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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

TGIF! We’ll kick off a sports-filled weekend with a healthy 11-game Friday MLB slate! It’s a fairly well-rounded slate from both pitching and hitting/stack perspectives. For the first time in a while, some poor weather will look to threaten some games so be sure to keep an eye on the latest forecasts once we get closer to first pitch. Let’s get to it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

Three 7:05 ET games with delay concerns today. Be sure to run a final forecast check closer to first pitch to ensure there isn’t any increased risk for a postponement.

• LAD @ WAS (7:05 ET): The current forecast has this game starting dry with rain chances spiking in-game. Some sort of delay is anywhere from “possible” to “probable” here. We can assume that they should eventually get this game in, but be wary, particularly with rostering either starting pitcher.

• MIA @ PHI (7:05 ET): Similar forecast to WAS. The game likely starts dry but there is a chance for a rain delay at any point after that. And, like WAS, they should go on to finish the game eventually.

• MIL @ NYY (7:05 ET): Following suit with the other aforementioned East Coast games, this game will also carry fairly high delay risk but perhaps more of the “late start and play” variety. One way or another, all nine innings should be played eventually.

• BAL @ BOS (7:10 ET): Storms should miss BOS so no significant delay worries here. Winds blowing OUT to left at 10 mph. Bump to bats in an already strong hitter’s park.

• CLE @ LAA (9:38 ET): Winds OUT to center at 10 mph.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Kyle Harrison (LHP), SF | DK: $9k, FD: $8.6k | vs. COL

Harrison prepares to make his fourth MLB start and he’ll land on this slate as a high-risk/high-upside DFS play. Harrison is a high pedigree southpaw pitcher who ranks as the Giants’ top prospect, and a top-20 overall MLB prospect by both MLB.com and FanGraphs. Harrison posted a monster 35.6% kRate (14.4 K/9) in 20 Triple-A starts this year, however, walks were an issue (16.3% BB%, 6.6 BB/9) and he put up a lackluster 4.66 ERA and 5.05 xFIP. His two MLB road games produced lackluster results, however, his lone start at Oracle Park (#2 most pitcher-friendly ballpark) against the Reds resulted in a sterling pitching line of 6.1 IP, 3 H, 2 BB, 0 ER, and 11 K -- good for a massive 37.3 DKFP/62 FDFP.

What really makes Harrison an intriguing DFS option will be his match-up with the road Rockies. The Rockies have been the second-worst road offense in the MLB, averaging just 3.71 runs/gm. Over the last month, when they have faced LHPs on the road, they have put up some utterly atrocious numbers: .169 AVG, .485 OPS, .215 wOBA, .100 ISO, 31 wRC+, and a 30.9% kRate. The Giants are hefty -230 home favorites while the Rockies own a slate-low 3.4 implied runs. The strikeout potential alone makes Harrison a worthy DFS target today.

Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), TOR | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9k | vs. KC

“Reliability” and “Yusei Kikuchi” historically have not gone together in the same sentence, but Kikuchi has been on a really strong run down the regular season stretch. Spanning his last eight starts (45.2 IP), Kikuchi has procured a sturdy 2.56 ERA, 3.18 xFIP, 1.23 WHIP, and 27.4% kRate. What is perhaps most impressive is the fact that he has allowed just a single home run in that eight-game span (0.2 HR/9 Rate). The long ball has historically plagued Kikuchi, evidenced by a 2.06 HR/9 Rate in 2022 and a 1.65 HR/9 Rate for his career. Now that he’s proven that he can consistently keep the ball inside the field of play, he becomes a much more reliable DFS asset.

The Royals have not been completely inept on offense, posting a mid-pack 102 wRC+ and 22.1% kRate against LHPs over the last month. However, they do tend to struggle on the road where they rank last in the MLB, averaging 3.24 runs/gm. The Rogers Centre has been a favorable pitcher’s park this season and Kikuchi tends to pitch better at home as well. The Blue Jays (-250 ML) are tied with the Rangers as the heaviest favorites on the slate so expectations for Kikuchi today should be a quality start (6.0+ IP & ≤ 3 ER) with a win and around 6-to-8 strikeouts along the way.

Bryce Elder (RHP), ATL | DK: $8k, FD: $8.4k | vs. PIT

The value pitching tier is pretty ugly today so I’m not sure how low we can comfortably go today. Elder isn’t ultra-affordable, but he’s cheap enough and will bring some 20 DKFP/40 FDFP potential to lineups. He’s been more reliable at home this season where he owns a 3.02 ERA, 4.23 xFIP, and 1.13 WHIP while averaging +29.6% more FPPG. Spanning his last four starts, which includes a road start against the Dodgers and a Coors Field outing, Elder has come away with a 2.22 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and .195 opp AVG. The Braves are also heavy -210 favorites, so a win bonus should be very attainable for Elder.

The Pirates head in with a lackluster 84 wRC+ against RHPs over the last two weeks, ranking 27th in the MLB. The hit into a ton of ground balls, which plays into Elder’s skillset. I can’t say he’s an extremely strong play, and the strikeout potential is not very high. But if you need a more affordable arm that has a decent chance to pitch through six or possibly seven innings, Elder may be your guy.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Kodai Senga (RHP), NYM | DK: $10k, FD: $10.8k | @ MIN

Jordan Montgomery (LHP), TEX | DK: $9.4k, FD: $10k | vs. OAK

Griffin Canning (RHP), LAA | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.3k | vs. CLE

Emmet Sheehan (RHP), LAD | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.2k | @ WAS

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Collin Snider/Alec Marsh (RHPs), KC

+ Blue Jays: 5.1 implied runs (ranks 4th on the slate).

+ Snider (4.22 ERA, 5.29 xFIP, 1.59 WHIP) will operate as the opener while Marsh (6.23 ERA, 5.26 xFIP, 1.65 WHIP) is the expected long reliever -- neither guy is particularly good.

+ Blue Jays rank 6th in wOBA and 7th in ISO against Marsh’s primary pitches (4-seamer, curveball, changeup).

+ Blue Jays have ranked as the 2nd best offense vs. RHPs over the last week: .913 OPS, .393 wOBA, and 153 wRC+.

+ The Royals have had a bottom-10 bullpen over the last month: 5.21 ERA, 4.90 xFIP, 1.50 WHIP, and 1.68 HR/9 Rate.

- Toronto has struggled at times at home where they average 4.28 runs/gm.

- Rogers Centre: #10 least hitter-friendly ballpark.

Favorite TOR Bats: Davis Schneider, George Springer, Vlad Guerrero Jr.

Bargain Bat: Spencer Horwitz

Baltimore Orioles vs. Tanner Houck (RHP), BOS

+ Orioles: 5.6 implied runs (ranks 1st on the slate).

+ Houck is a very average, at best, starter who has put up a 5.07 ERA, 4.01 xFIP, 1.31 WHIP, and 16.7% HR/FB Rate this season.

+ As a team, the Orioles have played exceptionally well against the Red Sox this season: .343 AVG, .948 OPS, .403 wOBA, .207 ISO, 161 wRC+, and 15.4% kRate.

+ Fenway Park has been the #2 most hitter-friendly ballpark this season and hitting conditions will be strong with winds blowing out to left.

+ The Orioles have been more productive on the road where they average 5.39 runs/gm (vs. 4.68 runs/gm at home).

+ The Red Sox bullpen has been below average over the last month: 4.85 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, and 1.41 HR/9 Rate.

- Houck has some excellent statcast data over the last month so this may not be as strong of a pitching match-up as it appears to be on the surface.

Favorite BAL Bats: Anthony Santander, Gunnar Henderson, Cedric Mullins

Bargain Bat: Ryan O’Hearn

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Eury Perez (RHP), MIA

+ Every Phillies hitter projects for single-digit ownership -- Trea Turner (paternity list) is also expected back in the lineup today.

+ Perez has not been as dominant on the road where he has posted a lackluster 4.25 ERA, 4.92 xFIP, .344 opp wOBA, and 2.00 HR/9 Rate.

+ Perez’s statcast data over the last month is pretty ugly: 230.8 feet average distance (bottom 5th percentile), seven barreled balls (bottom 20th percentile), 39.6% HardContact%, and 58.3% FlyBall%.

+ The Phillies have been lights out against RHPs L2Weeks: .279 AVG (4th), .916 OPS (2nd), .383 wOBA (3rd), .286 ISO (1st), and 140 wRC+ (3rd).

+ The Phillies have been the #6 home offense, averaging 5.19 runs/gm.

+ Phillies: 4.8 implied runs (ranks T-7th on the slate).

-/+ The Marlins bullpen has ranked mid-pack over the last month.

- If Perez can settle in, he’s one of the best young pitchers in baseball.

Favorite PHI Bats: Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper

Bargain Bat: Brandon Marsh

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

2B/OF Mookie Betts, LAD | DK: $6.7k, FD: $4.5k | vs. MacKenzie Gore (LHP), WAS

SS Corey Seager, TEX | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Paul Blackburn (RHP), OAK

1B Matt Olson, ATL | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Mitch Keller (RHP), PIT

SS Trea Turner, PHI | DK: $6k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Eury Perez (RHP), MIA

2B/3B Davis Schneider, TOR | DK: $5k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Collin Snider/Alec Marsh (RHPs), KC

SS Francisco Lindor, NYM | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Dallas Keuchel (LHP), MIN

OF Anthony Santander, BAL | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Tanner Houck (RHP), BOS

SS Willy Adames, MIL | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Luis Severino (RHP), NYY

3B Jake Burger, MIA | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Christopher Sanchez (LHP), PHI

1B Triston Casas, BOS | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Kyle Bradish (RHP), BAL

OF Jasson Dominguez, NYY | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Colin Rea (RHP), MIL

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Austin Hays, BAL | DK: $4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Tanner Houck (RHP), BOS

1B DJ LeMahieu, NYY | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Colin Rea (RHP), MIL

1B/OF Ryan O’Hearn, BAL | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Tanner Houck (RHP), BOS

OF Chris Taylor, LAD | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.6k | vs. MacKenzie Gore (LHP), WAS

OF Brandon Marsh, PHI | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Eury Perez (RHP), MIA

OF Nelson Velazquez, KC | DK: $3.2k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), TOR

2B/SS Ronny Mauricio, NYM | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Dallas Keuchel (LHP), MIN

C Bo Naylor, CLE | DK: $3k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Griffin Canning (RHP), LAA

OF Mark Canha, MIL | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Luis Severino (RHP), NYY

1B Spencer Horwitz, TOR | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Collin Snider/Alec Marsh (RHPs), KC

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Brandon Marsh MORE than 0.5 Total Bases

Bryce Elder MORE than 17.5 Pitching Outs

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!