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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

We’ve got a busy 11-game slate on tap tonight. The pitching pool may not be elite overall, but with 22 starters to choose from, there are still plenty of viable options to sort through. On the flip side, several offenses stand out in strong spots against some shakier arms. Weather looks cooperative across the board, so we shouldn’t have any major concerns there. Plenty to get to, so let’s dive in. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣4/10 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts. Note: I’m not a meteorologist so don’t treat these forecast previews as gospel! It’s always best to run a pre-game weather check for any at-risk games.

Weather Key: 🟡 Chance for delay | 🟠 Elevated delay / PPD risk | 🔴 High PPD risk
🔵 Favorable for pitchers (cold/wind in) | 🟢 Favorable for hitters (warm/wind out)

• ATH at NYM (7:10 ET, 8.0 O/U): Around 50 degrees with 10 mph winds OUT to left. Citi Field still plays pitcher-friendly, and cooler temps should limit carry a bit.

• SF at BAL (7:15 ET, 8.5 O/U): Mid-60s with light winds OUT to left. Neutral to slightly hitter-friendly.

• CWS at KC (7:40 ET, 7.5 O/U): Some rain in the area, but nothing overly concerning at the moment. Temps in the 50s with 5–10 mph winds IN from center. Favorable conditions for pitchers.

• BOS at STL (8:15 ET, 7.5 O/U): Storms expected to stay south of the ballpark. Cooler temps in the 60s with 5–10 mph winds IN from left. Slight lean toward pitchers.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Tyler Glasnow (RHP), LAD | DK: $9.8k, FD: $10.5k | vs. TEX

Glasnow brings excellent strikeout upside alongside strong win equity. He’s opened the season with back-to-back six-inning outings, allowing two runs in each start while posting 18.5 and 27.9 DKFP. The strikeouts have trended up as well, jumping from six in his debut to nine in his most recent outing. Despite an uncharacteristically low 9.4% SwStr%, Glasnow has still racked up a 31.9% kRate, which suggests even more upside if that swinging strike rate climbs back toward his 13.1% career mark.

The matchup is solid. Texas has been a middle-of-the-pack offense against RHPs with a 104 wRC+, .692 OPS, and a 21.4% kRate. The Dodgers (-226 ML) are the heaviest favorites on the board and should provide plenty of run support. On a slate without many true high-end options, he profiles as one of the safest arms with clear strikeout upside and a strong path to the win bonus.

Kris Bubic (LHP), KC | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.8k | vs. CWS

Despite a lackluster 4.09 ERA, 4.20 xFIP, and 53.8% fly-ball rate through two starts, Bubic has still produced a pair of solid DFS outings. He’s allowed just six hits (.158 opp AVG), but two of those have left the yard, and walks have also been an issue (13.6% BB%). If he can settle in a bit, there’s some real upside here. Bubic hasn’t historically been a high-end strikeout arm (22.0% career kRate), but he currently leads this slate with a 14.6% SwStr%, which has translated to a strong 27.3% kRate.

The White Sox have been productive against lefties early on, ranking 9th in MLB with a 110 wRC+, but that comes in a small 94 PA sample. They’ve also posted one of the highest strikeout rates in the league (30.9%), which plays directly into Bubic’s current form. Conditions should lean toward favoring pitchers as well, with temps in the 50s and 5–10 mph winds blowing in from center. If he can limit hard contact while maintaining the swing-and-miss, Bubic has a strong chance to return value at these price points.

Steven Matz (LHP), TB | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.4k | vs. NYY

Matz profiles as a riskier GPP option, but there’s enough upside here to keep him in play on a slate lacking depth at pitcher. His first start against St. Louis was shaky, allowing four runs over five innings, but he bounced back with a much sharper outing against Minnesota, striking out eight across six innings while giving up just one run. Through two starts, he’s posted a clean 1.00 WHIP and has shown the ability to generate swings and misses when he’s on.

The matchup is what makes this intriguing. The Yankees are a dangerous lineup, but they’ve struggled badly against left-handed pitching to begin the season. Across a 93 PA sample, they’ve posted a .122 AVG, .422 OPS, .205 wOBA, and a 31 wRC+ with a 24.7% kRate. There’s still plenty of power risk, but if Matz can limit damage and build off his last start, he has a path to return value at these price points in tournaments.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Tatsuya Imai (RHP), HOU | DK: $8.7k, FD: $7.7k | at SEA

Bryce Elder (RHP), ATL | DK: $8k, FD: $8.6k | vs. CLE

Landen Roupp (RHP), SF | DK: $7.8k, FD: $9.2k | at BAL

Luis Gil (RHP), NYY | DK: $7.5k, FD: $7.4k | at TB

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Jake Irvin (RHP), WAS

The Brewers have jumped out to a strong start against RHPs, ranking top-four in AVG, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+. They set up well here against Jake Irvin, who has shown some concerning underlying metrics. Through two starts, Irvin has allowed a 57.1% HardHit% along with a slate-worst 17.9% Barrel%. He’s also given up a 93.0 mph average exit velocity, which ranks in the bottom 5th percentile among MLB pitchers. Irvin has posted worse splits against LHBs, and the Brewers will be rolling out six lefties in the lineup today. Milwaukee has also hit Irvin well. In 86 PAs against him, this roster has posted a .351 AVG, .451 wOBA, and a low 12.8% kRate.

The matchup remains favorable once Irvin exits. Washington’s bullpen has struggled badly, posting a 6.34 ERA, 5.44 xFIP, 1.68 WHIP, 15.8% kRate, and a 2.44 HR/9 rate, all among the worst marks in the league. This is a spot where Milwaukee has a clear path to sustained offensive production.

Favorite MIL Bats: Christian Yelich, Garrett Mitchell, Gary Sanchez

Bargain Bats: David Hamilton, Jake Bauers

Boston Red Sox vs. Dustin May (RHP), STL

Boston hasn’t gotten much going at the plate to start the season, but this sets up as a strong spot for them to get on track. Dustin May has struggled through his first two outings with St. Louis, allowing 13 runs on 17 hits across just 9.1 innings. The contact quality has been a major issue, as he’s given up a 55.2% HardHit%. Left-handed bats, in particular, have had success against him in the early sample, which lines up well for this Boston lineup that possesses solid lefty power.

The matchup improves further when factoring in the bullpen behind him. St. Louis has graded out as a bottom-10 unit across most key pitching metrics, so Boston should have opportunities even after May exits. This is still a lineup searching for consistency, but the combination of a struggling starter and a weak bullpen puts them in a position to break out here.

Favorite BOS Bats: Wilyer Abreu, Jarren Duran, Willson Contreras

Bargain Bats: Masataka Yoshida, Caleb Durbin

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Atlanta Braves vs. Slade Cecconi (RHP), CLE

This is maybe not a super low-owned stack, but 7-of-9 hitters in the confirmed Braves lineup are coming in at 8% pOwn% or lower. Against RHPs, Atlanta ranks top-five in OPS, ISO, wOBA, and HardContact%, and that’s with a couple of their top bats (Acuña, Riley) off to slow starts. Cecconi is a capable arm but has shown some inconsistency through two starts, and he’s benefitted from a .231 BABIP that may not hold. Truist Park sets up as one of the better hitting environments on the slate, and this lineup has the underlying metrics to take advantage here.

Favorite ATL Bats: Drake Baldwin, Matt Olson, Ronald Acuña Jr.

Bargain Bats: Michael Harris II, Mauricio Dubon

Note: I’ll reintroduce the “one-off hitters” and “bargain bats” sections starting on Monday.

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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