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- Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 9/6 | Getting Back to the MLB Action!
Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 9/6 | Getting Back to the MLB Action!
After the long Labor Day weekend, we look toward all of the possibilities that today's 12-game main slate can offer!
Penned By: Ryan Humphries, @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.
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Main Slate Rundown š
I hope everyone enjoyed their Labor Day weekend! Itās an exciting time for sports fans with the NFL regular season set to begin on Thursday, the college football season is officially in full swing, and the MLB enters the home stretch as many teams look to make a final surge in the playoff standings!
But back to the MLB DFS grindstone, we go as Tuesday sets us up with a dozen games to dig into on the main slate. Letās get it!
Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:
Main Slate Weather Outlook āļøš¦ļøāļø
Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.
There is one primary trouble spot for todayās main slateā¦
MIN @ NYY (7:05 ET, 6.5 O/U): ā¦and this is it. It looks like rain will be an issue throughout this game and, best case scenario, theyāll just have to hope to play through some lighter rainfall. Definite PPD risk here so Iāll avoid mentioning any MIN/NYY players for the purposes of this newsletter.
Update: MIN @ NYY has been postponed!
TOR @ BAL (7:05 ET, 8.5 O/U): Low-end chance for a rain delay in the early goings of this game.
MIL @ COL (8:40 ET, 11 O/U): The hottest weather conditions on this slate also happens to be in the best hitterās ballpark. Bats get an obvious boost from the hot temps here -- mid-to-upper 90s around first pitch.
Also, letās make a quick note of the warmer-than-usual temperatures out in some of the west coast ballparks.
Pitchers to Consider ā¾
Kyle Wright (RHP), ATL | DK: $9.7k, FD: $10.6k | @ OAK
Consistency has been the M.O. of Kyle Wright. Going back across his last nine starts, Wright has managed to cover at least six full innings in every game while maintaining a 2.76 ERA, 3.00 xFIP, 1.11 WHIP, and 22.1% kRate. Those arenāt numbers that will impress anyone, but they are some quality results that have helped lead him atop the NL with 17 wins on the season. Looking at Wrightās recent statcast figures, heās doing an excellent job at limiting hard contact and forcing plenty of groundballs. His average distance allowed of 113.9 feet over the last 30 days places him in the 95th percentile of all pitchers. Oakland has not been a complete disaster on offense as of late but, at best, theyāre an average offense; their 97 wRC+ vs. RHPs over the last two weeks reflects that. The Braves are heavy -225 road favorites in this game and Wright should enjoy throwing in Oaklandās very pitcher-friendly ballpark.
Tyler Anderson (LHP), LAD | DK: $8.1k, FD: $9.8k | vs. SF
Anderson is another pitcher who may not crush it on paper, particularly with his below-average 19.5% kRate. However, he does have a sharp 2.68 ERA and 1.02 WHIP on the season. Anderson has also recorded a quality start (6.0+ IP + 3 or fewer ER allowed) in nine of his last 11 starts. He is averaging +21.0% more fantasy points when pitching at home, and this may be a bigger strikeout game for Anderson given the Giantsā 28.1% kRate vs. LHPs over the last two weeks. One final plus is that the Dodgers check in as the heaviest favorites on the slate with huge -330 ML odds.
Kyle Bradish (RHP), BAL | DK: $6.8k, FD: $8.1k | vs. TOR
This is a ārisk it for the biscuitā kinda play, but if the last couple of starts are any indication, Bradish seems to have āfigured something out.ā In those two games (@HOU, @CLE), Bradish combined for 15 shutout innings, allowing four combined hits and snagging 11 strikeouts. No one is really going to look to attack Torontoās lineup with opposing pitching most nights, but the truth is that theyāve been a very average offense in recent weeks. Against RHPs over the last month, their .298 wOBA and 93 wRC+ rank them 19th and 15th, respectively. Now, they have put a hurting on Orioles pitching over the first two games of this series, scoring 15 combined runs. But Bradish may just continue to impress on the mound, and heāll be going nearly un-owned with a 2% pOwn%.
Also Consider:
Shane Bieber (RHP), CLE | DK: $10.6k, FD: $10.8k | @ KC
Framber Valdez (LHP), HOU | DK: $10k, FD: $11k | vs. TEX
Mike Mayers (RHP), LAA | DK: $4.8k, FD: $5.8k | vs. DET
Team Stacks to Target šÆ
Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.
Obligatory Coors Field Stacks
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chad Kuhl (RHP), COL
Colorado Rockies vs. *Brandon Woodruff (RHP), MIL
*Woodruff is a high-caliber pitcher, and many won't be looking to stack Rockies bats tonight. But itās worth noting in his three career Coors Field starts, Woodruff has posted a 9.24 ERA, 1.97 WHIP, 2.10 HR/9 Rate, and 15.6% kRate.
Non-Coors Stacks to Consider
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants (SP TBD)
There is some uncertainty around who the Giants will be starting tonight, but we know it isnāt going to be any of their better/healthy starters like Rodon, Cobb, Webb, or Junis (since all have pitched within the last four days). So the Dodgers, who continue to rank near the top of all major offensive metrics, should be in line to receive a positive match-up this evening. Itās also warmer than usual out on the west coast, and this game may see temperatures close to 90 degrees at first pitch. The Dodgers already lead the MLB with a 129 wRC+ at home this season, so some uncharacteristically warmer weather should only bode well for the bats.
Update: RHP John Brebbia will serve as the opener for the Giants.
SF Bullpen Rating: 4/10
Favorite LAD Hitters: Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Justin Turner | Sneaky Bat: Trayce Thompson (2% pOwn%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Paolo Espino (RHP), WAS
The hot-hitting Cardinals have posted rare back-to-back dud performances on offense over the last two days scoring a combined two runs against the Cubs and Nationals. You pretty much have to go back two full months to find a three-game stretch where STL fell completely flat in three consecutive games. Itās a bit of an arbitrary ātrendā to point out, but, at the same time, this offense has led the MLB with a 133 wRC+ over the last month, so we have to assume they wonāt stay down for long. It isnāt as if theyāre facing off with an elite starter or bullpen. Paolo Espino has an uninspiring 4.22 ERA, 4.18 xFIP, and 1.29 WHIP this season. Heās also allowing a lofty .240 ISO and 2.26 HR/9 Rate to RHBs. So, letās keep the Cards on the stack radar today.
WAS Bullpen Rating: 4/10
Favorite STL Bats: Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Lars Nootbaar | Sneaky Bat: Tommy Edman (2% pOwn%)
Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out š¤
Los Angeles Angels vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), DET
Here are the Angels' splits against LHPs at home over the last month: .317 AVG, .410 wOBA, .317 ISO, 175 wRC+. And hereās a reminder that Mike Trout has been back for only about 2 1/2 weeks. This lineup doesnāt rake top-to-bottom, but we know that Trout and Ohtani provide massive upside as a two-man mini stack. We could see some other Angels hitters come through against Eduardo Rodriguez (4.17 ERA, 4.71 xFIP, 1.41 WHIP) as well, especially given the unusually warm temperatures affecting outdoor ballparks on the west coast.
DET Bullpen Rating: 4/10
Favorite LAA Bats: Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout, David Fletcher | Sneaky Bat: Luis Rengifo (6% pOwn%)
One-Off Bats āļø
Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.
OF Mookie Betts | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.6k | vs. John Brebbia (RHP), SF
OF Shohei Ohtani | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), DET
3B Nolan Arenado | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Paolo Espino (RHP), WAS
2B Jose Altuve | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Glenn Otto (RHP), TEX
3B Austin Riley | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Cole Irvin (LHP), OAK
SS Bo Bichette | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Kyle Bradish (RHP), BAL
OF Anthony Santander | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3k | vs. Mitch White (RHP), TOR
OF Hunter Renfroe | DK: $4.5k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Chad Kuhl (RHP), COL
Bargain Batters šø
Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.
Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings
OF Ian Happ | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Justin Dunn (RHP), CHC
2B Kolten Wong | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Chad Kuhl (RHP), COL
OF Lars Nootbaar | DK: $3.3k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Paolo Espino (RHP), WAS
2B/3B Gunnar Henderson | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Mitch White (RHP), TOR
2B Vaughn Grissom | DK: $3k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Cole Irvin (LHP), OAK
SS Elvis Andrus | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA
OF Franmil Reyes | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Justin Dunn (RHP), CHC
OF Lane Thomas | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Jose Quintana (LHP), STL
Home Run Call of the Day š£š„
OF Hunter Renfroe | DK: $4.5k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Chad Kuhl (RHP), COL
First, we have the clear āCoors Field bumpā working in Renfroeās favor. Second, it will be a scorcher with temps in the mid-to-upper 90s to start this game. Third, in 17 career games played at Coors Field, āTHE GREATā Hunter Renfroe has blasted out nine home runs with a 32.1% HR/FB Rate. Chad Kuhl has a lofty 1.60 HR/9 Rate on the season and the Rockies bullpen has posted a 1.32 HR/9 Rate over the last month (3rd highest in MLB). Weāll be hunting for a Hunter homer today!
Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!
Players Props & Bets š°
Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size
Kyle Wright to Record the Win: Yes | -141 (Caesars) | 2.5 Units
As noted in the DFS pitcher section, Kyle Wright leads the NL with 17 wins under his belt this season. He has earned the win in eight of his last nine starts and heāll be a great bet to get another ādubā this evening as the Braves (-225 ML odds) take on the middling Oakland Aās. Wrightās counterpart, LHP Cole Irvin, is a solid starter in his own right but the Braves have a 155 wRC+ against lefties over the last month (ranks 2nd in MLB) so they should be able to supply their guy with some run support.
Shohei Ohtani to Hit a Home Run: Yes | +360 (FanDuel) | 0.75 Units
Ohtani comes into this game hotter than usual at the plate after launching five home runs out across his last seven games. Heās facing LHP Eduardo Rodriguez this evening, who he has homered off of once before in eight previous plate appearances against him. Behind Rodriguez will be a Tigers bullpen whose 1.57 HR/9 Rate over the last two weeks ranks as the second-highest in the MLB. There will be some great hitting weather out in Anaheim tonight as well. At +360 odds, I donāt mind throwing a small wager on an Ohtani dinger whatsoever.
LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!
Best of luck out there today, everyone!