Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

• Rate LineStarApp on the App store and get a shoutout on Twitter from @LineStarApp official account!

• Have questions? Check out the LineStar Tutorial Wiki.

Top DFS Offers 9/28/23 💸

Our editors found the top deals in sports-books so you don’t have to! Tapping below links will help support LineStar through an affiliate referral.

• Sleeper DFS - Deposit Match up to $100 ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

• Underdog DFS - Deposit Match up to $100 ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

• Thrive DFS - Deposit Match up to $100 ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

• Chalkboard DFS - Deposit Match up to $300 ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

Must be 18+ (some states may require 21+) and be present in an eligible state; if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.

OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

Like, Subscribe, and Comment @ LineStar YouTube channel! You never know when we’ll shout you out or give you something cool. New episodes drop Mon-Fri feat. hosts Shannon Sommerville & Tyler Wiemann! Every episode is quick, informative, & easy to watch.

Main Slate Rundown 🏟

With many teams off today and preparing/traveling for their final series of the regular season, we’ll be left with a modest five-game main slate set this evening. Smaller slates can be fickle to begin with, and they’re even trickier when a Coors Field game is in play, like today. Your MLB DFS day can be made or broken depending on the ultimate output of today’s LAD @ COL match-up and what sort of exposure you’re giving that game, if any. This should be a fun little slate regardless so let’s get into today’s quick newsletter! Best of luck!

Also, I’ll probably mention this in tomorrow’s newsletter as well (aka the final regular season MLB newsletter), but the plan for the playoffs is to get a newsletter out for any four-game Mon-Fri playoff slate. Then we’ll return with some single-game/showdown newsletters for the World Series. This should be an amazing postseason ahead, so buckle up!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• MIA @ NYM (7:10 ET): Chance for some moderate rain in the middle/later innings. Cool temps in the 50s with ~10 mph winds blowing IN from right.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Jesus Luzardo (LHP), MIA | DK: $9k, FD: $9.7k | @ NYM

The Marlins, who currently sit a half-game back in the NL Wild Card race, will be looking for a big night out of their southpaw hurler. Luzardo has had an up-and-down season but he has hit a pretty nice stride over his last six games. In that stretch, he has come away with a strong 2.91 ERA, 3.96 xFIP, 1.09 WHIP, .197 opp AVG, and 27.9% kRate while scoring at least 18.5 DKFP/34 FDFP in 4-of-6 starts and topping at least 27.7 DKFP/46 FDFP thrice. That sample size includes good-to-great outings against the likes of the Braves, Dodgers, Rays, and Padres.

The Mets season has been in the gutters for a while now and, at this point in the season, they’re rolling out a large portion of their younger rookie prospects with only a few veterans in the mix. Assuming they continue to start, Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso are the two primary bats that Luzardo will need to worry about. Otherwise, there are plenty of potential strikeout candidates in the back half of the (projected) batting order. The Mets have been a mid-pack offense against LHPs over the last two weeks, ranking 14th with a 97 wRC+ to go alongside a 23.9% kRate (11th highest). Luzardo typically fares better at home (-29.7% less FPPG away), but Citi Field is one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks in the MLB, and cool temps combined with ~10 mph winds blowing in from right field will make for a strong pitching environment. As long as that potential wet weather doesn’t spark a middle-inning delay and cut Luzardo’s start short, he should be a prime SP target on this small slate.

Jordan Montgomery (LHP), TEX | DK: $8.8k, FD: $10.2k | @ SEA

If you want to see a playoff atmosphere, this TEX @ SEA match-up is the game to watch this evening. The Rangers are looking to inch closer to clinching the AL West division while the Mariners look to chase down a wild card berth, sitting a half-game back from the Houston Astros for the final AL WC spot. The Rangers will roll out LHP Jordan Montgomery this evening who is on the heels of a trio of impressive outings. In Monty’s last three starts, he has gone seven full innings in each game while procuring a sterling 0.43 ERA, 3.80 xFIP, 0.81 WHIL, .187 opp AVG, 21.8% kRate, and 94.1% Left on Base%. The xFIP and kRate are not spectacular, but he’s been finding ways to battle through innings and pitch deep into games while limiting the opponent run damage. He has also been excellent on the road this season where he owns a 2.82 ERA (vs. 3.61 ERA at home).

Montgomery just faced this Mariners team five days ago, which does spark some slight concerns. However, he handled this lineup with relative ease, posting a pitching line of 7.0 IP, 102 PC, 5 H, 2 BB, 0 ER, and 6 K while posting 27.6 DKFP/49 FDFP. The Mariners have gotten hot against LHPs at times this year but, overall, they’ve had their fair share of struggles against southpaws and have an MLB-high 26.1% kRate against them this season. Over the last month against LHPs, they rank 19th with a 94 wRC+ to go alongside a 25.0% kRate (9th highest). T-Mobile Park (#1 most pitcher-friendly ballpark) certainly favors pitchers more than hitters so we should anticipate a low-scoring affair between the Mariners and Rangers this evening and look for yet another impressive outing from Montgomery.

David Peterson (LHP), NYM | DK: $7k, FD: $8.6k | vs. MIA

This slate’s pitching definitely leans top-heavy but David Peterson does stand out as a strong value SP option. He’s rocking a sturdy 31.9% kRate over his last five starts and, although he has a lackluster 4.73 ERA in that span, he has pitched much, much better than that ERA would indicate based on his 2.85 xFIP. He’s also at home today where he has seen a massive bump in his FPPG average (+61.9%). The Mets as a team have nothing to play for, outside of playing the role of spoiler for the Marlins’ playoff hopes. However, Peterson should be treating this as his final “audition start” of 2023 to make his case as a starting-rotation-worthy pitcher for the 2024 season. Against LHPs over the last month, the Marlins have ranked mid-pack in most key offensive categories so it’s far from a brutal match-up for Peterson this evening.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Chris Bassitt (RHP), TOR | DK: $8.6k, FD: $9.5k | vs. NYY

Ryan Yarbrough (LHP), LAD | DK: $6.3k, FD: $6.9k | @ COL

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Ryan Yarbrough (LHP), LAD

Non-Coors Stacks

Atlanta Braves vs. Marcus Stroman (RHP), CHC

+ Braves: 5.1 implied runs (ranks 1st among non-Coors teams).

+ After missing all of August and half of September with multiple injuries (hips, ribs), Stroman is working his way back up to a typical workload and only threw 64 pitches across 3.0 IP in his last start five days ago.

+ Stroman’s last six appearances on an MLB mound have gone very poorly: 11.25 ERA, 2.44 WHIP, .367 opp AVG, .431 opp wOBA, and 18.0% kRate.

+ Stroman has averaged -23.3% less FPPG on the road.

+ Braves vs. RHPs L2 Weeks: .287 AVG (3rd), .884 OPS (1st), .372 wOBA (1st), .247 ISO (1st), and 134 wRC+ (1st).

+ The Cubs have used their bullpen heavily in the first two games of this series and they’ve posted the 7th worst WHIP (1.57) over the last week.

+ Braves have been the #2 home offense this season, averaging 5.87 runs/gm.

- Stroman is a better pitcher than what he’s been showing in recent weeks -- he also doesn’t give up many home runs and has posted an excellent 0.53 HR/9 Rate this season, which ranks 2nd among all MLB pitchers with at least 130.0 IP.

- As usual, the core Braves bats are very expensive.

Favorite ATL Bats: Ronald Acuña Jr., Ozzie Albies, Matt Olson

Bargain Bat: Marcell Ozuna

Secondary Non-Coors Stacks

Chicago Cubs vs. AJ Smith-Shawver (RHP), ATL

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Luke Weaver (RHP), NYY

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Texas Rangers vs. Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA

+ Every Rangers hitter has a < 5% pOwn%.

+ We’re probably looking at a fairly low-scoring game here, but I believe you can still get some strong production out of a smaller two or three-man Rangers stack.

+ Gilbert has not been incredibly sharp over his last few games and heads in with a 4.25 ERA and 1.35 WHIP L5 Starts.

+ Gilbert just faced this Rangers lineup five days ago -- the odds can often fall in the favor of the offense when facing the same SP within the span of a week.

+ Rangers have been extremely hot vs. RHPs over the last week, especially in the power metrics: .275 AVG (6th), .943 OPS (1st), .393 wOBA (1st), .324 ISO (1st), 44.0% HardContact% (1st), 27.5% HR/FB Rate (1st), and 152 wRC+ (1st).

- T-Mobile Park has been the #1 least hitter-friendly ballpark.

- Mariners possess a top-tier bullpen.

Favorite TEX Bats: Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, Adolis Garcia

Bargain Bat: Evan Carter

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B Freddie Freeman, LAD | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.6k | vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), COL

OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Chris Bassitt (RHP), TOR

OF Julio Rodriguez, SEA | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Jordan Montgomery (LHP), TEX

1B Cody Bellinger, CHC | DK: $6k, FD: $3.8k | vs. AJ Smith-Shawver (RHP), ATL

2B Marcus Semien, TEX | DK: $5.9k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA

2B Ozzie Albies, ATL | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Marcus Stroman (RHP), CHC

SS Francisco Lindor, NYM | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Jesus Luzardo (LHP), MIA

OF Jorge Soler, MIA | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.2k | vs. David Peterson (LHP), NYM

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Luke Weaver (RHP), NYY

OF Nolan Jones, COL | DK: $4.7k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Ryan Yarbrough (LHP), LAD

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Evan Carter, TEX | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA

SS JP Crawford, SEA | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Jordan Montgomery (LHP), TEX

1B Brandon Belt, TOR | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Luke Weaver (RHP), NYY

C Jonah Heim, TEX | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA

OF David Peralta, LAD | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), COL

2B Brendan Rodgers, COL | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Ryan Yarbrough (LHP), LAD

2B/SS Jon Berti, MIA | DK: $3k, FD: $2.4k | vs. David Peterson (LHP), NYM

OF Sean Bouchard, COL | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Ryan Yarbrough (LHP), LAD

3B Miles Mastrobuoni, CHC | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.3k | vs. AJ Smith-Shawver (RHP), ATL

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

No HR Calls today but be sure to participate in the Touchdown Calls for tonight’s Thursday Night Football match-up between the Lions and Packers!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Bryce Harper MORE than 7.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

Evan Carter MORE than 0.5 Total Bases

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!