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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Including today’s games, we are down to six days remaining in the MLB regular season. It’s always a little bittersweet once we hit this point but the playoffs should be a blast and, of course, we have NFL and college football in full swing along with the NBA, NHL, and PGA seasons sparking up in the not-too-distant future.

Now we’ll look ahead to today’s jam-packed 11-game main slate. Overall, we’ll have some strong pitching options to choose from and plenty of worthy hitters/stacks to target. Seven teams head in with at least a 4.9 implied run total and we’ve got Coors Field back in play as well (only on DK though). Let’s have some fun and best of luck as we near the end of the season and head into the playoffs!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• TB @ BOS (7:10 ET): Temps in the mid-50s with 5-10 mph winds blowing IN from center. This is typically a great hitter’s park but the weather conditions certainly favor the pitchers today.

• MIA @ NYM (7:10 ET): More mid-50s temps here with stiff 15 mph winds blowing IN from center. There will also be intermittent periods of light rain throughout the game. The rain shouldn’t keep them from playing but keep an ear out closer to first pitch just in case. It’s a pretty miserable day to be at the ballpark but pitchers will get a bump with these conditions.

• OAK @ MIN (7:40 ET): Low-end chance of a delay/late start.

• ARI @ CWS (7:40 ET): This will be the primary game to watch out for. Rain moves in around first pitch and could trigger a late start. If it hangs around too long, a PPD would not be out of the realm of possibilities. Cool with 10 mph winds blowing mostly left-to-right, a bit IN from left.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Zach Eflin (RHP), TB | DK: $10.3k, FD: $10.7k | @ BOS

The clear top pitching option today would be Kevin Gausman (DK: $11.5k, FD: $11.1k) facing off with the Yankees but he’s also looking like some mega chalk with a 40+% pOwn% on both DraftKings and FanDuel. I have very few issues pivoting away from Gausman and going down to Eflin at much lower ownership -- 6% pOwn% on DK, 2% pOwn% on FD. Eflin has been pitching extremely well since the beginning of August (10 starts, 56.1 IP) -- in that time, he has boasted a 3.04 ERA, 2.99 xFIP, 1.03 WHIP, and 29.6% kRate. Fenway Park is not usually a ballpark you’d like to target pitchers at, but as touched on in the weather segment above, the conditions in Boston are very favorable for pitchers this evening.

The Red Sox have no postseason aspirations left to play for now that they are 9.5 games back in the AL wild card race. They have gone 2-8 over their last 10 games and have been one of the worst offenses in baseball against RHPs in recent weeks. Versus RHPs L2 Weeks, the Red Sox rank 29th with a 71 wRC+ and they’ve been striking out at a higher-than-average rate with a 23.2% kRate in that span. The Rays are still mathematically alive in the division race and have plenty of motivation to win this game tonight. Expect Eflin to pitch well against a Red Sox lineup that is essentially going through the motions down the final stretch.

Braxton Garrett (LHP), MIA | DK: $8.6k, FD: $9.4k | @ NYM

Speaking of teams that have something at stake, the Marlins currently sit one game back in the NL wild card standings so every game and win is extremely valuable for them over these next few days. They’ll be rolling out one of their best starters on the mound today with Braxton Garrett who enters on the heels of a pair of impressive outings where he combined for 12 scoreless innings (one unearned run) with 14 total Ks. He’ll be taking on this same Mets team in back-to-back starts, this time at Citi Field, where cool temps and 15 mph winds blowing in from center will provide prime pitching conditions. The Mets have been a very average offense against LHPs over the last month, ranking 18th with a 96 wRC+, and they’ve struck out 24.2% of the time (12th highest). It all adds up to Garrett being a solid DFS target out of the mid-range.

Michael King (RHP), NYY | DK: $6.6k, FD: $8.6k | @ TOR

It’s impossible to overlook Michael King at his current DFS salaries following what he has done since moving out of the bullpen and into a starting role. Since transitioning to a traditional starting position on August 24th (6 GS, 28.1 IP), King has posted some astounding numbers -- 1.27 ERA, 2.30 xFIP, 0.99 WHIP, 37.8% kRate, 3.6% BB%, and he hasn’t surrendered a single home run in that stretch. The Yankees may be out of the playoff picture, but continuing to audition King as a full-time starter for 2024 serves a valuable purpose.

King and the Yankees will look to play spoiler against a Blue Jays team that is currently +1.5 games up in their wild card race. Toronto has been stringing some wins together at the right time, going 7-3 over their last 10 games. However, they own a subpar 92 wRC+ (ranks 18th) vs. RHPs L2 Weeks to go along with a poor .223 AVG (ranks 22nd) and a middling 22.2% kRate. King just faced the Blue Jays in his last start and pitched an absolute gem, allowing one run and five hits across seven innings while racking up 13 strikeouts! Plenty of folks will be eyeing King in DFS today, especially as an SP2 candidate on DraftKings, but it’s hard to argue his recent results and he could easily end up being the best “fantasy point per dollar” pitcher on this slate.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR | DK: $11.5k, FD: $11.1k | vs. NYY

Bobby Miller (RHP), LAD | DK: $8.9k, FD: $8.8k | @ COL

Seth Lugo (RHP), SD | DK: $8.4k, FD: $8.8k | @ SF

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks (DK Main Slate Only)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Ryan Feltner (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Bobby Miller (RHP), LAD

Non-Coors Stacks

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Jose Urena (RHP), CWS

Note: Keep an eye on the weather for this game as we get closer to the scheduled first pitch (7:40 ET).

+ D-Backs: 4.9 implied runs (ranks T-2nd among non-Coors teams).

+ Urena is arguably the lowest-quality starter on this slate -- in eight starts this season, he owns a 7.27 ERA, 5.45 xFIP, 1.67 WHIP, .428 opp wOBA, and 3.12 HR/9 Rate.

+ The D-Backs are fighting for their playoff lives and have been hot recently, going 6-2 over their last eight and they’ve scored at least six runs on all six of those wins.

+ The White Sox bullpen has been terrible over the last month: 6.15 ERA, 5.07 xFIP, and 1.71 WHIP.

- The D-Backs have been subpar vs. RHPs L2 Weeks based on their 80 wRC+ (ranks 22nd).

- This is looking like a fairly chalky stack with five D-Backs hitters owning a 17+% pOwn%.

Favorite ARI Bats: Corbin Carroll, Christian Walker, Ketel Marte

Bargain Bat: Gabriel Moreno

Minnesota Twins vs. Paul Blackburn (RHP), OAK

+ Twins: 4.9 implied runs (ranks T-2nd among non-Coors teams).

+ After a fairly solid ‘23 campaign, the wheels have been starting to fall off for Blackburn as of late -- over his last five starts, he has posted a 5.32 ERA, 4.94 xFIP, 1.77 WHIP, .292 opp AVG, and .347 opp wOBA.

+ Against RHPs over the last month, the Twins rank 8th in OPS, 7th in wOBA, 6th in ISO, 6th in wRC+, and 7th in HardContact%.

+ The A’s bullpen has been pitching better as of late, but over the last month, they still own the 4th worst xFIP (5.23) in the MLB.

+ The Twins bats are all very affordable, pretty much from top to bottom of the lineup.

- The Twins strike out at a high clip -- 25.1% kRate vs. RHPs L30 Days (7th highest).

- Three of the Twins’ best hitters (Royce Lewis, Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton) are currently on the IL.

Favorite MIN Bats: Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler, Edouard Julien

Bargain Bat: Matt Wallner

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Houston Astros vs. George Kirby (RHP), SEA

+ Every Astros hitters has a ≤ 6% pOwn%.

+ Kirby is a strong starter but he has had less-than-stellar results over his last six outings: 5.56 ERA, .292 opp AVG, .349 opp wOBA, and 1.90 HR/9 Rate.

+ The Astros knocked around Mariners’ ace Luis Castillo (6.0 IP, 8 H, 5 ER) in yesterday’s game and have been dangerous against RHPs over the last two weeks: .834 OPS (4th), .357 wOBA (4th), .233 ISO (3rd), and 129 wRC+ (3rd).

+ The Astros have been MUCH better on the road where they have ranked second in the MLB, averaging 5.80 runs/gm (vs. 4.51 runs/gm at home, ranks 16th).

- T-Mobile Park has been the #1 least hitter-friendly ballpark this season.

- The Mariners boast one of the best bullpens in baseball, although, they have accounted for a middling 4.35 xFIP L30 Days.

- Astros: 3.7 implied runs (4th fewest on today’s slate).

Favorite HOU Bats: Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker

Bargain Bat: Mauricio Dubon

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Ronald Acuña Jr., ATL | DK: $6.9k, FD: $5k | vs. Justin Steele (LHP), CHC

SS Corey Seager, TEX | DK: $6.6k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Reid Detmers (LHP), LAA

OF Yordan Alvarez, HOU | DK: $5.8k, FD: $3.9k | vs. George Kirby (RHP), SEA

OF JD Martinez, LAD | DK: $5.7k, FD: N/A | vs. Ryan Feltner (RHP), COL

OF Corbin Carroll, ARI | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Jose Urena (RHP), CWS

OF Juan Soto, SD | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Kyle Harrison (LHP), SF

C William Contreras, MIL | DK: $5k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL

2B Jorge Polanco, MIN | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Paul Blackburn (RHP), OAK

OF Nolan Jones, COL | DK: $4.8k, FD: N/A | vs. Bobby Miller (RHP), LAD

2B Zack Gelof, OAK | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Bailey Ober (RHP), MIN

3B Jake Burger, MIA | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Joey Lucchesi (LHP), NYM

OF Josh Lowe, TB | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Tanner Houck (RHP), BOS

C Cal Raleigh, SEA | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Cristian Javier (RHP), HOU

OF Seiya Suzuki, CHC | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Bryce Elder (RHP), ATL

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Mark Canha, MIL | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL

OF Jason Heyward, LAD | DK: $3.7k, FD: N/A | vs. Ryan Feltner (RHP), COL

OF Matt Wallner, MIN | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Paul Blackburn (RHP), OAK

C Luis Campusano, SD | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Kyle Harrison (LHP), SF

2B/SS Jon Berti, MIA | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Joey Lucchesi (LHP), NYM

OF Tyrone Taylor, MIL | DK: $3k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL

C Gabriel Moreno, ARI | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Jose Urena (RHP), CWS

3B Miles Mastrobuoni, CHC | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Bryce Elder (RHP), ATL

2B/3B Michael Stefanic, LAA | DK: $2.1k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Cody Bradford (LHP), TEX

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Ronald Acuña Jr. MORE than 0.5 Runs

Juan Soto MORE than 7.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!