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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

NFL may be making its return tonight and I know many folks are amped about that, myself included! But for my diehard MLB grinders out there, we still have some baseball action to delve into as well! Another six-game set lands on the main slate ticket and be mindful that this slate will get underway a tad earlier with games beginning at 6:40 ET! For a smaller slate, we’ve got some solid pitching options to choose from. Hitters/stacks may be another issue overall, and the big question to answer today will be how much exposure to Braves bats will you want as they face off with Adam Wainwright, whose right arm is essentially a mobile Coors Field at this point. It’s certainly a prime spot for one of the best offenses in baseball in favorable hitting conditions… but as we all know, things often don’t go according to plan in this sport. Let’s see if we can crack the code today! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• DET @ NYY (7:05 ET): Low-end chance for some rain.

• STL @ ATL (7:20 ET): Warm temps in the 80s with 10 mph winds blowing OUT to left. Bump to bats.

• ARI @ CHC (7:40 ET): 10 mph winds blowing IN from left in the very wind-sensitive Wrigley Field. Temps also in the mid-60s. Bump to pitchers.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Max Fried (LHP), ATL | DK: $9.6k, FD: $10.6k | vs. STL

Will Max Fried be the third Braves starting pitcher in a row to get rocked in this series? Time will tell but when Fried is locked in, he’s one of the best southpaw pitchers in baseball. Since returning from a three-month stint on the IL on August 4th, Fried has posted a sharp 2.86 ERA, 2.86 xFIP, 1.21 WHIP, and 27.0% kRate. Most recently, he smothered a potent Dodgers offense across seven shutout innings, allowing just three hits and two walks with 10 strikeouts -- good for 36.8 DKFP/61 FDFP. So, while he has had some less-than-stellar outings since his return, he also brings a massive ceiling to DFS lineups no matter the opponent.

The Cardinals have put up double-digit runs in each of the first two games of this series. Even though they tagged the fastball specialist Spencer Strider for six runs across just 2.2 innings yesterday, it’s a big adjustment for teams to go from seeing high-90s RHP heaters to Fried’s deceptive LHP mid-70s curveballs the following day. The Cardinals have also mustered just a .218 AVG against LHPs over the last month (ranks 28th) and they’ve managed a subpar 90 wRC+ and 22.6% kRate in that same span. The Braves also check in as absurd -380 ML favorites today (much of that has to do with Waino starting for STL). There are no guarantees in baseball but Fried should be worthy of DFS consideration on this small slate.

Javier Assad (RHP), CHC | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.5k | vs. ARI

Assad entered the starting rotation in early August and he has produced some rock-solid results over his last handful of outings. Spanning his previous five starts, Assad has procured four quality starts (6.0+ IP & ≤ 3 ER) with a stellar 1.62 ERA next to a 0.93 WHIP, .195 opp AVG, and 89.6% Left on Base %. The BABIP luck has fallen in his favor and Assad’s 4.09 xFIP in that five-game span suggests some regression is due but perhaps that holds off for at least one more game. The pitching conditions are excellent at Wrigley Field tonight with cool temperatures combined with winds blowing in from left field. The Cubbies are also heavily favored to win with -165 ML odds.

The D-Backs rank mid-pack in most meaningful offensive metrics against RHPs over the last month. They have some talent in their lineup and recently promoted one of the top prospects in baseball, Jordan iLawlar, up to the big league roster. That being said, they’ve scored four runs or fewer in seven of their last nine games, and, against Javier Assad’s primary pitch mix of sinker, cutter, and 4-seamer, the D-Backs rank 21st in xwOBA. Assad brings some solid 20 DKFP/40 FDFP upside to the table today at reasonable DFS salaries.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA | DK: $11k, FD: $10.3k | @ TB

Ryan Pepiot (RHP), LAD | DK: $8.5k, FD: $8.9k | @ MIA

Carlos Rodon (LHP), DET | DK: $7.5k, FD: $7.4k | vs. DET

Davis Daniel (RHP), LAA | DK: $4k, FD: $5.5k | vs. CLE

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Atlanta Braves vs. Adam Wainwright (RHP), STL

I won’t give a full breakdown here since this is the most obvious stack on the slate. Braves bats should be extremely high-owned with six hitters projected for ≥ 20% pOwn%. Waino has been a disaster this season and has a 10.89 ERA, 2.32 WHIP, .466 opp wOBA, and 2.30 HR/9 Rate across his last ten starts! Conditions are also primed for hitting in Atlanta tonight. That said, it’s baseball and a good offense can struggle against a bad pitcher just like a bad offense can light up an ace. But, if you’re okay with eating the chalk, the Braves bats are more likely than not to come through today.

Chicago Cubs vs. Ryne Nelson (RHP), ARI

+ Cubs: 4.7 implied runs (ranks T-2nd on the slate).

+ Nelson has been awful over his last four starts: 9.16 ERA, 6.63 xFIP, 1.88 WHIP, .364 opp AVG, .449 opp wOBA, and 2.90 HR/9 Rate.

+ The Cubs offense comes in with some strong short-term form vs. RHPs over the last week (205 PA): .285 AVG, .877 OPS, .373 wOBA, .229 ISO, and 135 wRC+.

+ The Cubs have been the #3 home offense this season, averaging 5.35 runs/gm.

+/- The D-Backs bullpen has ranked mid-pack in recent weeks.

- As mentioned a couple of times in this newsletter, conditions at Wrigley will not favor hitters tonight (cool temps w/ winds blowing in).

- Nelson has been MUCH better on the road this season where he owns a respectable 3.30 ERA (vs. 8.59 ERA at home) and averages +147.4% more FPPG.

- Nelson throws a 4-seam fastball over 50% of the time -- the Cubs rank dead last with a .315 xwOBA vs. RHP 4-seamers.

Favorite CHC Bats: Cody Bellinger, Ian Happ, Nico Hoerner

Bargain Bat: Seiya Suzuki

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

New York Yankees vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), DET

+ 7-of-9 Yankees hitters project for single-digit ownership.

+ Yankees: 4.7 implied runs (ranks T-2nd on the slate).

+ Rodriguez is a talented lefty pitcher but his recent statcast data is filled with red figures -- over the last month, he’s allowed nine barreled balls (bottom 10th percentile), a high 30.7% LineDrive%, and 36.4% HardContact%.

+ The Yankees have been a top-five offense vs. LHPs over the last month: .285 AVG (5th), .907 OPS (4th), .383 wOBA (5th), .274 ISO (1st), and 148 wRC+ (4th).

+ The Tigers have had a bottom-10 bullpen over the last month: 5.42 ERA, 4.75 xFIP, 1.51 WHIP, 1.44 HR/9 Rate, and 19.7% kRate.

- In 143 PA vs. the current Yankees roster, Rodriguez has held them to a middling .268 AVG with a solid 28.0% kRate.

- Rodriguez has a sharp 3.03 ERA, 3.68 xFIP, 1.11 WHIP, and 0.63 HR/9 Rate in road games this season.

Favorite NYY Bats: Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres, DJ LeMahieu

Bargain Bat: Jasson Dominguez

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

2B/OF Mookie Betts, LAD | DK: $6.7k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Braxton Garrett (LHP), MIA

OF Julio Rodriguez, SEA | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Zack Littell (RHP), TB

OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), DET

1B/OF Cody Bellinger, CHC | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4k | vs. Ryne Nelson (RHP), ARI

1B Matt Olson, ATL | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Adam Wainwright (RHP), STL

OF Corbin Carroll, ARI | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Javier Assad (RHP), CHC

OF Jazz Chisholm Jr., MIA | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Ryan Pepiot (RHP), LAD

2B Brandon Lowe, TB | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA

OF Kerry Carpenter, DET | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3k | vs. Carlos Rodon (LHP), NYY

OF/SS Luis Rengifo, LAA | DK: $4.1k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), CLE

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Eddie Rosario, ATL | DK: $4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Adam Wainwright (RHP), STL

OF Seiya Suzuki, CHC | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Ryne Nelson (RHP), ARI

1B DJ LeMahieu, NYY | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), DET

OF Jasson Dominguez, NYY | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), DET

OF Jordan Walker, STL | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Max Fried (LHP), ATL

OF Jesus Sanchez, MIA | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Ryan Pepiot (RHP), LAD

C Bo Naylor, CLE | DK: $3k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Davis Daniel (RHP), LAA

3B Nick Madrigal, CHC | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Ryne Nelson (RHP), ARI

SS Jordan Lawlar, ARI | DK: $2k, FD: N/A | vs. Javier Assad (RHP), CHC

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Note: With Austin Riley getting the day off, my home run call has been switched to Julio Rodriguez.

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Matt Olson MORE than 0.5 RBIs

Julio Rodriguez MORE than 1.5 Total Bases

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!