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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

Like, Subscribe, and Comment @ LineStar YouTube channel! You never know when we’ll shout you out or give you something cool. New episodes drop Mon-Fri feat. hosts Shannon Sommerville & Tyler Wiemann! Every episode is quick, informative, & easy to watch.

Main Slate Rundown 🏟

TGIF! We’ll have an 11-game MLB main slate to close out the work week! This slate represents the penultimate regular season Friday slate before the postseason arrives. Cherish these large slates while ya can! I’ve got a busy schedule today so this newsletter will be short and sweet -- directly to the point. Let’s get it and best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• ATL @ WAS (7:05 ET): Moderate chance for rain in the later innings. Expect them to get nine innings in as of now, but it’s not a 100% certainty. Winds blowing IN from right at 10+ mph with temps mostly in the upper-60s. Not the best hitting conditions but that’s a common theme this time of year as temperatures cool down.

• NYM @ PHI (7:05 ET): 10-15 mph winds IN from right. Low-60s temps.

• ARI @ NYY (7:05 ET): 10-15 mph winds IN from center. Low/mid-60s temps.

• BAL @ CLE (7:10 ET): 10 mph winds mostly IN from right, a bit right-to-left.

• LAA @ MIN (8:10 ET): Moderate chance of a rain delay throughout the evening. 10 mph winds IN from center/left.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Framber Valdez (LHP), HOU | DK: $10.2k, FD: $11.3k | vs. KC

Valdez has been a steady performer over the last month (5 starts, 34.0 IP), coming away with a 1.59 ERA, 3.48 xFIP, 0.94 WHIP, .179 opp AVG, and 22.9% kRate while averaging 23.5 DKFP/42.4 FDFP per game. Valdez has also covered seven full innings in four of his last five outings. He’ll be at home today where he has been a bit more reliable this season, procuring a 2.98 ERA, 2.99 xFIP, and 25.5% kRate (vs. 3.42 ERA, 3.77 xFIP, and 22.7% kRate away). The Royals have been hitting lefties well, overall, but Valdez just allowed zero earned runs across seven innings against them five days ago in Kansas City. The Royals now travel to Houston as the worst road offense in the MLB this season (3.52 runs/gm). Against LHPs on the road since the beginning of August (192 PA), Kansas City is hitting just .201 with a 66 wRC+ and 28.6% kRate. I don’t love it when pitchers face the same team in back-to-back starts, but there is enough going for Valdez here that he should be firmly on the DFS radar today.

Chris Sale (LHP), BOS | DK: $9.2k, FD: $9.2k | vs. CWS

Sale’s season has been a bit of a roller coaster but he finds himself in a great match-up today and has comparable upside to those pitchers that are more expensive than him on this slate. We know Sale brings plenty of K upside to the table and he ranks second on the slate with a 29.8% kRate. His 4.66 ERA may not be pretty, but a solid 3.68 xFIP suggests he has been the victim of some bad luck this season. We’ll also see if he can carry over some momentum from his previous start in which he racked up 10 Ks and 29.1 DKFP/49 FDFP on just 81 pitches. We mentioned how poorly the Royals have played on the road against lefties since August 1st above with Framber Valdez’s write-up. Well, in that same sample size, the White Sox have been notably worse -- .236 wOBA, .065 ISO, 46 wRC+, and 30.4% kRate. Sale has been tough to trust since returning from his most recent stint on the IL, but it’s certainly a prime match-up for him to meet or exceed expectations.

Sawyer Gipson-Long (RHP), DET | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.3k | @ OAK

Gipson-Long is set to make just his third big league start but he has thoroughly impressed through his first two MLB outings (2.70 ERA, 2.45 xFIP, 0.90 WHIP, 41.0% kRate, 21.3% SwStr%) and draws another plus match-up tonight. SGL had a solid MLB debut against the White Sox on Sept. 10th, but he was absolutely brilliant in his start against the Angels last Saturday, pitching five one-run innings with 11 (!) strikeouts where he forced an absurd 28.0% Swinging Strike Rate. Just like any MLB team, the A’s always have the potential to beat up any MLB pitcher, especially when we’re talking about a highly inexperienced guy. But that doesn’t negate the fact that they’re hitting just .210 with a subpar 83 wRC+ and 26.5% kRate against RHPs over the last two weeks. Gipson-Long may be due for some significant regression based on the 5.45 ERA and 2.08 HR/9 Rate that he posted in 34.2 IP in Triple-A this year, but we’ll see if he can build on his pair of impressive MLB outings in another positive match-up this evening.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Pablo Lopez (RHP), MIN | DK: $10.7k, FD: $11k | vs. LAA

Cole Ragans (LHP), KC | DK: $7.8k, FD: $9k | @ HOU

Touki Toussaint (RHP), CWS | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.5k | @ BOS

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Top Stacks

Atlanta Braves vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Tylor Megill (RHP), NYM

San Diego Padres vs. Dakota Hudson (RHP), STL

Leverage Stacks

Baltimore Orioles vs. Shane Bieber (RHP), CLE

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Luke Weaver (RHP), NYY

Extreme Leverage Stack

Oakland Athletics vs. Sawyer Gipson-Long (RHP), DET

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

SS Corey Seager, TEX | DK; $6.3k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Bryce Miller (RHP), SEA

OF Julio Rodriguez, SEA | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Dane Dunning (RHP), TEX

2B Jose Altuve, HOU | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Cole Ragans (LHP), KC

2B Ozzie Albies, ATL | DK: $5.8k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

OF Kyle Schwarber, PHI | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Tylor Megill (RHP), NYM

OF Juan Soto, SD | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Dakota Hudson (RHP), STL

OF Corbin Carroll, ARI | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4k | vs. Luke Weaver (RHP), NYY

3B Rafael Devers, BOS | DK: $5.2k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Touki Toussaint (RHP), CWS

OF JD Martinez, LAD | DK: $5k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Sean Manaea (LHP), SD

OF Brandon Nimmo, NYM | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Taijuan Walker (RHP), PHI

2B Zack Gelof, OAK | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Sawyer Gipson-Long (RHP), DET

OF Kerry Carpenter, DET | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3k | vs. Ken Waldichuk (LHP), OAK

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

2B Andres Gimenez, CLE | DK: $4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Dean Kremer (RHP), BAL

1B Ryan O’Hearn, BAL | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Shane Bieber (RHP), CLE

OF Tommy Pham, ARI | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Luke Weaver (RHP), NYY

OF Evan Carter, TEX | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3k | vs. Bryce Miller (RHP), SEA

C Bo Naylor, CLE | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Dean Kremer (RHP), BAL

OF Willi Castro, MIN | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Davis Daniel (RHP), LAA

C Luis Campusano, SD | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Dakota Hudson (RHP), STL

C Gabriel Moreno, ARI | DK: $3k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Luke Weaver (RHP), NYY

C Jake Rogers, DET | DK: $2.9k, FD: $3k | vs. Ken Waldichuk (LHP), OAK

1B Donovan Solano, MIN | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Davis Daniel (RHP), LAA

OF Johan Rojas, PHI | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Tylor Megill (RHP), NYM

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Bo Naylor MORE than 0.5 Total Bases

Sawyer Gipson-Long MORE than 5.5 Pitcher Strikeouts

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!