Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 9/23 | A Chaotic Friday Slate Approaches 👀

September 23, 2022

Let's get a good look at today's 12-game main slate where a wide range of outcomes are possible.

Penned By: Ryan Humphries, @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Happy Friday, folks! Another late-season Friday baseball slate rolls around and we’ll have our hands full with a dozen games on the docket this evening. It’s a busy Friday so let’s cut right to the chase and get into this thing!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

ATL @ PHI (7:05 ET, 7 O/U): Winds blowing IN from left at 10+ mph.

BOS @ NYY (7:05 ET, 7.5 O/U): Cooler temps in the upper-50s but winds will be blowing OUT to right near 15 mph. Might we see No. 61 tonight?

LAA @ MIN (8:10 ET, 6.5 O/U): This is the big trouble spot for the day. It’ll be chilly with temps in the 50s, winds blowing IN at 10-15 mph, and rainy throughout the evening. Looks like a delay is a strong possibility, and, given the overall unpleasantness of these conditions, a PPD is absolutely on the table as well. They may end up playing this game without major issues, but, unfortunately, the risk is high enough here to where I will avoid mentioning any players from this game in the newsletter.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Carlos Rodon (LHP), SF | DK: $10.3k, FD: $11k | @ ARI

The D-Backs have been miserable against southpaw pitching recently. In the last two weeks vs. LHPs (214 plate appearances), they're mustering up a meager .174 AVG, .214 wOBA, .109 ISO, and 33 wRC+. Take one-third of the production from the average team (against lefties L2Wks), and you’ll have the D-Backs offense. Outside of a poor outing against the Padres, Rodon has been excellent down the final stretch of the season. Over his last 10 starts (57.2 IP), he’s rolling with a 2.65 ERA, 2.54 xFIP, 0.85 WHIP, and a massive 36.9% kRate. Rodon figures to be worth spending up on today!

Chris Bassitt (RHP), OAK | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10.5k | @ OAK

Bassitt returns to his old stomping grounds at Oakland Coliseum for the first time since donning his new Mets uniform. He has shown some excellent upside in recent weeks and, despite a non-elite 23.3% kRate, this is a match-up where he could come away with 8-10 Ks. The A’s have been decent offensively, with a 101 wRC+ vs. RHPs in the last two weeks. However, in that same span, they’ve accumulated a huge 27.7% kRate, the third-highest in the MLB during that stretch. A 30+ DKFP/50+ FDFP evening could be in order for Bassitt in this homecoming match-up.

 

Lucas Giolito (RHP), CWS | DK: $7.7k, FD: $9.3k | vs. DET

I’m not sure if there’s much meat on the bone with his price over on FanDuel but, as unexciting as it seems, Giolito is worth a look as an SP2 candidate on DraftKings. Compared to previous years, it’s been a forgettable season for Gio, but not necessarily a bad one. His 5.07 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in 2022 have not looked great on paper, but he’s seemingly had some bad baseball luck based on underlying metrics like his 3.65 xFIP and 3.81 SIERA, which are both quite solid. In four starts against the Tigers this year, he has posted an impressive 28.9% kRate alongside a 1.16 WHIP and 3.05 xFIP. He is struggling to break past that 20 DKFP threshold but pitching isn’t great on this slate so, if he can pull out a 20 DKFP performance against a poor Detroit offense, I suppose we’ll take that. I’m sure you can sense my excitement about Giolito bursting through the screen.

Also Consider:

Jeffrey Springs (LHP), TB | DK: $8.2k, FD: $7.9k | vs. TOR

Aaron Nola (RHP), PHI | DK: $9.3k, FD: $10.3k | vs. ATL

Jake Odorizzi (RHP), ATL | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7.1k | @ PHI

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

San Diego Padres vs. Ryan Feltner (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Sean Manaea (LHP), SD

Non-Coors Stacks to Consider

New York Yankees vs. Rich Hill (LHP), BOS

The Yankees have been hitting lefty pitching extremely well over the last several games, and Rich Hill comes in with a 5.66 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, and .337 opp wOBA over his last nine starts dating back to July 1st. The Red Sox bullpen owns a 4.98 xFIP over the last two weeks, the second-worst mark in baseball. You know Aaron Judge is going for history every time he steps into the batter’s box but we’ll look for some big results from his supporting cast as well.

BOS Bullpen Rating: 4/10

Favorite NYY Bats: Aaron Judge, Josh Donaldson, Giancarlo Stanton | Sneaky Bat: Gleyber Torres (8% pOwn%)

Chicago White Sox vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), DET

The White Sox have done some solid damage against lefties at home this season, ranking 9th in the MLB with a .335 wOBA and 119 wRC+. In four September starts (22.1 IP), Rodriguez has posted a 6.04 ERA, 4.23 xFIP, .340 wOBA, and 2.0 HR/9 Rate. He pitched well in his last outing against these same White Sox, but seeing the same starting pitcher within the span of a week often works in the favor of the hitters. We’ll see if that comes to fruition this evening.

DET Bullpen Rating: 3/10

Favorite CWS Bats: Eloy Jimenez, Elvis Andrus, Yoan Moncada | Snekay Bat: AJ Pollock (1% pOwn%)

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Mitch White (RHP), TOR

Mitch White has faded down the stretch and comes into this game with a 1.82 WHIP and 9.00 ERA across his last five starts. The Rays are a tough team to predict as they always seem to hover around league average in nearly every offensive category and nothing about their lineup ever feels too appealing. They did face White in his last start 10 days ago and managed seven hits and three runs, and they poured on 12 hits and 10 runs on the Blue Jays last night. The Toronto bullpen has shown some struggles of their own, as well, with a 5.37 ERA, 4.30 xFIP, and 1.39 WHIP over the last two weeks (ranking bottom 10 in all three categories).

TOR Bullpen Rating: 4/10

Favorite TB Bats: Randy Arozarena, Wander Franco, Jonathan Aranda | Sneaky Bat: Manuel Margot (1% pOwn%)

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $6.2k, FD: $5.4k | vs. Rich Hill (LHP), BOS

2B Jose Altuve | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4k | vs. Dean Kremer (RHP), BAL

3B Manny Machado | DK: $5.4k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Ryan Feltner (RHP), COL

3B/SS Bobby Witt Jr. | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Marco Gonzales (LHP), SEA

SS Wander Franco | DK: $4.3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Mitch White (RHP), TOR

3B Yoan Moncada | DK: $4.2k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), DET

1B Nathaniel Lowe | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Cody Morris (RHP), CLE

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

SS Elvis Andrus | DK: $4k, FD: $3k | vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), DET

3B Elehuris Montero | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Sean Manaea (LHP), SD

OF Yonathan Daza | DK: $3k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Sean Manaea (LHP), SD

1B Albert Pujols | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.9k | Andrew Heaney (LHP), LAD

1B Vinnie Pasquantino | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Marco Gonzales (LHP), SEA

1B/2B Jonathan Aranda | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Mitch White (RHP), TOR

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Aaron Judge to Record the First Hit | +600 (FanDuel) | 1.0 Unit

Going with a bit of a long-shot prop here but it is a nice payout on an event that could easily happen. We’ll need Gerrit Cole to pitch a hitless half-inning to open up this game, then we get to Judge leading off for the Yankees in the bottom of the inning. He’s raking with a .458 AVG over his last 20 games and something tells me that veteran Rich Hill will actually throw Judge some pitches in the zone. For a 6/1 payout, I’ll happily throw a small wager on this prop.

Corey Seager OVER 1.5 Total Bases | +110 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

Seager is on a nice little run at the plate late in the season. He has recorded multiple bases in four consecutive games and six of his last eight. Lefty Rangers bats are looking strong today against rookie RHP Cody Morris. It’s only a 32-plate appearance sample size, but Morris has allowed a huge .428 wOBA and .357 ISO to LHBs. Good shot at an XBH for Seager in this match-up.

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!