Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 9/9 | Staying On the MLB Grind!

September 09, 2022

Football is back but the real ones know that this is a great time to continue cashing in on the MLB action!

Penned By: Ryan Humphries, @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

All of a sudden, baseball is no longer the popular kid in class now that football is fully back in swing. But we’ve still got the final month of the MLB season to grind out along with some October playoff action so we’ll be here ‘til the end! If you’re tapping out of MLB to put your focus fully on NFL DFS, I thank you for sticking around! For everyone else, let’s get into today’s 12-game main slate, shall we?

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

CLE @ MIN (8:10 ET, 7.5 O/U): A line of rainstorms approach MIN around first pitch and could pose a legitimate threat if the ugly stuff hangs over the ballpark for too long. We’ll need to see how things are looking closer to first pitch, but, for now, just be wary of potential issues in this game.

ARI @ COL (8:40 ET, 10 O/U): Winds blowing IN from right at 10 mph and somewhat cooler temperatures in the 60s for much of the game. It’s still Coors Field, but not necessarily the best hitting conditions beyond the default altitude boost.

LAD @ SD (9:40 ET, 8.5 O/U): We’re not used to seeing any weather concerns out on these west coast games but some rainfall from Tropical Storm Kay will be hitting the SD area all day. If this same sort of precipitation was occurring at some other ballparks, perhaps they would decide to just play a wet game. But since the Padres and their fans are not used to this sort of weather, it would not be a surprise whatsoever to see this game get hit with an early PPD. For now, it feels like a game to fully avoid.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Lance McCullers Jr. (RHP), HOU | DK: $9k, FD: $8.8k | vs. LAA

Despite the large slate, the pitching options leave a lot to be desired. But we’ll start with McCullers, who will be making his fifth start of the season. He’s been ‘decent’ up to this point, posting a 2.08 ERA across his 21.2 IP. However, he is walking a lot of batters (14.9% BB%) which has led to a pretty ugly 1.52 WHIP. His 4.43 xFIP and 4.99 SIERA also tell us that he has been pretty fortunate to pitch to his low ERA. He’ll also be pitching against the same opponent for the second time in a week. With that said, McCullers is a high-caliber pitcher when he’s locked in. The Angels also rank 25th with their 81 wRC+ vs. RHPs over the last month and they have a 26.7% kRate in that same span. Expectations should not be incredibly high, but McCullers should be able to deliver a solid performance today, especially if he cuts down on the free passes to first base. The Astros are the heaviest favorites on the slate with -230 ML odds.

Nick Lodolo (LHP), CIN | DK: $8.6k, FD: $9.7k | @ MIL

Lodolo has shown some quality strikeout upside in many of his outings this season, and his overall 28.3% kRate ranks him second among today’s starters. The match-up is also sneaky good given how much the Brewers have struggled against LHPs over the last month: .196 AVG (ranks 29th), .281 wOBA (27th), 78 wRC+ (27th), and a 29.4% kRate (highest in MLB). Lodolo has legitimate 30 DKFP/50 FDFP upside given the right match-up… and this could be one of those match-ups.

Lucas Giolito (RHP), CWS | DK: $8.5k, FD: $8.2k | @ OAK

It’s been a down year for Giolito, but he has pitched noticeably better in away games (averages +30% more FP points) and he’ll draw a favorable Oakland A’s opponent. The A’s have not been complete pushovers on offense but they do still rank 22nd in the MLB with an 89 wRC+ vs. RHPs in the last two weeks to go along with a lofty 27.1% kRate. Giolito seems incapable of pitching a clean game this year so he will probably give up a few hits and maybe two or three runs, but hopefully, he can take his above-average strikeout potential (25.3% kRate) and rack up seven or eight Ks in this game to counterbalance the A’s offensive production. On a slate where the overall pitching is just ugly, I’d say we would happily take a 20 DKFP/35 FDFP kind of performance, which Gio is capable of delivering tonight.

Also Consider:

Robbie Ray (LHP), SEA | DK: $10.5k, FD: $10.3k | vs. ATL

Charlie Morton (RHP), ATL | DK: $10.2k, FD: $9.3k | @ SEA

Ross Stripling (RHP), TOR | DK: $8.2k, FD: $8.7k | @ TEX

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Zach Davies (RHP), ARI

Non-Coors Stacks to Consider

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

Corbin is coming off of back-to-back winning performances against the Reds and Mets but has he actually turned a corner this late in the season or were those two outings imply outliers? He’s been one of the worst starters in baseball all year as evidenced by his 6.28 ERA, 1.70 WHIP, and 1.67 HR/9 Rate. The Phillies have also had Corbin’s number during the two previous meetings against him where Corbin only survived four combined innings, allowed 13 hits (four HR), eight ER, and came away with an 18.00 ERA. The Phillies have been a top 10 offense against RHPs during the last two weeks and they’ll certainly look to bring Corbin’s recent momentum to a halt.

WAS Bullpen Rating: 4/10

Favorite PHI Bats: JT Realmuto, Alex Bohm, Rhys Hoskins | Sneaky Bat: Edmundo Sosa (15% pOwn%)

Cincinnati Reds vs. Jason Alexander (RHP), MIL

No one is mistaking this Reds offense for the Dodgers, Braves, or any other top offense, but they’ve been posting some decent offensive results and surprisingly rank 6th in the MLB against RHPs over the last two weeks with a 106 wRC+. Another major plus is that nearly the entire lineup remains dirt cheap in DFS. Jason Alexander represents one of the lower-quality starters on the slate. In nine starts, he has posted a 5.03 ERA, 4.66 xFIP, and 1.58 WHIP. The Brewers bullpen, while still good, has shown some weaknesses of their own. Cincinnati is one of those offenses where you don’t necessarily have to go crazy with a four or five-man stack. But a two or three-man stack will certainly open up plenty of salary elsewhere to spend up on pitching or a more expensive stack.

MIL Bullpen Rating: 7/10

Favorite CIN Bats: Jake Fraley, TJ Friedl, Jonathan India | Sneaky Bat: Kyle Farmer (1% pOwn%)

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Atlanta Braves vs. Robbie Ray (LHP), SEA

Robbie Ray has been rolling right along the last few weeks but, if we’re being honest, he hasn’t exactly been facing any premiere offenses (Angels twice, Guardians twice, Nationals, and a sputtering Yankees offense). Tonight he will have to contend with a Braves offense that has crushed lefty pitching for much of the season. Atlanta ranks 3rd on the season with a 124 wRC+ and .188 ISO vs. LHPs. Over the last two weeks against LHPs (136 plate appearances), they have boasted a 171 wRC+ and .202 ISO to go along with a .353 AVG. Robbie Ray could easily win this battle given his high strikeout ability and the Braves’ tendency to strike out often. But it also would surprise me to see the Braves blast a couple of homers off of Ray to go along with a few more hits and runs.

SEA Bullpen Rating: 5/10

Favorite ATL Bats: Ronald Acuna Jr., Austin Riley, Vaughn Grissom | Sneaky Bat: Travis d’Arnaud

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

SS Bo Bichette | DK: $5.7k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Dane Dunning (RHP), TEX

C JT Realmuto | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

3B/SS Bobby Witt Jr. | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Joey Wentz (LHP), DET

C Adley Rutschman | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3k | vs. Brayan Bello (RHP), BOS

OF Kyle Tucker | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Michael Lorenzen (RHP), LAA

1B Christian Walker | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.8k | vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

OF Eloy Jimenez | DK: $4.3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. James Kaprielian (RHP), OAK

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Jake McCarthy | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3.5k | vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

2B Vaughn Grissom | DK: $3.2k, FD: $3k | vs. Robbie Ray (LHP), SEA

OF Jake Fraley | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Jason Alexander (RHP), MIL

1B/OF Michael Toglia | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Zach Davies (RHP), ARI

OF Corbin Carroll | DK: $2.9k, FD: $3.3k | vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

OF TJ Friedl | DK: $2.9k, FD: $3k | vs. Jason Alexander (RHP), MIL

SS Elvis Andrus | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.3k | vs. James Kaprielian (RHP), OAK

1B Vinnie Pasquantino | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Joey Wentz (LHP), DET

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Jake McCarthy OVER 0.5 RBI | +125 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

McCarthy has been an excellent offensive weapon as of late. Over his last 20 games, he is hitting .347 with a 163 wRC+ and 18 RBIs. He’ll get the Coors Field bump today and is batting 3rd, so I like his chances of recording at least one RBI against German Marquez and this Rockies bullpen.

Vaughn Grissom OVER 0.5 Total Bases | -165 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

Grissom gets a tough draw against Robbie Ray today but we just need a single hit from him to cash this prop, which he has done in six straight games. He is also hitting .407 against LHPs during his rookie season and, with the Braves being on the road, there’s always the possibility he gets an extra at-bat that he wouldn’t necessarily get if Atlanta was playing at home.

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Props Edge+ tool. It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place! It also helps identify where you may find the biggest edges for props posted on PrizePicks and Underdog!

Best of luck out there today, everyone!