Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 9/30 | One Final Massive Friday Slate!

September 30, 2022

A load of aces take the mound today for the final big Friday slate of the regular season!

Penned By: Ryan Humphries, @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

The final Friday slate of the regular season arrives! It’s technically a 14-game slate on DraftKings since they are including game two of the PHI @ WAS doubleheader. However, a heavy dosage of rain from Ian is threatening that game so it’s very likely we see a PPD there. So we’ll assume both DraftKings and FanDuel will feature an identical 13-game slate this evening. Friendly reminder that crazy things happen late in the MLB season so be a little extra cautious with your bankroll! With that said, let’s get into this massive slate!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

PHI @ WAS - Game 2 (7:05 ET, 8.5 O/U): As mentioned in the intro, impacts from the outer bands of Hurricane Ian pose a notable PPD threat to this game. This storm is rolling through my area as I’m writing this and, while it’s far from what it was when it rampaged through Florida, it’s just a ton of non-stop moderately heavy rain and winds. They may try to get this game in and play through the rain, but just be cautious here.

KC @ CLE (7:10 ET, 7 O/U): Winds blowing IN from right at 10 mph.

NYM @ ATL (7:20 ET, 6.5 O/U): Winds blowing OUT to left near 10 mph.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Corbin Burnes (RHP), MIL | DK: $10.5k, FD: $10.3k | vs. MIA

A slew of aces headline this slate so it’s an extremely tough call on who to highlight. This late in the season, I usually recommend going after SPs on teams fighting for playoff seeding. The Brewers sit one game back from the Phillies for the final NL Wild Card spot and, with just a handful of games left on the schedule, every game is nearing “must win” territory. Burnes has not been extremely sharp over the last few weeks but he has faced some difficult offenses. Miami should be a favorable match-up as they enter this game with an 89 wRC+ and 25.0% kRate vs. RHPs over the last month. Burnes also owned a 33.8% kRate at home this season (26.6% kRate on the road). He’ll have an elite counterpart with Sandy Alcantara ($10.9k/$10.9k) taking the mound for Miami. However, the Brewers do still enter as strong -185 favorites in today’s game and they’ll certainly need a big performance out of Burnes to continue their late-season playoff push.

Joe Ryan (RHP), MIN | DK: $8.6k, FD: $9.6k | @ DET

Ryan is a bit of a volatile pitcher but when he has his stuff going, he can provide comparable upside to some of the more high-priced aces on the board today. He’s been extremely sharp in three previous outings against this Tigers team this season: 17.2 IP, 1.02 ERA, 2.14 xFIP, 0.57 WHIP, .131 opp AVG, and 38.5% kRate. Detroit routinely ranks near the bottom of all major offensive categories and now they’re dealing with some additional late-season injuries to guys like Willi Castro and Kerry Carpenter. The Twins have no hope for the playoffs so they may be a touch cautious with their young ace but it is more likely that Joe Ryan handles close to, if not all, of a full workload. He’ll be a solid pivot off of some of the high-dollar arms on the slate and should check in with around 10-15% ownership.

Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI | DK: $8k, FD: $9.4k | @ SF

Kelly has a strong track record against the Giants this season. In five starts (35.1 IP) against them, he has come out on the other side with a stellar 1.53 ERA, 3.90 xFIP, 0.74 WHIP, .149 opp AVG, and a 23.3% kRate. He hasn’t had a truly awful outing in months despite facing some strong overall competition. The Giants have been a top 10 offense versus RHPs over the last two weeks (109 wRC+, ranks 9th) but they have offered up a 25.9% kRate in that same span.

Also Consider:

Sandy Alcantara (RHP), MIA | DK: $10.9k, FD: $10.9k | @ MIL

Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA | DK: $8.4k, FD: $9.8k | vs. OAK

Brady Singer (RHP), KC | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9.7k | @ CLE

Jack Flaherty (RHP), STL | DK: $7.4k, FD: $7.9k | vs. PIT

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chad Kuhl (RHP), COL

Assuming the Dodgers continue to roll out most/all of their typical starters, it’s just too enticing to target Chad Kuhl. Since the beginning of July, Kuhl has accounted for an awful 8.15 ERA, 1.79 WHIP, .322 opp AVG, .428 opp wOBA, and a 2.70 HR/9 Rate. His results have been nearly identical whether he’s pitching at Coors Field or on the road, so the “Coors Field effect” cannot be used as an excuse in Kuhl’s case. This entire Dodgers lineup isn’t clicking lately, but the usual suspects near the top of the order are still providing solid fantasy upside on a routine basis.

COL Bullpen Rating: 3/10

Favorite LAD Bats: Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith | Sneaky Bat: Max Muncy (14% pOwn%)

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

Pivetta owns a slate-worst 1.65 WHIP over his last five starts and he has ranked inside the bottom 5% of pitchers over the last 30 days in both average exit velocity (91.8 mph) and barreled balls (9). Over the previous two weeks, Toronto has ranked 5th in the MLB with a 120 wRC+, 4th with a .335 wOBA, and 2nd with a .196 ISO. They have clinched an AL Wild Card spot but are still fighting for seeding purposes. The Blue Jays have been a tough team to “get right” all season but it’s a solid spot for them today, especially if the Red Sox bullpen continues to struggle.

BOS Bullpen Rating: 3/10

Favorite TOR Bats: George Springer, Bo Bichette, Danny Jansen | Sneaky Bat: Vlad Guerrero Jr. (4% pOwn%)

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Baltimore Orioles vs. Domingo German (RHP), NYY

Despite a valiant effort in the second half of the season, the O’s are all but eliminated from postseason play. I’d still expect them to go out fighting and they’ve been one of the best offenses in the MLB recently. It’s a small sample size, but they own a league-high 153 wRC+, .382 wOBA, and .253 ISO over the last week. Domingo German hasn’t been too sharp in his recent outings and he’s also not pitching very deep into games. That could lead to more innings from a Yankees bullpen that has been good on the season as a whole, but they’ve struggled to a 1.60 WHIP over the last two weeks (4th worst).

NYY Bullpen Rating: 6/10

Favorite BAL Bats: Gunnar Henderson, Cedric Mullins, Adley Rutschman | Sneaky Bat: Ryan Mountcastle (2% pOwn%)

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $6.5k, FD: $5.1k | vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), BAL

OF Juan Soto | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Davis Martin (RHP), CWS

C Will Smith | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Chad Kuhl (RHP), COL

OF George Springer | DK: $5k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

OF Mitch Haniger | DK: $4.5k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Ken Waldichuk (LHP), OAK

OF Taylor Ward | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Glenn Otto (RHP), TEX

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

3B/SS Gunnar Henderson | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Domingo German (RHP), NYY

1B Christian Walker | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Alex Cobb (RHP), SF

C Danny Jansen | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

OF Oswaldo Cabrera | DK: $3.1k, FD: $3k | vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), BAL

SS Livian Soto | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Glenn Otto (RHP), TEX

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Taylor Ward OVER 1.5 Total Bases | +150 (DraftKings) | 1.75 Units

Ward has been extremely productive at the plate as of late with a .396 AVG, .486 wOBA, .321 ISO, and 216 wRC+ over his last 20 games. He has cashed the over on this prop in seven of his last nine games and he’ll be up against a subpar starter in RHP Glenn Otto who happens to own some unremarkable reverse splits. Against RHBs this season, Otto has a 5.14 ERA, 5.15 xFIP, 1.43 WHIP, and .353 opp wOBA.

Jack Flaherty OVER 15.5 Pitching Outs | -105 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

Flaherty has battled back from injuries this season and the Cardinals have been easing him into a full workload. In his last start (@ SD), Flaherty threw a season-high 99 pitches and covered six full innings. Many starting pitchers on playoff teams would face light restrictions at this time of the regular season but there is reason to believe that the Cardinals would like to get Flaherty fully stretched out before postseason play begins next week. He draws a favorable match-up at home with the Pirates today and I like his chances of covering at least 5.1 innings in this game.

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!