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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

I hope everyone enjoyed their long Labor Day weekend! We get back to the MLB grind with a busy baseball Tuesday ahead. A handful of games land in the 6 o’clock ET window so we’ll be left with a 10-game main slate. For a 10-game slate, pitching is pretty ugly overall but, on the flip side, we should have no shortage of viable stacks to consider. Let’s get it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• CWS @ KC (7:40 ET): Temps in the upper-90s at first pitch with 10-15 mph winds blowing OUT to right. Good spot for bats.

• SF @ CHC (7:40 ET): Warm and humid. 10-15 mph winds blowing a bit right-to-left, a bit OUT to left.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Gerrit Cole (RHP), NYY | DK: $12k, FD: $11.5k | vs. DET

We’re thin on reliable pitching options on this slate so spending all the way up on Gerrit Cole will be a popular approach on this slate. Finding value bats shouldn’t be much of an issue today, so jamming Cole in at his lofty DFS salaries won’t be overly difficult. Spanning his last 10 starts, Cole has come away with a 3.22 ERA, 3.26 xFIP, 0.87 WHIP, .190 opp AVG, and 28.6% kRate. He has also found plenty of success against this Tigers lineup. In 80 PA versus the current Detroit roster, Cole owns a .171 opp AVG, .226 opp wOBA, and a huge 35.0% kRate.

Against RHPs over the last two weeks, the Tigers are batting just .229 with a subpar .299 wOBA and 87 wRC+. Perhaps the most notable metric is their massive 29.5% kRate against righties in that span. The Yankees (-250 ML) head in as the heaviest favorites on the slate and the Tigers own a slate-low 3.4 implied runs. Cole is likely to be the highest-owned pitcher on the slate but it may be a day to just eat the chalk and differentiate lineups with more contrarian hitters and stacks.

Dean Kremer (RHP), BAL | DK: $8.6k, FD: $9k | @ LAA

The mid-range does not offer many appealing SP options but Dean Kremer will carry some appeal. He has pitched to a respectable 2.37 ERA and 1.05 WHIP across his last five starts and has shown some mid-20s DKFP/40+ FDFP upside in that stretch. His 21.2% kRate on the season isn’t going to blow anyone away but a quality start (6.0+ IP & ≤ 3 ER) with a handful of strikeouts is a favorable outcome for Kremer tonight. The Orioles also boast strong -170 ML odds to win.

The Angels have been fading rapidly down the stretch and boast just a 3-11 record over their last 14 games. In that span, they have scored four runs or fewer in 10 games. Against RHPs in the last two weeks, the Angels rank 21st with a .230 batting average and their 25.2% kRate is the 8th highest in MLB. There’s also a strong chance that Shohei Ohtani will not be in the lineup tonight while dealing with an oblique injury. Kremer may not have a massive ceiling but he should bring a solid floor and “decent enough” upside to DFS lineups today.

Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), ARI | DK: $6.9k, FD: $7.3k | vs. COL

If we’re looking to save some salary at SP, Pfaadt is going to stand out as an enticing option. It’s a bit cherry-picking-ish, but if we ignore his two recent starts against the Dodgers, a team that lit up just about every pitcher in the month of August, then we’ll see that Pfaadt has been pitching very well as of late. In his last four starts against teams not named the Dodgers, we’ll see that Pfaadt has procured a strong 2.16 ERA, 3.76 xFIP, .172 opp AVG, 0.88 WHIP, and 26.3% kRate.

Facing the Rockies outside of Coors Field is one of the best match-ups a pitcher could ask for. Against RHPs on the road over the last month (341 PA), the Rockies have hit for a pitiful .194 AVG, .244 wOBA, and 49 wRC+, and they have struck out at a colossal 34.0% clip. Pfaadt’s rookie season has not been without its ups and downs but he has been trending in the right direction as of late and has a great chance to return value in this pitcher-friendly match-up. The D-Backs (-216 ML) are also the second-heaviest favorites on today’s slate, so snagging that win bonus should be a strong possibility for Pfaadt as well.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Chris Bassitt (RHP), TOR | DK: $9.7k, FD: $9.3k | @ OAK

Dylan Cease (RHP), CWS | DK: $8.8k, FD: $8.2k | @ KC

Brady Singer (RHP), KC | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.3k | vs. CWS

Jose Quintana (LHP), NYM | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.8k | @ WAS

Michael Soroka (RHP), ATL | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.6k | vs. STL

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Atlanta Braves vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL

+ Braves: 5.8 implied runs (ranks 1st on the slate).

+ Mikolas has struggled mightily in recent weeks -- over his last four starts: 7.43 ERA, 5.48 xFIP, 1.48 WHIP, .297 opp AVG, .368 opp wOBA, and 12.7% kRate.

+ Mikolas: seven barreled balls L30Days (bottom 20th percentile).

+ Braves vs. RHPs at home this season: .275 AVG (4th), .858 OPS (1st), .364 wOBA (1st), .236 ISO (1st), 127 wRC+ (1st), 21.3% HR/FB Rate (1st), and 105 HRs (1st).

+ Braves have been the 2nd best home offense in the MLB (5.86 runs/gm).

+ Cardinals have had a bottom-10 bullpen over the last month: 5.46 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, .299 opp AVG, and 17.2% kRate.

- Core Braves bats continue to be very expensive.

Favorite ATL Bats: Ronald Acuña Jr., Marcell Ozuna, Ozzie Albies

Bargain Bat: Eddie Rosario

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

+ D-Backs: 5.0 implied runs (ranks 5th on the slate).

+ Freeland L10 Starts: 6.18 ERA, 5.23 xFIP, 1.59 WHIP, .319 opp AVG, .390 opp wOBA, 2.30 HR/9 rate, and 14.3% kRate.

+ Freeland: 12 barreled balls L30Days (bottom 5th percentile).

+ Freeland has been much worse on the road (-70.8% less FPPG).

+ Rockies have had a bottom-five bullpen over the last month: 7.43 ERA, 5.25 xFIP, 1.76 WHIP, and .306 opp AVG.

- D-Backs have been a below-average offense against LHPs over the last month -- their 86 wRC+ ranks 21st in MLB.

Favorite ARI Bats: Christian Walker, Corbin Carroll, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

Bargain Bat: Gabriel Moreno

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pedro Avila (RHP), SD

+ 8-of-9 Phillies batters have a ≤ 5% pOwn%.

+ Phillies: 4.8 implied runs (ranks T-7th on the slate).

+ Phillies have been the hottest offense over the last two weeks: .947 OPS, .395 wOBA, .299 ISO, 150 wRC+, and 22.1% HR/FB Rate.

-/+ Avila has been solid in limited innings this season (30.1 IP, 2.67 ERA, 3.28 xFIP) but he does own a subpar 1.38 WHIP and has benefited from some pitcher-friendly match-ups.

- Padres have had a top-10 bullpen over the last month.

- Petco Park: #2 most pitcher-friendly ballpark.

Favorite PHI Bats: Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, Bryce Harper

Bargain Bat: Brandon Marsh

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Cody Bellinger, CHC | DK: $6.3k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Ryan Walker (RHP), SF

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Dylan Cease (RHP), CWS

SS Trea Turner, PHI | DK: $5.9k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Pedro Avila (RHP), SD

3B Alex Bregman, HOU | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Nathan Eovaldi (RHP), TEX

OF Juan Soto, SD | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Michael Lorenzen (RHP), PHI

1B Pete Alonso, NYM | DK: $5k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

OF Marcell Ozuna, ATL | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL

1B Ryan Mountcastle, BAL | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Reid Detmers (LHP), LAA

2B/3B Davis Schneider, TOR | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Ken Waldichuk (LHP), OAK

1B Christian Walker, ARI | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

OF Lars Nootbaar, STL | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Michael Soroka (RHP), ATL

2B Gleyber Torres, NYY | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Alex Faedo (RHP), DET

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Eddie Rosario, ATL | DK: $4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL

OF Lourdes Gurriel Jr., ARI | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

SS Anthony Volpe, NYY | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Alex Faedo (RHP), DET

2B/OF Jeff McNeil, NYM | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

OF Seiya Suzuki, CHC | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Ryan Walker (RHP), SF

OF Brandon Marsh, PHI | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Pedro Avila (RHP), SD

OF Jasson Dominguez, NYY | DK: $3k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Alex Faedo (RHP), DET

C Gabriel Moreno, ARI | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

3B/SS Ernie Clement, TOR | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Ken Waldichuk (LHP), OAK

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

The HR Calls of the Day contest will return tomorrow!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Corbin Carroll MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Kyle Freeland MORE than 5.5 Hits Allowed

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!