Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 9/7 | Opening Up Tonight's MLB Six-Pack

September 07, 2022

It's a small but balanced slate on the board this evening. Let's see where we may be able to find some potential leverage.

Penned By: Ryan Humphries, @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

There is some all-day Wednesday baseball action popping off today! We’ll of course, be looking to crack open this evening’s main slate six-pack, which features a nice balance of pitching and offense/stack options.

For all of the desktop LineStar users, be sure to check out the new Props Edge+ tool that will help you identify the best player props to wager on, either on a sportsbook, PrizePicks, or Underdog! This tool is in beta testing for now but will be available on the LineStar app in the near future! You may also notice some cosmetic upgrades on the website. Always improving and evolving around here! Now let’s get into today’s six-game slate, shall we?

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

TOR @ BAL (7:05 ET, 7.5 O/U): Some lingering afternoon rain might stick around long enough to trigger a late start but once they get going, they shouldn’t run into any further issues.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Cristian Javier (RHP), HOU | DK: $10.2k, FD: $9.9k | vs. TEX

This slate features four high-quality pitchers at the top of the board and it’s where an overwhelming amount of ownership will fall, rightfully so. We’ll start by highlighting Cristian Javier, who boasts the highest strikeout potential on the slate with an impressive 32.4% kRate. It’s been a few weeks since we’ve seen a ceiling game out of Javier but he does have double-digit strikeout upside in his bag. He’ll look to shut down a Rangers offense that has been fairly league-average against RHPs with a 101 wRC+ over the last two weeks (ranks 13th). Their 24.5% kRate in that same span represents the 8th highest kRate in the MLB so this is certainly a match-up that Javier could rack up some Ks in. In four previous starts against the Rangers this season, Javier has posted a 3.27 ERA, 3.96 xFIP, .203 opp AVG, 1.14 WHIP, and 30.3% kRate; he racked at least seven strikeouts in three of those four meetings. The Astros come in as heavy -290 favorites as well so Javier will have a strong chance to earn a win bonus today.

Jordan Montgomery (LHP), STL | DK: $9.2k, FD: $9.5k | vs. WAS

Monty checks in as the most affordable pitcher out of the ‘big four’ arms on this slate. He draws arguably the best match-up as well, so anticipate a lot of ownership to land on him. Since being traded over to the Cardinals from the Yankees, Montgomery has been about as lights out as a pitcher could be. In his six starts in a St. Louis uniform, he has posted a 5-0 record to go along with a sterling 1.47 ERA, 2.90 xFIP, .211 opp AVG, 0.93 WHIP, and 22.9% kRate. The Nationals have not been as bad as some may have predicted since trading away Juan Soto and Josh Bell, but they’re not a dominant offense by any means. Their 91 wRC+ vs. LHPs over the previous month ranks them 21st and their 25.9% kRate represents the 8th highest in the league. The Cardinals are the heaviest favorites on the slate with -310 ML odds so Montgomery could be in line to earn his sixth win in his last seven games.

Cody Morris (RHP), CLE | DK: $5.3k, FD: $5.7k | @ KC

I wanted to highlight one pitcher outside of the top four guys, but the options get ugly in a hurry. With that said, Morris is the cheapest pitcher on the board today and is somewhat intriguing due to his high strikeout upside. It isn’t the largest of sample sizes, but last year in Triple-A, Morris accounted for a huge 36.1% kRate across 36.2 IP. This year in Triple-A, he increased that to an absurd 51.7% kRate, though only across 15.1 IP. At this time, he won’t be handling a traditional starter’s workload so his success will be heavily dependent on those strikeouts. He did throw 54 pitches in his MLB debut against the Mariners last Friday, but he did run into trouble allowing 4 H, 2 BB, and 2 ER -- so those 54 pitches amounted to just two innings of work. If he can be more efficient and push for around 60 pitches or so, he may rack up enough strikeouts along the way to be worthy of a DraftKings SP2 GPP dart throw. Still, 15 DKFP is probably his ceiling but he would open up plenty of salary to roster all the big bats.

Also Consider:

Alek Manoah (RHP), TOR | DK: $10.5k, FD: $10.9k | @ BAL

Yu Darvish (RHP), SD | DK: $10k, FD: $10.8k | vs. ARI

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Houston Astros vs. Cole Ragans (LHP), TEX

Cole Ragans is coming off of the 15-day IL, but he may not be too limited in today’s game. The rookie has only four MLB starts and 18.1 IP under his belt but, in that time, he has posted a slate-worst 6.10 xFIP to go along with a 1.53 WHIP and .363 opp wOBA. By far, his worst outing as a big leaguer was against these Astros back on August 11th when he allowed 6 H (2 HR), 3 BB, and 5 ER across just 4.1 innings. The Astros have seven RHBs in the lineup tonight, which should bode well for them given Ragans’ splits against righty hitters (6.75 xFIP, .391 wOBA, .279 ISO, 1.70 WHIP). Behind Ragans will be a Rangers bullpen that has posted a 1.68 WHIP in the last two weeks (2nd worst).

TEX Bullpen Rating: 3/10

Favorite HOU Bats: Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez | Sneaky Bat: Kyle Tucker (9% pOwn%)

San Diego Padres vs. Tommy Henry (LHP), ARI

Tommy Henry has pitched decently well over his first six MLB starts, but there is nothing special about his advanced metrics like his 5.09 xFIP and 5.18 SIERA. He’s also allowing a high 43.9% HardHit% and got rocked for seven earned runs in his most recent outing against the Phillies. It is not easy to predict when this Padres lineup will turn its potential into actual results, but we know what sort of DFS scoring upside these guys can provide.

ARI Bullpen Rating: 2/10

Favorite SD Bats: Manny Machado, Josh Bell, Jurickson Profar | Sneaky Bat: Wil Myers (9% pOwn%)

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Cincinnati Reds vs. Javier Assad (RHP), CHC

A Reds mini-stack may be a viable choice today as they face Javier Assad and a struggling Cubs bullpen. Assad has only pitched 10.0 innings in the MLB and has come away fairly unscathed with a 0.90 ERA. However, he has accrued a 5.18 xFIP in that time as well and he is walking (13.0% BB%) as many hitters as he is striking out (13.0% kRate). Following Assad will be a Cubs bullpen that has an MLB-worst 6.84 ERA and 2.70 HR/9 Rate over the last two weeks.

CHC Bullpen Rating: 2/10

Favorite CIN Bats: Jake Fraley, Jonathan India, TJ Friedl | Sneaky Bat: Spencer Steer (8% pOwn%)

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

3B Manny Machado | DK: $6k, FD: | vs. Tommy Henry (LHP), ARI

2B Jose Altuve | DK: $5.9k, FD: | vs. Cole Ragans (LHP), TEX

SS Bo Bichette | DK: $5.5k, FD: | vs. Tyler Wells (RHP), BAL

2B Jonathan India | DK: $4.6k, FD: | vs. Javier Assad (RHP), CHC

2B Nolan Gorman | DK: $4.1k, FD: | vs. Cory Abbott (RHP), WAS

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Seiya Suzuki | DK: $4k, FD: | vs. Mike Minor (LHP), CIN

OF Ian Happ | DK: $3.8k, FD: | vs. Mike Minor (LHP), CIN

2B/OF Brendan Donovan | DK: $2.8k, FD: | vs. Cory Abbott (RHP), WAS

OF Jake Fraley | DK: $2.8k, FD: | vs. Javier Assad (RHP), CHC

OF Franmil Reyes | DK: $2.6k, FD: | vs. Mike Minor (LHP), CIN

OF TJ Friedl | DK: $2.2k, FD: | vs. Javier Assad (RHP), CHC

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

2B Jose Altuve | DK: $5.9k, FD: | vs. Cole Ragans (LHP), TEX

Altuve over his last seven games: .414 AVG, .559 wOBA, .448 ISO, 279 wRC+, with three home runs. Meanwhile, LHP Cole Ragans has been struggling to keep right-handed batters in check and is posting a 6.75 xFIP, .391 wOBA, .279 ISO, 1.70 WHIP, and 2.35 HR/9 Rate to that side of the plate. Altuve will be a prime home run candidate this evening.

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Small slate so let’s just stick to one prop for today.

Jose Altuve OVER 1.5 Total Bases | +100 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

If Altuve doesn’t come through as my home run call of the day, then perhaps he can at least continue to cash in on this o1.5 total bases prop, which he has hit in six of his last seven games. Altuve is hitting .462 with a .582 wOBA against LHPs in that seven-game stretch and, as mentioned above, Cole Ragans has surrendered a lofty .391 wOBA and .279 ISO to RHBs. The Rangers bullpen also has an awful 1.68 WHIP posted over the last two weeks.

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Props Edge+ tool. It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place! It also helps identify where you may find the biggest edges for props posted on PrizePicks and Underdog!

Best of luck out there today, everyone!