Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 9/29 | Taking On Tonight's Four-Game Late Slate!

September 29, 2022

There is not a ton of MLB action going down this evening but we do have some west coast baseball action to delve into!

Penned By: Ryan Humphries, @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

It’s a bit of an odd MLB schedule today so the DFS slates are off-kilter as well. We’ll get a late-night four-game slate that will start up at 9:38 ET. Do note that the FanDuel five-game “main slate” begins at 7:40 ET with the inclusion of the MIA @ MIL game. But for the sake of consistency, we’ll stick to only the four late west coast games in today’s newsletter. Let’s get to it!

Also, I hope all of the Florida readers are safe and I wish you the best. And RIP Coolio :(

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

No weather concerns on this slate!

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Carlos Rodon (LHP), SF | DK: $10.1k, FD: $10.8k | vs. COL

We’ve got two stud pitchers on this little four-game slate with Rodon and Shohei Ohtani ($10.5k/$11.1k). Both guys will stick out as the two highest-owned pitchers on the slate, and I suspect many DraftKings players will find a way to jam both guys into the same lineup. If I’m forced to pick one over the other, I’ll just narrowly side with Rodon. Both guys own an identical 32.9% kRate on the season, but Rodon has hoisted a 37.6% kRate over his last five starts whereas Ohtani has a 29.0% kRate in his last five. But, again, there isn’t much separating these guys projection-wise this evening. Rodon has been more of a force when pitching at home where he has hoisted a 2.08 ERA and 35.0% kRate throughout the season. He also gets to face a Rockies team that has done little offensively when they’ve gone on the road away from the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field. Dating back to Aug. 25th, the Rockies have played 17 road games; they’ve scored three runs or fewer in 14 of those games. When Colorado faced LHPs on the road in that same span, they managed just a .200 AVG, .208 wOBA, .056 ISO, 31 wRC+, and a 26.1% kRate. As long as Rodon doesn’t face any late-season restrictions, he should have another stellar game tonight.

Andrew Heaney (LHP), LAD | DK: $9.7k, FD: $10.2k | @ SD

It’s difficult to get too contrarian on a small slate, especially at pitcher, but you may want to consider Heaney for GPP purposes. He won’t be getting the start tonight, but instead, he is likely to serve as the bulk reliever behind opener Brusdar Graterol. Heaney has made 14 starts and has 64.2 IP this season. In that time, he owns an electric 35.0% kRate to go alongside a sharp 3.06 ERA, 2.93 xFIP, and 1.08 WHIP. The Dodgers are locked into the top seed in the NL playoffs while the Padres are still looking to clinch a Wild Card berth, so they’ll most definitely be rolling out their best healthy lineup. However, they have been fairly average against LHPs with a 101 wRC+ in the last month (though they have struck out just 18.3% of the time against lefties). When Heaney recently faced the Padres back on Sept. 11th, he threw five three-hit innings on 74 pitches, allowed one run, recorded six strikeouts, and came away with 22.3 DKFP/36 FDFP. He’s not cheap on this slate so you’ll want to get at least a 20 DKFP/35 FDFP result from him for value, but he could easily end up being the second or third-highest scoring pitcher on the slate even though he isn’t scheduled to start this game. His ownership will be well below that of both Ohtani and Rodon.

Also Consider:

Shohei Ohtani (RHP), LAA | DK: $10.5k, FD: $11.1k | vs. OAK

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Sean Manaea (LHP), SD

The Dodgers may roll out a slightly watered-down lineup today but I would still expect most of their everyday starters to play this evening. Sean Manaea isn’t penciled in as the official starter, but he could enter this game as the bulk reliever. If that is indeed the case, the Dodgers may be in a favorable spot due to Manaea’s recent struggles. In his last five appearances (18.0 IP), Manaea has come away with a 9.50 ERA, 1.83 WHIP, and .452 opp wOBA. In 13.2 IP against the Dodgers this season, he owns a 14.49 ERA, 2.27 WHIP, and .482 opp wOBA. The Dodgers haven’t necessarily been great against lefties recently (106 wRC+ in the last month, ranks 13th) but they’ve had no issues with racking up some offense against Manaea this season.

SD Bullpen Rating: 7/10

Favorite LAD Bats: Mookie Betts, Max Muncy, Will Smith | Sneaky Bat: Austin Barnes (<5% pOwn%)

Los Angeles Angels vs. Cole Irvin (LHP), OAK

Cole Irvin’s last five starts have resulted in an 8.48 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, .342 opp AVG, and .406 opp wOBA. The Angels have been stout against LHPs as of late, ranking 6th in the MLB with a 124 wRC+ over the previous month. They’ve accounted for a huge .245 ISO in that span as well (ranks 2nd in MLB). No issues with going with some Angels bats this evening, although, with Ohtani on the mound, he won’t be able to qualify as a viable piece to any LAA offensive stacks.

OAK Bullpen Rating: 3/10

Favorite LAA Bats: Mike Trout, Taylor Ward, Luis Rengifo | Sneaky Bat: Matt Duffy (<5% pOwn%)

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

San Francisco Giants vs. Ryan Feltner (RHP), COL

So I don’t expect the Giants to be incredibly low-owned but most of these hitters should chime in at under 15% ownership. There are only eight offenses in play, after all, and if you’re looking to be ultra contrarian in GPPs, then feel free to bet against one of the two chalky pitchers on the slate and load up on some Rockies (vs. Rodon) or A’s (vs. Ohtani) stacks. The Giants have been solid on offense heading into this game and have come away with a 118 wRC+ over the last week. They’ll face a subpar starter in Ryan Feltner (5.91 ERA, 4.40 xFIP, 1.43 WHIP) who will be backed up by a poor Rockies bullpen. This will be the seventh game the Giants have had against the Rockies in 10 days so they should be very familiar with most of the Rockies pitchers.

COL Bullpen Rating: 3/10

Favorite SF Bats: JD Davis, Mike Yastrzemski, Brandon Crawford | Sneaky Bat: David Villar (7% pOwn%)

Note: The SF Giants lineup shown above is not confirmed.

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Mike Trout | DK: $6k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Cole Irvin (LHP), OAK

OF Mookie Betts | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4.2k | vs. *Sean Manaea (LHP), SD

3B Manny Machado | DK: $5.4k, FD: $4.6k | vs. *Andrew Heaney (LHP), LAD

OF Adolis Garcia | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Marco Gonzales (LHP), SEA

C Cal Raleigh | DK: $4.1k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Jon Gray (RHP), TEX

*Expected Long Reliever

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Mike Yastrzemski | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Ryan Feltner (RHP), COL

1B/3B JD Davis | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Ryan Feltner (RHP), COL

C Austin Barnes | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2k | vs.*Sean Manaea (LHP), SD

3B Josh Jung | DK: $2.3k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Marco Gonzales (LHP), SEA

*Expected Long Reliever

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Carlos Rodon OVER 7.5 Strikeouts | -104 (FanDuel) | 2.0 Units

To reiterate a couple of points mentioned with Rodon earlier in this newsletter: he has shown more strikeout upside at home (35.0% kRate at home this season), he boasts a 37.6% kRate over his last five starts, and the Rockies have been awful against LHPs over their last 17 away games (.200 AVG, .208 wOBA, .056 ISO, 31 wRC+, 26.1% kRate). Rodon has hit the over on this 7.5 K prop in five of his last seven starts so, as long as he handles a normal workload, I’d expect him to put up at least 8 Ks again this evening.

JD Davis to Hit a Home Run | +700 (PointsBet) | 0.5 Units

Might as well throw out a little home run prop on this small slate since there isn’t much that I feel extremely confident in (outside of over on the Rodon 7.5 K prop). JD Davis has a .310 ISO and 52.9% HardContact% against RHPs over the previous month and he has launched a couple of home runs within his last three games. Rockies RHP Ryan Feltner has a 1.76 HR/9 Rate vs. RHBs this season -- and that figure surprisingly rises to a 2.21 HR/9 Rate against RHBs when Feltner has pitched outside of Coors Field. Over the last 30 days, Feltner ranks in the bottom 5% of pitchers with a 91.7 mph average exit velocity and he’s in the bottom 10% with an average distance of 198.7 feet on batted balls. At a 7/1 payout, I’ll throw a little scratch on a JD Davis homer tonight.

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!