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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

We’re set up with a solid-looking eight-game midweek slate today! For DraftKings players, keep in mind that game two of the MIA @ NYM doubleheader shows up on the slate, but players will not accrue fantasy points. We may not be staring at the sexiest of slates today but with some decent pitching and hitting/stack options to choose from, we can make this a profitable day. As a reminder, keep an eye out for some odd starting lineups since many teams have little to play for over these final few days of the regular season. Now, let’s go out there and crack the code! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• OAK @ MIN (7:40 ET): Chance for some light precipitation but nothing problematic. Mid-60s temps and light 5-10 mph winds IN from center. Slight bump to pitchers.

• LAD @ COL (8:40 ET): 10+ mph winds OUT to left.

• TEX @ LAA (9:38 ET): 5-10 mph winds OUT to left/center.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Pablo Lopez (RHP), MIN | DK: $11.4k, FD: $11.3k | vs. OAK

We’re certainly spotlighting some chalk here with Pablo Lopez taking on the A’s at home. Nonetheless, Lopez is probably the most likely guy to put up double-digit strikeouts today and, if he does that, he’s probably landing in the optimal lineup. He hasn’t consistently been pitching at his best over the last month, but he’s also not far removed from throwing eight two-hit shutout innings against the Mets where he piled on 14 Ks. He has rocked a 30.0% kRate at home this season and the A’s come in sputtering with a .208 AVG, 72 wRC+, and 27.8% kRate against RHPs over the last two weeks. If we look at their road splits against RHPs in that recent two-week sample size, their averages get even uglier -- .161 AVG, 26 wRC+, and 38.2% kRate! It’s a prime spot for Lopez to show why he’s deserving of these lofty DFS salaries.

Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR | DK: $8.6k, FD: $9.9k | vs. NYY

It’s do-or-die time for a Blue Jays team that is looking to hang onto a +1.5 game lead in the AL Wild Card race. They took a potentially costly 0-2 loss in the opening game of this series yesterday and now they’ll have to try to find a way to beat Gerrit Cole and avoid losing further ground on their slight wild card lead. So, they’ll be looking for a strong start out of Berrios today. Berrios hasn’t had those infamously drastic home/away splits this year that he has shown in seasons past, but he has been marginally better at home where he has maintained a 3.11 ERA, 3.98 xFIP, 1.15 WHIP, and 23.9% kRate while averaging +20% more FPPG.

The Yankees have been precisely a league-average offense against RHPs in the last two weeks based on their 100 wRC+ in that stretch. They’re also prone to strikeouts and have posted a 25.3% kRate (10th highest) vs. RHPs L2 Weeks. If Berrios can work around Aaron Judge, then there aren’t many other dangerous bats to worry about in this lineup.

Emmet Sheehan (RHP), LAD | DK: $6.2k, FD: $6.7k | @ COL

The value pitching is not great on this slate so we’ll be taking a gamble here by going to a cheap Coors Field pitcher. If this game was being played in LA, then Sheehan would be a much more obvious value SP target. Over his last six appearances, he has impressed with a 3.24 ERA, 4.14 xFIP, 0.96 WHIP, .165 opp AVG, and 33.3% kRate. The opponent batting average and kRate have been excellent, unfortunately, he has had some troubles with the long ball and has a 1.80 HR/9 Rate over that 25.0 IP sample size. Coors Field is the last place you want to trust a guy who leans toward being a flyball pitcher (Sheehan: 54.2% Flyball%), but Sheehan’s strikeout potential could help off-set any run damage… as long as it’s not too much damage that gets done. The Dodgers (-220 ML) are also heavy favorites today, so Sheehan could easily be in line for a win bonus if he can cover 5.0+ innings.

The Rockies continue to strike out at a high rate, putting up a 27.8% kRate (4th highest) against RHPs L2 Weeks while posting a subpar 83 wRC+ (ranks 24th). It’s still a gamble, no doubt, especially with those 10+ mph winds blowing out to left field at Coors Field today. That said, Sheehan will check in with very low ownership and carries some sneaky 20 DKFP/35 FDFP upside.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Gerrit Cole (RHP), NYY | DK: $12k, FD: $11.1k | @ TOR

Framber Valdez (LHP), HOU | DK: $10.2k, FD: $10.6k | @ SEA

Dane Dunning (RHP), TEX | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.2k | @ LAA

Zack Thompson (LHP), STL | DK: $5.9k, FD: $5.9k | @ MIL

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Noah Davis (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Emmet Sheehan (RHP), LAD

Non-Coors Stacks

Minnesota Twins vs. Joey Estes (RHP), OAK

+ Twins: 4.5 implied runs (ranks 3rd among non-Coors teams).

+ Estes only has one MLB start under his best, which came against Seattle last Wednesday -- he did not fare well, giving up six hits, including three HRs, and 5 ER across 4.2 IP.

+ Estes posted lackluster results in 32.2 IP in Triple-A this year -- 5.23 ERA, 6.04 xFIP, and a lofty 2.76 HR/9 Rate.

+ Against RHPs over the last month, the Twins have ranked 6th in OPS, 5th in wOBA, 6th in ISO, 7th in HardContact%, and 5th in wRC+.

+ The A’s bullpen has posted a 5.29 xFIP over the last month, 4th worst in MLB.

+ There is no shortage of affordable bats within the Twins lineup.

- The Twins continue to be without three of their best hitters -- Royce Lewis, Carlos Correa, and Byron Buxton -- all on the IL.

- The Twins have the 7th highest kRate (25.0%) against RHPs over the last month.

Favorite MIN Bats: Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, Matt Wallner

Bargain Bat: Donovan Solano

Atlanta Braves vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), CHC

+ Braves: 4.9 implied runs (ranks 1st among non-Coors teams).

+ Taillon is a solid starter but he has averaged -23.9% less FPPG on the road and has given up 10 barreled balls L30 Days (bottom 5th percentile).

+ In 61 PA vs. the current Braves roster, Taillon has allowed a .327 AVG, .378 wOBA, and has only a 19.7% kRate.

+ Braves vs. RHPs L30 Days: .289 AVG (2nd), .879 OPS (2nd), .373 wOBA (2nd), .238 ISO (1st), 37.8% HardContact% (3rd), and 134 wRC+ (2nd).

+ The Braves have been the #2 home offense this season, averaging 5.87 runs/gm.

- The Cubs have had a top-10 bullpen over the last month.

- Core Braves bats continue to be very expensive.

Favorite ATL Bats: Matt Olson, Ronald Acuña Jr., Ozzie Albies

Bargain Bat: Orlando Arcia

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

San Diego Padres vs. Sean Manaea (LHP), SF

+ 8-of-9 projected hitters in the Padres lineup have a ≤ 10% pOwn%.

+ Manaea has strung together three solid starts recently but, on the year, he has been a fairly average pitcher who has put up a 4.51 ERA and 4.12 xFIP.

+ The Padres have been outstanding against LHPs L2 Weeks (143 PA), ranking 1st in all of the following metrics: .372 AVG, 1.073 OPS, .453 wOBA, and 192 wRC+.

+ Padres: 4.3 implied runs (not great, but still ranks T-4th among non-Coors teams).

-/+ The Giants bullpen has been fairly mediocre over the last month -- they’ve had the 10th worst ERA (4.59) and the 5th worst WHIP (1.54) but also the 10th best xFIP (4.16) and 8th best HR/9 Rate (0.89).

- As mentioned, Manaea has looked solid since re-entering the rotation three starts ago and he averages +45.2% more FPPG at home.

Favorite SD Bats: Xander Bogaerts, Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis Jr.

Bargain Bat: Matthew Batten

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B Freddie Freeman, LAD | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.7k | vs. Noah Davis (RHP), COL

1B Matt Olson, ATL | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), CHC

OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

2B Marcus Semien, TEX | DK: $5.8k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Griffin Canning (RHP), LAA

OF Yordan Alvarez, HOU | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Bryce Miller (RHP), SEA

2B Nico Hoerner, CHC | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Darius Vines (RHP), ATL

OF Nolan Jones, COL | DK: $4.8k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Emmet Sheehan (RHP), LAD

C William Contreras, MIL | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Zack Thompson (LHP), STL

SS Xander Bogaerts, SD | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Sean Manaea (LHP), SF

2B Thairo Estrada, SF | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Matt Waldron (RHP), SD

OF Max Kepler, MIN | DK: $4.3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Joey Estes (RHP), OAK

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

2B Edouard Julien, MIN | DK: $4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Joey Estes (RHP), OAK

OF Jason Heyward, LAD | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Noah Davis (RHP), COL

OF Evan Carter, TEX | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Griffin Canning (RHP), LAA

C Logan O’Hoppe, LAA | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Dane Dunning (RHP), TEX

OF Matt Wallner, MIN | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Joey Estes (RHP), OAK

1B LaMonte Wade Jr., SF | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Matt Waldron (RHP), SD

3B/OF Willi Castro, MIN | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Joey Estes (RHP), OAK

2B/3B Matthew Batten, SD | DK: $3k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Sean Manaea (LHP), SF

1B Donovan Solano, MIN | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Joey Estes (RHP), OAK

3B Miles Mastrobuoni, CHC | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Darius Vines (RHP), ATL

2B/3B Michael Stefanic, LAA | DK: $2k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Dane Dunning (RHP), TEX

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Estevan Florial MORE than 0.5 Total Bases

Emmet Sheehan MORE than 4.5 Pitcher Strikeouts

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!