Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

• Rate LineStarApp on the App store and get a shoutout on Twitter from @LineStarApp official account!

• Have questions? Check out the LineStar Tutorial Wiki.

Top DFS Offers 9/29/23 💸

Our editors found the top deals in sports-books so you don’t have to! Tapping below links will help support LineStar through an affiliate referral.

• Sleeper DFS - Deposit Match up to $100 ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

• Underdog DFS - Deposit Match up to $100 ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

• Thrive DFS - Deposit Match up to $100 ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

• Chalkboard DFS - Deposit Match up to $300 ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

Must be 18+ (some states may require 21+) and be present in an eligible state; if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.

OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

Like, Subscribe, and Comment @ LineStar YouTube channel! You never know when we’ll shout you out or give you something cool. New episodes drop Mon-Fri feat. hosts Shannon Sommerville & Tyler Wiemann! Every episode is quick, informative, & easy to watch.

Main Slate Rundown 🏟

We have arrived at the final Friday of the MLB regular season, and, like all Fridays for the previous six months, we have a jam-packed slate of games ahead of us with 13 match-ups on the main slate ticket. With the season winding down, be sure to exercise some added caution over these next three days since many teams are going to be rolling out “scrubby” lineups and/or their sixth/seventh/eighth starter in the rotation. If anyone reading this is looking to shut down their MLB DFS ventures in order to focus on other sports, well, I’d just like to say thanks for reading this season! It’s been an adventure!

Since there are no weekend MLB newsletters, this will be the final write-up of the regular season but, as mentioned yesterday, we’ll be dishing out postseason newsletters for any (Mon-Fri) slate that features four games. Then we’ll come back with some showdown newsletters for the World Series. Also, I’m on the road today headed to Knoxville for the South Carolina/Tennessee football game tomorrow so this is being written earlier than usual. Just mentioning this in case some REALLY unexpected starting lineups are confirmed later today. Anyhow, let’s get into it, and best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• PHI @ NYM (7:10 ET): A good amount of rain is expected throughout the day and possibly into the early evening in New York. We saw them postpone a game earlier this week due to the field not holding up to wet conditions and that possibility cannot be ruled out at this time. We’ll need to keep an eye on things here for sure. If they play, it’ll be in cool temps around 60 degrees with stiff 15 mph winds blowing IN from center. UPDATE: This game has already been postponed.

• NYY @ KC (8:10 ET): 10 mph winds but they’ll mostly be blowing right-to-left.

• MIN @ COL (8:10 ET): ~15 mph winds, mostly right-to-left, a bit OUT to left.

• CIN @ STL (8:15 ET): Light winds IN from right.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Lance Lynn (RHP), LAD | DK: $8.6k, FD: $9.5k | @ SF

Maybe it’s a bit of recency bias kicking or perhaps it’s the “late-season shenanigans” that often occur down this final stretch, but today’s pitching player pool sets up as one of the trickiest we’ve seen all year. Few, if any of today’s SPs can be fully trusted but I believe we can look for Lance Lynn to provide solid DFS returns this evening. The Dodgers are locked into their playoff spot, so they probably couldn’t care less if they win or lose this game. However, Lynn has plenty of motivation to prove that he is a deserving postseason option on the mound. Lynn’s tenure as a Dodger started off well after he was acquired at this season’s trade deadline, then they quickly went south with a couple of awful outings, and he has now leveled back out with a trio of solid starts over his last three games.

The major draw for Lynn will be his match-up with a defeated Giants team that completely fumbled their chances at a wild card berth over the last several weeks of the season. Their offense, or lack thereof, has hit for an MLB-worst .176 AVG against RHPs to go along with an abysmal 64 wRC+ and a higher-than-average 24.6% kRate. All-in-all, if you need a somewhat trustworthy, albeit unexciting, SP option on this slate, Lance Lynn looks like a guy to target.

Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.8k | @ BAL

It’s difficult to ignore the raw strikeout upside of a guy like Pivetta, who leads all SPs on this slate with a 30.7% kRate. If we look at his splits since June 18th, which includes a mixture of starts and long relief appearances out of the bullpen, then we’ll see that his kRate has risen even further, to an outstanding 36.1% to go alongside a 2.83 xFIP, 0.97 WHIP, and .191 opp AVG. He has seriously been one of the more impressive pitchers in the second half of the season.

The Orioles can clinch the AL East with a win and a Rays loss so they’ll be playing with plenty of motivation. That said, they haven’t been overly stout against RHPs as of late. Against RHPs L2 Weeks, they’ve ranked mid-pack with a 98 wRC+ but, more importantly (for Pivetta’s DFS argument), they have struck out 26.7% of the time (8th highest). This game is also in Baltimore where the O’s have been much less potent this season. In 2023, they have averaged a good-not-great 4.56 runs/gm, as opposed to 5.49 runs/gm away. So, if you’re hunting for some serious K upside, Pivetta can provide that and checks in with extremely fair DFS price tags out of the mid-range.

Ken Waldichuk (LHP), OAK | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.9k | @ LAA

This A’s and Angels season finale series feels like a competition of “who had the bleakest 2023 season?” Things have gone awry for both of these organizations, in different ways, but Ken Waldichuk has been somewhat of a bright spot in an otherwise dim A’s season. Spanning his last nine starts, Waldichuk has emerged with a highly respectable 3.02 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, .233 opp AVG, and 20.2% kRate. The Angels are rolling out a glorified Triple-A lineup at this point and, over the last two weeks, they have posted an MLB-high 32.1% kRate with a poor .226 AVG and 79 wRC+. With Waldichuk looking to cement his spot in the rotation for 2024, this is about as good of a match-up as he could hope for so we’ll look for him to leave a strong impression in his final start of the season.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Joe Ryan (RHP), MIN | DK: $9k, FD: $10k | @ COL

Allan Winans (RHP), ATL | DK: $8.7k, FD: $6.5k | vs. WAS

Aaron Civale (RHP), TB | DK: $8k, FD: $8k | @ TOR

John Means (LHP), BAL | DK: $7.4k, FD: $7.4k | vs. BOS

Chase Silseth (RHP), LAA | DK: $6.9k, FD: $7.7k | vs. OAK

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Minnesota Twins vs. Ty Blach (LHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Joe Ryan (RHP), MIN

Non-Coors Stacks

Cincinnati Reds vs. Jake Woodford (RHP), STL

+ Reds: 4.8 implied runs (ranks 4th among non-Coors teams).

+ Woodford makes for a low-quality starter who has put up a 5.09 ERA, 5.15 xFIP, 1.65 WHIP, .379 opp wOBA, and a slate-high 49.7% HardHit% this season.

+ The Reds have been perhaps the hottest offense in baseball over the last week: .902 OPS (1st), .384 wOBA (1st), .256 ISO (2nd), and 137 wRC+ (1st).

+ The Reds are still mathematically alive in the playoff hunt, so motivation should not be in question today.

+ Busch Stadium has been the #7 hitter’s park this season & the Reds have been a touch better offensively on the road (4.88 runs/gm away vs. 4.62 runs/gm at home).

- The Cardinals have had a borderline top-10 bullpen L2 Weeks.

Favorite CIN Bats: TJ Friedl, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Spencer Steer

Bargain Bat: Will Benson

Atlanta Braves vs. Trevor Williams (RHP), WAS

+ Braves: 6.0 implied runs (ranks 1st among non-Coors teams).

+ Besides a couple of decent starts at the end of August, Trevor Williams has been awful over his previous 10 MLB starts: 7.80 ERA, 5.88 xFIP, 1.88 WHIP, .340 opp AVG, .426 opp wOBA, 2.90 HR/9, and a 15.0% kRate.

+ Braves vs. RHPs L30 Days: .276 AVG (3rd), .857 OPS (2nd), .364 wOBA (2nd), .239 ISO (2nd), 128 wRC+ (2nd), and 17.2% kRate (lowest).

+ The Nats bullpen has been below average over the L2 Weeks.

- Be on the lookout for a bit of a “watered down” Braves lineup today since they locked up home-field advantage throughout the entire postseason last night and do not have anything left to play for in this series.

- Core Braves bats are very expensive.

Favorite ATL Bats: Ronald Acuña Jr., Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies

Bargain Bat: Orlando Arcia

Low-Owned Stacks That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Texas Rangers (LHBs Preferred) vs. Bryan Woo (RHP), SEA

Houston Astros vs. Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI

Seattle Mariners vs. Nathan Eovaldi (RHP), TEX

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Ronald Acuña Jr., ATL | DK: $6.8k, FD: $5k | vs. Trevor Williams (RHP), WAS

SS Corey Seager, TEX | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Bryan Woo (RHP), SEA

OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), KC

OF Corbin Carroll, ARI | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.1k | vs. JP France (RHP), HOU

OF Yordan Alvarez, HOU | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI

OF Juan Soto, SD | DK: $5.2k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Dylan Cease (RHP), CWS

OF JD Martinez, LAD | DK: $5.2k, FD: $4k | vs. Keaton Winn (RHP), SF

OF Nolan Jones, COL | DK: $4.8k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Joe Ryan (RHP), MIN

1B/3B Christian Encarnacion-Strand, CIN | DK: $4.3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Jake Woodford (RHP), STL

1B Brandon Drury, LAA | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3k | vs. Ken Waldichuk (LHP), OAK

OF Seiya Suzuki, CHC | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Colin Rea (RHP), MIL

C Ryan Jeffers, MIN | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Ty Blach (LHP), COL

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

3B/OF Willi Castro, MIN | DK: $4k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Ty Blach (LHP), COL

OF James Outman, LAD | DK: $4k, FD: $3k | vs. Keaton Winn (RHP), SF

OF Esteury Ruiz, OAK | DK: $4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Chase Silseth (RHP), LAA

OF Evan Carter, TEX | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Bryan Woo (RHP), SEA

C Logan O’Hoppe, LAA | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Ken Waldichuk (LHP), OAK

1B/3B Donovan Solano, MIN | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Ty Blach (LHP), COL

1B LaMonte Wade Jr., SF | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Lance Lynn (RHP), LAD

OF Will Benson, CIN | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Jake Woodford (RHP), STL

OF Michael A. Taylor, MIN | DK: $3.2k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Ty Blach (LHP), COL

3B Junior Caminero, TB | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), TOR

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Christian Encarnacion-Strand

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No PrizePicks plays today!

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!