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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

A busy MLB Monday is on deck with nine games on the DraftKings main slate and six on FanDuel, with DraftKings including the three early games in the 6 ET window. Pitching is decent on this slate, although it wouldn’t be surprising if things lean toward the offensive side, especially with temperatures starting to warm up at a lot of ballparks. Let’s dive in and see what we can figure out. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣4/13 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts. Note: I’m not a meteorologist so don’t treat these forecast previews as gospel! It’s always best to run a pre-game weather check for any at-risk games.

Weather Key: 🟡 Chance for delay | 🟠 Elevated delay / PPD risk | 🔴 High PPD risk
🔵 Favorable for pitchers (cold/wind in) | 🟢 Favorable for hitters (warm/wind out)

• ARI at BAL (6:35 ET, 8.5 O/U): DK slate only. 80 degrees with 10 mph winds OUT to right.

• WAS at PIT (6:40 ET, 7.5 O/U): DK slate only. Low-to-moderate risk of storms moving through the area, so a delay is possible. Mid-70s with 10–15 mph winds OUT to left.

• CHC at PHI (6:40 ET, 8.0 O/U): DK slate only. Warm with 10–15 mph winds OUT to right/center.

• LAA at NYY (7:05 ET, 9.5 O/U): Slight delay risk but probably a late start at worst. Mid-70s with 10 mph winds OUT to left.

• MIA at ATL (7:15 ET, 8.0 O/U): 80 degrees at first pitch with light winds IN from center/right.

• BOS at MIN (7:40 ET, 7.0 O/U): This is the main trouble spot today. Some nasty storms will be moving through tonight. They could hold south of the ballpark or completely drench this game. If there isn’t an early PPD announcement, check radar closer to first pitch to see how this should play out.

• CLE at STL (7:45 ET, 8.0 O/U): 75–80 degrees with 15 mph winds OUT to left.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Gavin Williams (RHP), CLE | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9k | at STL

If not for a hefty walk rate (20.9% BB%), there would be very little to complain about with Gavin Williams’ start to the season. Across three outings, he owns a 2.04 ERA, 3.48 xFIP, 1.08 WHIP, and a massive 37.3% kRate. He’s also allowed just five hits over 17.2 innings, so if you remove the 14 walks, he’d be sitting on a ridiculous 0.28 WHIP. In his defense, the three teams he has faced (KC, LAD, SEA) all rank in the top half of MLB in BB% versus RHPs.

He’ll now face a Cardinals lineup that sits 10th in BB% (10.8%) against righties but has otherwise struggled, ranking 24th or worse in AVG, OPS, wOBA, ISO, and wRC+. The weather in St. Louis should favor hitters, but Williams has done a solid job keeping the ball on the ground. If he can simply tighten up the control even a bit, he’s in a strong position to deliver another quality outing.

Grant Holmes (RHP), ATL | DK: $8k, FD: $8.9k | vs. MIA

I’d prefer Holmes to be a bit cheaper, but in the context of this slate, he makes for a reasonable mid-range SP option. Through three starts (17.2 IP), he owns a 2.55 ERA, 3.21 xERA, 1.08 WHIP, and a 19.7% kRate. Nothing that jumps off the page, but his 12.7% SwStr% suggests some positive regression could be on the way in the strikeout department.

Holmes has leaned heavily on his four-seamer and slider, throwing that combination roughly 80% of the time. The Marlins have posted an excellent .419 wOBA against that pitch mix, but they’ve also benefited from an MLB-best .363 BABIP, which is unlikely to hold. Some regression already appears to be setting in, as Miami managed just three total runs in a recent three-game set against Detroit. They’re being assigned a 3.7 implied run total against Holmes today, one of the lowest marks on the slate.

Will Warren (RHP), NYY | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.4k | vs. LAA

It’s nothing flashy, but Warren has gotten off to a solid start (3.07 ERA, 3.46 xFIP, 1.30 WHIP, 22.2% kRate, 54.5% GB%). The underlying stuff looks even better, as he leads all starters on this slate with a 115 Pitching+ rating. Pitching+ (FanGraphs) evaluates pitch quality based on factors like velocity, movement, and location, with 100 set as league average, so Warren’s mark suggests his arsenal has been well above average and could support continued success.

The Angels have had some offensive outbursts, but they’ve been a fairly mediocre lineup overall, ranking 22nd with a 95 wRC+ against RHPs to go along with a 25.9% kRate (6th-highest). They’ve also struggled against Warren’s primary pitch mix, hitting just .196 (2nd-lowest) with a 25.9% Whiff% (3rd-highest) against four-seamers, sinkers, and sweepers. The Yankees (-194 ML) are among the heaviest favorites on the slate, so if Warren can get through five or six innings, he’s in a good spot to return value with the win bonus in play.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Garrett Crochet (LHP), BOS | DK: $10.3k, FD: $10.3k | at MIN (Monitor weather)

Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), LAA | DK: $6k, FD: $6.9k | at NYY

DraftKings Main Slate Only

Cristopher Sanchez (LHP), PHI | DK: $9.8k, FD: N/A | vs. CHC

Paul Skenes (RHP), PIT | DK: $9.5k, FD: N/A | vs. WAS (Monitor weather)

Dean Kremer (RHP), BAL | DK: $6.5k, FD: N/A | vs. ARI

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. David Peterson (LHP), NYM

The Dodgers are tough to ignore on any slate, and this is no exception. They rank either first or second in AVG, OPS, wOBA, ISO, and wRC+ against LHPs. David Peterson has allowed plenty of traffic to start the season, posting a slate-worst 1.84 WHIP, and his 91 Pitching+ rating is among the lowest marks for today’s starters.

The Mets bullpen has been solid, but this Dodgers lineup is a difficult matchup for any pitching staff to navigate. Outside of Ohtani, much of this lineup is coming in with relatively modest projected ownership, which always adds some extra intrigue to a Dodgers stack.

Favorite LAD Bats: Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Andy Pages
Bargain Bat: Max Muncy

Atlanta Braves vs. Eury Perez (RHP), MIA

The Braves have been crushing right-handed pitching this season, and that’s with guys like Ronald Acuña Jr. and Austin Riley only recently starting to heat up. Across a 405 PA sample against RHPs, Atlanta ranks top-three in AVG, OPS, wOBA, ISO, and wRC+ while also posting the fifth-lowest strikeout rate. They’ve been squaring it up plenty as well, ranking 2nd in HR/FB rate (15.7%) and 3rd in Barrel% (10.5%).

Perez brings strong swing-and-miss ability (14.7% SwStr%), but control has been a concern, as reflected by a slate-worst 88 Location+ rating. He’s also allowed four home runs (2.25 HR/9) with a 19.0% HR/FB rate, which is dangerous against a lineup with this much pop. The Marlins bullpen owns a strong 2.81 ERA, but a 4.13 xFIP suggests some regression is likely. This sets up as another strong spot for Atlanta’s bats.

Favorite ATL Bats: Ronald Acuña Jr., Drake Baldwin, Matt Olson
Bargain Bats: Austin Riley, Dominic Smith, Mauricio Dubon

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Athletics vs. Nathan Eovaldi (RHP), TEX

Every hitter in the projected A’s lineup comes in under 8% pOwn%. The A’s return to Sacramento for just their second home series of the season, and the offense showed real upside in its first homestand against Houston with 12- and 11-run performances. Sutter Health Park, a repurposed minor league venue, graded out as the No. 2 most hitter-friendly environment last season (behind only Coors Field) and currently leads MLB with a 125 Park Factor. This lineup has been feast-or-famine, but the upside is clearly elevated in this setting.

Eovaldi is a quality arm, but he’s off to a shaky start with a 7.98 ERA, 1.84 WHIP, and a 92.2 mph average exit velocity allowed (bottom 10th percentile). The strikeout metrics remain strong (16.9% SwStr%, 26.8% kRate), and a 3.12 xFIP points to some poor luck thus far, but the contact profile is still concerning with a 48.9% HardHit%. Even with Brent Rooker on the IL, this lineup has enough power up top to do damage. The Rangers’ bullpen is also another regression candidate, carrying a 2.35 ERA (3rd-best) but a 4.43 xFIP (11th-worst), which keeps the door open for production throughout the game.

Favorite ATH Bats: Shea Langeliers, Tyler Soderstrom, Nick Kurtz
Bargain Bats: Max Muncy, Carlos Cortes, Jeff McNeil

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.4k | vs. David Peterson (LHP), NYM

OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), LAA

OF Ronald Acuña Jr., ATL | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Eury Perez (RHP), MIA

3B Jose Ramirez, CLE | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Matthew Liberatore (LHP), STL

OF Luis Robert Jr., NYM | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Justin Wrobleski (RHP), LAD

SS Zach Neto, LAA | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Will Warren (RHP), NYY

2B Xavier Edwards, MIA | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Grant Holmes (RHP), ATL

SS Corey Seager, TEX | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Luis Severino (RHP), ATH

OF Tyler Soderstrom, ATH | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3k | vs. Nathan Eovaldi (RHP), TEX

1B Willson Contreras, BOS | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3k | vs. Bailey Ober (RHP), MIN

DraftKings Main Slate Only

OF Corbin Carroll, ARI | $5,800 | vs. Dean Kremer (RHP), BAL

OF Oneil Cruz, PIT | $5,700 | vs. Cade Cavalli (RHP), WAS

SS Gunnar Henderson, BAL | $5,600 | vs. Ryne Nelson (RHP), ARI

OF James Wood, WAS | $5,300 | vs. Paul Skenes (RHP), PIT

1B Bryce Harper, PHI | $5,100 | vs. Javier Assad (RHP), CHC

2B Nico Hoerner, CHC | $4,500 | vs. Cristopher Sanchez (LHP), PHI

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

3B Max Muncy, LAD | DK: $4k, FD: $3k | vs. David Peterson (LHP), NYM

OF Wyatt Langford, TEX | DK: $4k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Luis Severino (RHP), ATH

OF Evan Carter, TEX | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Luis Severino (RHP), ATH

2B Ozzie Albies, ATL | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Eury Perez (RHP), MIA

3B Max Muncy, ATH | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Nathan Eovaldi (RHP), TEX

3B Austin Riley, ATL | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Eury Perez (RHP), MIA

C Ryan Jeffers, MIN | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Garrett Crochet (LHP), BOS

1B Paul Goldschmidt, NYY | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), LAA

1B Dominic Smith, ATL | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3k | vs. Eury Perez (RHP), MIA

OF/SS Mauricio Dubon, ATL | DK: $3.3k, FD: $3k | vs. Eury Perez (RHP), MIA

OF Michael Harris II, ATL | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Eury Perez (RHP), MIA

OF Carlos Cortes, ATH | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Nathan Eovaldi (RHP), TEX

OF Ceddanne Rafaela, BOS | DK: $3k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Bailey Ober (RHP), MIN

DraftKings Main Slate Only

OF Brandon Marsh, PHI | $3,600 | vs. Javier Assad (RHP), CHC

1B/3B Jose Fernandez, ARI | $3,200 | vs. Dean Kremer (RHP), BAL

C Adrian Del Castillo, ARI | $2,900 | vs. Dean Kremer (RHP), BAL

3B/OF Nick Yorke, PIT | $2,300 | vs. Cade Cavalli (RHP), WAS

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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