ignored, especially with potential exposure to a White Sox bullpen that ranks near the bottom of the league (5.49 ERA, 4.81 xFIP, 1.59 WHIP). Still, righties should get the priority here, particularly with 10–15 mph winds blowing out to left, which favors right-handed power.

Favorite TB Bats: Yandy Diaz, Junior Caminero, Chandler Simpson

Bargain Bats: Jonny DeLuca, Ben Williamson, Taylor Walls

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Brandon Sproat (RHP), MIL

At 7-10 through the first few weeks, it’s been a slow start for the defending AL champions. Injuries have thinned out the lineup, and the offense has been fairly average overall, reflected by a 102 wRC+ against RHPs. That said, this sets up as a strong opportunity to get things going. Brandon Sproat is a highly regarded prospect, ranking as Milwaukee’s top pitching prospect and No. 90 overall in baseball, but he has struggled mightily in limited MLB action. Across 10.1 innings this season, he’s posted a 10.45 ERA, 8.05 xERA, 2.32 WHIP, .350 opponent AVG, .511 wOBA, and .356 ISO. He’s also allowed four home runs (3.48 HR/9), a 50.0% HardHit%, and his 20.0% walk rate is identical to his strikeout rate. Ugly stuff, to state the obvious.

Sproat will be backed by a Brewers bullpen that ranks in the bottom half of the league in ERA, opponent AVG, WHIP, and K-BB%. They also used five relievers on Wednesday, so availability could be limited. If Sproat’s early struggles continue, Toronto is in a position to take advantage.

Favorite TOR Bats: Vlad Guerrero Jr., Daulton Varsho, Jesus Sanchez

Bargain Bats: Andres Gimenez, Ernie Clement, Eloy Jimenez

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Los Angeles Angels vs. Max Fried (LHP), NYY

There are no ownership projections available at the time of writing, but it’s safe to assume most won’t be looking to stack hitters against Max Fried. That said, the Angels have been a legitimate top-five offense versus LHPs, and even with Jorge Soler serving a suspension, there are several intriguing leverage options here. As a team against lefties, the Angels rank 4th in OPS (.784), 3rd in wOBA (.355), 4th in ISO (.168), and 4th in wRC+ (127).

There isn’t much to nitpick with Fried, but the strikeouts have been down to start the season (19.0% kRate, 8.6% SwStr% across 28.0 IP). That’s notable given the Angels’ tendency to strike out against LHPs (25.9% kRate). If Fried’s swing-and-miss stays limited, it opens the door for more contact. He’s also leaned heavily on his fastball mix (sinker, four-seam, cutter), which has made up 62.4% of his pitches. Against LHP fastballs, the Angels have posted a .303 AVG (5th), .422 wOBA (2nd), .211 ISO (4th), and a 50.0% HardHit% (2nd). Fried will be backed by a Yankees bullpen that has been solid but not dominant, and with temperatures around 85 degrees and 10 mph winds blowing out to left, the hitting conditions are favorable.

Favorite LAA Bats: Mike Trout, Jo Adell, Zach Neto

Bargain Bat: Oswald Peraza

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge, NYY vs. TBD, LAA

OF Oneil Cruz, PIT vs. Foster Griffin (LHP), WAS

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC vs. Keider Montero (RHP), DET

OF Mike Trout, LAA vs. Max Fried (LHP), NYY

SS CJ Abrams, WAS vs. Braxton Ashcraft (RHP), PIT

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR vs. Brandon Sproat (RHP), MIL

C William Contreras, MIL vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), TOR

1B/3B Yandy Diaz, TB vs. Anthony Kay (LHP), CWS

1B Sal Stewart, CIN vs. Landen Roupp (RHP), SF

3B/SS Kevin McGonigle, DET vs. Kris Bubic (LHP), KC

SS Willy Adames, SF vs. Chase Burns (RHP), CIN

FanDuel Main Slate Only

SS Corey Seager, TEX vs. Jacob Lopez (LHP), ATH

1B Nick Kurtz, ATH vs. Jack Leiter (RHP), TEX

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

To qualify as a bargain bat, hitters must be ≤ $4,000 on DraftKings.

OF Daulton Varsho, TOR vs. Brandon Sproat (RHP), MIL

1B/C Gary Sanchez, MIL vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), TOR

2B Jazz Chisholm Jr., NYY vs. TBD, LAA

OF Trent Grisham, NYY vs. TBD, LAA

OF Jesus Sanchez, TOR vs. Brandon Sproat (RHP), MIL

SS Andres Gimenez, TOR vs. Brandon Sproat (RHP), MIL

OF Jonny DeLuca, TB vs. Anthony Kay (LHP), CWS

OF TJ Friedl, CIN vs. Landen Roupp (RHP), SF

SS Konnor Griffin, PIT vs. Foster Griffin (LHP), WAS

C Daniel Susac, SF vs. Chase Burns (RHP), CIN

SS Jose Caballero, NYY vs. TBD, LAA

SS Taylor Walls, TB vs. Anthony Kay (LHP), CWS

2B/SS Ben Williamson, TB vs. Anthony Kay (LHP), CWS

2B Michael Massey, KC vs. Keider Montero (RHP), DET

OF Eloy Jimenez, TOR vs. Brandon Sproat (RHP), MIL

FanDuel Main Slate Only

1B Jake Burger, TEX vs. Jacob Lopez (LHP), ATH

OF Carlos Cortes, ATH vs. Jack Leiter (RHP), TEX

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter/X. Repost the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet for your chance to win prizes!

No HR Calls contest for this slate!

🔥📊 Props AI 📊🔥