Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 9/28 | Entering the Final Week of the Regular Season!

September 28, 2022

One more week of regular season MLB action remains so let's keep riding this cash machine all the way to the end!

Penned By: Ryan Humphries, @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

We enter the final week of the regular season, and another 12-game main slate meanders its way onto the docket today! There is a good balance between strong pitching and viable stack options with plenty of ways to go about attacking this slate. Keep in mind, late-season MLB DFS can get a little wild and starting lineups can look drastically different than what they did even just a week or two ago. Be sure to factor this in when building a strategy for the slate! Let’s have some fun!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

PHI @ CHC (7:40 ET, 6.5 O/U): Winds blowing IN from left around 10 mph.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Brandon Woodruff (RHP), MIL | DK: $10k, FD: $10.6k | vs. STL

There are several aces to choose from on today’s slate, and a strong case can be made for, I’d say, the top five or six-priced pitchers on the board. Woodruff will get the highlight at the top today for a few reasons. To start, let’s look at the results from his last four dominant outings: 27.0 IP, 1.67 ERA, 2.42 xFIP, 0.78 WHIP, .161 opp AVG, 37.0% kRate. It’s tough to turn in better results than that. The Brewers are still scratching and clawing their way in the NL Wild Card race (1.5 GB from PHI) so they have some major motivation to win as many games down the final week-long stretch as they can. With their 6-2 win yesterday, the Cardinals clinched the NL Central and are locked into the third seed. That means we’ll likely see some of the STL studs take a seat today to grab some extra rest ahead of the postseason. Also, it isn’t as if the Cardinals were crushing recently anyway as they ranked 25th vs. RHPs in the last two weeks with a 72 wRC+. Finally, Woodruff has had noticeably better splits when pitching at home where he averages +31.3% more FPPG. All signs point towards Woodruff having another sharp outing today.

Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI | DK: $9.4k, FD: $10.5k | @ HOU

Talk about another guy that has been absolutely dealing. Gallen has been borderline unhittable for nearly two months! Going back to August 8th, Gallen has made nine starts (60.2 IP) and has come away with a ludicrous 0.89 ERA, 2.30 xFIP, 0.61 WHIP, .131 opp AVG, and 35.1% kRate. The obvious concern with him stems from the Astros match-up. However, the Astros have a middle-of-the-pack 103 wRC+ vs. RHPs in the last two weeks (ranks 15th), and Gallen recently dominated the mighty Dodgers lineup six days ago (8.0 IP, 2 H, 0 BB, 1 ER, 13 K!!!). Since folks will be hesitant to play a pitcher against this Astros offense, Gallen will be a huge leverage play as he checks in with a 5% pOwn% whereas guys like Cole, Verlander, Woodruff, and Nola all have at least a 23% pOwn%.

George Kirby (RHP), SEA | DK: $8.4k, FD: $9.2k | vs. TEX

Kirby got ambushed by Oakland in his last start, but Oakland seems to be doing that to quite a few quality starters lately. I wouldn’t hold it against him considering how solid he has been since the beginning of August. In that time, he’s made nine starts (46.2 IP) and has boasted a 2.89 ERA, 3.13 xFIP, 1.16 WHIP, and 26.7% kRate. He came away with at least 18 DKFP/32 FDFP in seven of those nine starts. When facing RHPs on the road over the last month, the Rangers have managed only a .212 AVG and 72 wRC+ while striking out 26.5% of the time. Seattle has a fairly comfortable 3.5-game lead over Baltimore for the final AL Wild Card berth, but they haven’t clinched anything yet, so motivation to perform well should be a non-issue with them today. Kirby will be a worthy mid-range target on today’s slate.

Also Consider:

Justin Verlander (RHP), HOU | DK: $10.5k, FD: $11.2k | vs. ARI

Aaron Nola (RHP), PHI | DK: $9.7k, FD: $10.3k | @ CHC

Jake Odorizzi (RHP), ATL | DK: $5.4k, FD: $6.9k | vs. WAS

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Atlanta Braves vs. Josiah Gray (RHP), WAS

It is different guys in the lineup doing the damage each game, but the Braves continue to dominate Nationals pitching. In 707 plate appearances against Washington this season, Atlanta has rocked a .371 wOBA, .235 ISO, and 138 wRC+. They’ll get to face the struggling Josiah Gray on the mound today who has a 7.03 ERA, 6.36 xFIP, 1.85 WHIP, 12.6% kRate, and 2.20 HR/9 Rate over his last five starts. Gray has been very reliant on strikeouts this season, but that kRate has clearly dwindled in recent weeks. The Braves will look to get to Gray early and often. They’ve also shown that they can do plenty of damage against this Nationals bullpen as well. The Braves are in a dead heat with the Mets in the NL East standings so each and every remaining game carries huge postseason seeding implications.

WAS Bullpen Rating: 3/10

Favorite ATL Bats: Michael Harris II, Ronald Acuna Jr., Travis d’Arnaud | Sneaky Bat: Orlando Arcia (2% pOwn%)

Los Angeles Angels vs. Adrian Martinez (RHP), OAK

Martinez (6.10 ERA, 4.22 xFIP, 1.52 WHIP) is one of the lower-quality starters on this slate, and he’s very generous when it comes to giving up home runs. He has a slate-worst 21.8% HR/FB Rate this season and has allowed a >2.1 HR/9 Rate to both RHBs and LHBs. The A’s bullpen has also allowed an MLB-high .291 AVG in the L2Wks. Both teams in this game are playing for nothing but pride at this point but there are some high upside LAA hitters that are stack-worthy this evening.

OAK Bullpen Rating: 2/10

Favorite LAA Bats: Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Taylor Ward | Sneaky Bat: Livian Soto (6% pOwn%)

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Chicago White Sox vs. Josh Winder (RHP), MIN

Every CWS hitter currently checks in with a 5% pOwn% or lower today. However, they do draw a nice match-up with Josh Winder, who owns a slate-worst 4.95 xFIP and a 10.9% Barrel% (also the highest figure on the slate). The Twins bullpen has not been great recently and the White Sox have been a borderline top 10 offense over the last month. It is a riskier stack but there is some low-owned upside with some of these guys.

MIN Bullpen Rating: 4/10

Favorite CWS Bats: Eloy Jimenez, Jose Abreu, Gavin Sheets | Sneaky Bat: Elvis Andrus (1% pOwn%)

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $6.3k, FD: $5k | vs. Mitch White (RHP), TOR

OF Mike Trout | DK: $6k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Adrian Martinez (RHP), OAK

1B Pete Alonso | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Jesus Luzardo (LHP), MIA

3B Rafael Devers | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Dean Kremer (RHP), BAL

OF Eloy Jimenez | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Josh Winder (RHP), MIN

1B Joey Meneses | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Jake Odorizzi (RHP), ATL

OF Michael Harris II | DK: $4.9k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Josiah Gray (RHP), WAS

OF Anthony Santander | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3k | vs. Rich Hill (LHP), BOS

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

1B/3B JD Davis | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Jose Urena (RHP), COL

OF Oswaldo Cabrera | DK: $3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Mitch White (RHP), TOR

OF Seth Brown | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Michael Lorenzen (RHP), LAA

2B Orlando Arcia | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2k | vs. Josiah Gray (RHP), WAS

OF Eddie Rosario | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Josiah Gray (RHP), WAS

1B Triston Casas | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Dean Kremer (RHP), BAL

OF Conner Capel | DK: $2.1k, FD: $2k | vs. Michael Lorenzen (RHP), LAA

SS Livian Soto | DK: $2k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Adrian Martinez (RHP), OAK

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Eloy Jimenez | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Josh Winder (RHP), MIN

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you’ll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a one-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Brandon Woodruff OVER 7.5 Strikeouts | +104 (FanDuel) | 2.0 Units

This is a lofty K prop but Woodruff has racked up double-digit strikeouts in three straight starts and four of his last six. He’s also on his home mound this evening where he has posted much better strikeout splits this season: 35.4% kRate at home, 25.9% kRate on the road. As mentioned above in the pitching DFS section, the Cardinals are locked into the third seed in the NL playoffs after clinching their division yesterday, so they’ll be rolling out a slightly watered-down lineup today. The Brewers are still playing for their postseason lives so they’ll need another big performance from Woodruff today. I believe he’ll deliver 8+ Ks in this match-up.

Michael Harris II OVER 0.5 RBI | +165 (DraftKings) | 1.75 Units

Back to the well with this prop, why not? Harris delivered a couple more RBIs yesterday, and I like his chances to bat in at least one run again today. In the month of September, Harris has come up incredibly clutch with runners in scoring position, hitting .417 with 12 RBI. He has been bumped up from 5th to 3rd in the lineup today but I suspect he’ll see some more RBI opportunities today against Washington RHP Josiah Gray, who has really struggled lately. Gray's last five starts have yielded a 7.03 ERA, 6.36 xFIP, 1.85 WHIP, 12.6% kRate, and 2.20 HR/9 Rate. In that same span against LHBs (like Harris), Josiah Gray has allowed a .342 AVG, .488 wOBA, 2.88 WHIP, and 3.20 HR/9 Rate.

🆕 Props Edge+ 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props Edge+ for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!