Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 9/27 | Tuesdays Are For Takedowns!

September 27, 2022

With no football action today, I know a lot of you are looking to hop back on the MLB DFS late-season grind so let's crush it!

Penned By: Ryan Humphries, @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

Main Slate Rundown 🏟

The MLB takes center stage as the main DFS attraction today. Late-season antics abound and we have to be aware that this is the time of year when many teams aren’t rolling out their most competitive lineups so plenty of relatively unknown players are seeing the field. There is a lot to go over for this 12-game main slate so let’s hop on the wagon and get rolling!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

MIA @ NYM (7:10 ET, 7 O/U): Winds blowing OUT to right at 10 mph.

BAL @ BOS (7:10 ET, 9 O/U): Light winds blowing OUT to center.

PHI @ CHC (7:40 ET, 6.5 O/U): Rain should hold off until after the game. Chilly conditions with temps in the low-50s and crosswinds blowing left to right at 15 mph.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Zack Wheeler (RHP), PHI | DK: $10.1k, FD: $10k | @ CHC

There is some inherent risk here due to Wheeler’s unknown pitch count restrictions. He returned from the 15-day IL last Wednesday to throw just 58 pitches across 4.0 IP. While he may not handle his usual 95+ pitch workload, I imagine he should be good for 80-90 pitches. Also, when in doubt, look at where the sportsbooks have the total in this game -- only a 6.5 O/U here. While the total is affected by the cold temps and strong side winds at Wrigley Field tonight, it also feels as if Vegas believes Wheeler won’t be too limited. The Phillies are jockeying for position in the NL Wild Card race so this is an important final stretch of baseball for them. Wheeler (2.98 ERA, 3.16 xFIP, 26.5% kRate) is a stud pitcher, and he should do well in this match-up against a Cubs offense that has a very poor 72 wRC+ and 28.8% kRate vs. RHPs in the last two weeks.

Editor Note: News came out that the pitch count is 75-80 Pitches

Carlos Carrasco (RHP), NYM | DK: $9.3k, FD: $9.5k | vs. MIA

The Mets are also highly motivated to hang onto their 1.5-game divisional lead over the Braves, so they’ll look for a strong outing from Carrasco this evening. In four starts (25.2 IP) against the Marlins this season, Carrasco has boasted a 2.10 ERA, 2.93 xFIP, 1.13 WHIP, and 24.8% kRate. The Marlins have not been horrible lately; more often than not, they’ve scored 3-to-5 runs in recent weeks. Overall, they’re still a bottom 10 offense, and we should expect around six strong innings from Carrasco in this game.

 

Logan Webb (RHP), SF | DK: $7.2k, FD: $9.6k | vs. COL

Outside of a down game against the Dodgers, Webb has been sharp down the season's final stretch. Across his last five starts (28.0 IP), Webb has maintained a 2.57 ERA, 2.96 xFIP, 1.00 WHIP, and 23.0% kRate. In that same stretch, he has given up just one home run and three walks, resulting in a 0.30 HR/9 Rate and 2.7% BB%. He also couldn’t ask for a better match-up. Over the last month, when the Rockies have faced RHPs outside of Coors Field, they have a hideous .176 AVG, .244 wOBA, 53 wRC+, and 30.7% kRate -- ranking them dead last in each category. Webb faced them six days ago *in Coors Field* and surrendered just one hit across 5.1 IP. The concern is that Webb’s workload is being monitored down the season's final stretch. He threw just 66 pitches in that last game, though the Giants did have a fairly comfortable 4-0 lead at that point so perhaps they were just being extra cautious. Tough to say. But Webb will be a worthy SP2 candidate on DraftKings at $7,200, I would understand if FanDuel players would prefer to look elsewhere given his $9,600 price tag.

Also Consider:

Robbie Ray (LHP), SEA | DK: $10.3k, FD: $10.2k | vs. TEX

Patrick Sandoval (LHP), LAA | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.9k | vs. OAK

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Atlanta Braves vs. Paolo Espino (RHP), WAS

The Braves are looking to close out the season strong and potentially jump the Mets atop the NL East. They’ll need to take care of business against the Nationals first and that will start with doing some damage against Paolo Espino. The Braves just saw Espino’s pitches six days ago and, over his last five starts, he has posted a poor 1.58 WHIP and allowed a high 37.3% HardContact%. There is plenty of power throughout the Braves lineup today and they come in ranking 4th against RHPs in the L2Wks with a 116 wRC+. The Braves have also simply dominated Nationals pitching this season to the tune of a .370 wOBA, .230 ISO, 138 wRC+, and a low 19.7% kRate.

WAS Bullpen Rating: 3/10

Favorite ATL Bats: Michael Harris II, Austin Riley, Ronald Acuna Jr. | Sneaky Bat: Orlando Arcia (<1% pOwn%)

New York Yankees vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

Okay Judge, just hit a couple of homers tonight so we can stop talking about it. It’s possible in this match-up with Berrios and a shaky Blue Jays bullpen. Berrios has a slate-worst 1.71 WHIP over his last five starts and, though he does pitch better at home, the Yankees have a chance to ambush him early today. The Yankees lead the MLB with a .204 ISO against RHPs in the L2WKs and they’re second with a .343 wOBA and 127 wRC+. Toronto’s bullpen has struggled to a 1.51 WHIP in the L2Wks (2nd worst) so if New York can knock Berrios out early, they may continue to see favorable match-ups.

TOR Bullpen Rating: 3/10

Favorite NYY Bats: Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres, Anthony Rizzo | Sneaky Bat: Oswaldo Cabrera (<5% pOwn%)

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Seattle Mariners vs. Jesus Tinoco/Tyson Miller (RHPs), TEX

The Mariners are banged up on offense with injuries to Julio Rodriguez (IL), Eugenio Suarez (IL), Cal Raleigh (DTD), and Jesse Winker (DTD). Those are four key bats on this team so many folks will likely avoid stacking up Mariners today. However, they’ll get to go up against what is essentially a Rangers bullpen game. Jesus Tinoco will serve as the opener while Tyson Miller should operate as the bulk reliever. Miller only has a total of eight innings pitched in the MLB and has racked up a 10.13 ERA and 7.87 xFIP in that brief amount of time. He doesn’t have any overly impressive numbers from the minor leagues this season and he is prone to giving up home runs. I don’t mind turning to a few of these low-owned Mariners hitters this evening.

TEX Bullpen Rating: 5/10

Favorite SEA Bats: Ty France, Mitch Haniger, JP Crawford | Sneaky Bat: Jarred Kelenic (1% pOwn%)

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $6.2k, FD: $5k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

OF Mike Trout | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.4k | vs. James Kaprielian (RHP), OAK

1B Pete Alonso | DK: $5.4k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Pablo Lopez (RHP), MIA

2B Jose Altuve | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Zach Davies (RHP), ARI

OF Cedric Mullins | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3k | vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), BOS

OF Michael Harris II | DK: $4.7k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Paolo Espino (RHP), WAS

1B/3B Ty France | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3k | vs. Rangers Bullpen

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

1B Ryan Mountcastle | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), BOS

3B/SS Gunnar Henderson | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), BOS

OF Oswaldo Cabrera | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

OF Seth Brown | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Patrick Sandoval (LHP), LAA

2B Orlando Arcia | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2k | vs. Paolo Espino (RHP), WAS

SS Livian Soto | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2.1k | vs. James Kaprielian (RHP), OAK

OF Conner Capel | DK: $2.1k, FD: $2k | vs. Patrick Sandoval (LHP), LAA

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Michael Harris II | DK: $4.7k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Paolo Espino (RHP), WAS

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you’ll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a one-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Zack Wheeler OVER 4.5 Strikeouts | -164 (FanDuel) | 2.5 Units

Wheeler gets pinned with this generously low strikeout prop due to his relatively unknown workload today. Considering the Phillies are still fighting to hang on to a Wild Card bid, my best guess is that Wheeler will at least be good for around 80-85 pitches today. That should be enough time to accumulate 5+ strikeouts against a Cubs offense that has struck out to the tune of a 28.8% kRate (vs. RHPs) in the last couple of weeks.

Michael Harris II OVER 0.5 RBI | +185 (PointsBet) | 1.75 Units

Love the value here on this Harris RBI prop today. He has 14 RBI in his last 20 games and he has been moved into the five-hole in today’s Braves lineup. The five-hole hitter is always a great spot to see some RBI opportunities and the Braves should get some solid traffic on the base paths in this match-up with Paolo Espino and a shoddy Nationals bullpen. I’m also rolling with him as my “Home Run Call of the Day” so, if he comes through with a dinger, then he can just cash this prop all by himself.

🆕 Props Edge+ 🆕

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!