Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 9/22 | A Windy Thursday Loaded With Aces!

September 22, 2022

Big time arm talent is on the board today so we'll be digging in deep as we try to find the best options at the plate!

Penned By: Ryan Humphries, @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Keep an eye on the clock today as the main slate will get underway earlier than usual at 6:35 ET! It’s an eight-game slate on the docket this evening. Despite its middling size, this slate is loaded to the brim with quality pitching. I also can’t recall the last slate where we saw so many low totals, with every game being pinned with either a 7, 7.5, or 8 run O/U. So we’ll try to find the right bats on a slate that figures to be “offensively challenged.” Let’s get it!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

There are no PPD/delay threats on this slate, but several wind conditions are worth mentioning.

CHC @ PIT (6:35 ET, 7.5 O/U): Winds OUT to center at 10+ mph.

MIL @ CIN (6:40 ET, 7.5 O/U): Winds OUT to right at 10 mph.

HOU @ BAL (7:05 ET, 7 O/U): Strong 15+ mph winds but they’re mostly blowing left to right, perhaps a bit IN from left at times.

ATL @ PHI (7:15 ET, 7.5 O/U): 10-15 mph winds blowing left to right and IN from left at times.

BOS @ NYY (7:15 ET, 8 O/U): Winds blowing OUT to right at 10-15 mph.

CLE @ CWS (8:10 ET, 7 O/U): Winds blowing OUT to right at 10-15 mph.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Shane Bieber (RHP), CLE | DK: $10.1k, FD: $10.8k | @ CWS

For a slate this size, it truly is an embarrassment of riches in the pitching department. There is a strong case to be made for the top six most expensive pitchers (Verlander, Bieber, Urias, Woodruff, Gallen, Fried) and, to some degree, we’re just splitting hairs when highlighting one guy over the others. But we’ll start with Bieber who has been on the same sort of pitching hot streak that won him a Cy Young award in 2020. Across his last 10 starts (69.2 IP), Bieber has boasted a 1.68 ERA, 2.53 xFIP, 0.85 WHIP, .199 opp AVG, and a 28.1% kRate with only a 3.4% BB%. Bieber scored below 23 DKFP/43 FDFP just once in that 10-game stretch (oddly enough, that game was against the White Sox). The White Sox can hit for a decent average but they don’t provide a ton of power in their lineup. Against RHPs in the last two weeks, they have posted a very average 96 wRC+ along with a lofty 25.1% kRate (10th highest). Given the form he is in, Bieber is a stand-out option for today even with the saturated stable of ace-caliber pitchers on the board.

Brandon Woodruff (RHP), MIL | DK: $9.2k, FD: $10.5k | @ CIN

There is some risk here, given the great hitter’s park that Woodruff will be pitching in, along with some 10 mph winds blowing out toward right field. However, Woodruff has been putting on some massive performances recently, and the Brewers are in the hunt for a wild card bid, so they really need him to bring his best stuff to the ballpark today. Woodruff has faced this Reds team three times this season. He has a 12 K performance and an 11 K performance in two of those games. The Reds have been a bit difficult to strike out recently with only a 19.2% kRate vs. RHPs in the L2Wks. However, they rank last in the MLB with a 71 wRC+ in that same span. If you want to save some salary by dropping down from Verlander or Bieber, then Woodruff should be a prime candidate to go to today.

Hayden Wesneski (RHP), CHC | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.1k | @ PIT

Wesneski only has three MLB appearances to his name (15.1 IP) with one start, but he has looked great in that short time. Obviously, it is a small sample size, but he is rocking a 2.30 ERA, 3.00 xFIP, 0.70 WHIP, and an impressive 30.5% kRate. Given his 10.5% SwStr%, that kRate will surely level out and he also hasn’t faced the stiffest of competition (CIN, SF, COL). Pittsburgh isn’t some mighty offense either but this will be Wesneski’s first test on the road in the MLB. The Pirates have been above average against RHPs lately, given their 107 wRC+ (L2Wks, ranks 12th) but they’ve posted a 25.8% kRate in those two weeks as well. Wesneski is a GPP gamble but someone to consider if you want to separate from the huge amount of ownership that the top-priced cluster of pitchers will garner.

Also Consider:

Justin Verlander (RHP), HOU | DK: $10.7k, FD: $11.1k | @ BAL

Julio Urias (LHP), LAD | DK: $9.7k, FD: $10.3k | vs. ARI

Max Fried (LHP), ATL | DK: $8.3k, FD: $10.6k | @ PHI

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Cleveland Guardians vs. Johnny Cueto (RHP), CWS

As you might expect, it is a tough day when it comes to pinpointing offenses to stack up but we’ll lead off with the Guardians. On a slate that is filled with high-end pitching, Cueto ranks last among all starters on the slate with his 4.43 xFIP and he also owns the lowest kRate (15.4%) and SwStr% (7.4%). The Guardians are a notoriously difficult team to strike out (15.9% kRate vs. RHPs L2Wks, lowest in MLB) and, lately, they’ve been hitting well above their season averages against RHPs. In the last two weeks, they’ve posted a .271 AVG (ranks 4th), .340 wOBA (6th), and 122 wRC+ (8th). Top to bottom, there isn’t a vast amount of power in this lineup but perhaps some of those 10-15 mph winds blowing out to right field could help carry a couple of additional baseballs over the fence. The Guardians have accumulated 29 runs over their last three games including 18 runs against the White Sox during the first two games of this series.

CWS Bullpen Rating: 6/10

Favorite CLE Bats: Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor, Andres Gimenez | Sneaky Bat: Steven Kwan (7% pOwn%)

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Hunter Greene (RHP), CIN

Hunter Greene has an explosive fastball and has an excellent 29.8% kRate on the season. He’s also a guy that opposing offenses can do some damage against, especially when the game is being played at the extremely hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark. At home this season at GABP, Greene has pitched to a 5.40 ERA, 4.32 xFIP, 1.41 WHIP, with a high 2.05 HR/9 Rate. His kRate also dips to a 23.0% kRate at home (versus a 33.7% kRate on the road). The Brewers are an above-average offense against RHPs and they have an excellent track record in this ballpark this season. In 248 plate appearances at GABP, the Brewers have combined for a .348 wOBA, .271 ISO, and 148 wRC+. The 10 mph winds blowing out to right field is just an added boost to the Brewers' stack potential.

CIN Bullpen Rating: 4/10

Favorite MIL Bats: Willy Adames, Hunter Renfroe, Rowdy Tellez | Sneaky Bat: Tyrone Taylor (15% pOwn%)

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Rays Bullpen

Without any obvious teams to stack up on this slate, ownership will likely be spread out quite a bit. Aside from Vlad Jr., no other Blue Jays bat is registering over an 8% pOwn%. They’ll be facing the Rays who look to deploy a bullpen approach on the mound today with LHP Ryan Yarbrough (4.33 ERA, 4.71 xFIP, 1.34 WHIP) expected to serve as the bulk reliever. There is no telling when these Blue Jays bats are going to pop off but, as we saw a couple of days ago in their 18-11 win over the Phillies, when they *do* pop off, it’s usually in a big way. The stakes are high in this game as well with both teams looking to hang on to an AL Wild Card bid.

TB Bullpen Rating: 6/10

Favorite TOR Bats: Vlad Guerrero Jr., George Springer, Bo Bichette | Sneaky Bat: Alejandro Kirk (3% pOwn%)

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $6.5k, FD: $5.3k | vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), BOS

OF Yordan Alvarez | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.7k | vs. Kyle Bradish (RHP), BAL

1B Freddie Freeman | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI

3B Jose Ramirez | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Johnny Cueto (RHP), CWS

3B Rafael Devers | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), NYY

OF George Springer | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Rays Bullpen

SS Willy Adames | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Hunter Greene (RHP), CIN

C Travis d’Arnaud | DK: $4.4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Ranger Suarez (LHP), PHI

OF Ian Happ | DK: $4.3k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Mitch Keller (RHP), PIT

SS Oneil Cruz | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3k | vs. Hayden Wesneski (RHP), CHC

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

1B Josh Naylor | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Johnny Cueto (RHP), CWS

2B/SS Zach McKinstry | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Mitch Keller (RHP), PIT

OF Oswaldo Cabrera | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), BOS

2B Rodolfo Castro | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Hayden Wesneski (RHP), CHC

OF Tyrone Taylor | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Hunter Greene (RHP), CIN

1B/2B Jonathan Aranda | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Willy Adames OVER 1.5 Total Bases | +110 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

Adames has been an XBH machine as of late and he has eight of his last 10 games. During that 10-game stretch, he has hit .444 with 10 XBH (five 2B, five HR). He’ll be stepping into the batter’s box at the best hitter’s park in the MLB not named “Coors Field” and, to make things even more enticing, there will be some 10 mph winds blowing out to right field as well. At plus money odds, this is an easy prop bet to pull the trigger on.

Aaron Judge OVER 1.5 Total Bases | -127 (Caesars) | 2.0 Units

What is there to even think about with this prop anymore? Is it guaranteed to hit? Of course not. But Judge has cashed this bet by hitting for multiple bases in 13 of his last 16 games! I don’t even care if he’s 0-for-15 against Red Sox starter Michael Wacha during his career. As long as the odds on this prop stay somewhat close to even money, I’ll keep rolling with it until Judge’s historic season ends.

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!