Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 9/26 | Tackling a Mini Monday Slate!

September 26, 2022

Not a ton of baseball action to be had today but we'll still look to crush this small MLB slate!

Penned By: Ryan Humphries, @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

Main Slate Rundown 🏟

What is this, a slate for ants? Only four games land on the Monday schedule and be aware that this one will get going at 6:35 ET! We’ll keep things short and tidy today before getting back to the big slate grind tomorrow. Each MLB team only has about nine or ten games remaining on their regular season schedule so let’s keep the baseball cash machine flowing while there is still time!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

CIN @ PIT (6:35 ET, 7.5 O/U): Low chance for some rain. Winds blowing OUT to left at 10 mph.

BAL @ BOS (7:10 ET, 9.5 O/U): Winds blowing OUT to left at 10 mph.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Bryce Elder (RHP), ATL | DK: $8.4k, FD: $8.9k | @ WAS

Elder has had a limited role with Atlanta this season -- just 40.0 IP in nine appearances. He has maintained a respectable 3.38 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and a slightly below-average 20.8% kRate while forcing a 48.6% Groundball Rate. He has really impressed in his last three big league starts where he covered 18.2 IP and pitched to a low 0.96 ERA, 3.16 xFIP, 0.86 WHIP, .141 opp AVG, and a 30.1% kRate. In those three games, he faced Miami twice and Washington once, so it isn’t as if his level of competition has been strong. But he’s back up against Washington once again and they’ve had some offensive struggles as of late. Over the last two weeks against RHPs, they rank 25th in the MLB with a 78 wRC+ while striking out 25.4% of the time. Elder did face this same offense five days ago, which always leads to some hesitation with any starting pitcher facing the same opponent twice in such a short time frame. However, the Braves (-245) are locked in as the heaviest favorites on the slate and Elder seems to have found a groove lately so he’ll be a worthy DFS option on today’s small slate.

Roansy Contreras (RHP), PIT | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.2k | vs. CIN

As you can tell, we’re not exactly set up with the best pitching options today. Contreras wouldn’t normally draw much attention on a larger slate, but he does appear to have some decent potential today. He’s been pretty sharp across his last six starts (32.0 IP) where he has come away with a 3.09 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, .194 opp AVG, and 23.0% kRate. He posted those numbers against some strong competition, too, as you can see on his player card below. The Reds are always worth attacking, especially when they are outside the confines of their extremely hitter-friendly home ballpark. Over the last two weeks against RHPs, the Reds rank dead last in the MLB with a .191 AVG, .248 wOBA, and 50 wRC+. Essentially, based on the wRC+ metric, they’ve been half as productive as an average team in this recent two-week stretch. Contreras had his best fantasy performance of the season against the Reds back on July 7th (6.0 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 1 ER, 7 K -- 26.5 DKFP, 46 FDFP). Whether he has a similar outing today is uncertain but he will have a solid chance to post a 20 DKFP/35 FDFP kind of performance.

Also Consider:

Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR | DK: $10.3k, FD: $10.2k | vs. NYY

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Atlanta Braves vs. Cory Abbott (RHP), WAS

As someone who watches nearly every Braves game, I have to say that the offense has been for a couple of weeks now. But they will have a chance to tee off on an inexperienced low-quality starter in Cory Abbott. Abbott owns a slate-worst 5.86 xFIP on the season to go along with a 2.08 HR/9 Rate and a lofty 61.9% Flyball Rate. Over the last month against RHPs, the Braves do rank 3rd in the MLB with a 16.7% HR/FB Rate. The Braves also went up against Abbott a week ago and hung four runs on six hits (one HR) and two walks on him across four innings.

WAS Bullpen Rating: 4/10

Favorite ATL Bats: Michael Harris II, Austin Riley, Ronald Acuna Jr. | Sneaky Bat: Eddie Rosario (15% pOwn%)

Baltimore Orioles vs. Connor Seabold (RHP), BOS

Seabold only has four starts and 16.1 IP under his belt this season so it isn’t a huge sample size to go off of. But in that time, he has been shelled, allowing a .395 AVG, .481 wOBA, and he has racked up an awful 10.47 ERA and 2.20 WHIP. Winds will be blowing out towards left field at 10 mph in Fenway tonight, which may make the Green Monster a little less monstrous. The Red Sox bullpen has also posted a 4.86 xFIP in the last two weeks (ranks 2nd worst in MLB). This Orioles offense is a tough one to predict but they have plated at least six runs in three of their last five games and they’re still technically in the Wild Card hunt, so motivation should not be an issue.

BOS Bullpen Rating: 3/10

Favorite BAL Bats: Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Cedric Mullins | Sneaky Bat: Ryan Mountcastle (17% pOwn%)

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chase Anderson (RHP), CIN

This is not the worst spot to roll out a small Pirates stack. Chase Anderson (5.21 ERA, 4.52 xFIP, 1.11 WHIP) has stitched together some decent outings as of late but he’s still a guy who can get blown up early in games if he’s not bringing his best stuff. Still, it wouldn’t shock me if Anderson pitches decent across around five innings but he’ll be backed up by a bottom 10 ranked Reds bullpen. So, if the Pirates don’t necessarily beat Anderson up, they could surge late in the game against the Reds relievers.

CIN Bullpen Rating: 3/10

Favorite PIT Bats: Bryan Reynolds, Oneil Cruz, Jack Suwinski | Sneaky Bat: Ke’Bryan Hayes (7% pOwn%)

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $6.4k, FD: $5.1k | vs. Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR

OF George Springer | DK: $5.9k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Luis Severino (RHP), NYY

3B Rafael Devers | DK: $5.8k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), BAL

1B Joey Meneses | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Bryce Elder (RHP), ATL

OF Bryan Reynolds | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3k | vs. Chase Anderson (RHP), CIN

OF Michael Harris II | DK: $4.7k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Cory Abbott (RHP), WAS

C Adley Rutschman | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Connor Seabold (RHP), BOS

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

1B Ryan Mountcastle | DK: $4k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Connor Seabold (RHP), BOS

3B/SS Gunnar Henderson | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Connor Seabold (RHP), BOS

OF Oswaldo Cabrera | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR

OF Eddie Rosario | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Cory Abbott (RHP), WAS

OF Stuart Fairchild | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Roansy Contreras (RHP), PIT

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Small slate so let’s just roll with one prop today…

Bryce Elder to Record the Win: Yes | +106 (Caesars) | 2.0 Units

Elder fell one out short of posting his third consecutive quality start last week. Despite pitching very well, he didn’t land a win in any of his last three starts due to a lack of run support. I believe the Braves offense can help him out in that department today as they take on a low-quality starter in Cory Abbott (4.85 ERA, 5.86 xFIP, 1.38 WHIP). Elder is likely to make it through at least five innings of work as well. As long as he has the lead and the Braves bullpen (1.16 ERA, .163 opp AVG L2Wks) continues to hold strong, he should be a good bet to land a win in this game where Atlanta is a heavy -245 outright favorite.

🆕 Props Edge+ 🆕

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!