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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

The first Monday slate of the season is here, and it’s a big one. All 30 teams will be in action at some point today, with 20 of them landing on this evening’s 10-game main slate. Every team now has a few games under its belt, and while the sample sizes are still small in the context of a 162-game season, we’re starting to gather some early data points that can help shape our DFS approach.

The new season is already off to an exciting start with plenty of dramatic games and storylines, and if opening weekend was any indication, we should be in for a wild ride. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣3/30 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• ATH at ATL (7:15 ET, 9.0 O/U): 70 degrees with light winds IN from center.

• LAA at CHC (7:40 ET, 10.0 O/U): Low-70s with 10-15 mph winds OUT to left. Any notable wind blowing out is always a positive for hitters at Wrigley Field.

• NYM at STL (7:45 ET, 8.5 O/U): Mid-70s temps with 10-15 mph winds OUT to left.

• DET at ARI (10:10 ET, 9.0 O/U): Chase Field’s roof will be open this evening. Gametime temps in Phoenix will be in the mid-80s.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Cody Ponce (RHP), TOR | DK: $7.6k, FD: $9.2k | vs. COL

With every team now three to four games into the season, we’ll naturally see mostly fourth and fifth starters take the mound today. That will push us toward saving salary at pitcher so that we can spend up on high-ceiling stacks. With that in mind, we’ll start things off with Cody Ponce. His last stint in the majors came back in 2021, and he’s since spent the past four seasons pitching overseas in South Korea and Japan. We’ve seen plenty of MLB pitchers take that path and return with success, and Ponce was especially dominant in the KBO last year, posting a 1.89 ERA, 2.30 xFIP, 0.94 WHIP, and a 36.2% kRate while going 17–1 across 29 starts (180.2 IP). He set multiple KBO strikeout records, earned the league’s top pitching award by a unanimous vote, and was named MVP. He also impressed this spring (13.2 IP) with a 0.66 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, .152 opponent AVG, and a 24.0% kRate. The competition will obviously be much tougher back at the MLB level, and those KBO strikeout numbers won’t fully carry over, but this is a strong spot for his return with a favorable home matchup.

The road Rockies once again project as one of the weakest offenses in the league. Miami isn’t expected to be a strong team this season, yet they just swept Colorado over the weekend. Through 99 plate appearances against RHPs so far, the Rockies have managed just a .194 AVG, .542 OPS, 44 wRC+, and a 26.3% kRate. Even with Ponce largely unproven at the MLB level (5.86 ERA over 55.1 IP), the Blue Jays (-293 ML) are easily the heaviest favorites on the slate. He’ll be backed by a strong offense, and if he can work through five or six innings, he should be in a good position to pick up the win bonus.

Michael Soroka (RHP), ARI | DK: $7.5k, FD: $7.1k | vs. DET

Since his standout 2019 season (174.2 IP, 2.68 ERA, 1.11 WHIP), Soroka has battled multiple significant Achilles injuries, but he’ll look to put together a full, healthy campaign in 2026. He showed some promise early last season with Washington, posting a 3.88 xFIP, 1.03 WHIP, and a 26.3% kRate across his first 11 starts. Soroka was later traded to the Cubs, where he shifted into a limited bullpen role, but now gets another opportunity to stick in a rotation with Arizona after signing a one-year deal this offseason. His spring numbers weren’t great (7.50 ERA, 5.15 xFIP, 2.00 WHIP across 12.0 IP), but he did post a solid 27.9% kRate, and some of the struggles could be attributed to mechanical adjustments and ramp-up.

He draws a Tigers lineup that has been slow out of the gates. Through 97 plate appearances against RHPs, Detroit has posted a .200 AVG, .615 OPS, .075 ISO, 88 wRC+, and a 28.9% kRate. Like most arms on this slate, Soroka isn’t a “safe” option, but there’s some upside if he can carry over the strikeout gains from the spring while limiting baserunners.

Ryan Weathers (LHP), NYY | DK: $6.3k, FD: $8k | at SEA

Weathers will round out the value tier at pitcher for this slate. Is he “safe”? No. But there is some upside at these price points, especially at $6,300 on DraftKings. He made just eight starts for the Marlins last season, logging 38.1 innings with a 3.99 ERA, 4.03 xFIP, 1.28 WHIP, and a 22.3% kRate – unspectacular but solid numbers. He also ranked in the 86th percentile in fastball velocity (96.8 mph), and his 13.2% SwStr% (from 2025) actually leads all pitchers on this slate. Like many arms today, his spring results weren’t pretty (8.83 ERA, 1.79 WHIP, .346 opponent AVG across 17.1 IP), but the underlying numbers were much better, including a 3.45 xFIP and a strong 25.0% kRate. He also built up to 80 pitches in his final spring outing, allowing just one run over five innings, so he should be in line for a reasonable workload.

Weathers draws a Mariners lineup that could have some issues against left-handed pitching. It’s a very small sample (30 PAs), but they’ve struck out at a 30% clip with a subpar .647 OPS against LHPs so far. This game being played at T-Mobile Park also helps, as it ranked as the No. 2 most pitcher-friendly ballpark last season. Not surprisingly, this contest carries the lowest total on the slate (7.5), and Seattle checks in with one of the lower implied team totals at 3.7 runs. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Weathers push toward the 20 DKFP/35 FDFP range if things break right.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Edward Cabrera (RHP), CHC | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.5k | vs. LAA

Clay Holmes (RHP), NYM | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9.3k | at STL

Bryce Elder (RHP), ATL | DK: $6.5k, FD: $8.6k | vs. ATH

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Boston Red Sox vs. Lance McCullers Jr. (RHP), HOU

McCullers missed most of 2022 and all of the 2023–2024 seasons due to forearm/elbow injuries. He returned to action in ’25 and, while he flashed a couple of quality outings, it was mostly a rough go. Across 55.1 innings, he posted a 6.51 ERA, 5.12 xFIP, 1.81 WHIP, and a 1.63 HR/9 while allowing a massive 49.7% HardHit%. He’s entering the final year of his deal, so Houston will continue to give him opportunities, but the underlying numbers don’t inspire much confidence. His spring results (3.38 ERA in 8.0 IP) look decent on the surface, though they were backed by a 6.15 xFIP and a low 15.6% kRate. The Astros’ bullpen was also heavily taxed over the weekend, logging a league-high 14.0 innings and 270 pitches over the last three days, which could limit their flexibility if McCullers struggles early.

Boston’s lineup has looked sharp out of the gate, posting a .799 OPS, .358 wOBA, .192 ISO, and a 122 wRC+ against RHPs through their first four games (87 PAs). There’s power throughout the lineup, and outside of Roman Anthony and Jarren Duran, most of these bats remain fairly affordable, making this an appealing stack in all formats.

Favorite BOS Bats: Roman Anthony, Wilyer Abreu, Trevor Story

Bargain Bats: Willson Contreras, Ceddanne Rafaela, Caleb Durbin

Chicago Cubs vs. Ryan Johnson (RHP), LAA

Anytime you get warm temps and solid winds – in this case, 10–15 mph – blowing out at Wrigley Field (arguably the most wind-sensitive park in MLB), it’s tough to ignore the bats. We’ll focus on the Cubs side here as they draw a favorable matchup. Ryan Johnson spent most of last season at the High-A level and logged just 14.2 innings in the majors, all out of the bullpen, so this will be his first official start. In that limited MLB sample, he allowed four home runs (2.45 HR/9) while posting a 1.98 WHIP, .358 opponent AVG, and a 7.36 ERA. He did pitch well this spring (3.05 ERA, 3.93 xFIP, 1.16 WHIP, 26.1% kRate across 20.2 IP), but making your first career start on the road against a full MLB lineup in hitter-friendly conditions is a tall task that is vastly different from a spring training environment.

The Cubs have already shown some upside early, including a 10-run game against Washington on Saturday. Six projected hitters in today’s lineup posted at least a .170 ISO against RHPs last season, giving this lineup plenty of power throughout. Chicago leads the slate with a 5.4 implied total – a half-run higher than the next closest team – and they don’t project to be overly popular, with only Michael Busch and Alex Bregman currently sitting above 10% ownership. That combination of upside and modest ownership makes them one of the more appealing stacks on the board.

Favorite CHC Bats: Michael Busch, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Ian Happ

Bargain Bat: Moisés Ballesteros

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Nick Martinez (RHP), TB

The Brewers have been the hottest offense in baseball through the first few days of the season, posting a .337 AVG, .972 OPS, .434 wOBA, and 181 wRC+ across their first three games. So it’s a bit surprising to see every hitter in the projected lineup checking in under 10% pOwn%. They’re obviously not going to sustain numbers like this long-term, but there’s a good chance they keep things rolling for at least another game.

Martinez is a capable MLB starter, but he doesn’t miss many bats, posting just a 17.0% kRate and 8.5% SwStr% in ’25 with a modest 92.6 mph fastball. He also struggled badly this spring, logging a 14.49 ERA, 6.82 xFIP, 2.56 WHIP, .426 opponent AVG, 3.29 HR/9, and a 9.5% kRate across 13.2 innings. Some of that can be attributed to spring rust or mechanical tweaks, but not to this degree. Milwaukee’s ownership could climb as the day goes on, but for now, they stand out as a very appealing stack if they remain under the radar.

Favorite MIL Bats: Christian Yelich, Brice Turang, Jake Bauers

Bargain Bats: David Hamilton, Brandon Lockridge

Note: Once we get a week or two into the season, I’ll reintroduce the “one-off hitters” and “bargain bats” sections.

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