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Top DFS Offers 9/6/23 💸

Our editors found the top deals in sports-books so you don’t have to! Tapping below links will help support LineStar through an affiliate referral.

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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

Like, Subscribe, and Comment @ LineStar YouTube channel! You never know when we’ll shout you out or give you something cool. New episodes drop Mon-Fri feat. hosts Shannon Sommerville & Tyler Wiemann! Every episode is quick, informative, & easy to watch.

Main Slate Rundown 🏟

With plenty of MLB action underway throughout the day, we’ll be left with a modest six-game main slate this evening. We’ll keep things short and sweet and jump right into a quick little newsletter today. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

Zero notable weather conditions to speak of today!

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Spencer Strider (RHP), ATL | DK: $12.3k, FD: $12.3k | vs. STL

There are a pair of clear-cut aces to spend up on with Strider and Max Scherzer (DK: $11k, FD: $10.4k) both on the bump today. Both are worthy options if you’re shelling out the big bucks for pitching. We’ll give Strider the spotlight after he has poured in at least 23.9 DKFP/39 FDFP in 11 of his last 13 starts. He has rocked an MLB-leading 38.0% kRate this season, which has increased to an eye-popping 41.8% kRate in home games.

The Cardinals rank 25th against RHPs over the last two weeks based on their 85 wRC+ and, in that same span, they’ve posted a lofty 27.3% kRate (4th highest). On the year, St. Louis has struggled a bit more in road games where they average 4.29 runs/gm (vs. 4.77 runs/gm at home). Strider and the Braves (-320 ML) are easily the largest favorites on today’s slate so, while that $12,300 salary is restrictive, there are simply too many factors working in Strider’s favor to ignore.

Clarke Schmidt (RHP), NYY | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.8k | vs. DET

Schmidt looks like perhaps the most favorable SP option if we’re not spending up on one of the top dogs (and/or as a worthy SP2 target on DK to pair with Strider/Scherzer). In his last four starts against teams not named the Atlanta Braves, Schmidt has boasted a 2.82 ERA, 3.49 xFIP, 1.16 WHIP, and 28.4% kRate -- all very strong numbers. Schmidt is also on the mound at home today where he has been a bit more reliable this season.

This match-up with the Tigers is the biggest draw for Schmidt’s viability as a DFS play today. Detroit’s 29.2% kRate versus RHPs over the last two weeks is the highest in baseball and their lackluster 84 wRC+ in that same span ranks them 26th. There just aren’t many scary bats in this lineup that loves to strike out. The Yankees (-168 ML) are the second-heaviest favorites on the slate and Schmidt will bring some solid 20 DKFP/35 FDFP potential to the table.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Max Scherzer (RHP), TEX | DK: $11k, FD: $10.4k | vs. HOU

Kyle Gibson (RHP), BAL | DK: $8.3k, FD: $8.6k | @ LAA

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

New York Mets vs. Joan Adon (RHP), WAS

+ Mets: 5.8 implied runs (ranks 1st on the slate).

+ Adon is a low-quality starter who has faltered to a 5.90 ERA, 4.94 xFIP, and a slate-worst 45.5% HardHit%.

+ Adon owns some very poor statcast data over the last month: 30.0% LineDrive%, 196.4 feet average distance (bottom 15th percentile), and seven barreled balls (bottom 20th percentile).

+ It’s a small sample size, but the Mets have been extremely solid against RHPs over the last week (145 PA): .296 AVG, .930 OPS, .391 wOBA, .289 ISO, and 153 wRC+.

+ Based on their 5.26 ERA and 1.98 HR/9 Rate, the Nationals have had a bottom-10 bullpen over the previous month.

- As poor as much of Adon’s results have been, he has put up a respectable 1.14 WHIP this season.

- The Mets are poised to be a very chalky stack with six hitters having a 24+% pOwn%.

Favorite NYM Bats: Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, Pete Alonso

Bargain Bat: Ronny Mauricio

Atlanta Braves vs. Dakota Hudson (RHP), STL

+ Braves: 5.6 implied runs (ranks 2nd on the slate).

+ Hudson has not fared well on the road (-81.5% less FPPG): 5.40 ERA, 6.15 xFIP, 1.74 WHIP, .407 opp wOBA, 2.16 HR/9 Rate, and 10.7% kRate.

+ In 56 PA vs. the current Braves roster, Hudson has allowed a .306 opp AVG, .353 opp xwOBA, and a 12.5% kRate.

+ Braves have been the #1 home offense vs. RHPs this season: .861 OPS (1st), .365 wOBA (1st), .239 ISO (1st), 127 wRC+ (1st), 21.6% HR/FB Rate (1st), and 109 HRs (1st).

+ Truist Park has been the #5 most hitter-friendly ballpark this season.

+ The Cardinals have had a bottom-10 bullpen over the last month: 5.96 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, and 16.9% kRate.

- Core Braves bats are pricey and need big numbers to return value.

Favorite ATL Bats: Ronald Acuña Jr., Marcell Ozuna, Ozzie Albies

Bargain Bat: Eddie Rosario

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Houston Astros vs. Max Scherzer (RHP), TEX

+ Major leverage against a high-owned Scherzer (DK: 35% pOwn%, FD: 29% pOwn%).

+ Every Astros bats has a < 5% pOwn%.

+ Astros have been en fuego against RHPs L2Weeks: .321 AVG (1st), .906 OPS (3rd), .388 wOBA (2nd), and 150 wRC+ (2nd).

+ If the Astros can knock Scherzer off the mound early, they’ll get a solid amount of at-bats against a Rangers bullpen that has been pretty awful over the last month: 6.02 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, and an MLB-worst 2.39 HR/9 Rate.

- This is still Max Scherzer we’re talking about and, outside of a poor recent start against Milwaukee, he’s been locked in for multiple months.

- Astros: 3.9 implied runs (ranks T-lowest on the slate).

Favorite HOU Bats: Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman

Bargain Bat: Michael Brantley

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Touki Toussaint (RHP), CWS

SS Corey Seager, TEX | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Justin Verlander (RHP), HOU

OF Luis Robert Jr., CWS | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), KC

OF Marcell Ozuna, ATL | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Dakota Hudson, STL

SS Francisco Lindor, NYM | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Joan Adon (RHP), WAS

OF Kerry Carpenter, DET | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3k | vs. Clarke Schmidt (RHP), NYY

1B Ryan Mountcastle, BAL | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Patrick Sandoval (LHP), LAA

2B Gleyber Torres, NYY | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Matt Manning (RHP), DET

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Eddie Rosario, ATL | DK: $4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Dakota Hudson (RHP), STL

SS Anthony Volpe, NYY | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Matt Manning (RHP), DET

1B DJ LeMahieu, NYY | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Matt Manning (RHP), DET

OF MJ Melendez, KC | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Touki Toussaint (RHP), DET

2B/SS Elvis Andrus, CWS | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), KC

OF Jasson Dominguez, NYY | DK: $3.1k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Matt Manning (RHP), DET

OF Nelson Velazquez, KC | DK: $3.1k, FD: $3k | vs. Touki Toussaint (RHP), CWS

2B/SS Ronny Mauricio, NYM | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Joan Adon (RHP), WAS

OF Travis Blankenhorn, WAS | DK: $3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Jose Butto (RHP), NYM

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No PrizePicks plays today!

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!